Chilean Elections and General Discussion. Municipal and Regional elections, October 27th, 2024

[oldtimer]

So the results of the first referendum, the first constituyente, the second referendum, the second constituyente and now the third referendum are all a decisive "get fxcked"

I still don’t understand why voters need to be asked THREE TIMES to pass one change of constitution though. Two times was enough, the third is redundant and makes no sense.

First vote - You say whether you want a constitutional change (yes/no) - ok, makes sense

Second vote - You pick the representatives who will write said constitution in case yes wins - ok, makes sense

What’s the point of a third vote to simply reaffirm what’s already implicit through both the first two votes? That vote is what it creates this never-ending loop where if voters refuse the constitution the person they picked chose, at least one referendum decision will eventually have to be disrespected.

I suppose the excess of democracy is to make sure whatever is written is the most consensual as possible? In that case just come up with a bland generic small text that all sides can be ok with and get this over with.

It's pigheadedness.

It's clear Chilean voters don't want any change.

[Flyersfan232]

what do this mean for the 2025 elections???

[kaoras]

what do this mean for the 2025 elections???

Most agree that this is bad for Kast but disagree on the effect on Matthei. Chile Vamos and Republicans started blaming one another, with Republicans blaming Matthei for not doing enough and CHV accusing republicans of dooming the whole thing.

[kaoras]

Vote breakdown by age:




Despite Boric unpopularity, the left retains its edge with the youth while the older generations remain polarized around Pinochet. That leaves the middle-aged as the most right-wing cohort.

That margin among women younger than 35 truly speaks of the role played by abortion.

[Peeperkorn]

It's amazing how Chilean society radically transformed in one or two decades from one of the most conservative in the Americas to one of the most liberal.

[kaoras]

I kind of appreciate Chile's consistent commitment to being 44% far right and 56% not (compare the 2021 presidential election and the 1988 plebiscite).

The three elections in question with identical margins:

1988 plebiscite on Pinochet


2021 presidential election


2023 plebiscite


It seems counterintuitive to the global #trendz but you can still see them in North Maule (bottom of the left side) and Biobío (top of the right side). The rural areas that trended "left" is a mix of obvious vote cohersion in 1988 and genuine trends like Aysén, Chiloé and Valparaíso.

I'll (probably) give a more detailed geographical analysis region by region in the next weeks since I'dont have much to do over the holidays.

[kaoras]

Good thing I put the (probably) in the last post lol. I still think I'll do it someday, but not before May (I have to finish my university thesis). For the same reason, I'll just update exclusively on electoral politics for the municipal and regional elections, which are easier and more fun to cover than day to day politics (Boric is still struggling, must be another day that ends in y)

Municipal and Regional elections will be held on October 27th of this year. There will be elected 345 mayors for 346 comunas (Cabo de Hornos and Antártica share the same mayor), 2252 concejales (city council members, each comuna has between 6 and 10 depending on population), 16 regional governors, and 302 regional council members.

Mayors are elected by FPTP in a single round. City and regional councils are elected by Open Lists PR, the same system as parliamentary elections. Governor elections have runoffs if no candidate clears 40% of the vote in the first round.

Parties and alliances can do primaries to decide their candidates for mayor and governors, if they do, those will be held on June 9th (with voluntary voting).

[kaoras]

The parties that support Boric government and the Democracia Cristiana reached an agreement to present a single list for mayoral elections. In 2021 they ran in 4 different lists!
Negotiations are still in early stage and the main sticking points are places where current mayors are term-limited and the parties of said mayors want to "hold the spot" / "el que tiene mantiene". Other notably controversy is in Santiago, where everyone knows that communist mayor Irací Hassler is DOA so PS presented their own pre-candidate, Ismael Calderón. There's no way the left will hold Santiago which is notorious for hating its incumbent, but a non-Irací candidacy would lose by less. PC has said that is open to doing primaries.

In the opposition, Chile Vamos and Republicanos will "coordinate" in the mayoral elections to take down the left (Pactos por omisión, standing down and supporting the other's candidate). Chile Vamos wanted to include Amarillos and Democrátas in this pact. Democrátas has even talked of joining Chile Vamos and create a new coalition (excluding Republicanos though) but this got muddied because Democrátas voted to allow discussion of the goverment's pension reform in the Chamber of Deputies.

[Oryxslayer]

Twice-former President Sebastián Piñera has died in a helicopter crash. I'll let others write eulogies if they wish, his recent legacy has not been anywhere close to good though.  RIP.

It'll be jarring to see who comes out now to try and claim some semblance of a moral high ground,  and how many of those people were against him after the Protests, COVID, constitutional debacles, and much more...

So...umm....yeah this totally won't spawn conspiracy theories given Chilean history...

[Red Velvet]

Why would anyone even bother to kill old news like Piñera? lol

Accidents in regards to flying are actually quite more “common” when it comes to private jets or helicopters because the pilots often aren’t as trained or safety measures aren’t strictly followed like it happens with regular commercial flights with tons of passengers.

It’s been quite a long time I don’t hear about a commercial plane falling down but news of a private jet or helicopter going down are quite common to me. A Brazilian early presidential for the 2014 election, a supreme court minister and a Sertanejo music celebrity died after their private jets went down like that all in the last ten years.

[kaoras]

The infamous Black and White pollster asked about the municipal elections. 40% said that they would vote for an opposition candidate in the mayoral elections, 32% for a pro-government one.

Chile Vamos keep insisting on creating a grand opposition alliance that includes Demócratas/Amarillos and Republicans to counter the left's unity list. Demócratas seem open to be included in Chile Vamos alliance but they are still reluctant to be allied with Republicans. Republicans in the other hand prefer to do "omission pacts" (standing down in favour of one another) instead.

If they do a grand alliance in the end they should call it "Coalición Demócratica" (CODE) and the Left's pact should be called "Unión Progresista" (UP)

On the left, there is a lot of uncertainty regarding the criteria of "El que tiene mantiene" (if a party holds a comuna, then the candidate for said place should belong to the same party). There are a lot of places where this seems inconvenient due to incumbent's unpopularity or local factors. This is especially true in Santiago (the comuna of Santiago that covers the city center, there's no actual metropolitan authority in the whole city), where everyone with common sense knows that communist Irací Hassler will lose badly. There is a PS pre-candidate that is pushing for primaries but the PS leadership is reluctant to support that bid because it could open a pandora box in other PS-held comunas like San Bernardo (there is also the fact that even with another candidate there is a 90% chance that they are going to lose Santiago anyway). Funnily enough, Irací Hassler herself doesn't seem to be too bothered by the idea of doing primaries since she thinks that she would easily win those.

FA parties will also do a unification plebiscite among their members to create a single party. They want to have the fusion ready for the municipal elections

[Estrella]

How “national” are the local elections? Like, how much do people usually think about the government when they’re deciding who to vote for?

[kaoras]

How “national” are the local elections? Like, how much do people usually think about the government when they’re deciding who to vote for?

Quite a bit. Of course in the case of mayors local factors trump everything else but people are much less forgiving of so-so incumbents when they are part of the unpopular ruling coalition. That's why a heavy defeat is expected for the government.

[kaoras]

The negotiations for the left unity list continue. There are still some disagreements over "el que tiene mantiene" but most likely they will define that on a case-by-case basis and do primaries in some places. The DC and the Radical party committees have confirmed that they will be part of the joint list in mayorships and governors, but the Radicals will present a separate list for the local and regional council elections.

Party strength in Chile is best gauged by the council elections because they are the only elections where the big parties have candidates everywhere and almost nobody knows anyone so they are more inclined to vote according to party sympathy. Big political alliances also usually run several different lists in council elections to run more candidates.

On the right, ex education minister turned fire breathing hard-right pundit Marcela Cubillos announced that she will run as an independent candidate for Las Condes. Republicanos also announced that they would present a candidate there, putting incumbent mayor Daniela Peñalosa (UDI) in a difficult situation. Many figures of Chile Vamos are calling this dispute a "distraction", saying that the right should focus on the comunas ruled by the left.

Demócratas and Amarillos will have a joint list for council elections and will (very likely) be in the same list for mayors as Chile Vamos. Neither Demócratas nor Republicanos want to be in the same pact as each other but seem open to "pactos por omisión". Amarillos and Demócratas are also exploring pacts with PDG (lmao) and Partido Social Cristiano (which are even more extreme than REP, they are evangelical nutjobs, so again, lol).

Also, members Convergencia Social and Revolución Demócratica approved the merge between them and the FA will become a single party. Comunes will not be part of the fusion initially because they are in process of being dissolved by the Servel for being extremely incompetent at declaring election expenses, but they will either merge later or their members will join the new unified party. This is the culmination of a long process of mergers between the internal movements of FA (without counting all the parties that left the alliance). This is for the best, if only because it was ridiculous to have 2 parties whose only difference was the university in which their leaders studied (Universidad de Chile for CS and Universidad Católica for RD). Comunes does have a different voter base (they actually manage to appeal to poor people) so it will be interesting to see what will happen to them in the end.

[kaoras]

Updates:

In the municipal elections, both the left and the right are deciding how to deal with the independent candidates. In the last elections, there were over 100 independent mayors elected, even though some have very obvious leaning. This is on top of the candidates that want to run this time around. For the left-ones, the pro-government forces want them to sign a "common program" and commit to not criticise the government that much. In the right, they are pondering whether to do polls, and primaries or try to get them to run in the parliamentary elections next year instead.

In political news, the right broke the senate administrative agreement. In 2022 the left and UDI+EVOPOLI agreed to rotate the presidency each year. This year it was PPD's turn but chaos within their caucus and the undying hatred between Ximena Rincón and Yasna Provoste caused Democrátas and the rest of the right to support an RN candidate. (The problem was that at the time of the agreement Democratas was still part of the DC and thus there was controversy if the comitees spot belonged to the DC as a party or to Ximena Rincón as an individual). This has solidified the alliance between Demócratas and the right.

On top of that, in the O'Higgins region Chile Vamos, Republicanos, PDG and Amarillos agreed to present join candidates, although it remains to be seen if an opposition grand alliance with single candidates in each comuna can be reached.

[kaoras]

I forgot to mention that the electoral service SERVEL asked to do the elections over two days, like what happened during the pandemic. With compulsory voting and 4 simultaneous ballots with tons of candidates, SERVEL calculates that there won't be enough time for everyone to vote. The government accepted the idea and will present a bill to do so.

This idea is unpopular in the polls and many right-wing figures have rejected this, claiming there is going to be "mass fraud". This isn't limited to the Republicans, UDI Evelyn Matthei (who very obviously is going to run for president) also said that "fraud will be impossible to control". Nevermind she herself was elected mayor in a 2-day election in 2021.

Trumpism has really infected all of the world but may this serve to remind everyone that Kast's existence doesn't make Chile Vamos suddenly not awful or more "reasonable".

[Mike88]

What about early voting? Wasn't it put on the table?

[kaoras]

What about early voting? Wasn't it put on the table?

Chile doesn't have any tradition of early voting and due to historical reasons, the only modality that could gain acceptance is in-person early voting. Until 1958, vote buying (cohecho) was extremely widespread, especially in rural areas where landlords controlled the vote of the peasants. This changed with the introduction of the "Cedula Unica". No longer could the parties print and distribute their own ballots, everyone voted in a unique state-printed ballot and in a secret chamber. This has made politicians and the public extremely hostile to ideas like mail voting since it sounds similar to that era.

Anyway, no one has proposed any kind of early voting, some people have said that what Servel should do instead is expand the number of precincts and polling places. I actually think that would be a better idea because Chile objectively has few polling places but the fraud talk is insane.

[Mike88]

What about early voting? Wasn't it put on the table?

Chile doesn't have any tradition of early voting and due to historical reasons, the only modality that could gain acceptance is in-person early voting. Until 1958, vote buying (cohecho) was extremely widespread, especially in rural areas where landlords controlled the vote of the peasants. This changed with the introduction of the "Cedula Unica". No longer could the parties print and distribute their own ballots, everyone voted in a unique state-printed ballot and in a secret chamber. This has made politicians and the public extremely hostile to ideas like mail voting since it sounds similar to that era.

Anyway, no one has proposed any kind of early voting, some people have said that what Servel should do instead is expand the number of precincts and polling places. I actually think that would be a better idea because Chile objectively has few polling places but the fraud talk is insane.

Yeah, that would also make sense. How many voters, average of course, is normal by precinct in Chile?

[kaoras]

What about early voting? Wasn't it put on the table?

Chile doesn't have any tradition of early voting and due to historical reasons, the only modality that could gain acceptance is in-person early voting. Until 1958, vote buying (cohecho) was extremely widespread, especially in rural areas where landlords controlled the vote of the peasants. This changed with the introduction of the "Cedula Unica". No longer could the parties print and distribute their own ballots, everyone voted in a unique state-printed ballot and in a secret chamber. This has made politicians and the public extremely hostile to ideas like mail voting since it sounds similar to that era.

Anyway, no one has proposed any kind of early voting, some people have said that what Servel should do instead is expand the number of precincts and polling places. I actually think that would be a better idea because Chile objectively has few polling places but the fraud talk is insane.

Yeah, that would also make sense. How many voters, average of course, is normal by precinct in Chile?

It varies wildly. In urban areas, most precincts have between 4000-6000 voters, but in Santiago, some precincts have almost 10.000 voters. In each precinct there are several "mesas" with 400 voters each.

[Mike88]

What about early voting? Wasn't it put on the table?

Chile doesn't have any tradition of early voting and due to historical reasons, the only modality that could gain acceptance is in-person early voting. Until 1958, vote buying (cohecho) was extremely widespread, especially in rural areas where landlords controlled the vote of the peasants. This changed with the introduction of the "Cedula Unica". No longer could the parties print and distribute their own ballots, everyone voted in a unique state-printed ballot and in a secret chamber. This has made politicians and the public extremely hostile to ideas like mail voting since it sounds similar to that era.

Anyway, no one has proposed any kind of early voting, some people have said that what Servel should do instead is expand the number of precincts and polling places. I actually think that would be a better idea because Chile objectively has few polling places but the fraud talk is insane.

Yeah, that would also make sense. How many voters, average of course, is normal by precinct in Chile?

It varies wildly. In urban areas, most precincts have between 4000-6000 voters, but in Santiago, some precincts have almost 10.000 voters. In each precinct there are several "mesas" with 400 voters each.

Hmm. Interesting. It's the same system as in my country. 400 voters by "mesa" is not bad, in my country is around 700 "por mesa" or "secção". But, I agree with you, opening a few more mesas by precinct would be much more practical.

[Flyersfan232]

Where is the presidential race?

[kaoras]

Where is the presidential race?

I'm not covering it because at this stage is an exercise in futility, as presidential nominees Lavín / Jadue can tell you.

However the polls show Evelyn Matthei far ahead with Kast far behind and down a lot since the latest plebiscite. The left vote remains very undecided and fragmented, Bachelet got a bump after the plebiscite because the right made it look like she was responsible for "Against" victory but it has receded as she keeps insisting that she won't run. Interior minister Carolina Tohá (PPD), government spokeswoman Camila Vallejo (PC), and Metropolitan Region governor Claudio Orrego (ex-DC) have been floated as potential candidates for the government.

[kaoras]

There has been a lot of activity on the electoral front in the last week.

The big left alliance materialized. All the parties in the "Government's Alliance"+ DC will have a single candidate for mayors and agreed to do legal primaries in 48 comunas. The will keep negotiating for the government elections. The left returned to their old tradition of covering themselves in glory with generic nonsense names and the pact will be called "Contigo Chile Mejor"

Amarillos, Demócratas and Sentido Común (a party born out of the remnants of PRI) will have a pact called "Centro Demócratico"

On the right, Chile Vamos will do primaries in 20 comunas and is still trying to coordinate with Demócratas/Amarillos and Republicanos, but they have spent most of their time fighting over Las Condes and Santiago. In Santiago it appeared that ex-presidential candidate Sebastián Sichel was going to run, but Republicanos and the evangelical "Partido Social Cristiano" didn't like him, the latter proposing the candidacy of Aldo Duque. Sichel ended up withdrawing after most of Chile Vamos started supporting former RN-president Mario Desbordes instead, which is seen favorably by the far right. The UDI has said that so far he is the candidate of RN, however.

Polls showed that Sichel was more competitive against communist incumbent Irací Hassler but honestly, I think anyone would do it. She is stuck at 30% in the polls and I don't see her getting much more than that.

On political news, after weeks in which it seemed certain that the government was going to lose the presidency of the Chamber of Deputies after Demócratas broke their agreement to support a Communist Party member for president, the right managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and communist Karol Cariola won the presidency by 1 vote, 76-75 against Demócratas deputy Johanna Perez which had the support of Chile Vamos and Republicanos. What remained of PDG (2 deputies) managed to split even more, with Gaspar Rivas running as VP in Cariola's slate and the other deputy voting for Johanna Perez. Rivas, was expelled of the PDG for that leaving them with only a single deputy.

Republicanos immediately censured the Chamber's leadership because they said that the government bribed Rivas or something but this motion was defeated today, despite Chile Vamos voting for it.

[kaoras]

These are the pacts for the municipal elections, so far. Again, The left really covered themselves in glory with the names of the councillors's lists.