Chilean Elections and General Discussion. Municipal and Regional elections, October 27th, 2024

[Lumine]

RN senators (and it seems that most of the Right) will oppose a new Convention, instead they want Congress to name an "expert committee".

So this will end up either with no change at all or the same undemocratic way of all the previous constitutions in Chile.

To be fair, the sentiment appears to be more widespread than one would imagine, it's reported even center-left parliamentarians are wary of another convention and the polls, surprisingly, suggest potential support for a committee of experts and/or distrust of repeating the same process, perhaps out of fatigue.

Personally I don't think it's the right way to go - and others in the right have expressed it as such -, but there are motives to think even the public is not yet convinced the Convention 2.0 is necessarily the best option. It's not like an expert committee automatically means "no change", though I think it's a given any future constitutional document is going to be far more grounded in reality compared to what was voted on Sunday.

[Lumine]

Expert committee polls well because is an undefined thing where people can put their best hopes (just like the convention full of independents once upon a time). I oppose that out of democratic principle and because is not easy to exactly determine what counts as an expert. Is not even a guarantee to be an improvement, two of the most hated constituents, Atria and Bassa are definitely experts by almost any definition of the word. _{Also, this country fully deserves a new convention full of PDG "experts"}

Some people on the left are having second thought because they think (correctly) that they will have worse results than in the last elections, but that is just opportunism. And let's be real, the chances of the right supporting any non cosmetic change are just 0, in the convention they voted against everything they said they now totally support like the end of the subsidiary state.

We'll have to agree to disagree there, I think it's been made plainly clear that there are proposed changes with enough support that are not just cosmetic. It's just not going to be a complete overhaul of the system like some hoped for.

In any case, we have the first post-plebiscite Cadem poll. Some key points:

-Boric Approval: 33% (-5) / 60% (+6)

-60% support the Cabinet reshuffle, with additional questions suggesting people believe it will help the government in a number of issues.

-Interior Vice-Minister Monsalve now the most popular member of the Cabinet (71% approval), right behind Finance Minister Marcel (68% approval). Quite a boon to PS.

-Reasons to vote Approve, first mention (paraphrasing): Need for structural changes (34%), social rights (32%), ending Pinochet's constitution (17%), and so on.

-Reasons to vote Reject, first mention (paraphrasing): Disapproval of constituent process (21%), Plurinationality (16%), Disapproval of President Boric (12%), Uncertainity or fear caused by new Constitution (12%), Restrictions to private property and individual freedoms (11%), and so on.

-Should we have a new Constituent process?: Yes 67% (-10) / No 33% (+13)

-Reform vs. New Constitution: New Constitution 50% / Reform 46%

-Mechanism for a new Constitution: Mixed Convention 48% / Fully elected Convention 27% / Congress + Designated Experts 20%

-Electoral System for a new Convention: Gender Parity (77/22); Indigenous seats by population (57/33), lists of independent candidates (30/60)

[Lumine]

An agreement has been reached! Took over 100 days of talks, but apparently a blueprint for the new constituent process is due to be released within half an hour or so.

Rumor has it that it will be a "Constitutional Council" (name unconfirmed), fully elected, 50 members, using the electoral system for the Senate (open list D'Hondt, between 2-5 per region); which will work alongside 24 designated experts - appointed by Congress - that will have some sort of overseer role, preparing a constitutional project that the Council will then revise and work on. There's talk of a 3/5's quorum, it's not entirely clear yet how powerful the 24 experts will be in regards to the final text.

I was rather despairing of the deadlock, so if confirmed, great news.

[Lumine]

3 deputies of PDG resigned Yovana Ahumada, Víctor Pino y Roberto Arroyo over the refusal of the party to sign the constitutional accord and because the party didn't do anything over Gaspar Rivas calling them "conchesumares" (mother*ckers). However, they will remain in the PDG caucus.

This is honestly schizophrenic because they are the faction closer to the Right that voted with them in the election of the Deputies Chamber president and supposedly were closer to the party leadership.

Really funny anyhow.

I don't claim to understand the PDG - does anyone? even Parisi? - but it seems there's like a four-way struggle between the right-leaning deputies (Ahumada and company), the left-leaning deputies (and Rivas, who I think defies any possible labels), the current party leadership (who, it seems, are dead set on staying in post and avoiding transparency), and Parisi, who... well, I really don't know.

It really is the right-wing Lista del Pueblo 2.0: this time with more chaos.

[Lumine]

I rather endorse what Kaoras said, the differences between pueblo/gente/ciudadanos o ciudadanía shouldn't be all that stark, but they do carry substantial political meaning through their usage.

In the case of the PDG, as I understand it the use of "Gente" is actually a direct - though not formally admitted, I think -  response to the Lista del Pueblo, in the hopes of pulling off a similar marketing ploy. They probably figured it was a useful way to achieve mass appeal and stake a populist claim without having a name that implied ideology or sounded right out of a random word generator.

As to "ciudadania", we of course had the centrist to (barely) center-left Ciudadanos (2015-2022) as a political party, a renaming of Andrés Velasco's - the former Finance Minister and 2013 independent presidential candidate in the Nueva Mayoria primaries - party "Fuerza Pública". Rather predictably, it only appealed to centrist liberals in Santiago (in the wealthy communes, that is), which as we can all agree are not a major demographic. Never got more than 0,5% of the vote and got dissolved.

[Lumine]

I assume this was an (even more failed than the original) attempt to copy the Spanish party with the same name, yes?

Pretty much! The change took place in 2015 - right before the Spanish election in which C's had the first breakthrough -, and Velasco drew explicit parallels between his movement and Rivera. It was also a better name than the other alternative they voted on, which was to call themselves... Plural. In general, Chilean politicians have no idea how to name parties.

En el equipo de Velasco coinciden en que hay semejanzas con su símil español: ambos movimientos se catalogan de liberales de centro y tienen un discurso de combatir la “vieja política” y se presentan como alternativa a los dos principales bloques históricos representados por la centroderecha y la centroizquierda en cada país.

In Velasco's team there's agreement that there are similarities with their Spanish counterpart: both movements view themselves as centrist liberals, have a discourse of fighting "old politics", and stand as an alternative to the two main blocs represented by the center-right and center-left in each country.

Fun fact: 2021 Chile Vamos nominee Sebastián Sichel came from Ciudadanos, and left the party alongside the right-wing after a botched leadership election. Our Ciudadanos, however, made a point in always siding with the center-left (or rather, the Christian Democrats). Rumor has it that after the first round in 2017, Sebastian Piñera offered Velasco a ministry (said to have been Foreign Affairs) and Velasco turned him down, refusing to endorse him or Guillier.

[Lumine]

The government has gotten itself in quite a crisis over the past two weeks, as President Boric decided to issue presidential pardons for a dozen people convicted of various offenses during the 2019-2020 protests (plus Jorge Mateluna, a leftist former guerilla). Aside from the controversy of it - it undermined the Interior Minister and killed ongoing talks with the opposition regarding security and crime measures -, the crisis developed further when it emerged there had been several irregularities and/or lack of proper info and context during the process, and that several of those pardoned had extensive criminal records prior to 2019.

Thus far, President Boric has already sacrificed Marcela Rios, the Justice Minister - already on the chopping block due to an unsuccessful tenure -, who is undergoing impeachment in Congress (Giorgio Jackson, the President's closest friend and political ally, is also facing impeachment due to unrelated causes). The government has done its best to move away from the crisis, but a series of very unfortunate - to put it mildly - public statements have kept the pardon controversy on the headlines. The disapproval rating for the government hit 70% for the first time (CADEM poll, so treat with some caution), so... they're not having the best start for the year.

_________

Also, the new Constituent process sailed through Congress! This in itself isn't a surprise, but it was a far smoother process than expected despite dedicated attempts - by a number of dissident parliamentarians, both on the right and left - to wreck it via amendments. Those parties that signed the new agreement proved to be rather ruthless in pushing it through, so we get the following calendar:

-January: The Expert Council is voted upon by Congress.
-March 6th: Expert Council starts to work.
-May 7th: Constituent Council elections.
-June 7th: Council starts to work, based on the previous work by the Expert Council.
-December 17th: Plebiscite.

So it all goes well, we could end up the year with a new Constitution. On a personal basis I'm optimistic about the whole thing, but there's absolutely no guarantee Reject (this time powered by the disgruntled right AND the disgruntled left) wins again. I dare say the process and its perception may be more vital than the eventual text itself.

Negotiations are ongoing regarding the Constituent elections, and it's starting to become clear that the thesis of unitary lists for the government and the opposition (so as not to lose seats due to D'hondt rewarding unity) looks like a very distant possibility.

From the government, there's pressure from Apruebo Dignidad and the Socialist for unity, and much resistance from the more center-left areas (PR, PL, PPD). It's likely that we'll see a list for Apruebo Dignidad, and one from the old Concertación (including the rump Christian Democrats).

On the right, the Partido Republicano (PRep) has led the charge against the accord and the relationship with Chile Vamos has become severely strained, which makes it likely that we'll see separate lists (the Republicans on one side, RN, UDI and Evópoli on the other).

On the "center", Amarillos will not be taking part in the election, they have struggled massively to gather signatures to form a party, and don't seem keen to run as independents in one of the main lists. It's not entirely clear what Demócratas will do, and the same goes to PDG. To add further uncertainty, Franco Parisi has apparently solved his judicial situation, and is likely to make his return to Chile.

[Lumine]

The ex-Concertacion can make do without PL (though they're likely to get a seat due to strength in Arica), but they're ____ed without PS. Particularly now that the DC is such a hollow shell they're actually drafting Andres Zaldivar to run in May.

I actually think unity lists are overrated since some voters would balk from the whole left or whole right package, but the DC-PPD-PR list is going to get steamrolled. Their only hope would be that mandatory voting suddenly produces moderate voters who didn't bother showing up before.

[Lumine]

Also, I read on Twitter that PDG pact will be "with the people" (ie running alone), which would be even more trollish. Not unlikely given that someone in the press would have some scoops about a pact with Republicanos but so far there isn't any.

...god I hate PDG and their brand of populism.

I'm going to be miserable then they have that planned circus of a Carter-Jiles-Parisi presidential primary.

[Lumine]

Yesterday the governmentt suffered a heavy legislative defeat, the Chamber of Deputies reject the idea to legislate their Tax Reform with 73 votes in favor of doing so and 71 against (quorum was 78). The governmentt could insist in the Senate but they would need 2/3 and that is almost impossible, so they are assessing what to do (they can't present the same project until next year)

Hacienda minister Mario Marcel lambasted the opposition:

Who will celebrate today? We see that the parties to the right of the political spectrum will celebrate. I am sure that those who evade taxes and those who advise them will celebrate, because they will have at least one more full year to be able to continue using the same tax avoidance mechanisms (...) We will surely also have a celebration of big capital, which will no longer be subject to wealth tax. Surely the lobbyists will also celebrate (...)

The opposition criticized the government for not negotiating with them and said some platitudes about how the reform was bad for the middle class and small business (it isn't, according to OCDE, but they have to say that obviously)

This reform was supposed to finance other governmentt goals such as pension reform and so on. Key to the failure was the absence of humanist and ecologist deputies of the chamber over an incident between Education Minister and an ecologist deputy yesterday.

Ultimately, no one forced the government to try and survive that vote by gambling on the same extremely narrow majority they've relied on thus far, and no one forced them either to postpone the real negotiation until the Senate by assuming the House would be the easy part. I also distinctly recall Boric and company doing the exact same thing for which they are now pretending to be morally outraged.

It also doesn't help that the response has been to either torch those with whom they claim they want to make a deal... or blame Piñera for the whole thing (?) As if he of all people had the power to give marching orders to Congressmen.

On the bright side, it's yet another government misstep that may end up being beneficial to the economic outlook and confidence.

Also, cabinet reshuffle likely to happen tomorrow! Should be interesting to see.

[Lumine]

It also doesn't help that the response has been to either torch those with whom they claim they want to make a deal... or blame Piñera for the whole thing (?) As if he of all people had the power to give marching orders to Congressmen

Oh, so you guys have your own version of the "Ah, pero Macri..." argument so popular with kirchnerists over here?

Oh yeah. Mind you, Piñera does have it coming from time to time, it's just that in this case it's absolutely bonkers.

From what I see in Argentina, the "pero Macri..." seems to be always insane.

[Lumine]

Crime and security issues have now firmly seized the political agenda, and with a month to go until the election this is very much not good news for the government. We've had two Carabineros (police officers) killed on the line of duty, which is not something we're really used to. If we add to that a continued spike in violence and crime, you get a perception of crisis that has had the government scrambling to address.

It really feels like we've had a full cultural shift in a matter of months, if not weeks. The Carabineros have their highest approval ratings ever, and much of the stuff that was fashionable to say or do during late 2019 - the so called "Octubrismo" - is now perceived as rather unacceptable, sort of bringing us full circle since this thing started. Piñera is even polling well, with a net positive approval rating (!) and that looked downright impossible not long ago.

Admittedly, it is going to be impossible for any government to address this crisis effectively and in the short term. But what particularly harms and cripples the Boric administration is:

A. That for every new statement in support of the police forces, criticizing illegal immigration or promising a tough on crime approach there's a thousand pre 2022 statements saying exactly the opposite;

B. That much of Apruebo Dignidad is very uncomfortable with these issues, and hurts the government by presenting an image of disunity;

C. That the government, though it tries, finds it hard to be consistent. First they backed a law being debated that significantly expanded the right to self-defence for police officers, then criticized it - after whipping votes for it -, then negotiated a slightly tamer version, then criticized it again, then signed it into law right after another Carabinero was murdered. But not before some left-wing congressmen threatened to go to the Constitutional Court to get it struck down, which... both undermines the message and is darkly ironic after years of the left rallying against the Constitutional Court as part of Pinochet's legacy.

So... yeah. The general perception is that they can't maintain a consistent line while losing control of the situation. All while Boric is being forced to govern, as Kaoras has noted, in a far more moderate fashion than he would want. I dare say Piñera wouldn't have been able to do or pass some of the new stuff on his heyday.

All things considered, it looks like the left is headed for a painful result. And it's not going to be the center-right that benefits, it's most likely going to be the Republicanos and the resurgent Partido de la Gente.

Kaoras is free to correct much of this since it's the perception from where I come from, but it's really been a surprising few weeks.

[Lumine]

And now it begins.

Polls have closed in Magallanes. Still early, but very - dare I say extremely - encouraging results for the Partido Republicano.

[Lumine]

First results from SERVEL are being reported, just 0.03%:

34.1% Republicanos
22.3% Unidad pr Chile
15.8% Chile Seguro
13.5% Todo por Chile
  4.3% Partido de la Gente
10.0% Independents

24.1% Blank/Invalid ballots

3% of the Magallanes vote, more or less.

[Lumine]

8% of Magallanes vote now, Chile Seguro gains a few points. Still one Republican and one Unidad por Chile on track to be elected.

[Lumine]

With 2,36%:

Partido Republicano 35,49%
Unidad para Chile 25,45%
Chile Seguro 21,50%
Todo por Chile 10,05%
PDG 5,33%

[Lumine]

The rate things are going, Partido Republicano may have won the biggest result for any single party in Chile since... 1965, I think. Different elections and all, but upwards of 30% is certainly astounding. They are even projected to gain more than 20 seats.

[Lumine]

Well... I mean, it sure beats the dark days of 2021, but this can't be good.

I don't think I ever wondered how a Republican-written Constitution would actually look like, because with this result they really can't drop things and pretend it's not their problem. It's all but theirs to write.

[Lumine]

I don't envy what follows for the Chilean left in December. They'll have to choose between the current constitution - persistently denounced at every turn as "Pinochet's Constitution" and whatever the Republicans write, probably far more to the right than the current amended text.

The mental gymnastics alone to defend the current Constitution will be interesting to see.

[Lumine]

With 60,62%:

Partido Republicano 35,78%
Unidad para Chile 27,85%
Chile Seguro 21,45%
Todo por Chile 9,09%
PDG 5,33%

[Lumine]

And UpCh got the Tarapacá seat, there won't be more changes. REP 22, UpCh 17, ChS 11 and one Indigenous representative.

No 2/3 majority then.

The threshold to approve articles is 3/5ths this time, so the right doesn't really need to reach 2/3rds. The left is still without effective veto power under those numbers.

[Lumine]

I may be unjust in my opinion, but Boric's speech could be summed up on this: "He talked a lot and said nothing."

I wouldn't go that far, there's a warning to Republicanos not to make the same mistake now that they have the power to write a new Constitution, and there's plenty of appeals to Chile Vamos to save the government by negotiating reforms. It's just that most of what he said is either deeply hypocritical or way, way too late.

Also, and now that they need the votes, suddenly Chile Vamos now qualifies as a democratic, moderate right in the government's rhetoric, which is quite amusing to see.

[Lumine]

The Tarapacá seat result was corrected after a miscount, the Republicans win an extra seat (securing both of the seats available there, which is utterly astounding). This, in turn - and even with the indigenous seat - brings the right and center-right to 2/3rds.

With 3/5s, you can approve articles, and with 2/3rds, you can knock down articles from the draft written by the experts. So, for all purposes, the left can be overriden at every turn. Thus far, there seems to be a spirit of cooperation unlike the one shown by the left-wing constituents in 2021, but once the Council gets into the difficult discussions I have to think that partisan and ideological identities will end up prevailing.

Also, after the Partido de la Gente (PDG) flopped hard, Franco Parisi didn't even see the results with his party members, he took a plane to the US and outright left the country (LOL).

[Lumine]

So... not a good month for the government, to put it very mildly.

In our equivalent of the State of the Union speech and after a couple of legislative successes, President Boric had what appeared to be a limited recovery, experiencing an increase in his approval ratings. All of that got lost in the next week or so as a result of continued government gaffes, mistakes or controversies.

Due to a public health crisis that was poorly handled, matters escalated into serious accusations against the Ministry of Health due to the bad performance of a Frente Amplio undersecretary, with the prospect of a successful impeachment of the Minister herself. The Undersecretary was forced to resign, but not before dragging down the Government for several days.

And then... we got a corruption scandal.

Cata-Gate

The gist of it is that several key figures of Revolución Democrática - one of the two big Frente Amplio parties, that of Giorgio Jackson - that have positions in government have seemingly been channeling public funds into "Fundations" that they are also a part of, or that other militants lead. Whereas these funds are intended as subsidies for various projects - particularly to improve living conditions in campamentos, or our equivalent of shanty towns - and are often subject to strict conditions for private organizations to receive them, these were handed over directly and without accountability. To make matters worse, it isn't clear how much of the sums - on the tune of millions of dollars - were actually spent. In other instances, they may have also been used to fund the Approve campaign last year.

It all started when a regional newspaper noted that the boyfriend of RD congresswoman Catalina Pérez (the Vice President of the Chamber of Deputies) and one of her former and senior staffers were involved in such shady manuevers, and it all escalated from there. Thus far it's already forced one RD undersecretary (in the Ministry of Housing) to go, there's open questions about how much the Housing Minister (former senator and veteran Socialist Carlos Montes) knew - if at all -, and every day another RD party member in the government is linked to the similar modus operandi. There is also already a judicial investigation into the foundations, Pérez and several RD party members.

For what it's worth, President Boric has managed to stick to a "zero tolerance" line in terms of public discourse, but Revolución Democratica has completely botched the handling of the scandal, with party President (and Senator) Juan Ignacio Latorre having been forced to backtrack and change positions several times now.

In only ten days or so, we've gone from "nothing wrong, it was legal" to "there may have been administrative irregularities" to "Catalina Pérez is not involved, but her boyfriend is" to "Catalina Pérez must have known, we're suspending her party membership but no one in government is actually at fault", to the current line, which is "all political responsibility rests solely with the Undersecretary that resigned".

Now, it would be bad for any government, but the Frente Amplio - and RD in particular - has made a career over their clean image and anti-corruption commitments, to the point of ceaselessly attacking every other party as corrupt. So... yeah.

It's a developing story, but it's going to get worse before it stabilizes.

(It's been called by some "Cata-Gate" due to Catalina Pérez)

[Lumine]

Well, it got worse.

Among other things:

-Catalina Pérez fired back against her party and took a leave of absence from Congress.

-It emerged that Senator Latorre (RD Party Chairman) KNEW about the incoming scandal at least ten days before it broke... and told no one outside his party. Not the Housing Minister, not the President, nor his fellow party chairmen. Unsurprisingly, calls for his ousting are escalating - only mitigated by the fact no one in RD seems to want the hot potato of leading the party through the crisis - and the center-left parties have made it clear trust has been broken.

-The scandal has expanded to several multiple foundations across several regions, involving other government authorities (and a regional governor) - to the tune of $10 million US dollars and counting - and failing to disappear from the public eye.

-President Boric is under intense pressure regarding Housing Minister Montes (who, while seemingly innocent, failed to notice what was happening in his own Ministry) and Social Development Minister Giorgio Jackson, the president's close friend and most prominent member of RD. There are calls for resignations amidst warnings of potential impeachment for both due to their role in the scandal.

-It's also unclear when exactly the President learned of it, with a recent statement seemingly implying he was informed or knew before it broke out in the media (it's possible he misspoke). Thus far, his approval ratings have held steady (close to 30%) despite the storm, but we'll see how things progress.