Chilean Elections and General Discussion. Municipal and Regional elections, October 27th, 2024

[Oryxslayer]

And UpCh got the Tarapacá seat, there won't be more changes. REP 22, UpCh 17, ChS 11 and one Indigenous representative.

No 2/3 majority then.

The threshold to approve articles is 3/5ths this time, so the right doesn't really need to reach 2/3rds. The left is still without effective veto power under those numbers.

Let me get this straight:

The Left wanted to change the constitution.

The voters didn't.

The Left insisted.

The voters voted No.

The Left still insisted.

The voters voted for the Right to get rid of the Left.

The Right now gets to write the new constitution, against the Left which insisted on changing it against the will of the people.

Lesson, never anger the population by trying to impose things they don't want.

Slightly skipping over the part where Chileans voted 78% in favour of amending the constitution, then voted overwhelmingly for left-wing parties to draft that new constitution.

Yeah it's more that there was buyer's remorse especially after said left wing parties drafted a very left wing constitution. Still not entirely sure why things swung so hard the other way. Regardless, seems likely whatever constitution proposed by the right probably doesn't pass and we just stay with the current and I think the process will end from then on. Which is a win for the right as I understand since they broadly like the Pinochet constitution, right?

I would say less buyers remorse - though the fact that was there is undeniable - and more just the fickleness of public opinion. Pinera had a 20-25% approval rating, and guess what share of the country voted for a new constitution? And now that Boric is underwater, albeit not by as much as Pinera, its opposition of Kast and the Conservatives who are surging.


From a broader perspective, we can see in hindsight that giving the constitutional process legitimacy solely from their elected officials was the fatal flaw. Critical bodies tasked with important action should be established with a higher form of legitimacy that transcends the fickleness of the people. Which of course is one of the paradox's of democratic politics, that you want your more powerful organs of government to have the minimal public consultation necessary. The Chilean situation has though been entirely born of the electorate.

For example, lets go back to the 2021 constitutional elections. Publicly and Personally, I supported the Left. But the polls told us the Left was never losing thanks to the unpopularity of Pinera. So I then internally began to hope the Pinera-aligned parties win 1/3 of the seats and veto power. This is not some prescience, it is just my personal belief that any such process must have buy-in from everyone participating in society, and the processes politicization meant the closest you could get to that was with all factions having a voice. I also more personally had the California redistricting Commission in mind, a body that I had more immediate knowledge of and was seemingly built to have a well of support beyond the politicians. Doesn't matter that California is a one-party state, all three main blocks of voter identification are equally represented. All groups are required to approve of action, which has in the past fostered cooperation and the production of a document that is acceptable to all.

Which theoretically may have been what had happened had the Conservatives won a veto point in 2021. Both the radical tickets and the right-alliance would be too large to sideline and instead buy-in from both would be needed to produce a product. its not a perfect solution, and i'm sure those partisans in front of the public would still have said their fill, but putting a document before the public that had the endorsement of all parties but Kast's and certain radicals would not have needed the President to campaign and defend it before the electorate.

Instead however, the supermajority of the left and radicals elected in 2021 meant that body was always looking to it's left internally for support, and produced a document that was the product of those political realities. Now the Right is in a similar position, forced by the electorate to constantly look to it's right for support in drafting a document rather than to the wider body. And when public opinion again changes, whatever it produces will again be rejected by the fickle voters for the same reasons.

[Intell]

People wanted a change in the constitution probably to be less pincohety, what they got was a wish list of ideological progressive pet causes, a lot not relevant to their daily lives, it's no surprise they voted it down, and it's clear that those that voted it down voted for right of centre parties, even if they might have voted for Boric, or for a constitutional change before

[Lumine]

The Tarapacá seat result was corrected after a miscount, the Republicans win an extra seat (securing both of the seats available there, which is utterly astounding). This, in turn - and even with the indigenous seat - brings the right and center-right to 2/3rds.

With 3/5s, you can approve articles, and with 2/3rds, you can knock down articles from the draft written by the experts. So, for all purposes, the left can be overriden at every turn. Thus far, there seems to be a spirit of cooperation unlike the one shown by the left-wing constituents in 2021, but once the Council gets into the difficult discussions I have to think that partisan and ideological identities will end up prevailing.

Also, after the Partido de la Gente (PDG) flopped hard, Franco Parisi didn't even see the results with his party members, he took a plane to the US and outright left the country (LOL).

[Red Velvet]

People wanted a change in the constitution probably to be less pincohety, what they got was a wish list of ideological progressive pet causes, a lot not relevant to their daily lives, it's no surprise they voted it down, and it's clear that those that voted it down voted for right of centre parties, even if they might have voted for Boric, or for a constitutional change before

That is true, but it doesn’t change how bipolar and inconsistent the electorate can be. Which is the main reason no one puts everything up to popular consultation all the time. People elect politicians to make these choices for them.

Once the people voted YES for new constitution and picked the people they wanted to write it for them, I don’t get the point/purpose if a third vote at all, feels redundant tbh. Like you wanted to confirm the 1st vote to begin with. If they differ, which can easily happen considering how volatile and shaped by current circumstances public opinion always is, then necessarily one of the votes people had cannot be followed! Which makes no sense at all to me.

Chile is example of how the “woke” western-like left is a flop in taking the opportunity they have in hands. Everyone is kind of a flop to be fair when you have never before seen strong antigovernist dissatisfaction going on in LatAm from left and right but the Chilean left, which is more similar to the left you see in Western countries, deserves their own chapter for this story.

[MRCVzla]

The result at least reflects 2 important things:
1. It is what is obtained once you write a partisan text that does not attract the moderate voter (strong surge of the opposite option, in this case the Right)
2. It is what is obtained when there is a strong apathy to the political system, both the current government (Boric) and those who have governed before (Piñera, Bachelet) plus sceptism on the "third way" populist alternative (Parisi/Jiles), resulting on the high number of invalid votes, augemented with the mandatory voting (85% turnout but 21% of them spoiling their votes).

The latter is perhaps the cancer that runs through all of LATAM politics thanks to corruption, insecurity or the high expectations that some political proposals fail to meet.

I know the text will be drafted first by the expert commission, but the right-wing majority can try to maintain some of the "sensitive" topics for which the whole process began in the first place during the final draft, that is, the privatization of services that would be considered basic in other countries such as pensions, access to water or education. If they want to really approve a draft who has to be supported by the people, may be exist some of the consensus who the left-wing Convention didn't do. Let's see...

In other side, fortunately, on the SERVEL results page, the results are also accessible at the level of parliamentary districts (the constituencies of the lower chamber and the previous Convention) with greater district magnitude.

Well, the result is not far different with 155 seats than with 50 (plus the quota for the indigenous seat), the right would continue to have 2/3 but the "concertacionista" list of Todo por Chile would obtain at least representation in Coquimbo and Valparaíso Cordillera, no independents or PDG would be elected under this system.

Republicanos - 68 (actual 23)
Unidad para Chile (Apruebo Dignidad, PS and Liberals) - 49 (actual 16)
Chile Seguro (Chile Vamos) - 36 (actual 11)
Todo por Chile (PPD, DC and Radicals) - 2 (actual none)

[resad]

Do you think that the new RW majority will try to put in more right-wing clauses in the constitution than in the current one.

Banning gay marriage?
Bringing back the old binomial vote system?
Something about immigration (Chile has issues with illegal migration from Venezuela and Haiti)?
A flat tax?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Terribly disappointing (but not all that surprising) result. I am not sure what sort of constitution the new right-wing convention will write but now I have the strong feeling it won't fare much better than the previous text. Much ado about nothing...

Also, I see one candidate for the indigenous seat(s) was elected and the vote was closer to filling both seats than neither. That's quite nice and a surprise in light of what kaoras said here before the election. Was there any significant political difference between the two people running?

[kaoras]

Terribly disappointing (but not all that surprising) result. I am not sure what sort of constitution the new right-wing convention will write but now I have the strong feeling it won't fare much better than the previous text. Much ado about nothing...

Also, I see one candidate for the indigenous seat(s) was elected and the vote was closer to filling both seats than neither. That's quite nice and a surprise in light of what kaoras said here before the election. Was there any significant political difference between the two people running?

Not really, both of them have said that they would not push for "Plurinationality"  Both said that they would focus on the same things, recognition of their "collective rights" such as language, culture and reserved seats in Congress.

Both of them had links with radical Mapuche groups in the past but ran on moderate platforms.

[oldtimer]

Do you think that the new RW majority will try to put in more right-wing clauses in the constitution than in the current one.

Banning gay marriage?
Bringing back the old binomial vote system?
Something about immigration (Chile has issues with illegal migration from Venezuela and Haiti)?
A flat tax?

If they are smart, they will do nothing but block any changes, the more they do the greater the risk they get voted out like the last lot.

The public there clearly voted them to block a change in the constitution.

[kaoras]

Do you think that the new RW majority will try to put in more right-wing clauses in the constitution than in the current one.

Banning gay marriage?
Bringing back the old binomial vote system?
Something about immigration (Chile has issues with illegal migration from Venezuela and Haiti)?
A flat tax?

If they are smart, they will do nothing but block any changes, the more they do the greater the risk they get voted out like the last lot.

The public there clearly voted them to block a change in the constitution.

You are so sweet, thinking anyone voted thinking in the constitution. This was a punishment on Boric government + many leftwinger spoiling their ballots or voting in the indigenous roll.

[kaoras]

This is not to sugarcoat how awful this result is for the Chilean Left but is worth noting that the parties that did run on these elections didn't actually lose ground from the parliamentary election of 2021.



Unidad para Chile gained 0,7% and Todo por Chile lost 0,8% (and technically they all advanced from the last constituent elections which is darkly ironic). The problem was that the "outsider left" vote evaporated completely (remember, all those parties didn't have time to re-register) and unsurprisingly they were totally unable to capitalize it (in %, obviously due to compulsory voting they all gained hundreds of thousands of votes).

Some of that went to the spoiled ballots (I saw a null vote that said something along the lines of " this process, see you next estallido), some of that went to the indigenous roll (indigenous living in traditional communities are just slightly left-wing overall, but people with indigenous ancestry inclined to vote there are overwhelming left wing, still wouldn't have moved the overall vote more than 2% or so), but a lot of it was that the most clear cut way to "stick it" to Boric was to vote Republican.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

The obvious conclusion is that there's a leftist->PDG->Republican pipeline, kind of like how about half of the Five Star supporters in Italy wound up voting for Salvini and Meloni.

[kaoras]

The obvious conclusion is that there's a leftist->PDG->Republican pipeline, kind of like how about half of the Five Star supporters in Italy wound up voting for Salvini and Meloni.

Yes, but I think that is mostly that there is a huge chunk of the electorate that is non ideological and has very fickle preferences, swinging wildly between the most anti status quo option of the moment.

And the problem is that more than ever, the Chilean left currently is only appealing to the true believers, which apparently will only get them to 38%.

[kaoras]

And the problem is that more than ever, the Chilean left currently is only appealing to the true believers, which apparently will only get them to 38%.

Don't worry, PPD president Natalia Piergentili has the solution for this, insulting your own voters!

It's a bit hard to translate her words because she used a lot of slang terms, but the most remarkable thing was that she called leftists voters "hairy monkeys".

If you want to keep talking to the hairy monkeys, to the 30%, to the compañeres, I don't think you feel like making a self-criticism"

She also slammed the "agenda sexo-genérica" (sex-gender agenda). Keep in mind that PPD propaganda looks like this, Latinx use included

PPD was also making noises about creating a "Social-democratic Federation" with PS, PR and PL to save itself from electoral doom (the constitutional expert committee passed a 5% electoral treshold, with a transitory 4% for the next election, none of which would be cleared by PPD). After these declarations, widely condemmed, PS deputies have started calling for her to be kicked out of the Government Political Committee lol.

PPD has outlived his usefulness and should die, most of their old voters are now in FA, precisely those who she is insulting.

[kaoras]

The Expert Committee finished the "Anteproyecto", that has been widely praised non-stop by the press and pundits in the last few weeks. You can read it here, in Spanish

Despite all the good press, latest CADEM poll shows that just 28% would vote "In Favour" and 48% would vote "Against" it. And this is before the Republican majority starts adding stuff. Yesterday Boric said that he would vote "In Favour" of the current anteproyecto (which will probably sink it a bit more ) but if this process fail there won't be a third attempt during his government.

I think this whole thing is DOA. The Left base is still not over Approve defeat last year and the Right base still doesn't want a new Constitution. Neither side is even willing to give it a chance and the non-ideological majority is tired and distrustful.

Funny thing is, just like with the last Convention, almost all the provisions in the Anteproyecto are very popular (The only thing that polled under 60% approval was the 5% threshold in the electoral law) but as I explained, no one cares about what actually is in it.

In any case, good riddance. Pinochet's Constitution is better than whatever Kast's party will come out with, and I disagree with the Constitucional Bases of the current process anyway.

[Lumine]

So... not a good month for the government, to put it very mildly.

In our equivalent of the State of the Union speech and after a couple of legislative successes, President Boric had what appeared to be a limited recovery, experiencing an increase in his approval ratings. All of that got lost in the next week or so as a result of continued government gaffes, mistakes or controversies.

Due to a public health crisis that was poorly handled, matters escalated into serious accusations against the Ministry of Health due to the bad performance of a Frente Amplio undersecretary, with the prospect of a successful impeachment of the Minister herself. The Undersecretary was forced to resign, but not before dragging down the Government for several days.

And then... we got a corruption scandal.

Cata-Gate

The gist of it is that several key figures of Revolución Democrática - one of the two big Frente Amplio parties, that of Giorgio Jackson - that have positions in government have seemingly been channeling public funds into "Fundations" that they are also a part of, or that other militants lead. Whereas these funds are intended as subsidies for various projects - particularly to improve living conditions in campamentos, or our equivalent of shanty towns - and are often subject to strict conditions for private organizations to receive them, these were handed over directly and without accountability. To make matters worse, it isn't clear how much of the sums - on the tune of millions of dollars - were actually spent. In other instances, they may have also been used to fund the Approve campaign last year.

It all started when a regional newspaper noted that the boyfriend of RD congresswoman Catalina Pérez (the Vice President of the Chamber of Deputies) and one of her former and senior staffers were involved in such shady manuevers, and it all escalated from there. Thus far it's already forced one RD undersecretary (in the Ministry of Housing) to go, there's open questions about how much the Housing Minister (former senator and veteran Socialist Carlos Montes) knew - if at all -, and every day another RD party member in the government is linked to the similar modus operandi. There is also already a judicial investigation into the foundations, Pérez and several RD party members.

For what it's worth, President Boric has managed to stick to a "zero tolerance" line in terms of public discourse, but Revolución Democratica has completely botched the handling of the scandal, with party President (and Senator) Juan Ignacio Latorre having been forced to backtrack and change positions several times now.

In only ten days or so, we've gone from "nothing wrong, it was legal" to "there may have been administrative irregularities" to "Catalina Pérez is not involved, but her boyfriend is" to "Catalina Pérez must have known, we're suspending her party membership but no one in government is actually at fault", to the current line, which is "all political responsibility rests solely with the Undersecretary that resigned".

Now, it would be bad for any government, but the Frente Amplio - and RD in particular - has made a career over their clean image and anti-corruption commitments, to the point of ceaselessly attacking every other party as corrupt. So... yeah.

It's a developing story, but it's going to get worse before it stabilizes.

(It's been called by some "Cata-Gate" due to Catalina Pérez)

[kaoras]

There are also tons of other foundations that have received huge amounts of public money and are starting to being investigated (Though the main one, Urbanismo Social, at least appears legit unlike Democracia Viva, still not going to help them with the public opinion lol)

I'm really cynic about corruption and never bought FA insufferable holier than thou attitude but it was a central part of their identity nonetheless. But even for me it has been kind of surprising how shamesly they have privileged putting their friends in the State Apparatus over actually doing a competent job considering how annoying they are with their moral superiority.

But well, FA types are all sociologists and post-graduates in fields white no employability outside the State administration or non-profits that need State funds so in hindsight it shouldn't be surprising.

[Lumine]

Well, it got worse.

Among other things:

-Catalina Pérez fired back against her party and took a leave of absence from Congress.

-It emerged that Senator Latorre (RD Party Chairman) KNEW about the incoming scandal at least ten days before it broke... and told no one outside his party. Not the Housing Minister, not the President, nor his fellow party chairmen. Unsurprisingly, calls for his ousting are escalating - only mitigated by the fact no one in RD seems to want the hot potato of leading the party through the crisis - and the center-left parties have made it clear trust has been broken.

-The scandal has expanded to several multiple foundations across several regions, involving other government authorities (and a regional governor) - to the tune of $10 million US dollars and counting - and failing to disappear from the public eye.

-President Boric is under intense pressure regarding Housing Minister Montes (who, while seemingly innocent, failed to notice what was happening in his own Ministry) and Social Development Minister Giorgio Jackson, the president's close friend and most prominent member of RD. There are calls for resignations amidst warnings of potential impeachment for both due to their role in the scandal.

-It's also unclear when exactly the President learned of it, with a recent statement seemingly implying he was informed or knew before it broke out in the media (it's possible he misspoke). Thus far, his approval ratings have held steady (close to 30%) despite the storm, but we'll see how things progress.

[kaoras]

.
-It's also unclear when exactly the President learned of it, with a recent statement seemingly implying he was informed or knew before it broke out in the media (it's possible he misspoke). Thus far, his approval ratings have held steady (close to 30%) despite the storm, but we'll see how things progress.

And it keeps being steady. In my anecdotal evidence, most people already had the idea that FA was as corrupt as the rest either due to fake news or the correct perception of rampant "amiguismo".

In the constitutional front, there was a time period to present Popular Initiatives for the Council that needed to gather 10k signatures. The number of people that signed an initiative was like 1/4 of the old process and initially it appeared that only right-wing ones would make the cut. In the end several leftist initiatives did manage to gather enough signatures.

Among the right wing stuff there are things like banning abortion, defending rodeo and of course, house arrest for human rights abusers. I wonder if Republicanos and Chile Vamos will resist the urge to approve the last one lol.

Polls keep showing that this new process is on track to be an even bigger failure than the last one. Latest Cadem shows just 25% in favour and 55% against. Other polls show more undecideds but a similar proportion of 2-1 for "Against"

[PSOL]

Most leftists in Non-profits and civil service are bad people, so this is unsurprising.

[kaoras]

Communist Party president Guillermo Tellier has died at age 79. He was leader of the Communist Party armed wing during the dictatorship (whose only notable act was a failed assassination attempt against Pinochet) and during his leadership during democracy he led the PC out of their political isolation through pacts with the Concertación, the formation of the New Majority with Bachelet and nowadays the current Boric government.

Boric declared a day of national mourning. This was opposed by the right, obviously, because of his role during the dictatorship saying that he "justified violence". Nevermind that the right has spent the whole mont justifying the coup of 1973, because bombing the government palace, killing thousands of people, raping women with dogs and stealing babies isn't violence apparently.

Honestly, the reason I'm not updating this thread is because I'm tired of pretending that a good chunk of this country isn't a basket of morally bankrupt deplorables:

[PSOL]

All of the left kowtowed to Boric, perhaps the most disgusting person in Latin American politics today, and you expect people to just accept that even with a massive decline in living standards and government that is a diet Piñera administration?

You defended this even with massive warning early on of the massive risk of tying yourself to the BoBo.

[kaoras]

All of the left kowtowed to Boric, perhaps the most disgusting person in Latin American politics today, and you expect people to just accept that even with a massive decline in living standards and government that is a diet Piñera administration?

You defended this even with massive warning early on of the massive risk of tying yourself to the BoBo.

Yes PSOL, I know you'd rather had my mum being in prison for being a communist like Kast proposed in his platform, than you very much for your deep insight.

[Estrella]

Honestly, the reason I'm not updating this thread is because I'm tired of pretending that a good chunk of this country isn't a basket of morally bankrupt deplorables

As if to drive this point home, one of the soldiers found guilty of the kidnapping, torture and murder of Víctor Jara killed himself today to avoid going to prison.

[Red Velvet]

All of the left kowtowed to Boric, perhaps the most disgusting person in Latin American politics today, and you expect people to just accept that even with a massive decline in living standards and government that is a diet Piñera administration?

You defended this even with massive warning early on of the massive risk of tying yourself to the BoBo.

Yes PSOL, I know you'd rather had my mum being in prison for being a communist like Kast proposed in his platform, than you very much for your deep insight.

He criticized Boric though, didn’t defend Kast?? The left didn’t necessarily had to support Boric from the start, they could’ve nominated Jadue, for instance.

It’s crazy how Chileans don’t even have bipartisan system but somehow act like they have one. Kast being awful doesn’t make Boric great.