Chilean Elections and General Discussion. Municipal and Regional elections, October 27th, 2024

[kaoras]

New Thread for Chilean Political Developments and possible new constituent elections.

PS-PPD are proposing this roadmap for a new constituent process (copied shamessly from Ex Ante, a very good right wing newspaper for anyone interested)

That Congress establishes the mechanism and term of a new Constitutional Convention, without the need for a new "entry" plebiscite.
The Constitutional Convention must be 100% elected, in a new election to be held in November, with compulsory voting.
The new Convention must work on the basis of the deliberation of the processes promoted by Bachelet in 2016, the reception of proposals for the Convention and the text of the proposal for the Convention, so that the new Convention enters directly into the normative debate .

The term of work of the new Convention must be a maximum of 6 months and that its proposal be submitted to an exit plebiscite, to be held one month later, for a new constitution to be ready in time for 50th anniversary of the Coup of 1973.

The new Constitutional Convention should be constituted by 100 members elected in a national election, with the following requirements:

Nationwide closed party lists that can include independents and with zipper lists to ensure gender parities.
The lists must be constituted by candidates from at least 10 different regions and no more than 35% of members of the lists can be from a single region.
Indigenous seats must be supernumerary (added to the 100 of the national lists) and determined by the number of people that participate in the indigenous electoral roll, not according to census criteria.

.

[kaoras]

After Delpín resignation as president of the DC, 600 members are asking for the resignation of all the leadership team (which includes both the Approve and Reject camps). Yasna Provoste said that she won't leave the mandate for which she was elected.

The grassroot anger against the pro-Reject members continue unabated despite the results, with 152 comunal leaders asking for the expulsion of deputy Eric Aedo, senators Ximena Rincón and Matías Walker and ex conventional Fuad Chahín.

At this point, the best scenario for the DC is to split, only way to become a coherent(s) party(ies) again.

[Estrella]

Interesting. So the shift away from PS etc was a elite-driven thing while the base stayed more 'traditional' (like the people with Bachelet tchotchkes you once talked about ). Or is the party just split down the middle?

[kaoras]

Interesting. So the shift away from PS etc was a elite-driven thing while the base stayed more 'traditional' (like the people with Bachelet tchotchkes you once talked about ). Or is the party just split down the middle?

I've got the impression from the last internal election that their militant base is very divided, but the left faction is very loud at grassroot level. The problem with the DC is that it seems they no longer have a base outside being a network of politicians with individual popularity and what remains isn't very in touch with their membership. For example, in the last parliamentary election the Aysén branch of the DC deselected deputy Miguel Angel Calisto for their conservative leanings and occasional support for Piñera government, but were overruled by the national leadership, which was a good decision because Calisto was the most voted candidate in Aysén with 25%.

The DC base according to research are self-id centrists, catholics and rural voters, all segments that have been shrinking but that doesn't fully explain their fall from 30 to 4% in the last 30 years. DC leadership has usually interpreted their decline as a sign they must become more centrists (hence the shift away from PS) but that has failed miserably. If you look at elections results, you notice that DC collapses in the short term usually correlate with rightist or miscellaneous centrist advances, but in the long term the left recovers that share but the DC stays down. The DC has gone from having almost half of the total leftists vote to less than 10% of it:

[kaoras]

You won't believe which parties are analyzing "postponing" the new constitutional process because of the "economic situation". Who could have seen this coming from the Right... One part of me wants that they really refuse to change the constitution, this country fully deserves it

Ah, the communist are annoyed at Boric because of the reshuffle and the failed appointment of their subsecretary of interior (which was given a consolation price on the regional development subsecretary). They don't want to repeat the experience of the second Bachelet government which they feel like drifted too much to the center.

Also, Rojo Edwards resigned to the presidency of the Republican party because of tension with Kast that I didn't really understand and one of their deputies joined the PDG caucus because she said that the party was a "sect"

[kaoras]

RN senators (and it seems that most of the Right) will oppose a new Convention, instead they want Congress to name an "expert committee".

So this will end up either with no change at all or the same undemocratic way of all the previous constitutions in Chile.

[Lumine]

RN senators (and it seems that most of the Right) will oppose a new Convention, instead they want Congress to name an "expert committee".

So this will end up either with no change at all or the same undemocratic way of all the previous constitutions in Chile.

To be fair, the sentiment appears to be more widespread than one would imagine, it's reported even center-left parliamentarians are wary of another convention and the polls, surprisingly, suggest potential support for a committee of experts and/or distrust of repeating the same process, perhaps out of fatigue.

Personally I don't think it's the right way to go - and others in the right have expressed it as such -, but there are motives to think even the public is not yet convinced the Convention 2.0 is necessarily the best option. It's not like an expert committee automatically means "no change", though I think it's a given any future constitutional document is going to be far more grounded in reality compared to what was voted on Sunday.

[kaoras]

RN senators (and it seems that most of the Right) will oppose a new Convention, instead they want Congress to name an "expert committee".

So this will end up either with no change at all or the same undemocratic way of all the previous constitutions in Chile.

To be fair, the sentiment appears to be more widespread than one would imagine, it's reported even center-left parliamentarians are wary of another convention and the polls, surprisingly, suggest potential support for a committee of experts and/or distrust of repeating the same process, perhaps out of fatigue.

Personally I don't think it's the right way to go - and others in the right have expressed it as such -, but there are motives to think even the public is not yet convinced the Convention 2.0 is necessarily the best option. It's not like an expert committee automatically means "no change", though I think it's a given any future constitutional document is going to be far more grounded in reality compared to what was voted on Sunday.

Expert committee polls well because is an undefined thing where people can put their best hopes (just like the convention full of independents once upon a time). I oppose that out of democratic principle and because is not easy to exactly determine what counts as an expert. Is not even a guarantee to be an improvement, two of the most hated constituents, Atria and Bassa are definitely experts by almost any definition of the word. _{Also, this country fully deserves a new convention full of PDG "experts"}

Some people on the left are having second thought because they think (correctly) that they will have worse results than in the last elections, but that is just opportunism. And let's be real, the chances of the right supporting any non cosmetic change are just 0, in the convention they voted against everything they said they now totally support like the end of the subsidiary state.

[Lumine]

Expert committee polls well because is an undefined thing where people can put their best hopes (just like the convention full of independents once upon a time). I oppose that out of democratic principle and because is not easy to exactly determine what counts as an expert. Is not even a guarantee to be an improvement, two of the most hated constituents, Atria and Bassa are definitely experts by almost any definition of the word. _{Also, this country fully deserves a new convention full of PDG "experts"}

Some people on the left are having second thought because they think (correctly) that they will have worse results than in the last elections, but that is just opportunism. And let's be real, the chances of the right supporting any non cosmetic change are just 0, in the convention they voted against everything they said they now totally support like the end of the subsidiary state.

We'll have to agree to disagree there, I think it's been made plainly clear that there are proposed changes with enough support that are not just cosmetic. It's just not going to be a complete overhaul of the system like some hoped for.

In any case, we have the first post-plebiscite Cadem poll. Some key points:

-Boric Approval: 33% (-5) / 60% (+6)

-60% support the Cabinet reshuffle, with additional questions suggesting people believe it will help the government in a number of issues.

-Interior Vice-Minister Monsalve now the most popular member of the Cabinet (71% approval), right behind Finance Minister Marcel (68% approval). Quite a boon to PS.

-Reasons to vote Approve, first mention (paraphrasing): Need for structural changes (34%), social rights (32%), ending Pinochet's constitution (17%), and so on.

-Reasons to vote Reject, first mention (paraphrasing): Disapproval of constituent process (21%), Plurinationality (16%), Disapproval of President Boric (12%), Uncertainity or fear caused by new Constitution (12%), Restrictions to private property and individual freedoms (11%), and so on.

-Should we have a new Constituent process?: Yes 67% (-10) / No 33% (+13)

-Reform vs. New Constitution: New Constitution 50% / Reform 46%

-Mechanism for a new Constitution: Mixed Convention 48% / Fully elected Convention 27% / Congress + Designated Experts 20%

-Electoral System for a new Convention: Gender Parity (77/22); Indigenous seats by population (57/33), lists of independent candidates (30/60)

[kaoras]

In the morning there appeared to be an accord on some initial points of the new process (like a 100% elected convention not called convention supported by an expert committee) but the right in the afternoon said that they haven't agreed to anything...

In any case, the "center-left" for Reject is making noises about making a new party. Ex PR president Carlos Maldonado quit the PR saying that he hoped to join a "new party". Other figures that are rumored to create/join this new force are Mariana Aylwin, Felipe Harboe, Ximena Rincon and Fuad Chahín

[kaoras]

In the morning there appeared to be an accord on some initial points of the new process (like a 100% elected convention not called convention supported by an expert committee) but the right in the afternoon said that they haven't agreed to anything...

In any case, the "center-left" for Reject is making noises about making a new party. Ex PR president Carlos Maldonado quit the PR saying that he hoped to join a "new party". Other figures that are rumored to create/join this new force are Mariana Aylwin, Felipe Harboe, Ximena Rincon and Fuad Chahín

Amarillos por Chile also wants to create a new party and very likely it all ends ups being a single entity.

Chile Vamos didn't assist to today meeting to negotiate the new constituent process accusing the government of interference. In reality, the press has reported that it was because of heavy internal divisions regarding the initial accords they had eached and that's why they backtracked.

[kaoras]

Constitutional talks will resume this Friday. Chile Vamos has several "red lines" including an expert committee that puts "boundaries" for the new constitution such as an unitary state and "freedom" of choice in health and education.

[kaoras]

Also, Amarillos x Chile will start the process of becoming a formal party tomorrow (no idea if they are going to keep the name or go with something less cringe-worthy). Among their main figures will be writer Cristián Warnken and a plethora of "autocomplacientes" ex-Concertación figures like Mariana Aylwin, Gutenberg Martínez (ex DC) and people close to former president Ricardo Lagos.

However, other figures of the center-"left" for reject such as DCs Ximena Rincon, Matías Walker and ex PR Carlos Maldonado are not going to join and instead will make a party of their own. They criticize Amarillos for being a project of "Santiago elites" (lol), not even they being comfortable with Mariana Aylwin and Gutenberg Martínez (lmao) and because Amarillos already has drafter their principles and structure so they wouldn't get much influence (the real reason probably)

So, for electoral politics in the future the real question if they ally with the right or do a new centrist coalition together. The disaster of Sumemos in the 2017 elections could make that option less appealing but they may feel confident enough.

[kaoras]

Latest CADEM asked about party sympathies.

PDG 11%
FA 10%
UDI-RN-EVO (Chile Vamos) 9%
PS-PPD-PR (Socialismo Democrático) 8%
Partido Republicano 7%
Amarillos 7%
DC 5%
PC 5%
None 38%

Government left (FA-SD-PC) 23%
Right Wing (CV-REP) 16%
"Centrists" (DC-Amarillos) 12%
PDG 11%

DC and Amarillos technically/maybe count themselves as part of the "center-left" and PDG should be a category by itself, honestly (though in Congress they vote more closely with the right)

By political camp it is:



PDG is a true catch all (along with the DC lol) while Amarillos is drawing exclusively from centrists, without denting the left.

[kaoras]

Ximena Rincon and others DCs are toying with the name "Partido Demócrata" (Democratic Party) for their new Party. Would be pretty funny if Chile ended up having both democrats and republicans.

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

Ximena Rincon and others DCs are toying with the name "Partido Demócrata" (Democratic Party) for their new Party. Would be pretty funny if Chile ended up having both democrats and republicans.

They should name it "Partido por la Democracia Cristiana" to confuse people into voting for them.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Sooo until I watched this video I didn't realize the vote had been compulsory. How many of these usual non-voters who were forced to the polls voted against the constitution and who made the decision for the vote to be mandatory or was that required for a new constitution?

[If my soul was made of stone]

Ximena Rincon and others DCs are toying with the name "Partido Demócrata" (Democratic Party) for their new Party. Would be pretty funny if Chile ended up having both democrats and republicans.

They should name it "Partido por la Democracia Cristiana" to confuse people into voting for them.

Paging all the Italian parties who name themselves and do up their logos just so that those of a certain nostalgic disposition will think they're The DC Continuity Party

[Oryxslayer]

Sooo until I watched this video I didn't realize the vote had been compulsory. How many of these usual non-voters who were forced to the polls voted against the constitution and who made the decision for the vote to be mandatory or was that required for a new constitution?

We'll never know. But there is certainly a point where increasing turnout stops attracting the marginal voters who would normally be there if not for outside circumstances, and starts attracting the people who would normally not be there because of their disgust or ambivalence to politics. In the situation of a referendum, the latter group probably just votes irrationally against the governments position on whatever the issue is.

That all said, it's understandable given the context of the product that people want at least 50% of all citizenry, not just voters. Which is one of the many reasons why similar constitutional processes in other countries often end up with non-controversial 'foundation' documents which are endorsed by all and pass with universal acceptance. The ideological stuff the parties so desire comes later and is built upon this foundation. Chile however cannot so easily follow this path: the current Chilean constitution is already politicized towards the Right, so any changes by definition are going to struggle to get their support.

[kaoras]

Sooo until I watched this video I didn't realize the vote had been compulsory. How many of these usual non-voters who were forced to the polls voted against the constitution and who made the decision for the vote to be mandatory or was that required for a new constitution?

It was part of the accord of 2019 that started the process and was signed by all parties of the time except the communists.

The idea probably came from the left though. There is a sector of the left, specially the FA (not so much in SD) that is so drunk in their own kool aid that they genuinely thought that a vast majority wanted all of their agenda, they just didn't vote.

It wasn't really that hard to guess that most people that never voted would likely go with reject because of deep distrust in politics in general and Boric unpopularity. I warned about that a couple of times in fact.

FA and PC in particular, needs to understand that leftwing people are only a third of the country, and the people that usually puts them over the top have a myriad of reasons but in general tends to be populist and not really ideological. That's why Parisi caused such havoc in the north in the last elections.

[kaoras]

Quich roundoup:

Party Politics: Independent deputy elected on PR list's Andres Jouannet joined Amarillos (leaving the government with a single deputy in all Araucanía) while RN deputy Erica Oliveira will join "Sentido Común" (PRI v 3 or 4.0). Acción Humanista, PH split of those unhappy with Pamela Jiles' protagonism was re-legalized, though I wonder why they just rejoined PH since Jiles left the party.

Amarillos also said that their ideology was "reformism centre", you know... Spanish PP ideology

General News: Today the goverment finally ended the mask mandate and the mobility pass. The Government coalitions are also split over the trade treaty TPP11 (oh, the memories). SD wants to pass it while AD doesn't. Most likely will pass with the right support but for now AD managed to stall the voting. Very dumb that this has been the goverment focus after the plebiscite.

Constitutional talks: There have been several meetings in Congress, with the discussion focused on the "edges" of the new constitution, ie things that a new convention won't be able to change and in the electoral system.

[kaoras]

The Constitutional discussion has continued and while it is funny I haven't had much time lately to cover all the petty fights, so I'll likely just post the final accord when they are done with it.

But I just couldn't not comment on the fact that the DC this time really is entering on existencial crisis mode (maybe for real this time!). Metropolitan Region Governor Claudio Orrego resigned his membership citing the all-consuming factional infighting and other DC's governors in Maule and Los Lagos are also considering quitting the party. This means that the resignations are now cutting beyond the latest line of factional divide, because all of DC governors, Orrego included, supported the Approve option in the plebiscite. DC ex-presidents gathered signatures to call an extraordinary Party Congress but the directive is maneuvering against it.

Also, given that I'm already here, if you want more insight about why Boric has struggled so much, look no further than the fact that their agenda priority after the plebiscite has been passing the TPP-11, which of course has deeply divided the government parties. Of the 20 senators of SD and AD, just 4 approved the treaty. The DC was also divided with 2 in favour (Rincon and Walker) and 2 against (Provoste and Huenchumilla). The TPP passed with votes from the opposition.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Ximena Rincon and others DCs are toying with the name "Partido Demócrata" (Democratic Party) for their new Party. Would be pretty funny if Chile ended up having both democrats and republicans.

They should name it "Partido por la Democracia Cristiana" to confuse people into voting for them.

Paging all the Italian parties who name themselves and do up their logos just so that those of a certain nostalgic disposition will think they're The DC Continuity Party

There are probably at least six registered parties called exactly Democrazia Cristiana, all of which I assume accuse the others of being fake revisionists unduly appropriating the name of the good ol' party, and most of which have never really had a meaningful existence or support (although Cuffaro's machine in Sicily has posted some impressive results recently). Ironically given the history of the DC, an extremely communist-like pattern of behaviour...

[PSOL]

Bobo Boric condemns the October protesters

In his speech, Boric stated that, “The social uprising was fertile ground for the expansion of destructive violent behavior, which has left victims and aftereffects. We must say this unequivocally no matter our political leanings.” He also points out that “the violence turned against the very causes of the uprising by producing a growing wave of rejection in society”.

…

“This type of violence is not innocent; it causes harm, encourages hatred, promotes criminality and ends up promoting a return to an anti-democratic past”, Boric noted, trying to blame the protestors for the repressive policies of the State, which he now leads and which is carrying out a violent campaign against migrants and the indigenous Mapuche people.

While proclaiming himself as part of the “Left,” he puts forward what’s clearly a right-wing policy: “We on the Left denounce more categorically than anyone these behaviors. We must confront them without hesitation, denounce them and punish them”.

…

“neither is it acceptable to attack police officers, who are, after all, State officials who are performing a service entrusted to them by the democratic system,”

[kaoras]

Bobo Boric condemns the October protesters

In his speech, Boric stated that, “The social uprising was fertile ground for the expansion of destructive violent behavior, which has left victims and aftereffects. We must say this unequivocally no matter our political leanings.” He also points out that “the violence turned against the very causes of the uprising by producing a growing wave of rejection in society”.

…

“This type of violence is not innocent; it causes harm, encourages hatred, promotes criminality and ends up promoting a return to an anti-democratic past”, Boric noted, trying to blame the protestors for the repressive policies of the State, which he now leads and which is carrying out a violent campaign against migrants and the indigenous Mapuche people.

While proclaiming himself as part of the “Left,” he puts forward what’s clearly a right-wing policy: “We on the Left denounce more categorically than anyone these behaviors. We must confront them without hesitation, denounce them and punish them”.

…

“neither is it acceptable to attack police officers, who are, after all, State officials who are performing a service entrusted to them by the democratic system,”

I find most of Boric's political movements extremely dumb but the stupidity of these takes are really something else. No wonder you have so many colourful ideas about LatAm politics if these are your sources.