🇭🇷 Croatian General Election, April 17th 2024: President Milanović running for SDP

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

wow, the SD split really flopped, huh? Unfortunate, because Milanović is a Putin bootlicker.

[Duke of York]

wow, the SD split really flopped, huh? Unfortunate, because Milanović is a Putin bootlicker.

you have evidence of this claim?

[Logical]

80% counted
HDZ+  62
SDP+  42
DP+    13
Most   11
M!         9
IDS       3
NPS      2
Fokus   1

Includes diaspora seats but not national minority seats.

[Estrella]

wow, the SD split really flopped, huh? Unfortunate, because Milanović is a Putin bootlicker.

you have evidence of this claim?

Just a small example:

Croatia rejects joining in EU’s Ukraine training mission

The vote in parliament was held after Croatia’s president previously had refused to sign off on the proposal, saying it was not in accordance with the Constitution. President Zoran Milanovic has been an outspoken critic of Western policies in Ukraine. He has advocated that Croatia offer only humanitarian aid to Ukraine in the face of Russia’s invasion.

The government needed a two-thirds majority in parliament to get such a decision approved. The proposal did not pass because 97 out of parliament’s 151 members backed it — four fewer than needed. Ten lawmakers were against while the rest abstained or weren’t present during the vote.

Milanović was quite pro-Russian during his 2011–2016 term as PM, and after leaving office set up a consultancy firm with some rather suspicious connections to Moscow. As president, he's somehow managed to out-Orbán Orbán.

Highlights of Milanović's foreign policies include lashing out at the PM for visiting Ukraine, accusing the UK of goading Ukraine against Russia, saying that Russia deserves security guarantees from Ukraine, banning NATO aircraft from Croatian airspace, saying that the invasion is a US-Russian proxy war, calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution a coup d'état, denying the Bucha massacre, saying that "it's the Ukrainians or those who incited them who are to blame for deaths of Ukrainians" and this quote which, yes, is real and was said this September: "we're currently watching how Russia is mincing Ukraine with very small number of soldiers".

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

He also compared Ukrainian soldiers to the Ustase iirc.

[Logical]

91% counted
HDZ+  60
SDP+  42
DP+    14
Most   11
M!        10
IDS       3
NPS      2
Fokus   1

Includes diaspora seats but not national minority seats.

[Storr]

91% counted
HDZ+  60
SDP+  42
DP+    14
Most   11
M!        10
IDS       3
NPS      2
Fokus   1

Includes diaspora seats but not national minority seats.

change in seats from 2020 election

HDZ+   -6
SDP+   +1
DP+     -2
Most    +3
M!        +3
IDS      no change
NPS      +2
Fokus   -2

[Mike88]

Has Zoran Milanović reacted to this defeat?

[Mike88]

Share of the vote with 91.3% counted:

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1780728077875544090

[Storr]

Has Zoran Milanović reacted to this defeat?

I didn't find anything from a low effort google news search conducted while eating dinner. But I found a politico EU story which mentioned that Milanović called Plenković a "fire-spewing badger" during the campaign. As a furry, that just makes Plenković seem cool to me.

https://www.politico.eu/article/firebrand-populist-wins-chance-to-steer-croatia-away-from-pro-eu-and-pro-ukraine-path/

[DavidB.]

The exit poll turned out to be very accurate. HDZ have only 60, including the three diaspora seats. DP without PIP takes them to 73 and 5 minority seats (all of the non-Serbs) to 78. Let's see if it can be done, and if so, how stable it would be. A new election cannot be completely ruled out.

[Storr]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Croatian_parliamentary_election#/media/File:2024_Croatian_election_map.svg

[Flyersfan232]

The exit poll turned out to be very accurate. HDZ have only 60, including the three diaspora seats. DP without PIP takes them to 73 and 5 minority seats (all of the non-Serbs) to 78. Let's see if it can be done, and if so, how stable it would be. A new election cannot be completely ruled out.

and for most?

[DavidB.]

I'm pretty certain that it's impossible. At least as long as Plenković leads HDZ. Remember that Most already governed with Plenković (in his first government) and left that government — at a time when Most had a less pronounced conservative profile. The ideological differences between them and HDZ have only increased ever since.

Croatian media report that Plenković would ideally like to avoid DP. But I don't see how. Even with all 9 minority seats, the Istrians of IDS (2), the Northerners of NPS (2), and Fokus (1, and he has already said he will not support HDZ) Plenković only gets to 75. Yet another alternative path would run via Možemo and the 9 national minorities, which does get him over the barrier, but I think quite a lot of water would have to flow through the Sava for that to happen.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Has Zoran Milanović reacted to this defeat?

I didn't find anything from a low effort google news search conducted while eating dinner. But I found a politico EU story which mentioned that Milanović called Plenković a "fire-spewing badger" during the campaign. As a furry, that just makes Plenković seem cool to me.

https://www.politico.eu/article/firebrand-populist-wins-chance-to-steer-croatia-away-from-pro-eu-and-pro-ukraine-path/

as a fellow furry, I also concur.

[Storr]

So this happened on Friday:

"On 19 April, the Constitutional Court ruled that President Zoran Milanović was ineligible to become prime minister in the event that the SDP would be able to form a government, citing his statements and behavior during the electoral campaign. According to the ruling, he would be barred from being given the mandate to form a new government even if he previously resigned as President. Three of the Constitutional Court judges released a dissenting opinion pointing out there are no specific arguments or regulations to justify the decision. They cited "unconstitutional threats" of the Court and criticized the potential undermining of the will of the people. Milanović gave a statement in front of a photo showing "HDZ's man" Miroslav Šeparović, the Court's President, hanging out together with HDZ ministers Oleg Butković and Branko Bačić, accusing the Court of preparing a coup d'état."

The photo in question. Nice flip flops:

[Flyersfan232]

So this happened on Friday:

"On 19 April, the Constitutional Court ruled that President Zoran Milanović was ineligible to become prime minister in the event that the SDP would be able to form a government, citing his statements and behavior during the electoral campaign. According to the ruling, he would be barred from being given the mandate to form a new government even if he previously resigned as President. Three of the Constitutional Court judges released a dissenting opinion pointing out there are no specific arguments or regulations to justify the decision. They cited "unconstitutional threats" of the Court and criticized the potential undermining of the will of the people. Milanović gave a statement in front of a photo showing "HDZ's man" Miroslav Šeparović, the Court's President, hanging out together with HDZ ministers Oleg Butković and Branko Bačić, accusing the Court of preparing a coup d'état."

The photo in question. Nice flip flops:

how likely is this to results in milanvic losing this winter?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Since the redefinition of constituencies makes comparisons at that level tricky, I decided to take a look at results in the largest cities (https://izbori.hr/sabor2024/rezultati/) and compare them with 2020 (https://www.izbori.hr/arhiva-izbora/#/app/parlament-2020).

ZAGREB (The capital)
HDZ coal. 26.0 (-2.7)
SDP coal. 23.5 (+2.0)
Možemo 19.8 (+1.2)
DP 9.8 (-0.6)
Most 9.4 (+0.2)
Fokus 3.8 (-2.0)

SPLIT (Split-Dalmatia County, Dalmatia)
SDP coal. 30.4 (+7.6)
HDZ coal. 30.2 (-3.2)
Most 11.5 (-0.3)
DP 10.9 (+1.1)
Možemo 5.7 (+0.3)
Fokus 0.5 (-7.6)
Note that the Split-based Centar, previously Pametno, ran with Fokus in 2020 and with the SDP in 2024.

RIJEKA (Primorje-Gorski Kotar County, east of Istria)
SDP coal. 34.0 (N/A)
HDZ coal. 25.3 (-0.9)
Možemo 13.4 (+3.0)
Most 6.7 (-0.9)
IDS-PGS 6.4 (N/A)
DP 4.4 (-0.7)
Fokus 1.2 (-3.8)
The Alliance of Primorje-Gorski Kotar (PGS) is another regionalist party that tends to run with the IDS. The cumulative result of Rijeke Pravde and IDS-PGS is (+3.6) compared to Restart in 2020.

OSIJEK (Osijek-Baranja County, Slavonia)
HDZ coal. 42.4 (+2.7)
SDP coal. 23.5 (+0.4)
DP 11.3 (-4.4)
Možemo 7.7 (+4.2)
Most 6.4 (+0.2)
Fokus 1.3 (-1.7)
Note that the Croatian People's Party (HNS), whose support at least in 2020 almost entirely came from the far north of the country and northern Slavonia, ran alone in 2020 but with the HDZ in 2024.

ZADAR (Zadar County, Dalmatia)
HDZ coal. 32.2 (-8.9)
SDP coal. 25.7 (+1.9)
DP 9.9 (+0.2)
Most 9.8 (+0.7)
Možemo 6.8 (+2.1)
Fokus 0.8 (-4.6)

VELIKA GORICA (Zagreb County, suburb of Zagreb)
HDZ coal. 35.1 (-2.7)
SDP coal. 22.4 (+1.5)
DP 11.0 (-0.9)
Možemo 10.7 (+2.8)
Most 9.9 (-0.7)
Fokus 2.3 (-1.5)

PULA / POLA (Istria County)
SDP coal. 37.2 (N/A)
IDS-PGS 17.2 (N/A)
HDZ coal. 15.1 (-0.8)
Možemo 11.2 (-1.4)
Most 4.1 (0.0)
DP 3.6 (-0.4)
Fokus 3.2 (-0.2)
The cumulative result of Rijeke Pravde and IDS-PGS is (+3.8) compared to Restart in 2020.

SLAVONSKI BROD (Brod-Posavina County, Slavonia)
HDZ coal. 38.5 (-6.7)
SDP coal. 25.5 (+1.3)
DP 12.6 (-2.3)
Most 9.1 (+2.6)
Možemo 5.1 (+3.0)
Fokus 1.2 (-1.5)

KARLOVAC (Karlovac County, central Croatia)
HDZ coal. 36.3 (-7.2)
SDP coal. 25.5 (+0.9)
Možemo 12.7 (+5.5)
DP 9.8 (+0.1)
Most 6.7 (+2.3)
Fokus 1.0 (-3.3)

VARAŽDIN (Varaždin County, far northern Croatia)
SDP coal. 46.1 (+10.5)
HDZ coal. 22.1 (-1.1)
Možemo 10.4 (+4.5)
Most 5.6 (+2.0)
DP 4.6 (-2.1)
NPS 4.4 (N/A)
Fokus 1.2 (-5.3)
Independent Platform North (NPS) is a regionalist party that was part of the Our Croatia alliance, like the more established IDS-PGS; as far as I can tell it is a new party. Note that the Varaždin-based Reformisti ran alone in 2020 but with the SDP in 2024.

Stopping here both because ten is a nice round number and because these cover a representative geographic spectrum. Make of these data what you will, I am particularly intrigued by the surprisingly strong Možemo results in Slavonia.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

As a bonus mostly for myself, this is how Grožnjan / Grisignana (the most Italian municipality in Croatia and I think the only one where Italian is the first language of a majority) voted. Consider that it is a very small village.

IDS-PGS 42.1 (N/A)
SDP coal. 28.3 (N/A)
Možemo 9.3 (+0.4)
HDZ coal. 6.6 (+1.5)
DP 4.5 (-0.2)
Most 2.4 (+0.5)
Fokus 0.3 (-0.6) which means exactly one vote.
The cumulative result of Rijeke Pravde and IDS-PGS is (+5.4) compared to Restart in 2020.

[Storr]

"On 21 April elections were repeated in two polling stations. The first was in Sračinec, where an excess of ballots was found in the ballot boxes. The irregularity referred to the list of candidates in the XII electoral unit where representatives of the Albanian, Bosniak, Montenegrin, Macedonian and Slovenian national minorities were elected. The second polling station was in Markušica, where it was discovered that by mistake 83 persons of Serbian nationality voted twice, namely for the V electoral unit and for the candidates of the XII electoral unit of the Serbian national minority."

https://web.archive.org/web/20240421112051/https://dnevnik.hr/vijesti/hrvatska/gradjani-ce-ponovno-na-izbore-saznajte-zasto-u-prilogu-sanje-vistice---844155.html?itm_source=TopNews&itm_medium=Dnevnik&itm_campaign=Naslovnica