Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

"That recent investigation into the German construction materials firm Knauf has paid off, sorta, as the company now says it will ditch its Russian subsidiary, which has been helping in the Mariupol reconstruction (a big propaganda campaign for Moscow)."

https://www.merkur.de/wirtschaft/russland-wirtschaft-putin-sanktionen-unternehmen-knauf-mariupol-kritik-rueckzug-93025473.html

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1782412900088316132

[Storr]

Even if sanctions aren't having as much of an impact as hoped, they're still having an impact:

"A pretty remarkable admission about the effects of sanctions from Vladimir Potanin, one of Russia's richest men. Norilsk Nickel is moving a smelter to China and complains financial sanctions are eating into 15-20% of its revenue.

with @harrydemps"

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1782376452463227386

[jaichind]

The Russian advance in  Ocheretyne West of Avdivka seems to be on the high ground of the general area.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1782387420140298318

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1782526548202897781
🇬🇧 being based for once good to see

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Reminder that no matter how hard you fight or shill for Russia, they will still dump you like a used sock once you've outlived your usefulness.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1781376341750804484

LOL the most hilarious thing is that even though this guy was 63 years old he basically had the world view of a typical teenage edgelord, he claimed to be a communist and spread the same "Nazis rule Ukraine!" type garbage. Good riddance.

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1782543389897936936


Also:

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/22/ukraine-package-armored-vehicles-00153672

Defense Department officials are still putting the finishing touches on the potential new tranche, but they want it to be ready to go soon after President Joe Biden signs off on a bill to provide tens of billions of dollars in additional aid for Kyiv, said the officials, who along with others were granted anonymity to speak ahead of an announcement. The Senate is expected to pass the legislation as early as Tuesday, sending it to Biden’s desk.

The package DOD is working on now will be significantly larger than the most recent tranche of $300 million, said one of the U.S. officials, along with a third U.S. official with knowledge of the discussions. The first two U.S. officials said it would include armored vehicles; a fourth person said additional Bradley Fighting Vehicles would be part of the shipment. Older Humvees and M113 armored personnel carriers, as well as missiles, are also expected to be in the package, one of the U.S. officials said.

[Hollywood]

Russians raised flag yesterday evening in the center of Ochertyne. It's currently 5:30AM in Ukraine. 

Russians also moving swiftly through Southern Krasnohirivka.  Like Ochertyne, Ukrainians are pinned down by aviation and artillery. 

https://twitter.com/BattleBabyErika/status/1782596132146962568

https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1782533552145306008

[GoTfan]

Geez you made a comeback since the aid package passed. Panicking, vatnik?

[Badger]

Horrifying. The guy seemed like a piece of work but I wouldn't wish that on anyone.

Someone who participates in military units committing Mass rape out of policy? I totally would. Karma's a bitch, baby.

[jaichind]

After the capture of  Ocheretyne which is West of Avdivka, pro-Russian sources say Russians have moved southward from there to capture Novobakhmutovka

[jaichind]

Russian telegram:

Enemy resources report that our sappers have begun to clear mines and remove mines on the border of Sumy and Kharkov regions.

Soon the month of May

Summer offensive in Kharkiv/Kharkov?

I am skeptical.  One lesson learned from the Ukraine counteroffensive last year is that to pre-announce your offensive ahead of time is a bad idea.  For me, the Russians will focus on Donbass in 2024 and worry about places outside of Donbass in 2025 and 2026.

[jaichind]

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/22/blinken-to-warn-china-over-support-for-russias-military-during-trip.html

"Blinken to warn China over its support for Russia’s military during this week’s visit"

There are talk that Blinken might threaten financial sactions on some PRC firms.  We will see if this is true.  I do know if such threats are mde public then there is no way the PRC will back down. 

[Hindsight was 2020]

Geez you made a comeback since the aid package passed. Panicking, vatnik?

Probably disappointed that Zelensky won’t be assassinated after all. (Something he legitimately called for btw that ain’t hyperbole)

[jaichind]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/22/briefing/ukraine-russia-war-us-aid-package.html

"Ukraine’s New Hope"

The most realistic scenario for Ukraine is probably not a return to the prewar borders. The nation would be smaller, but it could retain most of its territory, then integrate itself economically and strategically with Europe. That’s a lot better than outright defeat.

The problem is that for Ukraine losing some of its most valuable territory is defeat for their point of view.  And "integrate itself economically and strategically with Europe" will not really change the existing economic situation in Ukraine since this is mostly a function of underlying culture and not being part of X or Y unless joining X or Y means free money just flows in for the foreseeable future.

[Open Source Intelligence]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/22/briefing/ukraine-russia-war-us-aid-package.html

"Ukraine’s New Hope"

The most realistic scenario for Ukraine is probably not a return to the prewar borders. The nation would be smaller, but it could retain most of its territory, then integrate itself economically and strategically with Europe. That’s a lot better than outright defeat.

The problem is that for Ukraine losing some of its most valuable territory is defeat for their point of view.  And "integrate itself economically and strategically with Europe" will not really change the existing economic situation in Ukraine since this is mostly a function of underlying culture and not being part of X or Y unless joining X or Y means free money just flows in for the foreseeable future.

I think far eastern Ukraine they've silently written off for most of a decade. Crimea, being removed from the Sea of Azov, and some of the Black Sea coastline they've lost is more valuable, but they still have Odessa at least.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Im sorry did jaichind just say Ukraine’s poor economy was due to its culture and not uts geopolitical history? What an absolutely ignorant take, yeah Ukraine’s economic weakness was heavily caused by Russia’s meddling and being integrated into the EU markets will make them richer

[lfromnj]

Ukraine's corruption absolutely does affect its economy .

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ukraine's corruption absolutely does affect its economy .

That corruption is directly tied to Russia. Like it doesn’t take too much effort to put together that Ukraine having corrupt oligarchs might be related to bordering the biggest corrupt oligarchy country in the world

[Stranger in a strange land]

Reminder that no matter how hard you fight or shill for Russia, they will still dump you like a used sock once you've outlived your usefulness.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1781376341750804484

LOL the most hilarious thing is that even though this guy was 63 years old he basically had the world view of a typical teenage edgelord, he claimed to be a communist and spread the same "Nazis rule Ukraine!" type garbage. Good riddance.

In view of this, it's really surprising that he was fighting for the DPR (Czarist & Fascist LARP) instead of the LPR (Soviet LARP) and might have something to do with why the other guys in his unit killed him.

[lfromnj]

Ukraine's corruption absolutely does affect its economy .

That corruption is directly tied to Russia. Like it doesn’t take too much effort to put together that Ukraine having corrupt oligarchs might be related to bordering the biggest corrupt oligarchy country in the world

The corrupt oligarchs actually are far more mixed than you think. Poroshenko is a fairly corrupt oligarch but you can't deny his anti Russian bonafides.  Joining a fairly strong centralized state such as Russia under Putin's rule means that you accept his rule which is something corrupt oligarchs don't want. Putin actually does work with Oligarchs but he also somewhat brought them under control in the early aughts.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ukraine's corruption absolutely does affect its economy .

That corruption is directly tied to Russia. Like it doesn’t take too much effort to put together that Ukraine having corrupt oligarchs might be related to bordering the biggest corrupt oligarchy country in the world

The corrupt oligarchs actually are far more mixed than you think. Poroshenko is a fairly corrupt oligarch but you can't deny his anti Russian bonafides.  Joining a fairly strong centralized state such as Russia under Putin's rule means that you accept his rule which is something corrupt oligarchs don't want. Putin actually does work with Oligarchs but he also somewhat brought them under control in the early aughts.

It’s still a culture that Russia directly influences onto Ukraine even if you can pick out singular examples, and integrating into the EU would give Ukraine better resources to combat it.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1782534433393852568

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1782534433393852568

Just to be clear.  This could be a Ukraine trap and they will then come in to cut off the Russian force there.  We will know in a couple of days if that is the case.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/archer83able/status/1782797318799970346?s=46&t=ZHeS7rMUp...
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