Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

Here's why we need to deliver Ukrainians in the military systems, including long-range missiles and warplanes, now, the attack that Iran conducted yesterday towards Israel saw the launch of over 300 drones, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles. And Israel's Iron Dome missile defense system and its warplanes played a major role in intercepting 99 % of these drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles and therefore to keep Israel's skies safe, to keep their infrastructure safe and to keep the Israeli people safe and to save millions and millions of lives

https://news.sky.com/story/what-is-israels-iron-dome-defence-system-and-why-is-it-so-effective-13114992

https://apnews.com/article/strait-of-hormuz-vessel-33fcffde2d867380e98c89403776a8ac

That's why we understand how much it is important to deliver Ukraine in all the military arsenal they need, including Patriot missiles and in F-16s. We all know that the Ukrainians defend their national territory and defeat Russia with spitballs.

The argument against that would be, as in the case with Israel

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1779518256845554043

where the USA is a net loser in terms of net military material by giving high-priced missiles to Ukraine to take down much cheaper Russian missiles or drones. 

[icc]

This sums up my opinion on the WaPo article:

"Imagine being a wartime leader and having Kamala Harris dictating how you should fight your existential war of survival in order to maximise her own re-election chances. Farcical."

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1779897875025047673

And if the US isn’t delivering on aid then they need to get used to the fact that they are going to be listened to less and less.

[Storr]

He's right. The unfortunate truth is that since Russia has nuclear weapons and Iran doesn't, the US is much less afraid of potential escalation with Iran than with Russia.

"⚡️To protect Israel, which is not a #NATO member, Western countries did not need Article 5 of the Alliance.  The same is possible in relation to #Ukraine — political will is needed, Ukrainian President Volodymyr #Zelensky said in his evening address."

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1779944131793760514

Edit, adding the section below.

This, exactly:

"Nuclear weapons are what sets apart the response of multiple countries to missile and drone barrages by Iran and Russia. The takeaway here is clear: if you want to be taken seriously, you must possess nuclear weapons. Decades of non-proliferation efforts continue to be undermined"

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1779974158073364608

[jaichind]

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4595993-speaker-johnson-unveils-plan-for-ukraine-israel-at-closed-door-gop-meeting/

"Speaker Johnson unveils plan for Ukraine, Israel at closed-door GOP meeting"

Looks like some variation of the Ukraine aid bill will get passed in the House.

[GMantis]

As for why there's not more pro-separatist signs in Russia...

1) Virtually all Russian federal subjects are ruled from Moscow, by Moscow, for Moscow's benefit. (The exceptions are, to the best of my knowledge, Chechnya and Tartarstan. There may be a couple of others.) There is very little political "space" for separatist movements to grow in. If Russia ever does disintegrate, I would expect the disintegration to be rapid, in response to a collapse of the Moscow-based, Putin-run kleptocratic empire post-Soviet Russia became, but in my entirely amateur opinion such collapse/disintegration seems very unlikely in the near future.

If this was the case, separatism would be stronger, not weaker. In reality, most of the country relies on subsidies from the central government. As for the Russian federation collapsing, it should be pointed out that there has never been any significant

2) People in Russia will identify in ways that benefit them. When the Moscow-St Petersburg gang is running a criminal empire for the benefit of ethnic Russians (and focusing on drafting ethnic minorities to send to Ukraine as cannon-fodder) everyone who can is going to identify as Russian. If  andwhen the empire does crumble, and ethnic republics surge, I would expect more people to identify with their non-Russian ethnic heritage.

Could you explain on what you're basing the extraordinary claim that a huge number of Russians have some other ethnic identity that they're falsely denying on censuses? Because there's absolutely no evidence to support such an idea. In fact, it's directly contradicted by the number of people identifying as Russians increasing after 1989, where by your logic they should have been abandoning this identity at the time.

[Woody]

Avdiivka front, since Jan. 1

https://imgur.com/a/4Dloq7t

[lfromnj]

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4595993-speaker-johnson-unveils-plan-for-ukraine-israel-at-closed-door-gop-meeting/

"Speaker Johnson unveils plan for Ukraine, Israel at closed-door GOP meeting"

Looks like some variation of the Ukraine aid bill will get passed in the House.

If it does pass I wonder how much can be due to the Iranian attack forcing the Israel aid bill which Biden said he will only sign with Ukraine.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4595993-speaker-johnson-unveils-plan-for-ukraine-israel-at-closed-door-gop-meeting/

"Speaker Johnson unveils plan for Ukraine, Israel at closed-door GOP meeting"

Looks like some variation of the Ukraine aid bill will get passed in the House.

If it does pass I wonder how much can be due to the Iranian attack forcing the Israel aid bill which Biden said he will only sign with Ukraine.

Played a role and apparently another thing is that the Ukrainian evangelical community been lobbying Johnson personally recently about the persecution they’re facing in the occupied territories because all these idiots who buy into Putin’s whole “last white hope of Christian nationalism” gimmick didn’t realize this brand of “Christian nationalism” had a struck Russian Orthodox identity to it
https://www.christianitytoday.com/news/2024/april/ukraine-christians-mike-johnson-us-speaker-southern-baptist.html

[CumbrianLefty]

Anybody who genuinely cites Putin as an upholder of "Christian values" is seriously brain dead.

There really isn't much else to say.

[Storr]

Feel free to call me sentimental, but I like these kind of stories that humanize the people affected by this war. There have been a countless number of them published since 2014. Additionally, there is tille doubt that they are staged in some form. Mine employees in areas under Ukrainian control aren't going to say they are pro-Russian (if they indeed are) to an Irish newspaper, likely facing repercussions if they did. Yet, I still find stories like these interesting and (to a degree) insightful.

"‘We’re doing everything to keep bringing up the coal’: Ukrainian miners defy Russia’s advance in the east
The Pokrovsk mine is just 40km from the front line in Donetsk region, but operates around the clock"

""It’s really important that we keep going," says Kateryna Tolmachova at the Pokrovsk coal mine, 40km from the front line in Donbas. "It means having a job, a wage and certainty about what you’ll be doing tomorrow – not everywhere in Ukraine has that.”"



"Miners emerge from the lift after a shift 800m underground at the Pokrovsk mine in eastern Ukraine. The sign above the lift reads: 'Take care of yourselves! People are waiting for you at home!'"




"Despite the uncertainty, 18-year-old apprentices Ivan, Yaroslav and Vladyslav see their futures at the mine and travel to Pokrovsk by company bus from nearby Myrnohrad, a town even closer to the fighting.

They all say they want steady work and a good salary, and Vladyslav is continuing a family tradition: “My grandfather and father worked here, and I’m following in their footsteps.”"

[jaichind]

https://www.barrons.com/news/imf-revises-up-russian-growth-forecast-for-2024-fd93b781

"IMF Revises Up Russian Growth Forecast For 2024"

IMF raises Russia 2024 GDP growth estimate from 2.6% to 3.2%  the war economy surge continues and exceeds growth of all collective West economies

[Red Velvet]

https://www.barrons.com/news/imf-revises-up-russian-growth-forecast-for-2024-fd93b781

"IMF Revises Up Russian Growth Forecast For 2024"

IMF raises Russia 2024 GDP growth estimate from 2.6% to 3.2%  the war economy surge continues and exceeds growth of all collective West economies

Good for Russia considering that last year (2023) growth of 3,6% already compensated previous year (2022) GDP loss of -2,1%.

Russia and USA had the largest upwards GDP projection revisions, both 0,6% larger than IMF estimates from January. They were followed by Brazil (upwards of 0,5%) and Spain (0,4%) of the major economies.

Russia growth is aligned with a good moment for emerging markets though, which are now back to growing more than advanced economies. USA seems to be an exception among those, with the economy performing much better than the European one.

Updated GDP growth projections for 2024 for largest economies:

1. India +6,8%
2. China +4,6%
3. Nigeria +3,3%
4. Russia +3,2%
5. USA +2,7%
6. Saudi Arabia +2,6%
7. Mexico +2,4%
8. Brazil +2,2%
9. Spain +1,9%
10. Canada +1,2%
11. Japan and South Africa +0,9%
12. Italy and France +0,7%
13. UK +0,5%
14. Germany +0,2%

Bolded all the emerging economies. USA is performing well, it’s surprising that so many Americans want Trump back under that context.

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.eu/article/why-ukraine-losing-russia-war/

"Ukraine is heading for defeat"

The article makes a big deal about not getting collective West aid as the driver for Ukraine's fortunes going downward.  

I am sure it makes a difference but I find it hard to believe that $61 billion can make that much difference when a much larger number has already been given to Ukraine.  The chart below is from 2023 July so the calmative numbers by now are larger than that

[Open Source Intelligence]

https://www.politico.eu/article/why-ukraine-losing-russia-war/

"Ukraine is heading for defeat"

The article makes a big deal about not getting collective West aid as the driver for Ukraine's fortunes going downward.

I am sure it makes a difference but I find it hard to believe that $61 billion can make that much difference when a much larger number has already been given to Ukraine.  The chart below is from 2023 July so the calmative numbers by now are larger than that.

I think money donations are not what should be looked at and instead we should look at tangible donations, i.e. equipment. Russians can get an artillery shell cheaper than the Americans can. A thousand artillery shells for the latter therefore is more expensive. Expensive is not an asset in this war and that's the philosophy of what American defense capability has been geared for, choosing expensive and technologically advanced over cheap, simple, but does the job well enough.

The war is this giant paradox for me. This is the greatest threat to the West since the end of the Cold War and we must defeat Russia, yet we're not deploying troops, it's completely out of the question save that peacock Macron, and most states are giving limited supplies out of a desire to not spend that much money/not have the war explode in size further. (The U.S. are the largest state but are hardly the only ones here.) Make up your mind, this is either the greatest threat to the West or it's not. You can either commit to back up what you have said or you can run off like that pussy Obama did with Crimea and Syria.

It feels like we're hitting this potential shift in global power and the people that have controlled the post-1990 world wanting that world to continue need to put up or shut up if they want to keep their world going, but they don't want to foot the cost in terms of deaths or dollars/euros/etc. This is more a geopolitical discussion than a war discussion, it's the type of discussion that turns all world leaders into warmongers according to their critics and some left-leaning future historians, but your alternative is the Russians win and goodbye most of the geopolitical influence your side held around the world (Europe I've long felt is Ottoman Empire circa late 1800s of heavily declining influence, we just thankfully haven't done huge wars that heavily redefine the "rules-based order" status quo).

ISW editorial on state of the conflict: http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/america%E2%80%99s-stark-choice-ukraine-and-cost-letting-russia-win

[Hindsight was 2020]

Russian is still nowhere near capturing  Kupyansk (something jaichind couldn’t stop posting was gonna happen 2 months ago) but will somehow take Kharkiv soon when after they couldn’t do it during the first stages when they had Ukraine not ready for it. Yeah. Okay. Sure.

[Storr]

"Officials said Berlin would send Ukraine more Iris-Ts later this year. Germany is also scouring the world for other defensive units [including asking Gulf States!] that could prove useful to Ukraine, such as the French-Italian SAMP/T and US-Norwegian NASAMS surface-to-air systems."

https://www.ft.com/content/6db9f905-2dc3-41fd-b57a-1d062a62cc69

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1780606924678951312

[jaichind]

Seems what is claimed here is also likely to take place in the USA in the next war

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2024/01/10/army-sees-sharp-decline-white-recruits.html

"Army Sees Sharp Decline in White Recruits"

In 2018, 56.4% of new recruits were categorized as white. In 2023, that number had fallen to 44%. During that same five-year period, Black recruits have gone from 20% to 24% of the pool, and Hispanic recruits have risen from 17% to 24%, with both groups seeing largely flat recruiting totals but increasing as a percentage of incoming soldiers as white recruiting has fallen.

The difference between the two (which apparently Russian propagandists hacks can't recognize) is that Russia operates a conscript based army whereas the US army is volunteer only.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-18/war-in-ukraine-russia-to-enlist-more-hired-soldiers-to-avoid-conscription?embedded-checkout=true

"Russia to Hire Contract Soldiers in Bid to Avoid Unpopular Draft"

A large part of the Russian military are contract soldiers.  It is in this population that it is fairly ethnic minority heavy since the pay is higher than what they can get in their hometowns.

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/

"Russian victory in Chasiv Yar would jeopardize ‘last stronghold’ of Donetsk region, Ukrainians say"

It is interesting how this conflict has attributes of wars in Europe before WWI where key fortresses play very critical roles

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1780941989673857348
Man why couldn’t we give Ukraine atacms back in late 22-early23 could of help with the CO

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/

"Russian victory in Chasiv Yar would jeopardize ‘last stronghold’ of Donetsk region, Ukrainians say"

It is interesting how this conflict has attributes of wars in Europe before WWI where key fortresses play very critical roles

Funnily enough you could argue that the wars between Russia and the Sublime Porte over Crimea also saw fortresses be critical.

[Storr]

Western countries buying weapons and ammunition from Ukrainian manufacturers and supplying them to Ukraine is an interesting idea. Transportation and labor (maybe materials as well?) would cost less than manufacturing in western countries. The obvious issue with it is that Russia can attack those in-country facilities with missiles or drones, whereas they cannot attack defense industries in NATO nations.

"The Danish Defense Ministry announced on April 16 a new 2.2 billion kroner ($313 million) military aid package for Ukraine. The package includes 200 million Danish kroner ($28.5 million) earmarked for purchases from Ukraine's defense industry.

"This is the first and so far unprecedented decision to purchase military products from Ukrainian manufacturers at the expense of another country," the Strategic Industries Ministry said in a statement."

"According to Kamyshin, Ukraine's defense industry has a capacity worth around $20 billion, but the state only has a budget of $6 billion to purchase weapons and equipment."

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1780973864509440103

[jaichind]

Latest CBS poll

Wow, 36% of 18-49 year olds think Russia is an ally/friendly.  That is amazing and objectionably not true of course.

[Red Velvet]

Depends. Cold War generation is dying so it’s natural that the neoliberal Anti-Russia sentiment that drove past generations will decay a lot even if won’t immediately disappear.

Populism and Nationalist sentiment being high these days in US favors Russia because both the Populist Right and Left have no reasons to see Russia as an adversary. And that’s what’s happening with the Neocons being replaced by Trump conservatives.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Depends. Cold War generation is dying so it’s natural that the neoliberal Anti-Russia sentiment that drove past generations will decay a lot even if won’t immediately disappear.

Populism and Nationalist sentiment being high these days in US favors Russia because both the Populist Right and Left have no reasons to see Russia as an adversary. And that’s what’s happening with the Neocons being replaced by Trump conservatives.

I buy the idea that 18-49 year olds are less hostile to Russia than their elders.  I do not for a second buy that 36% of them think Russia is friendly or an ally when this is objectively untrue and Russia itself declares so in no uncertain terms, both in word and deed.

[UWS]

As history has shown, strong aerial defense is vital for the protection and defense of a country. On 9/11, Operation Noble Eagle orchestrated flights of F 15 Eagles that flew cover over Washington D.C. and New York City after 9/11 in order to prevent any further planes from hitting other targets in the U.S. That means that without those F 15 Eagles, the al Qaida jihadists could have hit other targets like the Statue of Liberty, the U.S. Capitol, the White House, Times Square, etc. That’s why we need to supply Ukrainians in all the weaponry they need to protect their infrastructure and their sovereignty against Russia, including the F 16 fighter jets that are key to counter Russia’s air superiority

https://theaviationgeekclub.com/the-emotional-story-of-massachusetts-air-national-guards-f-15-eagle-pilots-who-became-the-first-military-response-to-9-11-attacks-on-new-york/amp/