AZ-SEN 2022 Megathread: Mastering the Art of the Thiel

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Hearing through the DC rumor mill that Mark Brnovich's campaign is apparently in serious trouble: struggling to raise money, dropped by his pollster, unable to get on the air.

Trump is endorsing Masters at his rally, he's gonna win the nomination

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/brnoforaz/status/1482553481894383616?cxt=HHwWgMCqja6ii5MpAAA...

[MargieCat]

This must have been a very disappointing night for Masters.

While Trump was pretty complimentary towards his candidacy, it didn't equate to an endorsement. Brnovich was and is still the frontrunner, until Trump endorses otherwise.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Could someone other than Pieman tell me if Masters or Brnovich is the better candidate?

[SnowLabrador]

If Trump doesn't endorse Masters, Brnovich will be the nominee.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GA and AZ can SPL VOTING, AZ DID SO IN THE PAST AND CAN AGAIN 2018

[Grassroots]

-Trump praised Masters at the rally
-The picture with Brno is not from last night

[ElectionsGuy]

Trump didn't endorse Masters at the rally did he? Weird, because that's what I would've expected.

[Ferguson97]

I'd be pretty shocked if Trump didn't endorse Masters at some point. He was really pissed that Brnovich didn't overturn the 2020 election results.

[Miked0920]

I have been hearing some chatter from Politico that incumbent Governor Doug Ducey (R-AZ) could possibly revise course and challenge Mark Kelly after all. I am still a little skeptical and think Ducey stays put. I wonder however if Voting Rights fails and then Schumers Rule Change Vote also failed would it cause Ducey to enter?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Masters has outraised Brnovich by 3x and has barely spent any money. I feel comfortable calling him the frontrunner at the moment.

[Roll Roons]

Yeah, Masters is really the "frontrunner"
https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1488515695537131523?cxt=HHwWhsCsse_IoqgpA...

[SnowLabrador]

So Kelly is up +4 against a generic Republican. I'm not sure if that's good or bad for him.

[2016]

So Kelly is up +4 against a generic Republican. I'm not sure if that's good or bad for him.

I wonder if Governor Ducey is reconsidering and pull a Cory Gardner?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s8G9Y31HdwM
Watch this: That doesn't sound like someone who is going into the sunset and end his Political Career after finishing his Term as Governor.

AZ Filling Deadline isn't until April 4th!

[Miked0920]

Possibly Id say there is a more likely chance that Ducey reverses course than Hogan in MD and especially Phil Scott in VT but Im still a little skeptical Ducey runs, Id say only a 35-40% chance as of now of him reversing course and running.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

It's OH Predictive, throw it in the trash

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs aren't winning AZ you wish throw it in trash why do Rs think Kelly is going down he's more popular than Bill Nelson 😊😊😊😊

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Only had a tiny sample, is a biased pollster trying to get Ducey in and doesnt screen for likely voters

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

So Kelly is up +4 against a generic Republican. I'm not sure if that's good or bad for him.

Generic [Party] candidates tend to run ahead of real candidates, so I’d say that’s solid.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Club For Growth endorses Masters: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/592697-club-for-growth-endorses-blake-masters-in-arizona-senate-race

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Ok I think we can safely say Trump doesn't want Brnovich to be the nominee.
https://twitter.com/realLizUSA/status/1495113714554613760

[ProgressiveModerate]

If Rs lose this race, it'll almost certainly be some throw away because the GOP candidate is just too much and causes too much chaos whereas Kelly has done a good job at remaining lowkey, uncontroversial, and relatively well-liked.

Feels like this is GA Runoff potential 2.0

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly is gonna be reelected because he has Gabby Gifford's sympathy vote from her being shot not because it's a throw away race for Rs we have yet to see a Gov race poll we don't know how Hobbs is doing if she is carrying Kelly or not

Kelly has only served a 1 yr not 5 yrs so voters feel they owe him a full Term

[2016]

Kelly is gonna be reelected because he has Gabby Gifford's sympathy vote from her being shot not because it's a throw away race for Rs we have yet to see a Gov race poll we don't know how Hobbs is doing if she is carrying Kelly or not

Kelly has only served a 1 yr not 5 yrs so voters feel they owe him a full Term

It won't matter if Biden has only a 40 % Approval Rating in the State. You are greatly, greatly underestimating the drag Biden will have on Democratic Candidates especially Incumbent Senators.

[Utah Neolib]

Masters: 49-51% chance at winning general election
Brnovich: 55-60% chance at winning general election