Seats considered "safe" in 2022 that could be competitive in 2024?

[lfromnj]

You don't think trends will continue in CO-03?

CO-03 has terrible undercurrents for Democrats - a largely ancestral Democratic base in the Southern parts of the district, and a large set of low-propensity conservatives in other areas. The ski-resort types are high-turnout voters who won't be able to increase their vote share in a presidential year. But it's a complex district, and Boebert is a uniquely terrible candidate so this will probably be closer than Republicans would like, but I still think it favors them in the long-run.

Yeah but nc 11 is literally an identical district to Colorado 3 .

[jamestroll]

You don't think trends will continue in CO-03?

CO-03 has terrible undercurrents for Democrats - a largely ancestral Democratic base in the Southern parts of the district, and a large set of low-propensity conservatives in other areas. The ski-resort types are high-turnout voters who won't be able to increase their vote share in a presidential year. But it's a complex district, and Boebert is a uniquely terrible candidate so this will probably be closer than Republicans would like, but I still think it favors them in the long-run.

the people moving in and out of CO-03.. it does favor Democrats.

If a non-Boebert is a the GOP nominee.. do think the GOP holds it for sure though.

[ottermax]

You don't think trends will continue in CO-03?

CO-03 has terrible undercurrents for Democrats - a largely ancestral Democratic base in the Southern parts of the district, and a large set of low-propensity conservatives in other areas. The ski-resort types are high-turnout voters who won't be able to increase their vote share in a presidential year. But it's a complex district, and Boebert is a uniquely terrible candidate so this will probably be closer than Republicans would like, but I still think it favors them in the long-run.

the people moving in and out of CO-03.. it does favor Democrats.

If a non-Boebert is a the GOP nominee.. do think the GOP holds it for sure though.

I didn't know this! Where are the growth and loss areas in CO-03?

[Aurelius]

You don't think trends will continue in CO-03?

CO-03 has terrible undercurrents for Democrats - a largely ancestral Democratic base in the Southern parts of the district, and a large set of low-propensity conservatives in other areas. The ski-resort types are high-turnout voters who won't be able to increase their vote share in a presidential year. But it's a complex district, and Boebert is a uniquely terrible candidate so this will probably be closer than Republicans would like, but I still think it favors them in the long-run.

Yeah but nc 11 is literally an identical district to Colorado 3 .

No it isn't. They have a few superficial commonalities but outside of Asheville the types of outdoorsy-as-lifestyle people moving to NC11 are very different than moving to CO3.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I’m sure there are others, but here are some that immediately come to mind (including races considered Safe Flips in 2022):

Democratic-held:
- NC-6: Kathy Manning (redistricting)
- NC-14: Jeff Jackson (redistricting)
- FL-9: Darren Soto (if Republicans can recruit a strong candidate)
- WA-3: Marie Perez (I think most considered this Likely/Safe R in 2022 )

Republican-Held:
- PA-10: Scott Perry
- CA-3 (if Dems run a good candidate, especially if the scandal rumors I’ve heard about Kiley are true)
- MI-10: John James
- PA-1: Brian Fitzpatrick
- FL-13: Anna Paulina Luna (if Dems recruit a strong candidate; I get major MTG/Boebart vibes from Luna and suspect she will be a chronic under-performer)
- TX-15: Monica De La Cruz (if we actually try here this time)
- IA-1: Marinette Miller-Meeks (two consecutive under-performances)
- IA-2: Ashley Hinson (under-performed in a good year for Iowa Republicans)
- WI-3: Derrick Van Orden (if Dems recruit a good candidate)
- AZ-6: Juan Ciscomani


I think we missed our shot at CO-3 and NC-11 is like VA-5 (with Ashville being like Charlottesville): it is basically fool’s gold.

[lfromnj]

Agreed on Luna. A lot of junk polls showed the race tied but they also had Rubio tied in the seat   in the end DeSantis and Rubio probably won the seat by 15 while Luna barely outperformed Trump.