List of crossover seats

[Roll Roons]

This is just including races that have been called so far. There will almost certainly be a few more in both categories, and I'll add them as they come in.

Trump/Dem:
AK-AL (Peltola)
ME-02 (Golden)
OH-09 (Kaptur)
PA-08 (Cartwright)
WA-03 (Gluesenkamp Perez)

Biden/GOP:
AZ-01 (Schweikert)
AZ-06 (Ciscomani)
CA-22 (Valadao)
CA-27 (Garcia)
CA-40 (Kim)
CA-45 (Steel)
NE-02 (Bacon)
NJ-07 (Kean)
NY-01 (LaLota)
NY-03 (Santos)
NY-04 (D'Esposito)
NY-17 (Lawler)
NY-19 (Molinaro)
NY-22 (Williams)
OR-05 (Chavez-DeRemer)
PA-01 (Fitzpatrick)
VA-02 (Kiggans)

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Interesting comparison. Does seem to make the case that 2022 was an improvement from 2020 for Republicans, even as they fell well short of expectations. I'd note that 2/2 Trump CD Dems were incumbents, but just 1/8 Biden CD Republicans.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

     Interesting comparison. Does seem to make the case that 2022 was an improvement from 2020 for Republicans, even as they fell well short of expectations. I'd note that 2/2 Trump CD Dems were incumbents, but just 1/8 Biden CD Republicans.

Republicans are on track to win the House popular vote.  Somehow, it didn't translate to the results in the swing districts very well.  I did hear something a while back about Democratic gerrymandering focusing on trying to get to 218 (while being vulnerable to a landslide), while Republican gerrymandering focused on maximizing safe seats and playing defense against a wave.  While they probably won't get to 218, it seems like the Democrats' strategy was successful this year.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

     Interesting comparison. Does seem to make the case that 2022 was an improvement from 2020 for Republicans, even as they fell well short of expectations. I'd note that 2/2 Trump CD Dems were incumbents, but just 1/8 Biden CD Republicans.

Republicans are on track to win the House popular vote.  Somehow, it didn't translate to the results in the swing districts very well.  I did hear something a while back about Democratic gerrymandering focusing on trying to get to 218 (while being vulnerable to a landslide), while Republican gerrymandering focused on maximizing safe seats and playing defense against a wave.  While they probably won't get to 218, it seems like the Democrats' strategy was successful this year.

Only really in Texas and GA, since Republicans were aggressive in Florida and Tennessee.

[Spectator]

You can add Don Bacon and Young Kim since their races are called.

Jared Golden and Mary Peltola are done deals and just a formality for RCV tabulation now.

[Gracile]

NY-01 is a Biden/GOP district as well.

[David Hume]

Trump/Dem:
OH-09 (Kaptur)
PA-08 (Cartwright)

AS-AL safe
ME-2 safe
CO-3 toss up


Biden/GOP:
AZ-06 (Ciscomani)
CA-40 (Kim)
NE-02 (Bacon)
NY-01 (LaLota)
NJ-07 (Kean)
NY-03 (Santos)
NY-04 (D'Esposito)
NY-17 (Lawler)
NY-19 (Molinaro)
PA-01 (Fitzpatrick)
VA-02 (Kiggans)

CA-45 likely
NY-22 likely
OR-5 likely
CA-22 lean
CA-27 lean

[Roll Roons]

Update: Added AK-AL, ME-02 and WA-03 for Trump/Dem. I know the first two won't officially be called until after RCV, but there is virtually no way the incumbents don't win in both.

I also added NY-22 and OR-05 for Biden/GOP. It may be technically possible for Democrats to win those, but it seems extremely unlikely. I also removed AZ-06 for now. I think Ciscomani barely pulls it out in the end, but there's a lot of uncertainty here.

[Skill and Chance]

     Interesting comparison. Does seem to make the case that 2022 was an improvement from 2020 for Republicans, even as they fell well short of expectations. I'd note that 2/2 Trump CD Dems were incumbents, but just 1/8 Biden CD Republicans.

Republicans are on track to win the House popular vote.  Somehow, it didn't translate to the results in the swing districts very well.  I did hear something a while back about Democratic gerrymandering focusing on trying to get to 218 (while being vulnerable to a landslide), while Republican gerrymandering focused on maximizing safe seats and playing defense against a wave.  While they probably won't get to 218, it seems like the Democrats' strategy was successful this year.

Only really in Texas and GA, since Republicans were aggressive in Florida and Tennessee.

Yes, this isn't about gerrymandering.  This is about Republicans gaining almost all of their national ground over 2020 in big cities and VRA seats, something I saw coming even though I thought they would do better overall.

[Roll Roons]

I added the AZ seats and CA-45 in light of Wasserman's calls.

5 Trump-district Democrats is all but confirmed as Ken Calvert looks likely to survive and there is no reason to think Kevin Kiley will lose.

There are currently 15 Biden-district Republicans with the possibility of up to four more from California (CA-13, CA-22, CA-27, CA-47).

[John Dule]

     Interesting comparison. Does seem to make the case that 2022 was an improvement from 2020 for Republicans, even as they fell well short of expectations. I'd note that 2/2 Trump CD Dems were incumbents, but just 1/8 Biden CD Republicans.

Republicans are on track to win the House popular vote.  Somehow, it didn't translate to the results in the swing districts very well.  I did hear something a while back about Democratic gerrymandering focusing on trying to get to 218 (while being vulnerable to a landslide), while Republican gerrymandering focused on maximizing safe seats and playing defense against a wave.  While they probably won't get to 218, it seems like the Democrats' strategy was successful this year.

Popular vote is a poor indicator given how many Rs were running unopposed.

[Roll Roons]

DDHQ called it for Garcia and considering that Smith only barely won today's update, they were justified in doing so. She needed a 2018-type blue shift and if it was happening, we would have seen it by now. 

Adding him to the list as the 16th Biden-seat Republican.

Three more Biden districts in California may be represented by Republicans: CA-13 (completely up in the air), CA-22 (leaning towards Valadao after today's updates) and CA-47 (Porter is favored but not completely out of the woods just yet).

CO-03 is the only Trump district that's really still in doubt. While Boebert is very likely to win, there may be some absentees/uncured ballots that give Frisch a narrow path to victory.

[Roll Roons]

Per Wasserman's call, the amazing David Valadao is the 17th Biden-district Republican.

With that, CA-13 is the last undecided seat in the country and will determine whether or not there are 17 or 18 Biden Republicans, and 22 or 23 crossover seats in total.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Look at that (non-Atlas) sea of red through New York.  

It's both beautiful and terrifying at the same time!

[ProgressiveModerate]

     Interesting comparison. Does seem to make the case that 2022 was an improvement from 2020 for Republicans, even as they fell well short of expectations. I'd note that 2/2 Trump CD Dems were incumbents, but just 1/8 Biden CD Republicans.

Republicans are on track to win the House popular vote.  Somehow, it didn't translate to the results in the swing districts very well.  I did hear something a while back about Democratic gerrymandering focusing on trying to get to 218 (while being vulnerable to a landslide), while Republican gerrymandering focused on maximizing safe seats and playing defense against a wave.  While they probably won't get to 218, it seems like the Democrats' strategy was successful this year.

Only really in Texas and GA, since Republicans were aggressive in Florida and Tennessee.

In Florida, it seems like the map was drawn using 2020 partisanship. Seats intended to be "D packs" like FL-09 might've gone R on a more neutral config in 2022 (meaning Dems would just win 1 Orlando seat).

In TN, the only seat that really mattered was TN-05 anyways which they effectively cracked.

[lfromnj]

     Interesting comparison. Does seem to make the case that 2022 was an improvement from 2020 for Republicans, even as they fell well short of expectations. I'd note that 2/2 Trump CD Dems were incumbents, but just 1/8 Biden CD Republicans.

Republicans are on track to win the House popular vote.  Somehow, it didn't translate to the results in the swing districts very well.  I did hear something a while back about Democratic gerrymandering focusing on trying to get to 218 (while being vulnerable to a landslide), while Republican gerrymandering focused on maximizing safe seats and playing defense against a wave.  While they probably won't get to 218, it seems like the Democrats' strategy was successful this year.

Only really in Texas and GA, since Republicans were aggressive in Florida and Tennessee.

In Florida, it seems like the map was drawn using 2020 partisanship. Seats intended to be "D packs" like FL-09 might've gone R on a more neutral config in 2022 (meaning Dems would just win 1 Orlando seat).

In TN, the only seat that really mattered was TN-05 anyways which they effectively cracked.

South Florida was just a copy of what the legislature did. FL09 generally was the same idea in every proposal. DeSantis picked up a few precincts in Polk but only like 15k people. The only way to get FL09 to be more R would have either beent o have FL07 to take back some Orange precincts to push FL09 southwards but that costs FL07. The other option is have the Brevard district lose Indian River and push westwards but no neutral map would have such a seat considering Brevard + Indian River is exactly a seat.

[ProgressiveModerate]

     Interesting comparison. Does seem to make the case that 2022 was an improvement from 2020 for Republicans, even as they fell well short of expectations. I'd note that 2/2 Trump CD Dems were incumbents, but just 1/8 Biden CD Republicans.

Republicans are on track to win the House popular vote.  Somehow, it didn't translate to the results in the swing districts very well.  I did hear something a while back about Democratic gerrymandering focusing on trying to get to 218 (while being vulnerable to a landslide), while Republican gerrymandering focused on maximizing safe seats and playing defense against a wave.  While they probably won't get to 218, it seems like the Democrats' strategy was successful this year.

Only really in Texas and GA, since Republicans were aggressive in Florida and Tennessee.

In Florida, it seems like the map was drawn using 2020 partisanship. Seats intended to be "D packs" like FL-09 might've gone R on a more neutral config in 2022 (meaning Dems would just win 1 Orlando seat).

In TN, the only seat that really mattered was TN-05 anyways which they effectively cracked.

South Florida was just a copy of what the legislature did. FL09 generally was the same idea in every proposal. DeSantis picked up a few precincts in Polk but only like 15k people. The only way to get FL09 to be more R would have either beent o have FL07 to take back some Orange precincts to push FL09 southwards but that costs FL07. The other option is have the Brevard district lose Indian River and push westwards but no neutral map would have such a seat considering Brevard + Indian River is exactly a seat.

Ig what I'm saying is in hindsight, FL-07 could've been slightly weekened to allow for FL-09 to be pushed further out of Orange County and more in R-leaning Polk County. The reason the legistlature's map wasn't redder was because FL-11 didn't come and take in any of Orange County and hence FL-10 was not really as much of a "pack".

It's also very possible that on the State legislative proposal where they created 3 narrow Biden seats in Tampa, Rs would've swept all 3 but it seems like Dems didn't collapse in Tampa as badly as some other areas, partially because they're already pretty close to rock bottom there and partially because Christ is form the Tampa area.

Also, on the legislative map the coastal config of FL-22 would've been very close.

[Person Man]

Whoever becomes president will have the house.

[Mr.Phips]

Whoever becomes president will have the house.

Was probably likely in 2020 (unless Trump managed to barely win by just winning AZ, GA, and WI) and seems likely for 2024 as well.  

[Tekken_Guy]

Whoever becomes president will have the house.

Was probably likely in 2020 (unless Trump managed to barely win by just winning AZ, GA, and WI) and seems likely for 2024 as well.  

Which split is more likely?

[Mr.Phips]

Whoever becomes president will have the house.

Was probably likely in 2020 (unless Trump managed to barely win by just winning AZ, GA, and WI) and seems likely for 2024 as well.  

Which split is more likely?

Maybe Biden winning with a very narrow Republican House?  I’m just looking at what AZ, PA, WI did this year in their governor races.

[Gracile]

DailyKos compiled a complete list with each seat's presidential margin (they gave the uncalled AK-AL, CA-13, and CA-22 races to their current leaders):

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1594785225657225228