AZ-SEN 2022 Megathread: Mastering the Art of the Thiel

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We haven't heard anything on the Gov race, not one poll, but it probably tilts R and the Senate race Leans D, AZ and OH were the only two states to split their votes between SEN and Gov in 2018 and it can do the same again in 2022


I can see Kelly and Ryan winning and Rs winning AZ G and DeWine winning

Ducey and Gianforte were the two Govs that signed Legislation that blocks Fed gun control from their state

[2016]

We haven't heard anything on the Gov race, not one poll, but it probably tilts R and the Senate race Leans D, AZ and OH were the only two states to split their votes between SEN and Gov in 2018 and it can do the same again in 2022


I can see Kelly and Ryan winning and Rs winning AZ G and DeWine winning

Ducey and Gianforte were the two Govs that signed Legislation that blocks Fed gun control from their state

You are definitly a little hackish here in favour of the D's. 2022 will not be like 2018. A lot of the Independent Voters will not support the Democrats Socialist Agenda! Tim Ryan has no chance winning OH, absolutely ZERO!

[S019]

We haven't heard anything on the Gov race, not one poll, but it probably tilts R and the Senate race Leans D, AZ and OH were the only two states to split their votes between SEN and Gov in 2018 and it can do the same again in 2022


I can see Kelly and Ryan winning and Rs winning AZ G and DeWine winning

Ducey and Gianforte were the two Govs that signed Legislation that blocks Fed gun control from their state

You are definitly a little hackish here in favour of the D's. 2022 will not be like 2018. A lot of the Independent Voters will not support the Democrats Socialist Agenda! Tim Ryan has no chance winning OH, absolutely ZERO!

Only a little? Anyone who thinks Tim Ryan will win is a beyond delusional troll who expects a national environment of D+12 or something.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We haven't heard anything on the Gov race, not one poll, but it probably tilts R and the Senate race Leans D, AZ and OH were the only two states to split their votes between SEN and Gov in 2018 and it can do the same again in 2022


I can see Kelly and Ryan winning and Rs winning AZ G and DeWine winning

Ducey and Gianforte were the two Govs that signed Legislation that blocks Fed gun control from their state

You are definitly a little hackish here in favour of the D's. 2022 will not be like 2018. A lot of the Independent Voters will not support the Democrats Socialist Agenda! Tim Ryan has no chance winning OH, absolutely ZERO!

Only a little? Anyone who thinks Tim Ryan will win is a beyond delusional troll who expects a national environment of D+12 or something.

It's not Delusional when PPP poll had Ryan kneck and kneck with all R challengers, PPP poll had Evers and Nelson winning too


PPP IS THE GOLDEN STANDARD OF POLLING EVENTHOUGH IT GOT NC SEN IN 2020 WRONG

I have donated to Ryan and when the maps come out, whenever they do I will make OH 60 percent Ryan and 60 percent DeWibe and 60 percent DeSantis Exaggerated of course

[S019]

We haven't heard anything on the Gov race, not one poll, but it probably tilts R and the Senate race Leans D, AZ and OH were the only two states to split their votes between SEN and Gov in 2018 and it can do the same again in 2022


I can see Kelly and Ryan winning and Rs winning AZ G and DeWine winning

Ducey and Gianforte were the two Govs that signed Legislation that blocks Fed gun control from their state

You are definitly a little hackish here in favour of the D's. 2022 will not be like 2018. A lot of the Independent Voters will not support the Democrats Socialist Agenda! Tim Ryan has no chance winning OH, absolutely ZERO!

Only a little? Anyone who thinks Tim Ryan will win is a beyond delusional troll who expects a national environment of D+12 or something.

It's not Delusional when PPP poll had Ryan kneck and kneck with all R challengers, PPP poll had Evers and Nelson winning too

Ah yes, I remember the impeccable quality of polls one year before the election



Everyone remembers how this was the most hotly contested Senate race in 2016, and how the Democrats picked up the seat and how Democrats won its 18 electoral votes, which delivered them both the Senate and the White House, oh wait....

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We haven't heard anything on the Gov race, not one poll, but it probably tilts R and the Senate race Leans D, AZ and OH were the only two states to split their votes between SEN and Gov in 2018 and it can do the same again in 2022


I can see Kelly and Ryan winning and Rs winning AZ G and DeWine winning

Ducey and Gianforte were the two Govs that signed Legislation that blocks Fed gun control from their state

You are definitly a little hackish here in favour of the D's. 2022 will not be like 2018. A lot of the Independent Voters will not support the Democrats Socialist Agenda! Tim Ryan has no chance winning OH, absolutely ZERO!

Then put it on your Prediction map, I will put it ony prediction map, whenever they come out, I will make it 60 percent Ryan to make you mad too

That's why we have Prediction maps and 60 percent DeWibe

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

We haven't heard anything on the Gov race, not one poll, but it probably tilts R and the Senate race Leans D, AZ and OH were the only two states to split their votes between SEN and Gov in 2018 and it can do the same again in 2022


I can see Kelly and Ryan winning and Rs winning AZ G and DeWine winning

Ducey and Gianforte were the two Govs that signed Legislation that blocks Fed gun control from their state

You are definitly a little hackish here in favour of the D's. 2022 will not be like 2018. A lot of the Independent Voters will not support the Democrats Socialist Agenda! Tim Ryan has no chance winning OH, absolutely ZERO!

Only a little? Anyone who thinks Tim Ryan will win is a beyond delusional troll who expects a national environment of D+12 or something.

It's not Delusional when PPP poll had Ryan kneck and kneck with all R challengers, PPP poll had Evers and Nelson winning too

Ah yes, I remember the impeccable quality of polls one year before the election



Everyone remembers how this was the most hotly contested Senate race in 2016, and how the Democrats picked up the seat and how Democrats won its 18 electoral votes, which delivered them both the Senate and the White House, oh wait....

Those polls are from mid-to-late 2015

[S019]

We haven't heard anything on the Gov race, not one poll, but it probably tilts R and the Senate race Leans D, AZ and OH were the only two states to split their votes between SEN and Gov in 2018 and it can do the same again in 2022


I can see Kelly and Ryan winning and Rs winning AZ G and DeWine winning

Ducey and Gianforte were the two Govs that signed Legislation that blocks Fed gun control from their state

You are definitly a little hackish here in favour of the D's. 2022 will not be like 2018. A lot of the Independent Voters will not support the Democrats Socialist Agenda! Tim Ryan has no chance winning OH, absolutely ZERO!

Only a little? Anyone who thinks Tim Ryan will win is a beyond delusional troll who expects a national environment of D+12 or something.

It's not Delusional when PPP poll had Ryan kneck and kneck with all R challengers, PPP poll had Evers and Nelson winning too

Ah yes, I remember the impeccable quality of polls one year before the election



Everyone remembers how this was the most hotly contested Senate race in 2016, and how the Democrats picked up the seat and how Democrats won its 18 electoral votes, which delivered them both the Senate and the White House, oh wait....

Those polls are from mid-to-late 2015

Olawakandi is citing polls from early 2021 to make his argument, so this is a fair comparison.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Split voting is very popular between H and statewide offices


NC split it's votes with Gov and Senator, I don't see why it's so hard for users to believe that OH, Ryan/DeWine, GA WARNOCK/Kemp, NH Hassan/Ayotte, AZ Kelly/RG, KS Moran/Kelly and FL Rubio/Crist, that it can't happen between Gov and Senator

Look at IA we have 1 D Rep and R Gov and Sen, split voting can happen

Afro Americans make up 15 percent of OH and FL and NC, and like CRIST and Ryan, despises DeSsntis and Josh MANDEL, that's why DeSantis is getting crushed by Biden in a GE polls he almost lost to Gillium

Ryan isn't Cordray

[S019]

Split voting is very popular between H and statewide offices

Okay sure maybe

NC split it's votes with Gov and Senator, I don't see why it's so hard for users to believe that OH, Ryan/DeWine, GA WARNOCK/Kemp, NH Hassan/Ayotte, AZ Kelly/RG, KS Moran/Kelly and FL Rubio/Crist, that it can't happen between Gov and Senator

Sure but ticket splitting is declining, especially at the federal level. For instance, look at last year, Democrats had high hopes of picking up Senate seats in deep red states like AK, SC, MT, KS, and IA, none of it came to fruition, due to increased polarization. If a split did happen in OH, these dynamics make it far likelier that it'd be DeWine who loses, simply because statewide races are less polarized. As for NC, the Cunningham scandal did probably swing that race and Cooper massively underperformed expectations.

Look at IA we have 1 D Rep and R Gov and Sen, split voting can happen

Ah yes, but people were insisting said R governor and R Senator would lose (just please go and look back at the 2018 and 2020 threads on Iowa). Also Democrats lost 2 congressional districts in Iowa and only barely held on to the third (because Des Moines is a major chunk of it). This is not a good example.

Afro Americans make up 15 percent of OH and FL and NC, and like CRIST and Ryan, despises DeSsntis and Josh MANDEL, that's why DeSantis is getting crushed by Biden in a GE polls he almost lost to Gillium

Here's the deal, those voters are already overwhelmingly Democratic. The reason that OH has swung so Republican is that the racists hicks/deplorables/fascists in Appalachia have swung hard to the right. Even the Mahoning Valley and the I-90 corridor is collapsing for Democrats. There is no good news for Democrats in the state except Columbus and Cincinnati, put simply, they are beyond screwed.

Ryan isn't Cordray

Yes, but the way that you and others talk about him, you'd think he's a clone of Sherrod Brown (who will lose in 2024 by a sizable margin anyways), when he's clearly not.

Also please take this to the OH thread, this is a thread about AZ, not OH.

[2016]

We haven't heard anything on the Gov race, not one poll, but it probably tilts R and the Senate race Leans D, AZ and OH were the only two states to split their votes between SEN and Gov in 2018 and it can do the same again in 2022


I can see Kelly and Ryan winning and Rs winning AZ G and DeWine winning

Ducey and Gianforte were the two Govs that signed Legislation that blocks Fed gun control from their state

You are definitly a little hackish here in favour of the D's. 2022 will not be like 2018. A lot of the Independent Voters will not support the Democrats Socialist Agenda! Tim Ryan has no chance winning OH, absolutely ZERO!

Only a little? Anyone who thinks Tim Ryan will win is a beyond delusional troll who expects a national environment of D+12 or something.

It's not Delusional when PPP poll had Ryan kneck and kneck with all R challengers, PPP poll had Evers and Nelson winning too

Ah yes, I remember the impeccable quality of polls one year before the election



Everyone remembers how this was the most hotly contested Senate race in 2016, and how the Democrats picked up the seat and how Democrats won its 18 electoral votes, which delivered them both the Senate and the White House, oh wait....

Those polls are from mid-to-late 2015

Olawakandi is citing polls from early 2021 to make his argument, so this is a fair comparison.

Olawakandi is too hackish. He seriously thinks that Democrats will get 2018 Midterm Level Turnout in 2022 when we that this total Nonsense and won't happen.

Looking at the Statement by Senator Kelly that Biden did not talk about the Border Crisis at all during his Speech sounds like someone is already very afraid running in a Biden Midterm. How does Kelly explain tue Biden Administrations big Spending Policies and Socialist Agenda to the Voters of AZ. I am curious how this will work?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We haven't heard anything on the Gov race, not one poll, but it probably tilts R and the Senate race Leans D, AZ and OH were the only two states to split their votes between SEN and Gov in 2018 and it can do the same again in 2022


I can see Kelly and Ryan winning and Rs winning AZ G and DeWine winning

Ducey and Gianforte were the two Govs that signed Legislation that blocks Fed gun control from their state

You are definitly a little hackish here in favour of the D's. 2022 will not be like 2018. A lot of the Independent Voters will not support the Democrats Socialist Agenda! Tim Ryan has no chance winning OH, absolutely ZERO!

Only a little? Anyone who thinks Tim Ryan will win is a beyond delusional troll who expects a national environment of D+12 or something.

It's not Delusional when PPP poll had Ryan kneck and kneck with all R challengers, PPP poll had Evers and Nelson winning too

Ah yes, I remember the impeccable quality of polls one year before the election



Everyone remembers how this was the most hotly contested Senate race in 2016, and how the Democrats picked up the seat and how Democrats won its 18 electoral votes, which delivered them both the Senate and the White House, oh wait....

Those polls are from mid-to-late 2015

Olawakandi is citing polls from early 2021 to make his argument, so this is a fair comparison.

Olawakandi is too hackish. He seriously thinks that Democrats will get 2018 Midterm Level Turnout in 2022 when we that this total Nonsense and won't happen.

Looking at the Statement by Senator Kelly that Biden did not talk about the Border Crisis at all during his Speech sounds like someone is already very afraid running in a Biden Midterm. How does Kelly explain tue Biden Administrations big Spending Policies and Socialist Agenda to the Voters of AZ. I am curious how this will work?

I am not hackish, you really think you guys are gonna win IA, OH, NC and FL forever, they will never vote D ever again and we won the PVI only by 4 in 2008/2012, like I said I don't care what you say

I will make it 60 percent  Ryan to just make you mad when the maps come out CRIST, Sand and Ryan next yr to make you mad

D's lead on Generic ballot 47/42

It's not nonsense when PPP polls have Ryan and Nelson and Evers tied or leading, but DeWine will won

[xavier110]

Unbeatable Queen Kimberly Yee is running for governor, because she fears the Astronaut Senator. BTW, her campaign intro video is unhinged — and she’s supposed to be one of the “normal” Republicans LOL. I know she’s got to survive a primary, but Jesus.

Now the question is: will it be Ducey or a lunatic for the GOP nom here? My guess is a lunatic prevails.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Unbeatable Queen Kimberly Yee is running for governor, because she fears the Astronaut Senator. BTW, her campaign intro video is unhinged — and she’s supposed to be one of the “normal” Republicans LOL. I know she’s got to survive a primary, but Jesus.

Now the question is: will it be Ducey or a lunatic for the GOP nom here? My guess is a lunatic prevails.

You can just say 'a lunatic'

[S019]

https://twitter.com/JonMIPol/status/1396202552904060930

Trump comes out against Brnovich. If Democrats keep the Senate they can thank the God Emperor and his deranged rants for nominating lunatics like Parnell in Pennsylvania, while sabotaging high quality candidates like Brnovich in Arizona. This guy is probably the single biggest obstacle to his own party taking back the Senate.

[MargieCat]

https://twitter.com/JonMIPol/status/1396202552904060930
Trump comes out against Brnovich. If Democrats keep the Senate they can thank the God Emperor and his deranged rants for nominating lunatics like Parnell in Pennsylvania, while sabotaging high quality candidates like Brnovich in Arizona. This guy is probably the single biggest obstacle to his own party taking back the Senate.

It's true.

Had Trump won Arizona or lost it gracefully, he would have likely endorsed Ducey for senate.

Ducey had a great chance of flipping Kelly's seat in 2022; and Brnovich could have run for governor and the GOP would have likely retained it.

Instead, Trump went crazy which in turn caused Kelli Ward to act really nutty. Kelli Ward's post-election conspiracies and censuring of Ducey, Flake, and Cindy McCain are going to drive out the remaining moderates and independents.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly is the best candidate D's have next to Jackson and Ryan

[Lognog]

https://twitter.com/JonMIPol/status/1396202552904060930

Trump comes out against Brnovich. If Democrats keep the Senate they can thank the God Emperor and his deranged rants for nominating lunatics like Parnell in Pennsylvania, while sabotaging high quality candidates like Brnovich in Arizona. This guy is probably the single biggest obstacle to his own party taking back the Senate.

4D chess move of hurting the chances of the most (general election) electable candidate to own the people not supporting the big lie.

Seriously, this is how they end up with Ducey and he completely flops this winnable race for R's. Literally 2010 over again. Kelly is by no means unbeatable, unless Republicans force him to be

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/JonMIPol/status/1396202552904060930

Trump comes out against Brnovich. If Democrats keep the Senate they can thank the God Emperor and his deranged rants for nominating lunatics like Parnell in Pennsylvania, while sabotaging high quality candidates like Brnovich in Arizona. This guy is probably the single biggest obstacle to his own party taking back the Senate.

Finally! Some good electoral news for Democrats in 2022. Keep those Arizona trends going!

[2016]

IMO Republicans have a better chance winning in Nevada than in Arizona anyways.

[SnowLabrador]

Hot take: Even someone like Gosar, Ward, or Biggs would have a good chance at winning. This is a Biden midterm after all.

[MT Treasurer]

I don’t think Brnovich would have been stronger than a generic R, and there’s still plenty of generic R options to choose from here. I’m not too worried about this, but I agree that Trump needs to stay out of primaries.

I also think that it’s becoming more and more likely that some well-funded businessman will win the primary here (Blake Masters, Jim Lamon).

[S019]

I don’t think Brnovich would have been stronger than a generic R, and there’s still plenty of generic R options to choose from here. I’m not too worried about this, but I agree that Trump needs to stay out of primaries.

I also think that it’s becoming more and more likely that some well-funded businessman will win the primary here (Blake Masters, Jim Lamon).

Blake Masters is the Thiel candidate, he probably isn't that much better than a crazy, Lamon would probably be fine, I haven't heard much about him.

[MT Treasurer]

Blake Masters is the Thiel candidate, he probably isn't that much better than a crazy, Lamon would probably be fine, I haven't heard much about him.

So "crazy" / "lunatic" = conservative? Because then every R nominee in every single battleground state is going to qualify as a "lunatic." The fact that Atlas of all places deems a Republican insufficiently moderate (as if ideology is more important than messaging/branding) doesn’t "prove" that they’re not "electable," especially in a favorable environment. Way too early to call Kelly heavily favored in this race.

[S019]

Blake Masters is the Thiel candidate, he probably isn't that much better than a crazy, Lamon would probably be fine, I haven't heard much about him.

So "crazy" / "lunatic" = conservative? Because then every R nominee in every single battleground state is going to qualify as a "lunatic." The fact that Atlas of all places deems a Republican insufficiently moderate (as if ideology is more important than messaging/branding) doesn’t "prove" that they’re not "electable," especially in a favorable environment. Way too early to call Kelly heavily favored in this race.

I agree with you that national environment does matter quite a lot, which is why Kelly is not heavily favored, and I don't think anyone believes that, but Thiel has a reputation of supporting pretty extreme candidates, for instance he bankrolled Kobach and JD Vance has close ties to him, too. However, candidate quality, while overrated can matter somewhat, I don't think anyone denies that Sue Lowden would have won NV SEN in 2010, Jane Norton would have won CO in 2010, etc. Kelly absolutely is beatable, and I'd say it's a tossup right now, but the Republicans really have no one to blame but themselves, if they lose this race. Also outside of Wisconsin (RoJo is way stronger than people give him credit for, and he had a history of making nutty statements well before 2020, yet he still has a unique brand, that allows him to win), North Carolina, and New Hampshire, it does seem like the GOP is struggling with candidate recruitment, and that alone can hurt a party's chances. I agree that Republicans are quite likely to take back both Houses of Congress next year and think they win at least one of NV/AZ/NH, unless Biden is abnormally popular or they messed up candidate recruitment big time. However, I do think in Arizona especially where the Republicans need to win the types of voters that have been moving away from them in recent years, especially compared to other states, candidate quality will matter more than most states. I don't exactly think any Republican is going to win the swingy Trump/Sinema/Biden voters, but the right Republican could, in fact we saw this with AZ's ticket splitting in 2018. TL;DR by no means is Kelly a lock if the GOP nominates a candidate who is extreme, but it definitely complicates their chances, if that happens.