AZ-SEN 2022 Megathread: Mastering the Art of the Thiel

[Not Me, Us]

Do yall have any reasoning or evidence to make this race tilt R? Kelly underperforming is not a good reason since Dems underperformed pretty much everywhere at every level.

It's tossup/tilt D till I see more.

It's a swing state with a strong Republican recruit in a Democratic midterm in a state Biden barely won. It's not unreasonable to point out that the fundamentals of this race favor Republicans. It's a toss-up at best, and that's being generous to Democrats.

[MT Treasurer]

Do yall have any reasoning or evidence to make this race tilt R? Kelly underperforming is not a good reason since Dems underperformed pretty much everywhere at every level.

It's tossup/tilt D till I see more.

It's a swing state with a strong Republican recruit in a Democratic midterm in a state Biden barely won. It's not unreasonable to point out that the fundamentals of this race favor Republicans. It's a toss-up at best, and that's being generous to Democrats.

Remember that at this point in 2009, AR-SEN 2010 flipping was considered a "bold" prediction on this forum, especially given Lincoln's "strengths" as an incumbent and the "mediocre" GOP bench. POLITICO also had a fun piece about that race in March 2009:

Is Sen. Blanche L. Lincoln (D-Ark.) in trouble?

Recent Arkansas trendlines would suggest otherwise. Democrats hold three of the state’s four House seats, both Senate seats, the governorship, both state legislative chambers and all seven statewide constitutional offices.

But President Barack Obama’s 20-point loss and recent polling data have insiders wondering whether Lincoln could face a tough reelection for a third term in 2010.

Republicans, however, may not be able to take advantage of the situation. Just as in 2008 when the state party failed to find a challenger against Pryor, the GOP remains without a Senate candidate. [...]

Brummett explained the GOP predicament.

“Republicans have no bench in Arkansas. They’ve got nothing,” said Brummett. “There is no farm team. There is no bench.”

The GOP’s top choice to challenge Lincoln, Mike Huckabee — the former Arkansas governor and Republican 2008 presidential candidate who now hosts a cable news talk show — has made clear to party leaders that he has no interest in running.

https://www.politico.com/story/2009/03/is-arkansas-still-land-of-lincoln-020638

Obviously AZ isn’t AR, but the point is that people tend to make the same arguments again and again when it comes to vulnerable incumbents, including in AR-SEN 2010 and this race ('lack' of a bench on the other side, other party's 'top choice' not running, recent strength of the incumbent's party, latest polling*, etc.) while losing sight of the fundamentals.

*PPP had Lincoln ahead by 8-11 points in March 2009.

I believe CT-SEN 2010 was widely considered more likely to flip than AR-SEN as well (reminds me of all the NH hype). The bottom line is that early conventional wisdom is rarely accurate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly isn't losing even if we lose NH

[CookieDamage]

Do yall have any reasoning or evidence to make this race tilt R? Kelly underperforming is not a good reason since Dems underperformed pretty much everywhere at every level.

It's tossup/tilt D till I see more.

It's a swing state with a strong Republican recruit in a Democratic midterm in a state Biden barely won. It's not unreasonable to point out that the fundamentals of this race favor Republicans. It's a toss-up at best, and that's being generous to Democrats.

What fundamentals? If Biden is still popular and the economy is strong, those are Dem favoring fundamentals. Brnovich being a good recruit doesn't mean it's a tilt R race.

Also, a generous rating would be likely D, not tossup lmao.

Remember that at this point in 2009, AR-SEN 2010 flipping was considered a "bold" prediction on this forum, especially given Lincoln's "strengths" as an incumbent and the "mediocre" GOP bench. POLITICO also had a fun piece about that race in March 2009:

Is Sen. Blanche L. Lincoln (D-Ark.) in trouble?

Recent Arkansas trendlines would suggest otherwise. Democrats hold three of the state’s four House seats, both Senate seats, the governorship, both state legislative chambers and all seven statewide constitutional offices.

But President Barack Obama’s 20-point loss and recent polling data have insiders wondering whether Lincoln could face a tough reelection for a third term in 2010.

Republicans, however, may not be able to take advantage of the situation. Just as in 2008 when the state party failed to find a challenger against Pryor, the GOP remains without a Senate candidate. [...]

Brummett explained the GOP predicament.

“Republicans have no bench in Arkansas. They’ve got nothing,” said Brummett. “There is no farm team. There is no bench.”

The GOP’s top choice to challenge Lincoln, Mike Huckabee — the former Arkansas governor and Republican 2008 presidential candidate who now hosts a cable news talk show — has made clear to party leaders that he has no interest in running.

https://www.politico.com/story/2009/03/is-arkansas-still-land-of-lincoln-020638

Obviously AZ isn’t AR, but the point is that people tend to make the same arguments again and again when it comes to vulnerable incumbents, including in AR-SEN 2010 and this race ('lack' of a bench on the other side, other party's 'top choice' not running, recent strength of the incumbent's party, latest polling*, etc.) while losing sight of the fundamentals.

*PPP had Lincoln ahead by 8-11 points in March 2009.

I believe CT-SEN 2010 was widely considered more likely to flip than AR-SEN as well (reminds me of all the NH hype).

Again with these apparently Republican-favoring fundamentals in 2022.

In 2010:

Obama approval rating: 44% approve, 48% disapprove (by election day 2010).
Unemployment (US, as a proxy for the general health of the economy economy): 9.8%
How AR trended from 2004 - 2012: R

Now:
Biden approval: 53% approve, 41% disapprove (June 2021)
Unemployment: 5.8% (projected to fall even more)
Unemployment (AZ): 6.7%
How AZ trended from 2012 - 2020: D


If these two factors are even remotely the same by Nov 22 if not better then Kelly is hanging on lmao. If the economy improves by election day and Biden is above water, Kelly will win. In fact, Biden approval isn't even as important as how the economy is doing, imo. Other dems might lose depending on how their area is trending, but Arizona is trending Democratic and has been for years, that's not gonna change overnight. Automatically rushing to make this race tilt R is extremely premature and is flying in the face of the fundamentals y'all claim to be so cognizant of.

The bottom line is that early conventional wisdom is rarely accurate.

I'm sensing some cognitive dissonance...

[wbrocks67]

Do yall have any reasoning or evidence to make this race tilt R? Kelly underperforming is not a good reason since Dems underperformed pretty much everywhere at every level.

It's tossup/tilt D till I see more.

Also, Kelly underperformed 'polls' but outperformed Biden, so he didn't really underperform.

[Terfnerf]

https://mobile.twitter.com/bgmasters/status/1413681902347718658

[Minnesota Mike]

Do yall have any reasoning or evidence to make this race tilt R? Kelly underperforming is not a good reason since Dems underperformed pretty much everywhere at every level.

It's tossup/tilt D till I see more.

It's a swing state with a strong Republican recruit in a Democratic midterm in a state Biden barely won. It's not unreasonable to point out that the fundamentals of this race favor Republicans. It's a toss-up at best, and that's being generous to Democrats.

I assume the strong Republican recruit you reference is Brnovich. There is no guarantee he is going to be the nominee. He is going to have to survive a potentially bitter primary including against Peter Thiel's guy who will have a huge PAC behind him. Whoever does win will face an incumbent who does not have to spend in the primaries and who has proven he can raise a metric sh**t ton of $$$$. There is a reason almost all incumbents start off as favorites. Personally I would have it lean D at this point can understand a tossup rating. I just don't see the tilt/lean Republican talk though.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://mobile.twitter.com/bgmasters/status/1413681902347718658

That should be a disqualifying picture right there.

[xavier110]

From the name to his look to his politics, Blake Masters is literally a comic book villain lol.

I seriously doubt he occupies the mainstream lane or wins over the red meat Trumpers, no matter how hard Peter tries to buy him a seat

[MargieCat]

I'd take this tweet with a grain of salt, but it's interesting nonetheless.https://twitter.com/ChipotleExtra/status/1415220610846793733

[xavier110]

I'd take this tweet with a grain of salt, but it's interesting nonetheless.https://twitter.com/ChipotleExtra/status/1415220610846793733

Sure, Thiel has Trump in his pocket, but it seems just as likely that a Biggs/Gosar crashes this party. It would make zero sense for Trump to back Masters over one of them.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Vance won't be Prez of US

[Lognog]

I'd take this tweet with a grain of salt, but it's interesting nonetheless.https://twitter.com/ChipotleExtra/status/1415220610846793733

1. could certainly see Trump doing this, and I hope he does because that would make Kelly's life much easier

2. I doubt it but it's possible. Not really many good choices for him anyways while also not any anti-trumpers

3. At this point I'll be surpised if Johnson retires. He really believes his own BS and thinks he has a duty to save the country from his imaginary enemies

4. yeah this one is pretty obvious

[Gracile]

Why are we believing some Twitter GOP hack rando?

[LabourJersey]

I'd take this tweet with a grain of salt, but it's interesting nonetheless.https://twitter.com/ChipotleExtra/status/1415220610846793733

Wouldn't Johnson have publicly stated he'd be retiring if that rumor is true?

[MargieCat]

I'd take this tweet with a grain of salt, but it's interesting nonetheless.https://twitter.com/ChipotleExtra/status/1415220610846793733

Wouldn't Johnson have publicly stated he'd be retiring if that rumor is true?

Johnson left it in the air.

Originally he said he'd only run for two terms but then he walked it back.

Then he said he'd prefer to retire. Although he is receiving pressure from Trump and probably Rick Scott/Mitch McConnell to run again.

Republicans might have a better chance at holding the seat without Johnson, since he's controversial.

[THG]

I'd take this tweet with a grain of salt, but it's interesting nonetheless.https://twitter.com/ChipotleExtra/status/1415220610846793733

I have friends well connected in conservative/GOP circles and from my experience, they are not to be taken 100% seriously as many facets are simply rumors and rumblings.

[LabourJersey]

I'd take this tweet with a grain of salt, but it's interesting nonetheless.https://twitter.com/ChipotleExtra/status/1415220610846793733

Wouldn't Johnson have publicly stated he'd be retiring if that rumor is true?

Johnson left it in the air.

Originally he said he'd only run for two terms but then he walked it back.

Then he said he'd prefer to retire. Although he is receiving pressure from Trump and probably Rick Scott/Mitch McConnell to run again.

Republicans might have a better chance at holding the seat without Johnson, since he's controversial.

I really doubt if that's true: name recognition and incumbency matter a lot, and maybe now more than ever.

But back to AZ--how much of an effect for a Trump endorsement even have on the R primary btw Masters and Brnovich?

[MargieCat]

I'd take this tweet with a grain of salt, but it's interesting nonetheless.https://twitter.com/ChipotleExtra/status/1415220610846793733

Wouldn't Johnson have publicly stated he'd be retiring if that rumor is true?

Johnson left it in the air.

Originally he said he'd only run for two terms but then he walked it back.

Then he said he'd prefer to retire. Although he is receiving pressure from Trump and probably Rick Scott/Mitch McConnell to run again.

Republicans might have a better chance at holding the seat without Johnson, since he's controversial.

I really doubt if that's true: name recognition and incumbency matter a lot, and maybe now more than ever.

But back to AZ--how much of an effect for a Trump endorsement even have on the R primary btw Masters and Brnovich?

It will be interesting to see what happens when Trump endorses a true underdog.

He endorsed Budd in NC, despite McCrory and Walker being more well-known.

Brnovich seems like the frontrunner until one of the representatives launches a bid. I don't know if Trump's endorsement would help Masters defeat Brnovich if no one else enters.

And back to Wisconsin, I think Gallagher or Steil would be harder than Johnson to defeat.

[xavier110]

I'd take this tweet with a grain of salt, but it's interesting nonetheless.https://twitter.com/ChipotleExtra/status/1415220610846793733

Wouldn't Johnson have publicly stated he'd be retiring if that rumor is true?

Johnson left it in the air.

Originally he said he'd only run for two terms but then he walked it back.

Then he said he'd prefer to retire. Although he is receiving pressure from Trump and probably Rick Scott/Mitch McConnell to run again.

Republicans might have a better chance at holding the seat without Johnson, since he's controversial.

I really doubt if that's true: name recognition and incumbency matter a lot, and maybe now more than ever.

But back to AZ--how much of an effect for a Trump endorsement even have on the R primary btw Masters and Brnovich?

I think a Trump endorsement of Masters would be significant if it’s essentially a Brno v Masters race. But I doubt it will be that neat. Either Biggs or Gosar will jump in.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs aren't winning this race, because Gov race without Ducey is Lean D

[xavier110]

Rs aren't winning this race, because Gov race without Ducey is Lean D

There’s no way AZ Gov is ever lean D. Kelly’s race could get into tilt D/lean D territory depending on the GOP candidate, but Hobbs will be easily caricatured as a shrill, Hillary-esque lib despite (because of?) her great efforts to push back against the Trumpers. She also lacks the political dexterity of a Sinema.

She needs a lot of things to go well to win, IMO, and the Maricopa down ballot results from 2020 do not inspire great confidence in the average AZ voter.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/GeneralBrnovich/status/1449001368258179090

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/GeneralBrnovich/status/1449001368258179090

What the hell is this?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I'd take this tweet with a grain of salt, but it's interesting nonetheless.https://twitter.com/ChipotleExtra/status/1415220610846793733

Wouldn't Johnson have publicly stated he'd be retiring if that rumor is true?

Johnson left it in the air.

Originally he said he'd only run for two terms but then he walked it back.

Then he said he'd prefer to retire. Although he is receiving pressure from Trump and probably Rick Scott/Mitch McConnell to run again.

Republicans might have a better chance at holding the seat without Johnson, since he's controversial.

I really doubt if that's true: name recognition and incumbency matter a lot, and maybe now more than ever.

But back to AZ--how much of an effect for a Trump endorsement even have on the R primary btw Masters and Brnovich?

I think a Trump endorsement of Masters would be significant if it’s essentially a Brno v Masters race. But I doubt it will be that neat. Either Biggs or Gosar will jump in.

I doubt Biggs or Gosar will jump in.
Biggs looks like he's aiming for House leadership some day, and Gosar is unelectable in Arizona on a state level.