AZ-SEN 2022 Megathread: Mastering the Art of the Thiel

[MargieCat]

I thought Ducey for awhile. But Trump destroyed his chances.

I think Andy Biggs will run against Kelly.

[MargieCat]

I believe that Ducey was going to run and changed his mind after Trump turned on him.

[MargieCat]

https://twitter.com/JonMIPol/status/1396202552904060930
Trump comes out against Brnovich. If Democrats keep the Senate they can thank the God Emperor and his deranged rants for nominating lunatics like Parnell in Pennsylvania, while sabotaging high quality candidates like Brnovich in Arizona. This guy is probably the single biggest obstacle to his own party taking back the Senate.

It's true.

Had Trump won Arizona or lost it gracefully, he would have likely endorsed Ducey for senate.

Ducey had a great chance of flipping Kelly's seat in 2022; and Brnovich could have run for governor and the GOP would have likely retained it.

Instead, Trump went crazy which in turn caused Kelli Ward to act really nutty. Kelli Ward's post-election conspiracies and censuring of Ducey, Flake, and Cindy McCain are going to drive out the remaining moderates and independents.

[MargieCat]

Ducey and Brnovich would have been the GOP's best recruits. But Trump torpedoed both of them.

It will probably be someone like Biggs or Ward.

Trump also could have set his differences with Flake aside and endorsed him for reelection back in 2018. He would have won if Trump didn't destroy him.

[MargieCat]

I expected him to enter and am far from certain he’ll win the primary, but his confirmation is enough for me to move this race to tilt R.

Might Trump's already demonstrated dislike for Brnovich possibly hamper him in the primary and even the general election though? I'm still keeping this as a tossup for now.

I think it will hurt him if Trump keeps on attacking him.

I assume Kelli Ward will follow suit and attack Brnovich.

The best possible candidate for a flip was Doug Ducey. Trump stuck a pin in that...

Brnovich is a good candidate and has a shot if Trump would keep his fat face out of it.

I expect Biggs or Ward to enter this race.

[MargieCat]

I'd take this tweet with a grain of salt, but it's interesting nonetheless.https://twitter.com/ChipotleExtra/status/1415220610846793733

[MargieCat]

I'd take this tweet with a grain of salt, but it's interesting nonetheless.https://twitter.com/ChipotleExtra/status/1415220610846793733

Wouldn't Johnson have publicly stated he'd be retiring if that rumor is true?

Johnson left it in the air.

Originally he said he'd only run for two terms but then he walked it back.

Then he said he'd prefer to retire. Although he is receiving pressure from Trump and probably Rick Scott/Mitch McConnell to run again.

Republicans might have a better chance at holding the seat without Johnson, since he's controversial.

[MargieCat]

I'd take this tweet with a grain of salt, but it's interesting nonetheless.https://twitter.com/ChipotleExtra/status/1415220610846793733

Wouldn't Johnson have publicly stated he'd be retiring if that rumor is true?

Johnson left it in the air.

Originally he said he'd only run for two terms but then he walked it back.

Then he said he'd prefer to retire. Although he is receiving pressure from Trump and probably Rick Scott/Mitch McConnell to run again.

Republicans might have a better chance at holding the seat without Johnson, since he's controversial.

I really doubt if that's true: name recognition and incumbency matter a lot, and maybe now more than ever.

But back to AZ--how much of an effect for a Trump endorsement even have on the R primary btw Masters and Brnovich?

It will be interesting to see what happens when Trump endorses a true underdog.

He endorsed Budd in NC, despite McCrory and Walker being more well-known.

Brnovich seems like the frontrunner until one of the representatives launches a bid. I don't know if Trump's endorsement would help Masters defeat Brnovich if no one else enters.

And back to Wisconsin, I think Gallagher or Steil would be harder than Johnson to defeat.

[MargieCat]

I honestly think Masters would lose to Kelly. Masters is everything the Arizona GOP dreams of - and that’s not typically how Arizona votes in recent times.

Another thing to keep in mind is that Kelly is a veteran, as is Brnovich.

Masters does not have a military background, and veterans are a big part of the electorate in AZ.

[MargieCat]

I honestly think Masters would lose to Kelly. Masters is everything the Arizona GOP dreams of - and that’s not typically how Arizona votes in recent times.

Masters presents himself as more of a moderate than Brnovich. His optics are fantastic.

"America’s most powerful institutions conspired to manipulate the 2020 election. Donald Trump should be president today."

This is moderate? Okay then.

Agreed. Moderate he is not.

[MargieCat]

This must have been a very disappointing night for Masters.

While Trump was pretty complimentary towards his candidacy, it didn't equate to an endorsement. Brnovich was and is still the frontrunner, until Trump endorses otherwise.

[MargieCat]

I wonder if Ducey is regretting his decision not to enter the senate race after Kemp and Raffensperger won in Georgia.

When is Arizona's filing deadline?

Ducey would easily be able to get establishment support from Rick Scott and Mitch McConnell.

[MargieCat]

I just got back from Scottsdale 2 days ago.

From the telelvison ads and street signs, it seems like Brnovich is not even in the race. Lots of commercials and signs for Lamon, Masters, and McGuire.

Brnovich did not attend the most recent debate either. It's like his campaign just went dormant.

[MargieCat]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1554713389926162432

[MargieCat]

When Masters speaks, I keep thinking of Kelly Loeffler.

That robotic monotone voice uncharismatically blurting out conservative talking points. It's like him and Kelly Loeffler were conceived in the same laboratory.