AZ-SEN 2022 Megathread: Mastering the Art of the Thiel

[SnowLabrador]

Decided I'd start this one. It's never too early, is it?

[SnowLabrador]

Who could convince McSally to run again?

I hope that happens; unless she does, Kelly's probably the underdog.

[SnowLabrador]

Pretty good numbers, but it means next to nothing, as Pericles said.

[SnowLabrador]

This is more likely to flip than Georgia.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1387595838994649091

If he keeps up this "moderate hero" rhetoric, he will lose.

[SnowLabrador]

Hot take: Even someone like Gosar, Ward, or Biggs would have a good chance at winning. This is a Biden midterm after all.

[SnowLabrador]

https://www.brnoforaz.com/

Brnovich in.

Time to change the thread title to something like "The Mark to Beat."

[SnowLabrador]

https://www.brnoforaz.com/

Brnovich in.

Time to change the thread title to something like "The Mark to Beat."

True. Both men are named Mark. Last year, in Montana, both candidates were named Steve. I'd be curious to know other political races in recent times where both candidates had the same first name.

In all seriousness, since the state legislature is moving to transfer election oversight to the AG office, it looks like Brnovich will be able to rig it in his favor a la Brian Kemp. I fully expect Kelly to lose.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/GeneralBrnovich/status/1449001368258179090

What the hell is this?

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1453390235149209600

Reportedly Ducey is reconsidering. I hope he does run, that might be the only way Kelly wins. That said, I don't think he's going to.

[SnowLabrador]

Congratulations, Senator-elect Masters.

[SnowLabrador]

I honestly think Masters would lose to Kelly. Masters is everything the Arizona GOP dreams of - and that’s not typically how Arizona votes in recent times.

Masters presents himself as more of a moderate than Brnovich. His optics are fantastic.

Kelly's going to lose either way.

[SnowLabrador]

Well if Kelly loses, it will not because of a lack of money:
https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1479454692203712512

Agreed. However, if the 2020 elections taught me anything, it's that fundraising means next to nothing.

[SnowLabrador]

If Trump doesn't endorse Masters, Brnovich will be the nominee.

[SnowLabrador]

So Kelly is up +4 against a generic Republican. I'm not sure if that's good or bad for him.

[SnowLabrador]

Masters: 49-51% chance at winning general election
Brnovich: 55-60% chance at winning general election

Let's dispel with this notion that Brnovich is more electable than Masters. Master's promo videos and campaign style are all calm and geared toward suburbanites in Arizona, even if his ideology is more geared towards the midwest. Meanwhile, Brnovich showcases himself with hard rock music while wielding nunchucks.

Electability is not defined by moderation, but rather by how much one can excite one's voters to go to the polls. The myth that electability is defined by moderation should've been shattered the instant Trump won.

[SnowLabrador]

A libertarian qualified for the ballot in this race. Wasn’t expecting that, the most interesting development after a sleepy few months.

Who do you think the GOP nominee will be as of now?

[SnowLabrador]

Trump would be a fool to endorse Masters, he's probably the weakest candidate to run against Kelly.

That would go to Lamon.

Eh, I kinda think Lamon is as “generic R” as possible. He has less baggage than Masters, IMO, and hasn’t done everything to please no one like Brno.

Masters has no baggage.

Masters is a Thiel-backed conspiracy theorist.

Aren't most Republicans Thiel-backed conspiracy theorists?

[SnowLabrador]

In the grand scheme of things, it wasn't that long ago that comments like this would end a campaign. Look how far we've fallen as a country.

[SnowLabrador]

Unfortunately for some, most swing voters won't remember (or care about) these comments by Election Day, even if Kelly runs ads attacking him on this nonstop.

I agree on this. All they care about is gas prices.

[SnowLabrador]

Yeah, Brnovich has no chance.

[SnowLabrador]

This is the guy who people think is prime to beat Kelly?

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1550640231170326528

To be fair, isn't that the standard GOP position now? Quite frankly, some Republican politicians like John Bennett have called for murdering Fauci.

Of course, that doesn't make it okay. It's appalling that a man who's done nothing but try to keep people safe during a pandemic is facing so many death threats. I'm just saying that this isn't an extreme position relative to other Republicans.

[SnowLabrador]

Tilt R -> Likely R.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/patriottakes/status/1554502398353104896?s=20&t=auzB9RqE0...

This should be illegal.

Welcome to America.

[SnowLabrador]

AZ Senate Debate is tonight 6PM AZ time
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vt7oJ1lnfro

I might watch David Pakman's livestream of it. Funnily enough, I called into his show a few weeks ago. Nice guy.