AZ-SEN 2022 Megathread: Mastering the Art of the Thiel

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So much for PROGRESSIVE MODERATE DREAM R MAP, DUCEY WAS JUST CENSURED BY THE AZ GOP, AZ IS LIKELY D




53-47 looks like a real possibility

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is good news for Ds

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly was never endangered unless Ducey challenged him, only Progressive Moderate had Kelly losing on his R favored map

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nelson lost by .5 to Rick Scott, Kelly isn't running against Ducey he is running against Briggs

Scott was much more popular than he is now

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly is not Sinema, fortunately, Sinema is running in 2024 Prez or she would be DOA.  Kelly is a vet and we have had Vets win before like Jack Murtha. That's why Ryan and Jackson will win, they appeal to vets. Mandel is a vet and Ryan appeal to vets and Jackson is a Vet himself

Nelson lost to Rick Scott whom was way more popular than he is now

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly isn't Sinema, Sinema is very fortunate she is running in a Prez yr not 2022 or she would be DOA.

Kelly wins

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brnovich would make this race tilt R

No

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly is likely to win, Biden is at 53% approvals and the PVI is likely to be 3.0 like last time, Biden is not in the mid 40s

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Let the Rs keep underestimating Biden and Kelly they are 0/3 against him and haven't won the PVI since 2016, what makes 2022 any different, after the insurrection

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Generic ballot is 47/42 D Kelly will win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs are gonna spend millions on an unwinnable AZ race just like D's are gonna pour millions on Beasley instead of Jackson, ha?

The Rs haven't won the PVI since 2016 and McCain was Senator
 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Since, Kelly said she won't pack Crts due to Federalize LGBT rights, at SCOTUS D's like Hassan and Ryan and Kelly should be better off for getting Elected

If D's packed the Crts LGBT rights would get to nationalize it, that's why Hillary and Kerry lost, they would of picked a 5th and deciding vote, of Crts packed the Crts it would be the 7th and deciding vote

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We haven't heard anything on the Gov race, not one poll, but it probably tilts R and the Senate race Leans D, AZ and OH were the only two states to split their votes between SEN and Gov in 2018 and it can do the same again in 2022


I can see Kelly and Ryan winning and Rs winning AZ G and DeWine winning

Ducey and Gianforte were the two Govs that signed Legislation that blocks Fed gun control from their state

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We haven't heard anything on the Gov race, not one poll, but it probably tilts R and the Senate race Leans D, AZ and OH were the only two states to split their votes between SEN and Gov in 2018 and it can do the same again in 2022


I can see Kelly and Ryan winning and Rs winning AZ G and DeWine winning

Ducey and Gianforte were the two Govs that signed Legislation that blocks Fed gun control from their state

You are definitly a little hackish here in favour of the D's. 2022 will not be like 2018. A lot of the Independent Voters will not support the Democrats Socialist Agenda! Tim Ryan has no chance winning OH, absolutely ZERO!

Only a little? Anyone who thinks Tim Ryan will win is a beyond delusional troll who expects a national environment of D+12 or something.

It's not Delusional when PPP poll had Ryan kneck and kneck with all R challengers, PPP poll had Evers and Nelson winning too


PPP IS THE GOLDEN STANDARD OF POLLING EVENTHOUGH IT GOT NC SEN IN 2020 WRONG

I have donated to Ryan and when the maps come out, whenever they do I will make OH 60 percent Ryan and 60 percent DeWibe and 60 percent DeSantis Exaggerated of course

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We haven't heard anything on the Gov race, not one poll, but it probably tilts R and the Senate race Leans D, AZ and OH were the only two states to split their votes between SEN and Gov in 2018 and it can do the same again in 2022


I can see Kelly and Ryan winning and Rs winning AZ G and DeWine winning

Ducey and Gianforte were the two Govs that signed Legislation that blocks Fed gun control from their state

You are definitly a little hackish here in favour of the D's. 2022 will not be like 2018. A lot of the Independent Voters will not support the Democrats Socialist Agenda! Tim Ryan has no chance winning OH, absolutely ZERO!

Then put it on your Prediction map, I will put it ony prediction map, whenever they come out, I will make it 60 percent Ryan to make you mad too

That's why we have Prediction maps and 60 percent DeWibe

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Split voting is very popular between H and statewide offices


NC split it's votes with Gov and Senator, I don't see why it's so hard for users to believe that OH, Ryan/DeWine, GA WARNOCK/Kemp, NH Hassan/Ayotte, AZ Kelly/RG, KS Moran/Kelly and FL Rubio/Crist, that it can't happen between Gov and Senator

Look at IA we have 1 D Rep and R Gov and Sen, split voting can happen

Afro Americans make up 15 percent of OH and FL and NC, and like CRIST and Ryan, despises DeSsntis and Josh MANDEL, that's why DeSantis is getting crushed by Biden in a GE polls he almost lost to Gillium

Ryan isn't Cordray

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We haven't heard anything on the Gov race, not one poll, but it probably tilts R and the Senate race Leans D, AZ and OH were the only two states to split their votes between SEN and Gov in 2018 and it can do the same again in 2022


I can see Kelly and Ryan winning and Rs winning AZ G and DeWine winning

Ducey and Gianforte were the two Govs that signed Legislation that blocks Fed gun control from their state

You are definitly a little hackish here in favour of the D's. 2022 will not be like 2018. A lot of the Independent Voters will not support the Democrats Socialist Agenda! Tim Ryan has no chance winning OH, absolutely ZERO!

Only a little? Anyone who thinks Tim Ryan will win is a beyond delusional troll who expects a national environment of D+12 or something.

It's not Delusional when PPP poll had Ryan kneck and kneck with all R challengers, PPP poll had Evers and Nelson winning too

Ah yes, I remember the impeccable quality of polls one year before the election



Everyone remembers how this was the most hotly contested Senate race in 2016, and how the Democrats picked up the seat and how Democrats won its 18 electoral votes, which delivered them both the Senate and the White House, oh wait....

Those polls are from mid-to-late 2015

Olawakandi is citing polls from early 2021 to make his argument, so this is a fair comparison.

Olawakandi is too hackish. He seriously thinks that Democrats will get 2018 Midterm Level Turnout in 2022 when we that this total Nonsense and won't happen.

Looking at the Statement by Senator Kelly that Biden did not talk about the Border Crisis at all during his Speech sounds like someone is already very afraid running in a Biden Midterm. How does Kelly explain tue Biden Administrations big Spending Policies and Socialist Agenda to the Voters of AZ. I am curious how this will work?

I am not hackish, you really think you guys are gonna win IA, OH, NC and FL forever, they will never vote D ever again and we won the PVI only by 4 in 2008/2012, like I said I don't care what you say

I will make it 60 percent  Ryan to just make you mad when the maps come out CRIST, Sand and Ryan next yr to make you mad

D's lead on Generic ballot 47/42

It's not nonsense when PPP polls have Ryan and Nelson and Evers tied or leading, but DeWine will won

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly is the best candidate D's have next to Jackson and Ryan

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mark Kelly has this he will win by 5 pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.brnoforaz.com/

Brnovich in.

Time to change the thread title to something like "The Mark to Beat."

True. Both men are named Mark. Last year, in Montana, both candidates were named Steve. I'd be curious to know other political races in recent times where both candidates had the same first name.

In all seriousness, since the state legislature is moving to transfer election oversight to the AG office, it looks like Brnovich will be able to rig it in his favor a la Brian Kemp. I fully expect Kelly to lose.

You really think Kelly is losing, he is leading by the same amount against all Rs in the last poll in a Neutral Environment, D's win AZ, NH, PA, GA,WI, NV and PA

The Gov race is probably Lean R but Senate race Leans D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly isn't losing even if we lose NH

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Vance won't be Prez of US

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs aren't winning this race, because Gov race without Ducey is Lean D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Doug Ducey will go nowhere, first of, he wouldn't win a primary, but putting that aside, I'm not convinced he significantly improves the chances of Republicans here, Democrats and left-leaning independents are not fond of how he handled the coronavirus. He could win, but I'm not convinced he's that much better of a candidate or better at all, than say Brnovich.

The Rs exhausted their bench with Walker, Toomey, Johnson Portman and McCain, Toomey should have lost to Sestak, in with 2010/2016 and Kirk and Rauner maxed out the R bench in IL and Rauner got thhr Kirk Dillard vote, and Dillard was the Edgar candidate not Rauner that's why he lost badly in 2018

There aren't any Businessmen Josh Mandel is tied in the polls with Ryan at 38 and Fetterman is a Bob Casey Jr clone



"Candidate with the highest name recognition must be the most 'electable' candidate" is such lazy pundit/political operative logic. I feel like the GOP would be better served recruiting more businessmen in many of these races/states where their current bench is rather unimpressive (esp. OH, PA, AZ, NV).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race is Tossup not Tilt R