CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Newsom will prevail, but his political future is over at the same time. He will never be president. NEVER.

Even before COVID, he was never gonna be president. NEVER.

Why? He's too slick? I always saw him as someone who was positioning to be the new Bill Clinton/Tony Blair....slick, affable, and charming, but for some reasons it never aligned....

Newsom isn't charming and definitely doesn't have the kind of "I feel your pain" affability that Bill Clinton possessed.

Newsom seems slick to me in a way that isn’t a positive (unlike Clinton). I mean, I still support him and am voting against the primary, but he definitely seems like a politician’s politician.

At this point, I think that Newsom will win by a seemingly disappointing margin, but far better than the worry-wort columns I’ve been seeing the titles of in my news feeds (so like 55-56 to 44-45). No clue about the replacement part, not that it will be necessary.

[Minnesota Mike]

Newsom will prevail, but his political future is over at the same time. He will never be president. NEVER.

Even before COVID, he was never gonna be president. NEVER.

Funny that never being President somehow equals having no political future. For the next 5 1/2 years he is going to be governor of California, after that who knows maybe a cabinet position/ Senator or maybe just being an influential private citizen. Sounds like  a political future to me.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Newsom will prevail, but his political future is over at the same time. He will never be president. NEVER.

Even before COVID, he was never gonna be president. NEVER.

Funny that never being President somehow equals having no political future. For the next 5 1/2 years he is going to be governor of California, after that who knows maybe a cabinet position/ Senator or maybe just being an influential private citizen. Sounds like  a political future to me.

I certainly agree with you.

If Suburbia thinks Newsom has no political future in his first term as governor, I can't imagine how much incessant gloating he'd be doing about Jerry Brown after his 1992 presidential run went bust.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

The NorCal/SoCal divide is really about Northern California Democrats being better organized to get support for running statewide. The Democratic base in the past was mostly northern and that still is somewhat true when it comes to who can build up support to run statewide. I've never heard anyone complain about SoCal not having enough clout over NorCal.

I have my qualms about a lack of SoCal representation in Sacramento/DC in recent years, but honestly I relate more with NorCal/Bay Area politics than SoCal.

Not only are SoCal Dems lacking in the organizational side, there's just so many ideological splintering down here. Not just regionally but also at the local/municipal level. Down here, it's like a patchwork of varying levels of liberal/leftist politics.

[Girlytree]

Uh what’s this?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Newsom will prevail, but his political future is over at the same time. He will never be president. NEVER.

Even before COVID, he was never gonna be president. NEVER.

Why? He's too slick? I always saw him as someone who was positioning to be the new Bill Clinton/Tony Blair....slick, affable, and charming, but for some reasons it never aligned....

I always liked Newsom and never really understood the dislike for him, though I'd assume he'd lack a national base of support and that he has some brand as an elitist. What he should do or should already have done is setting more signature legislative coals to tackle problems like homelessness. Seems like he should do more of that and build up a brand to become a viable national candidate.

Newsom was likely always eying running for the presidency down the line, and Democratic insiders likely always viewed him as a rising star, but you can forget about that now! Whether you like, hate, or simply tolerate him; it's pretty obvious his tenure as Governor has been disappointing, and especially with the recall, ruined any prospects he might have had.

[Хahar 🤔]

Newsom will prevail, but his political future is over at the same time. He will never be president. NEVER.

Even before COVID, he was never gonna be president. NEVER.

Why? He's too slick? I always saw him as someone who was positioning to be the new Bill Clinton/Tony Blair....slick, affable, and charming, but for some reasons it never aligned....

I always liked Newsom and never really understood the dislike for him, though I'd assume he'd lack a national base of support and that he has some brand as an elitist. What he should do or should already have done is setting more signature legislative coals to tackle problems like homelessness. Seems like he should do more of that and build up a brand to become a viable national candidate.

Newsom was likely always eying running for the presidency down the line, and Democratic insiders likely always viewed him as a rising star, but you can forget about that now! Whether you like, hate, or simply tolerate him; it's pretty obvious his tenure as Governor has been disappointing, and especially with the recall, ruined any prospects he might have had.

I don't think that there's ever been any chance of his being president (the most similar politician I can think of is Andrew Cuomo), but the idea that a frivolous recall that he could well win by a huge margin suggests that his time in office has been some kind of failure is ridiculous.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Newsom will prevail, but his political future is over at the same time. He will never be president. NEVER.

Even before COVID, he was never gonna be president. NEVER.

Why? He's too slick? I always saw him as someone who was positioning to be the new Bill Clinton/Tony Blair....slick, affable, and charming, but for some reasons it never aligned....

I always liked Newsom and never really understood the dislike for him, though I'd assume he'd lack a national base of support and that he has some brand as an elitist. What he should do or should already have done is setting more signature legislative coals to tackle problems like homelessness. Seems like he should do more of that and build up a brand to become a viable national candidate.

Newsom was likely always eying running for the presidency down the line, and Democratic insiders likely always viewed him as a rising star, but you can forget about that now! Whether you like, hate, or simply tolerate him; it's pretty obvious his tenure as Governor has been disappointing, and especially with the recall, ruined any prospects he might have had.

I don't think that there's ever been any chance of his being president (the most similar politician I can think of is Andrew Cuomo), but the idea that a frivolous recall that he could well win by a huge margin suggests that his time in office has been some kind of failure is ridiculous.

But why is the recall going to fail? It's because Democrats don't want a Republican in his position, not so much because he is popular and well-liked. That mere apathetic tolerance is why the recall ever even looked like it would succeed.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

HEELED LIKE A DOG

https://twitter.com/jeanguerre/status/1430966462303272960

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

HEELED LIKE A DOG

https://twitter.com/jeanguerre/status/1430966462303272960

THATS WHAT WE LIKE

[DrScholl]

I just saw an Elder ad where he said "Do I look like a white supremacist?". Seems worse than "I am not a witch."

[NewYorkExpress]

I just an Elder ad where he said "Do I look like a white supremacist?". Seems worse than "I am not a witch."

It's pretty bad, but I think Christine O'Donnell having to deny that she's a witch is just more ridiculous in my opinion.

Found the ad.

It's insulting, but I don't think it's on the same level as Christine O'Donnell having to deny she's a witch. That was just absurd.

[Badger]

I just an Elder ad where he said "Do I look like a white supremacist?". Seems worse than "I am not a witch."

It's pretty bad, but I think Christine O'Donnell having to deny that she's a witch is just more ridiculous in my opinion.

Found the ad.

It's insulting, but I don't think it's on the same level as Christine O'Donnell having to deny she's a witch. That was just absurd.

I wonder if do some could improve his position by turning this as much into a race versus he and Larry Elder as much as he is running against the national Republican Party. I mean, Elder is way way out there, and the only way he's going to get elected governor is I waiting a 20-ish percent morality of the leftovers if Newsom gets only 49.99% of the vote in the recall portion. I mean, he is really out there, and the fast overwhelming percentage of Californians do. One milder as their governor.

[wbrocks67]

Absentee ballot retutun update.


https://www.politicaldata.com/2020-ballot-returns-top-25-searches/

Total ballots returned = 1,556,736*
Dems 884,638 (56.8%)
Reps 332,097 (21.3%)
Ind/Other 340,378 (21.9%)

* total does not quite equal Dems+ Rep + other. Off by 377 voters.

Update

Total ballots returned = 2,219,666
Dems 1,223,642 (55.1%)
Reps 507,265 (22.9%)
Ind/Other 488,759 (22.0%)

Turnout: Dems (12%), Reps (10%), Ind/Other (7%)

https://twitter.com/Jim_Oberst/status/1430763897401708552/photo/1

Total ballots returned = 2,380,359
Dems 1,310,154 (55.1%)
Reps 546,152 (22.9%)
Ind/Other 524,516 (22.0%)

Turnout: Dems (13%), Reps (10%), Ind/Other (7%)

[wbrocks67]

Newer update:

Total ballots returned = 2,841,048
Dems 1,560,504 (54.9%)
Reps 654,891 (23.0%)
Ind/Other 626,179 (22.1%)

Turnout: Dems (15%), Reps (12%), Ind/Other (10%)

For comparison sake, on the eve of the Election 2020, it was Dems (50.9%) Ind/Other (24.6%) Reps (24.4%)

[Holmes]

Well, so far Republicans are a little bit more motivated to get rid of Newsom than they were to keep Trump.

[LabourJersey]

Newsom will prevail, but his political future is over at the same time. He will never be president. NEVER.

Even before COVID, he was never gonna be president. NEVER.

Funny that never being President somehow equals having no political future. For the next 5 1/2 years he is going to be governor of California, after that who knows maybe a cabinet position/ Senator or maybe just being an influential private citizen. Sounds like  a political future to me.

I doubt he'll ever be Senator given how deep the California Democratic bench is, but I do mostly agree with you.

I think it's possible that if it's a very close race Newsom may be forced to bow out of a second term, but that's unlikely. So he will still be around until January 2027 unless a scandal forces his resignation, so he certainly will remain relevant (for better or for worse)

[DrScholl]

I just an Elder ad where he said "Do I look like a white supremacist?". Seems worse than "I am not a witch."

It's pretty bad, but I think Christine O'Donnell having to deny that she's a witch is just more ridiculous in my opinion.

Found the ad.

It's insulting, but I don't think it's on the same level as Christine O'Donnell having to deny she's a witch. That was just absurd.

O'Donnell was more absurd, but my point really is about giving oxygen to attacks the opposition makes against you that many voters might not hear otherwise. To most voters this ad will just appear bizarre and out of nowhere because most won't know why he felt the need to say this.

[Хahar 🤔]

How many ads for candidates in the recall are people seeing? Granted, I imagine that Republican candidates might not find it cost-efficient to spend in the Bay Area media market, but literally every television ad I've seen has been against the recall.

[Girlytree]

I’m not sure if anyone has talked about this yet but Democratic NY assemblyman Dov Hikind has endorsed Elder.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/310031

He voted for the Republican nominee for President in at least 1980, 1984, 1988, 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2020, and in 2016 he cast a write in vote so this isn’t surprising.

Sidenote: Elder himself voted for Carter in 1976 and for Harry Browne in 2000.

[Flyersfan232]

If that landlord you tuber ends up winning the and the recall got hoigh what his future?

[Flyersfan232]

Newsom will prevail, but his political future is over at the same time. He will never be president. NEVER.

Even before COVID, he was never gonna be president. NEVER.

Have u seen Harris approval rating? If I am new some I would bring this up with the Bay Area machine alot

[Holmes]

How many ads for candidates in the recall are people seeing? Granted, I imagine that Republican candidates might not find it cost-efficient to spend in the Bay Area media market, but literally every television ad I've seen has been against the recall.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a for the recall ad, except for some online ads for Elder. But all ads on YouTube or the radio have been against. I have seen some random recall Newsom signs on freeway overpasses though.

[DrScholl]

How many ads for candidates in the recall are people seeing? Granted, I imagine that Republican candidates might not find it cost-efficient to spend in the Bay Area media market, but literally every television ad I've seen has been against the recall.

I've seen ads for Cox and Faulconer in addition to the ones for Elder. Southern California is definitely where Republicans are spending most of their ad money.

[wbrocks67]

Newer update:

Total ballots returned = 2,841,048
Dems 1,560,504 (54.9%)
Reps 654,891 (23.0%)
Ind/Other 626,179 (22.1%)

Turnout: Dems (15%), Reps (12%), Ind/Other (10%)

For comparison sake, on the eve of the Election 2020, it was Dems (50.9%) Ind/Other (24.6%) Reps (24.4%)

Ballots returned = 3,464,086
Dems 1,876,897 (54.2%)
Reps 825,972 (23.8%)
Ind/Other 761,852 (22.0%)

Turnout = Dems (18%), Reps (15%), Ind/Other (12%)