CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[NewYorkExpress]

It's not impossible for a Republican to win in California in a Biden midterm, if they have the cash to compete, and the name recognition. Basically, they'd have to be a Republican Hollywood Celebrity to have any realistic chance at winning, and even then they'd start out as an underdog, unless Newsom chose not to run to focus on 2024 Presidential bid, or chose to run for the Senate (remember Kamala's seat will likely have an appointed incumbent in 2022. Don't rule out Newsom appointing a placeholder and then running for the seat, should Kamala be elected VP.)

[NewYorkExpress]

It's not impossible for a Republican to win in California in a Biden midterm, if they have the cash to compete, and the name recognition. Basically, they'd have to be a Republican Hollywood Celebrity to have any realistic chance at winning, and even then they'd start out as an underdog, unless Newsom chose not to run to focus on 2024 Presidential bid, or chose to run for the Senate (remember Kamala's seat will likely have an appointed incumbent in 2022. Don't rule out Newsom appointing a placeholder and then running for the seat, should Kamala be elected VP.)

You mean, like Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman, who lost by double digits in a R wave election when the state was at least 10 points less Republican than it is today?

Fiorina was kneecapped by a scandal in the final months of the race, and spent months running to the right and embracing the Tea Party, as did Whitman. If both had run towards the middle we'd be looking at Governor Fiorina and Senator Whitman (especially Fiorina).

[NewYorkExpress]

Ric Grennell to meet with Trump, discuss bid for Governor.

Former acting national intelligence director Ric Grenell is slated to have dinner with former President Donald Trump Saturday evening to discuss his potential run for California governor, among other issues, according to three people familiar with the plans.

The sit-down, which is set to take place at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate, comes as Grenell moves closer to launching a campaign in the possible upcoming recall election of Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom. Grenell strongly hinted during a speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference Saturday morning that he was leaning toward a bid, saying that he has “never seen a better case for a recall” than the effort to recall Newsom.


“And of course, if a public official is still failing to deliver on their promises, and if you can’t limit their term or recall them in time, there's always one other option: You can run against them yourself,” Grenell said at the tail end of his speech.


Neither Grenell nor a Trump spokesman responded to requests for comment.

Trump has yet to publicly weigh in on the recall effort, though many of his staunchest backers have made clear they support Newsom’s removal. Former Trump aide Mercedes Schlapp, the wife of CPAC head Matt Schlapp, remarked onstage Saturday morning that Grenell would “make a great governor of California.”

The 54-year-old Grenell, a Palm Springs, Calif., resident, is close to the former president and is frequently in touch with him. In addition to spending several months as Trump’s acting director of national intelligence, Grenell was also ambassador to Germany in the Trump administration. Grenell campaigned aggressively for Trump’s reelection in 2020 and pushed Trump’s unsubstantiated claims of fraud after the vote.

Should he run, Grenell would likely be supported by a substantial fundraising operation. He was a major draw at Trump fundraisers during the 2020 campaign, and many of the former president’s biggest contributors have called on him to enter the contest. But while Grenell’s relationship with Trump is likely to help him with Republican voters, it could be a complicating factor. The former president got just 34 percent of the vote in California in 2020, and Democrats have signaled they’re eager to focus a recall campaign on Trump instead of questions about how Newsom has handled the coronavirus pandemic.

[NewYorkExpress]

Ose probably is one of the stronger Republicans who could run.

Assuming he's top Republican, the recall is Lean D.

[NewYorkExpress]

Ose probably is one of the stronger Republicans who could run.

Assuming he's top Republican, the recall is Lean D.

Are you doing this on purpose or something?

I see this recall as similar to the Senate race in 2010. The incumbent is favored, but it wouldn't take much to knock him out.

With Grenell (the only other significant Republican who has declared interest so far), I'd have it as Safe D. California isn't going to vote for a Trump appointee.

[NewYorkExpress]

Ose probably is one of the stronger Republicans who could run.

Assuming he's top Republican, the recall is Lean D.

Are you doing this on purpose or something?

I see this recall as similar to the Senate race in 2010. The incumbent is favored, but it wouldn't take much to knock him out.

With Grenell (the only other significant Republican who has declared interest so far), I'd have it as Safe D. California isn't going to vote for a Trump appointee.

Why are you differentiating between the potential effects of their candidacies on the race as if there's a pre-recall primary or something? There's no top-2 system for the recall that could result in races like Democrat vs. Ose or Democrat vs. Grenell, they're both gonna be on the recall ballot alongside every single candidate not named Gavin Newsom & in the event that the latter is recalled, the candidate with a plurality wins.

It's an invisible primary. Republicans are (mostly) going to gravitate to one candidate, if they want the best chance at not electing another Democrat to replace Newsom.

[NewYorkExpress]

Larry Elder claims the ideal minimum wage is....nothing.

California workers currently earn a minimum of $13 or $14 an hour, but Larry Elder says he’d get rid of a legal baseline altogether.

“For somebody who’s never run a business to tell business people... ‘I’m going to jack up your price of labor, and you’re going to deal with it,’ to me, it’s offensive,” said Elder, a longtime conservative talk radio host and leading candidate to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom in the recall election this fall.

“The ideal minimum wage is $0.00,” he added.

[NewYorkExpress]

A Federal lawsuit is arguing that California's recall provisions are unconstitutional.

Two California voters are challenging the legality of the state’s recall system less than a month before the Sept. 14 election, echoing concerns from constitutional scholars as Gov. Gavin Newsom fights for his political life.

A complaint filed in U.S. District Court for the Central District of California argues that the state's recall provision violates the equal protection clause of the U.S. Constitution by allowing sitting governors to be replaced by candidates who have received fewer votes. The plaintiffs, Rex Julian Beaber and A.W. Clark, want a court order either prohibiting the recall election or adding Newsom's name to the replacement candidate list. Elections officials have already sent millions of ballots ahead of a state deadline today.


Gubernatorial recalls in California involve a two-part ballot. Voters are asked whether to recall the sitting governor, then who should replace the governor. If a majority of voters oust Newsom, whichever candidate receives the most votes on the second question would replace him.

That allows a replacement candidate to be elected with a small plurality — and potentially with far fewer votes than the number of votes cast to keep the current governor. While polls show Newsom in a tight race to stay in office, the leading Republican contender to replace Newsom has consistently registered support from a quarter or less of the electorate.

[NewYorkExpress]

John Cox was served a subpeona over unpaid bills from his 2018 campaign at the debate.

A process server interrupted California's gubernatorial debate Tuesday night, throwing papers at a GOP candidate who's been ordered to pay nearly $100,000 to a consultant for work from 2018.

The odd scene unfolded at the Guild Theater in Sacramento as Republicans faced off in the race to unseat Gov. Gavin Newsom in next month's recall election.


As the debate began and San Diego businessman John Cox was introducing himself, private investigator Aman Choudhry walked to the stage, tossed papers at the candidate's feet and shouted: "John Cox, you've been served; San Diego Superior Court order by the judge."

A San Diego judge has ordered Cox to pay $97,587.43 to Sandler-Innocenzi, an Alexandria, Virginia, company that makes political ads.

The judgement stems from an original $55,000 bill that Cox's campaign didn't pay Sandler-Innocenzi for television spots it produced for his 2018 gubernatorial run, founding partner Jim Innocenzi told NBC News on Wednesday.

https://twitter.com/MelodyGutierrez/status/1427798884516909058

[NewYorkExpress]

I just an Elder ad where he said "Do I look like a white supremacist?". Seems worse than "I am not a witch."

It's pretty bad, but I think Christine O'Donnell having to deny that she's a witch is just more ridiculous in my opinion.

Found the ad.

It's insulting, but I don't think it's on the same level as Christine O'Donnell having to deny she's a witch. That was just absurd.