Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Winnie has made it clear that he doesn't view the economy (as in, rising living standards) as his priority. But, that doesn't mean that he's eager to turn China into West Korea right now, because even he's aware that's not doable in the short term. His administration still needs to at least pay lip service to welcoming private investment, because China's domestic consumption and export sectors are currently in serious trouble, which has immediate consequences for weiwen ("preserving stability").

The sudden loss of eight digits of export sector jobs would be beyond the ability of even the CCP's mobilization abilities to manage. Conscripting more than a fraction of them into the army would be useless in any hypothetical war against Taiwan, unless the plan is to use their bodies as land fill. Mobilizing them into military industries would immediately put the Western powers on alert.

Then there are the tech sanctions. China's semiconductor sector is already a decade behind global standards, and that's after spending hundreds of billions trying to bridge the gap. Tighter sanctions still will widen that gap further, and sanctions in other advanced technologies would achieve similar results.

Putting these two together, China would be grappling with mass unemployment (though over time, this could still be alleviated by replacing capital with labour) and an increasingly disappointed Party elite, with a numerically massive army that is technologically inferior to its adversaries.

So Winnie is stuck in a quandary where he wants to prioritize his regime's stability over the economy, but the economy is - in the long term - what gives his regime its stability.

And what does all this have to do with Russia? Well, if Putin's regime becomes increasingly dependent on support from Beijing, then a stagnating Chinese economy will find it increasingly difficult to support Putin even when doing so becomes more and more important for its own regime stability. That's exactly what doomed the Soviet Union into stagnation, which paved the way for its collapse.

Piglet has been talking for twenty years about preserving stability, "well-fed decade" and "but we have peace." And washed away his entire agenda one February morning. When dealing with extremist leaders, pay attention to their deeds and ignore their words.

[Hindsight was 2020]

The upcoming Ukrainian offensive will see it's best troops and newly arrived NATO armaments go forward.

At this point I see two options left for Ukraine, both long shots:

1. Svatove
2. Melitopol

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1643669773207707649

40k troops is way small, unless the russians have a defence force of similar size, which is possible given how small the russian army currently is.

I would expect at least 100k to be on the safe side.

Tbf this report could be a psyop to lure Russia into either false security or to think that with only 40k they’ll attack a specific area that Russia beefs up only to attack elsewhere.

[Storr]

When you've become too used to having an audience of obsequious government officials forced to and rabid vatnik nationalists eager to attend your speeches.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1643702297992519683?s=20

[The Mikado]

The upcoming Ukrainian offensive will see it's best troops and newly arrived NATO armaments go forward.

At this point I see two options left for Ukraine, both long shots:

1. Svatove
2. Melitopol

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1643669773207707649

40k troops is way small, unless the russians have a defence force of similar size, which is possible given how small the russian army currently is.

I would expect at least 100k to be on the safe side.

Tbf this report could be a psyllium to lure Russia into either false security or to think that with only 40k they’ll attack a specific area that Russia beefs up only to attack elsewhere.

Or, more specifically, that the 40k are the Western-trained etc troops that are the spearhead vanguard for the operation.

[Storr]

Missed this from when it first was publicized but:

https://twitter.com/KilledInUkraine/status/1640666400610983938?s=20

[Pericles]

Missed this from when it first was publicized but:

https://twitter.com/KilledInUkraine/status/1640666400610983938?s=20

May they, and many more to come, burn in hell.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1643992753565736964

[BG-NY]

Can we admit Ukraine into the EU and NATO already?

While I oppose foreign aid, I would like a weakened Russia and China, and I think allowing Ukraine to be absorbed into both is the best, most cost-effective way of dealing with this.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Can we admit Ukraine into the EU and NATO already?

Not possible at this moment, for the most obvious of obvious reasons. You realize that, yes?

[Storr]

A very unusual exchange on Russian television, containing criticism of Putin:

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1644038823368613889?s=20

https://twitter.com/Prune602/status/1644045573740195850?s=20

[Storr]

Meanwhile in the northern Caucasus: https://twitter.com/ruslantrad/status/1643945159548190722?s=20

https://twitter.com/ruslantrad/status/1643739305955966976?s=20

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1643846439250829313?s=20

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1643999425784688640?s=20

[Storr]

The campaign against the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate) continues in Ukraine. I suppose it makes sense why this isn't gaining much mainstream attention in the west, as the portions of right (specifically in the US) have tried to weaponize the issue and called previous Ukrainian actions against the church "religious discrimination". So, it's easier to not focus a touchy and sensitive issue which pits religious freedom vs. national sovereignty/security.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1643968539022303233?s=20

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1644020438857555980?s=20

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1643962218378035203?s=20

[John Dule]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/06/us/politics/ukraine-war-plan-russia.html

Not good news.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/06/us/politics/ukraine-war-plan-russia.html

Not good news.

Thankfully nothing vital was leaked but still sucks 😕

[Storr]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/06/us/politics/ukraine-war-plan-russia.html

Not good news.

The only good news is that the documents are 5 weeks old, from March 1. This article claims experts have said the documents appear to be real except for where they "have been modified in certain parts [...]; overstating American estimates of Ukrainian war dead and understating estimates of Russian troops killed".

They do provide some interesting clues:

"Another document includes columns that list Ukrainian troop units, equipment and training, with schedules for January through April. The document contains a summary of 12 combat brigades that are being assembled, with nine of them apparently being trained and supplied by the United States and other NATO allies. Of those nine brigades, the documents said that six would be ready by March 31 and the rest by April 30. A Ukrainian brigade has about 4,000 to 5,000 soldiers, analysts said.

The document said that equipment delivery times would impact training and readiness in order to meet the timeline. Total equipment needed for nine brigades, the document said, was more than 250 tanks and more than 350 mechanized vehicles."

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/c37ed22d-e0e4-4b03-972e-c56af8a36d2e

"US opposes offering Ukraine a road map to Nato membership"

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1644085904427089920
https://mobile.twitter.com/GeopoliticalGu1/status/1644101157743374337

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.com/revised-world-bank-forecast-slashes-181200063.html

"Revised World Bank forecast slashes Ukraine’s economic growth expectations"

World Bank projection of Russia 2023 GDP growth goes from -2.3% in Jan to +1.2% 
World Bank projection Ukraine 2023 GDP growth goes from +3.3% in Jan to -1.0% (-3% to 1%).  This is on top of a 2022 Ukraine GDP change of -33%

Pretty big shift in fortunes of both but in opposition directions.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1644089200390848512?s=20

[Storr]

https://www.ft.com/content/c37ed22d-e0e4-4b03-972e-c56af8a36d2e

"US opposes offering Ukraine a road map to Nato membership"

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1644005765705785346?s=20

[pppolitics]

https://www.ft.com/content/c37ed22d-e0e4-4b03-972e-c56af8a36d2e

"US opposes offering Ukraine a road map to Nato membership"

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1644005765705785346?s=20

It's not a one-way relationship.

Look at what Ukraine has to offer to NATO: hundreds of thousands of experienced troops who are already familiar with NATO equipment.

Those don't just come out of nowhere.

[NOVA Green]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/06/us/politics/ukraine-war-plan-russia.html

Not good news.

The only good news is that the documents are 5 weeks old, from March 1. This article claims experts have said the documents appear to be real except for where they "have been modified in certain parts [...]; overstating American estimates of Ukrainian war dead and understating estimates of Russian troops killed".

They do provide some interesting clues:

"Another document includes columns that list Ukrainian troop units, equipment and training, with schedules for January through April. The document contains a summary of 12 combat brigades that are being assembled, with nine of them apparently being trained and supplied by the United States and other NATO allies. Of those nine brigades, the documents said that six would be ready by March 31 and the rest by April 30. A Ukrainian brigade has about 4,000 to 5,000 soldiers, analysts said.

The document said that equipment delivery times would impact training and readiness in order to meet the timeline. Total equipment needed for nine brigades, the document said, was more than 250 tanks and more than 350 mechanized vehicles."

That jives with some previous numbers we have seen and which I've posted a few stories on here or there (Bolded sections).

I wonder if part of the delay for the other (3) Brigades is the delay of Spanish Leopard 2 tanks also announced today?

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://www.ft.com/content/c37ed22d-e0e4-4b03-972e-c56af8a36d2e

"US opposes offering Ukraine a road map to Nato membership"

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1644005765705785346?s=20

It's not a one-way relationship.

Look at what Ukraine has to offer to NATO: hundreds of thousands of experienced troops who are already familiar with NATO equipment.

Those don't just come out of nowhere.

And most importantly Ukrainians have studied the tactics of Russian troops from A to Z.

[NOVA Green]

Looks like some of this info being leaked regarding Ukrainian war plans is already raising flags...

Classified war documents detailing secret American and NATO plans for building up the Ukrainian military ahead of a planned offensive against Russia were posted this week on social media channels, senior Biden administration officials said.

The Pentagon is investigating who may have been behind the leak of the documents, which appeared on Twitter and on Telegram, a platform with more than half a billion users that is widely available in Russia.

Military analysts said the documents appear to have been modified in certain parts from their original format, overstating American estimates of Ukrainian war dead and understating estimates of Russian troops killed.

The modifications could point to an effort of disinformation by Moscow, the analysts said. But the disclosures in the original documents, which appear as photographs of charts of anticipated weapons deliveries, troop and battalion strengths, and other plans, represents a significant breach of American intelligence in the effort to aid Ukraine.

Biden officials were working to get them deleted but had not, as of Thursday evening, succeeded.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/06/us/politics/ukraine-war-plan-russia.html

[Virginiá]

Context for US position on a path to NATO for Ukraine

The US is instead urging allies to stay focused on short-term military, financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, in order to help it resist and eventually repel Russia’s invasion. Practical support such as ammunition deliveries should be the main priority for Vilnius, US officials said, with discussions over a potential postwar political relationship only distracting from that goal.

Washington is concerned that deepening ties during the war could fuel Putin’s narrative of a battle between Russia and Nato itself and that Moscow may escalate the conflict, including by potentially deploying nuclear arms.

This does make sense as an argument, but on the other hand, it seems likely to me that Putin already believes Ukraine is essentially going to be on the road to NATO membership if Russia fails to achieve its objectives and has to end the war. The only hangup might be whether or not Ukrainian leadership can formally cede any occupied territory they were unable to liberate (as in, agree to and sell that to the people in some way). I imagine the prospect of ongoing territorial disputes and the possibility that it might reignite the conflict in the future might weigh on NATO members when the time comes to decide.

Whether or not Putin believes this is a foregone conclusion doesn't matter to NATO though, who are almost surely going to err on the side of caution, given the stakes.