Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Antonio the Sixth]

A war between NATO and Russia would definitionally be a world war, yes.

What would make a war with no participants in South America, Africa and the parts of Asia where more than half the world's population live a World War?? It would involve countries with less than 20% of the world's population and all located on the northern third of the globe (apart from Hawaii and a few tiny overseas territories).

I mean, it would have belligerents spanning multiple continents (and almost the entire extent of the Northern hemisphere).

[Lord Halifax]

A war between NATO and Russia would definitionally be a world war, yes.

What would make a war with no participants in South America, Africa and the parts of Asia where more than half the world's population live a World War?? It would involve countries with less than 20% of the world's population and all located on the northern third of the globe (apart from Hawaii and a few tiny overseas territories).

I mean, it would have belligerents spanning multiple continents (and almost the entire extent of the Northern hemisphere).

The Northern Hemisphere does not equal the world and all the combat is likely to take place within one continent (and not even one of the four major continents). Russia would be the only country with territory in Asia, the most important continent with more than 60% of the world's population, and the Asian part of Russia has a very small population.

I'm not sure Europeans really get how provocative the Europe = the World claim is (and Europe + Siberia = the World isn't much better), it's a reminder of a time when European powers had global empires and dominated the rest of the world and considered themselves the only "civilized" part of the world and the only part that really mattered. There are other and better ways to say that a war between Russia and NATO would be "a ing big deal" than the trite WW3.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1643524273032527873

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

A war between NATO and Russia would definitionally be a world war, yes.

What would make a war with no participants in South America, Africa and the parts of Asia where more than half the world's population live a World War?? It would involve countries with less than 20% of the world's population and all located on the northern third of the globe (apart from Hawaii and a few tiny overseas territories).

I mean, it would have belligerents spanning multiple continents (and almost the entire extent of the Northern hemisphere).

The Northern Hemisphere does not equal the world and all the combat is likely to take place within one continent (and not even one of the four major continents). Russia would be the only country with territory in Asia, the most important continent with more than 60% of the world's population, and the Asian part of Russia has a very small population.

I'm not sure Europeans really get how provocative the Europe = the World claim is (and Europe + Siberia = the World isn't much better), it's a reminder of a time when European powers had global empires and dominated the rest of the world and considered themselves the only "civilized" part of the world and the only part that really mattered. There are other and better ways to say that a war between Russia and NATO would be "a ing big deal" than the trite WW3.

I'd hesitate to call it a world war unless the nukes flew, but Turkey is also partly in Asia and between them, the participants' overseas territories actually have millions of people in different continents.

[Antonio the Sixth]

A war between NATO and Russia would definitionally be a world war, yes.

What would make a war with no participants in South America, Africa and the parts of Asia where more than half the world's population live a World War?? It would involve countries with less than 20% of the world's population and all located on the northern third of the globe (apart from Hawaii and a few tiny overseas territories).

I mean, it would have belligerents spanning multiple continents (and almost the entire extent of the Northern hemisphere).

The Northern Hemisphere does not equal the world and all the combat is likely to take place within one continent (and not even one of the four major continents). Russia would be the only country with territory in Asia, the most important continent with more than 60% of the world's population, and the Asian part of Russia has a very small population.

I'm not sure Europeans really get how provocative the Europe = the World claim is (and Europe + Siberia = the World isn't much better), it's a reminder of a time when European powers had global empires and dominated the rest of the world and considered themselves the only "civilized" part of the world and the only part that really mattered. There are other and better ways to say that a war between Russia and NATO would be "a ing big deal" than the trite WW3.

That's all fair and good, but you could make the exact same argument about WW1, which saw all its strategically relevant combat in Europe. So unless you want to claim the world war that defined the concept of a world war was not actually a world war, then a NATO-Russia war would necessarily also qualify by the same token. It might be Eurocentric, sure, but only in the sense that Europe has had a tendency to drag the rest of the world into its conflicts, which I certainly don't take as a point of pride!

[Woody]

A light aircraft ('Aeroprakt' A-22) was shot down by Russian border guards using small arms. The Ukrainian pilot had to crash land, and was apprehended by the guards/FSB. This happened in the Bryansk Region today.

Very risky flying that scrap over Russian borders.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1643662413437206545

[Mopsus]

The really enlightened position is that the Great War wasn’t a world war. The real World War I was the Seven Years’ War.

[lfromnj]

The really enlightened position is that the Great War wasn’t a world war. The real World War I was the Seven Years’ War.

War of the Spanish succession imo

[Cassius]

The really enlightened position is that the Great War wasn’t a world war. The real World War I was the Seven Years’ War.

The correct position is that the Trojan War was the real First World War (there was even an Ethiopian contingent in the mix).

[Stranger in a strange land]

The really enlightened position is that the Great War wasn’t a world war. The real World War I was the Seven Years’ War.

War of the Spanish succession imo

You know, I've always wondered why wars like The Wars of Spanish Succession, the Seven Years War, and the Napoleonic Wars aren't considered "World Wars" since they involved all the major powers of the international system and had fighting on multiple continents. By that standard, we would be on like World War IX by now.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/AlexGabuev/status/1643609126981730304?s=20

[Woody]

The upcoming Ukrainian offensive will see it's best troops and newly arrived NATO armaments go forward.

At this point I see two options left for Ukraine, both long shots:

1. Svatove
2. Melitopol

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1643669773207707649

[Storr]

The upcoming Ukrainian offensive will see it's best troops and newly arrived NATO armaments go forward.

At this point I see two options left for Ukraine, both long shots:

1. Svatove
2. Melitopol

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1643669773207707649

My guess is Melitopol. There's much more of a strategic advantage in reaching the Sea of Azov and splitting Russian-held Ukrainian territory in two. The Crimean land bridge would be cut since the southernmost east-west road and railway go through Melitopol. Reaching Svatove doesn't really change the situation from an overall strategic perspective.

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1643215115158802432?s=20

[Antonio the Sixth]

The really enlightened position is that the Great War wasn’t a world war. The real World War I was the Seven Years’ War.

War of the Spanish succession imo

You know, I've always wondered why wars like The Wars of Spanish Succession, the Seven Years War, and the Napoleonic Wars aren't considered "World Wars" since they involved all the major powers of the international system and had fighting on multiple continents. By that standard, we would be on like World War IX by now.

Yeah, that's my view honestly.

[GeneralMacArthur]

https://www.ft.com/content/d68b4007-4ddf-4320-b29a-f2eee2662d6e


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   https://www.ft.com/content/d68b4007-4ddf-4320-b29a-f2eee2662d6e

   Kyiv is willing to discuss the future of Crimea with Moscow if its forces reach the border of the Russian-occupied peninsula, a top adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has told the Financial Times.

The comments by Andriy Sybiha, deputy head of Zelenskyy’s office, are the most explicit statement of Ukraine’s interest in negotiations since it cut off peace talks with the Kremlin last April.

“If we will succeed in achieving our strategic goals on the battlefield and when we will be on the administrative border with Crimea, we are ready to open [a] diplomatic page to discuss this issue,” Sybiha said, referring to Kyiv’s long-planned counteroffensive.

First blink .

Doesn't sound like a blink?  Sounds like "we'll wait until we have our gun down Russia's throat, then we'll start negotiations."

[Hindsight was 2020]

When this war ends one issue I’m curious about is how Ukraine is going to approach holding Russia’s high command responsible for the war crimes committed. Hopefully the rumors of Putin’s bad health turn out to be true so nature takes care of him but Ukraine has ever legal right to demand that Prigozhin, Utkin, Shoigu, and Gerasimov not to mention lower level generals be handed over to be sent to the Hague for the atrocities that Russia’s military and Wagner have done but in a war were Moscow won’t get occupied I don’t see Russia accommodating any of them

[lfromnj]

When this war ends one issue I’m curious about is how Ukraine is going to approach holding Russia’s high command responsible for the war crimes committed. Hopefully the rumors of Putin’s bad health turn out to be true so nature takes care of him but Ukraine has ever legal right to demand that Prigozhin, Utkin, Shoigu, and Gerasimov not to mention lower level generals be handed over to be sent to the Hague for the atrocities that Russia’s military and Wagner have done but in a war were Moscow won’t get occupied I don’t see Russia accommodating any of them

Has Wagner actually been accused of any war crimes in Ukraine other than killing their own soldier with a sledgehammer? Assaulting an area where the Ukrainian army is concentrated is pretty fair in war.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

When this war ends one issue I’m curious about is how Ukraine is going to approach holding Russia’s high command responsible for the war crimes committed. Hopefully the rumors of Putin’s bad health turn out to be true so nature takes care of him but Ukraine has ever legal right to demand that Prigozhin, Utkin, Shoigu, and Gerasimov not to mention lower level generals be handed over to be sent to the Hague for the atrocities that Russia’s military and Wagner have done but in a war were Moscow won’t get occupied I don’t see Russia accommodating any of them

Has Wagner actually been accused of any war crimes in Ukraine other than killing their own soldier with a sledgehammer? Assaulting an area where the Ukrainian army is concentrated is pretty fair in war.

They've been accused of plenty and have outright claimed a decent number.* They published a video of themselves attacking a position while wearing Ukrainian uniforms, for instance.

*Some of their own war crime claims may have been exaggerated for edginess reasons. This is the organisation which brags that "1-2% of our men die during training" (which probably doesn't happen).

[lfromnj]

When this war ends one issue I’m curious about is how Ukraine is going to approach holding Russia’s high command responsible for the war crimes committed. Hopefully the rumors of Putin’s bad health turn out to be true so nature takes care of him but Ukraine has ever legal right to demand that Prigozhin, Utkin, Shoigu, and Gerasimov not to mention lower level generals be handed over to be sent to the Hague for the atrocities that Russia’s military and Wagner have done but in a war were Moscow won’t get occupied I don’t see Russia accommodating any of them

Has Wagner actually been accused of any war crimes in Ukraine other than killing their own soldier with a sledgehammer? Assaulting an area where the Ukrainian army is concentrated is pretty fair in war.

They've been accused of plenty and have outright claimed a decent number.* They published a video of themselves attacking a position while wearing Ukrainian uniforms, for instance.

*Some of their own war crime claims may have been exaggerated for edginess reasons. This is the organisation which brags that "1-2% of our men die during training" (which probably doesn't happen).

Oh yeah I forgot about the perfidy one. Overall though their civilian ones despite being composed of the dregs of Russian society is probably lower mostly due to lack of opportunity as they are made into assault troops.

[Hindsight was 2020]

When this war ends one issue I’m curious about is how Ukraine is going to approach holding Russia’s high command responsible for the war crimes committed. Hopefully the rumors of Putin’s bad health turn out to be true so nature takes care of him but Ukraine has ever legal right to demand that Prigozhin, Utkin, Shoigu, and Gerasimov not to mention lower level generals be handed over to be sent to the Hague for the atrocities that Russia’s military and Wagner have done but in a war were Moscow won’t get occupied I don’t see Russia accommodating any of them

Has Wagner actually been accused of any war crimes in Ukraine other than killing their own soldier with a sledgehammer? Assaulting an area where the Ukrainian army is concentrated is pretty fair in war.

They've been accused of plenty and have outright claimed a decent number.* They published a video of themselves attacking a position while wearing Ukrainian uniforms, for instance.

*Some of their own war crime claims may have been exaggerated for edginess reasons. This is the organisation which brags that "1-2% of our men die during training" (which probably doesn't happen).

On top of that Ukraine prosecutors accused Wagner of taking part in the Bucha Massacre and helping with torturing civilians during the Kherson occupation

[OSR stands with Israel]

The really enlightened position is that the Great War wasn’t a world war. The real World War I was the Seven Years’ War.

War of the Spanish succession imo

You know, I've always wondered why wars like The Wars of Spanish Succession, the Seven Years War, and the Napoleonic Wars aren't considered "World Wars" since they involved all the major powers of the international system and had fighting on multiple continents. By that standard, we would be on like World War IX by now.

WW1 is really only called WW1 cause of it’s connection to WW2 , otherwise it would just be called The  Great War .

[All Along The Watchtower]

The really enlightened position is that the Great War wasn’t a world war. The real World War I was the Seven Years’ War.

War of the Spanish succession imo

Not the Nine Years’ War just before?

[All Along The Watchtower]

The really enlightened position is that the Great War wasn’t a world war. The real World War I was the Seven Years’ War.

War of the Spanish succession imo

You know, I've always wondered why wars like The Wars of Spanish Succession, the Seven Years War, and the Napoleonic Wars aren't considered "World Wars" since they involved all the major powers of the international system and had fighting on multiple continents. By that standard, we would be on like World War IX by now.

WW1 is really only called WW1 cause of it’s connection to WW2 , otherwise it would just be called The  Great War .

You didn’t address the question.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The really enlightened position is that the Great War wasn’t a world war. The real World War I was the Seven Years’ War.

War of the Spanish succession imo

You know, I've always wondered why wars like The Wars of Spanish Succession, the Seven Years War, and the Napoleonic Wars aren't considered "World Wars" since they involved all the major powers of the international system and had fighting on multiple continents. By that standard, we would be on like World War IX by now.

WW1 is really only called WW1 cause of it’s connection to WW2 , otherwise it would just be called The  Great War .

You didn’t address the question.

The answer really is that WW2 is really the only truly global war in history of that scale but because of the fact that it’s causes are related to how WW1 Ended(and it’s immediate aftermath ) it got named as WW2 rather than The World War .

[oldtimer]

The upcoming Ukrainian offensive will see it's best troops and newly arrived NATO armaments go forward.

At this point I see two options left for Ukraine, both long shots:

1. Svatove
2. Melitopol

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1643669773207707649

40k troops is way small, unless the russians have a defence force of similar size, which is possible given how small the russian army currently is.

I would expect at least 100k to be on the safe side.