Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ouch. Even G7 nations don’t follow the standards they set themselves, how the hell they expect others to take them seriously? Germany “sanctioning” has also always been a joke.

Under BRICS leadership, economic matters will finally stop being used as a political matter. World needs a currency that’s stable and that countries don’t feel it can be turned against them out of nowhere by third parties backlash. Western nationalists can cry but the future is with globalization and you cannot reverse it whenever you feel it’s not convenient for you anymore.

There is certainly a virtue-signalling element to this. Though there is of course genuine desire to tackle Russian power and obviously a desire to do what is necessary, on some level.
It is also worth noting that Japan is a vassal state of the US and does not really have a wholesale independent foreign policy, but Washington gives them plenty of leeway to act when it is not against its interests. I don't know if that reality makes this news better or worse for the G7. But it does complicate the picture.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1642639081837408256
https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1642639774308605954
https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1642639776510537730
Russia is now making no progress on their fronts

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1642639081837408256

Slightly surprising that they didn't have shelters already. Ukraine has gone through what amounts to a Blitz. It seems that by now they've got the needed resources.

[Red Velvet]

Ouch. Even G7 nations don’t follow the standards they set themselves, how the hell they expect others to take them seriously? Germany “sanctioning” has also always been a joke.

Under BRICS leadership, economic matters will finally stop being used as a political matter. World needs a currency that’s stable and that countries don’t feel it can be turned against them out of nowhere by third parties backlash. Western nationalists can cry but the future is with globalization and you cannot reverse it whenever you feel it’s not convenient for you anymore.

There is certainly a virtue-signalling element to this. Though there is of course genuine desire to tackle Russian power and obviously a desire to do what is necessary, on some level.
It is also worth noting that Japan is a vassal state of the US and does not really have a wholesale independent foreign policy, but Washington gives them plenty of leeway to act when it is not against its interests. I don't know if that reality makes this news better or worse for the G7. But it does complicate the picture.

Things are happening so so fast. Saudi Arabia and Russia, alongside other oil exporters, have announced a big CUT in their oil production that will likely stimulate a new wave of global inflation. US uses the dollar alongside their currently high interest rates so that other places absorb it so that effects domestically are diminished, which stimulates people outside even more not seeing the dollar as trustworthy stable currency and wanting to strengthen gold-backed alternatives.

It’s each man for themselves, that’s the current rule we’re seeing.

[jaichind]

I guess this speaks to the (potential) direness of the energy situation in Japan.

They have no choice.  SA just did a production cut and as a result GS just raised their oil price estimate to 95.  Russia pretty much has its shadow fleet in place so Japan has the choice of buying oil form Russia above the cap or buying at a higher price from the world market or no oil.  From an inflation-fighting point of view, oil is better than no oil.  The most recent USA banking bailouts are de facto another QE so Biden and MBS are working to make things easier for Putin concerning world energy prices.

[Hindsight was 2020]

So I guess selling oil is going to be the new topic for jaichind and Red Velvet now that Russia economy is going into the crapper and “the global south” didn’t really show much Russian sympathy?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ouch. Even G7 nations don’t follow the standards they set themselves, how the hell they expect others to take them seriously? Germany “sanctioning” has also always been a joke.

Under BRICS leadership, economic matters will finally stop being used as a political matter. World needs a currency that’s stable and that countries don’t feel it can be turned against them out of nowhere by third parties backlash. Western nationalists can cry but the future is with globalization and you cannot reverse it whenever you feel it’s not convenient for you anymore.

There is certainly a virtue-signalling element to this. Though there is of course genuine desire to tackle Russian power and obviously a desire to do what is necessary, on some level.
It is also worth noting that Japan is a vassal state of the US and does not really have a wholesale independent foreign policy, but Washington gives them plenty of leeway to act when it is not against its interests. I don't know if that reality makes this news better or worse for the G7. But it does complicate the picture.

Things are happening so so fast. Saudi Arabia and Russia, alongside other oil exporters, have announced a big CUT in their oil production that will likely stimulate a new wave of global inflation. US uses the dollar alongside their currently high interest rates so that other places absorb it so that effects domestically are diminished, which stimulates people outside even more not seeing the dollar as trustworthy stable currency and wanting to strengthen gold-backed alternatives.

It’s each man for themselves, that’s the current rule we’re seeing.

That certainly is the mood from some quarters. We shall see in due time how much this changes this needle.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I guess this speaks to the (potential) direness of the energy situation in Japan.

They have no choice.  SA just did a production cut and as a result GS just raised their oil price estimate to 95.  Russia pretty much has its shadow fleet in place so Japan has the choice of buying oil form Russia above the cap or buying at a higher price from the world market or no oil.  From an inflation-fighting point of view, oil is better than no oil.  The most recent USA banking bailouts are de facto another QE so Biden and MBS are working to make things easier for Putin concerning world energy prices.

Interesting. Thanks for the info.
Things like this don't happen out of nowhere, so it's good to hear where it is coming from.

[jaichind]

I just experience this myself.  I have been in HK for a couple of days as part of a business trip.  My flight from NYC to HK on Cathy Pacific a couple of days ago was over Russia and then Mainland China and then HK.  This is my first trip to APAC where HK is my first destination so I do not think I ever took the Russia route yet until this time.   All my other trips to APAC over the last 30+ years have started either in Tokyo or Taipei where it made more sense to go the Alaska route.   Going from NYC to HK directly the most efficient path is via Russia and I cannot imagine any other way any airline would do it if they want to stay competitive.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1642262759294267393?s=20

Nothing says "winning this war" like relying on ammunition manufactured before the Cuban Missile Crisis.

wut. Are you admitting that Ukraine is losing the war?

[Woody]

I know this is war, but the suicide bombing of the Kerch Bridge, and the bombing of a cafe seems a lot like Al-Qaeda style tactics. It will do more harm than good for the Ukrainian cause.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So I guess selling oil is going to be the new topic for jaichind and Red Velvet now that Russia economy is going into the crapper and “the global south” didn’t really show much Russian sympathy?

It's a very visible weakness area for Western sanctions, considering oil is among the strongest and most important sectors in the Russian economy. There was no way we would ever be able to block Russia out of the petroleum market.
Russia, economically, is not really going to doomsday levels. It's lost soft power much quicker than it has lost economic power, if anything. And since it inherited Soviet-era institutions, it inherited Soviet-era relationships with Third World countries too. I don't think it was ever realistic for us to have a sanctions regime that achieved all its aspirational goals.

[Woody]

Russian law enforcement has (from what I can gather) arrested one of the suspects, started a manhunt for her boyfriend. Apparently Russian nationals; Darya Trepova, who supposedly gave the bust to Vladlen, and her boyfriend who is a member of the Libertarian Party of Russia, Dmitri Rylov. Both were detained prior, during the anti-war protests in Russia - Feb-March 2022.

https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1642640876877799424

[BG-NY]

Is there even popular support within Russia for this invasion/annexation anymore?

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1642262759294267393?s=20

Nothing says "winning this war" like relying on ammunition manufactured before the Cuban Missile Crisis.

wut. Are you admitting that Ukraine is losing the war?

No I was being juvenile, and was a little frustrated at what I perceived were supply chain issues -so  I went for the snarky one-liner rather than contributing something of value, or shutting up.

Unlike some, I’m actively rooting for an Ukraine victory, and think the Russians are still in a deep quagmire of their own design.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1642643980960579584
Lol “legally taken” is the spin the 🤡 is going for

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1642262759294267393?s=20

Nothing says "winning this war" like relying on ammunition manufactured before the Cuban Missile Crisis.

wut. Are you admitting that Ukraine is losing the war?

No I was being juvenile, and was a little frustrated at what I perceived were supply chain issues -so  I went for the snarky one-liner rather than contributing something of value, or shutting up.

Unlike some, I’m actively rooting for an Ukraine victory, and think the Russians are still in a deep quagmire of their own design.

It’s really embarrassing how much Woodbury can’t admit Russia isn’t the mighty force he thought it was. Take here for example, there are numerous examples of Russia using outdated equipment documented here with no comment from him but now wants to latch onto this tweet as a smoking gun of Ukraine losing

[NOVA Green]

So was Tatarsky/Fomin killed by the Ukrainians (for being a disgusting Russian nationalist and warmonger) or by the Russians (for his public criticisms of Putin for allegedly being "too soft" on Ukraine)?

The 3rd option would be that he was taken out by Russian dissident formations. We already know that a Russian underground organization claimed credit for the bombing of the FSB warehouse in which several individuals died and others wounded. There is another Russian organization which identifies as Anarcho-Communist which has conducted numerous sabotage activities against train tracks shipping Russian troops and supplies to Ukraine & Belarus, as well as attacks on Russian recruitment / draft offices and has not ruled out taking armed actions against pro-war targets.

Personally I still tend to be skeptical of Ukrainian capabilities to undertake covert activities within most of Russia itself, with the possible exception of areas close to the border.

My opinion FWIW is that Tatarsky/Fomin most likely targeted by individuals connected to either the regime or military leaders who felt that his criticism's of how the "special military operation" was being conducted crossed a line and yet realized that it would not be possible to charge him under the same laws used against Russian anti-war individuals without creating significant internal tensions within the Russian State.

[BG-NY]

There are potential nine camps here, right?

(1) Russia is winning, wants Russia to win
(2) Russia is winning, ambivalent
(3) Russia is winning, wants Ukraine to win
(4) Stalemate, wants Russia to win
(5) Stalemate, ambivalent
(6) Stalemate, wants Ukraine to win
(7) Ukraine is winning, wants Russia to win
( Ukraine is winning, ambivalent
(9) Ukraine is winning, wants Ukraine to win

Are we saying that Woodbury, Jaichind, and this global south guy are necessarily in camp 1?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There are potential nine camps here, right?

(1) Russia is winning, wants Russia to win
(2) Russia is winning, ambivalent
(3) Russia is winning, wants Ukraine to win
(4) Stalemate, wants Russia to win
(5) Stalemate, ambivalent
(6) Stalemate, wants Ukraine to win
(7) Ukraine is winning, wants Russia to win
(8) Ukraine is winning, ambivalent
(9) Ukraine is winning, wants Ukraine to win

Are we saying that Woodbury, Jaichind, and this global south guy are necessarily in camp 1?

Personally I would place Jaichind in camp 5, Woodbury in camp 6 (but hateful towards the existing American and Ukrainian leadership), and RedVelvet as closest to camp 2.
I end up in camp 6. And a lot of people are in camp 9 obviously.
By the way, I'm using this setup for a poll. Thanks for giving it to me, I'll credit you in the OP.

[Woody]

"Russia is not winning" - 3/4 of the city is in Russian hands now.

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1642668716591570944?cxt=HHwWgICzgdOf98stAAA...
https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1642669258667704321

[Logical]

This is the woman who brought the bomb to the Cafe. She and her husband are still at large. St. Pete is about an hour away from the border so if they are smart, they would be in Finland or Estonia by now.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1642623933483556864

[NOVA Green]

This is the woman who brought the bomb to the Cafe. She and her husband are still at large. St. Pete is about an hour away from the border so if they are smart, they would be in Finland or Estonia by now.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1642623933483556864

Hmmm... so Russian "lone wolf" style using a "Propaganda of the Deed" circa 1880s / 1890s which Bakunin popularized within the movement?

Still could it be a Russian false flag style gig to discredit the Anti-War movement within Russia itself?

[John Dule]

Russian law enforcement has (from what I can gather) arrested one of the suspects, started a manhunt for her boyfriend. Apparently Russian nationals; Darya Trepova, who supposedly gave the bust to Vladlen, and her boyfriend who is a member of the Libertarian Party of Russia, Dmitri Rylov. Both were detained prior, during the anti-war protests in Russia - Feb-March 2022.

https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1642640876877799424

Libertarian Party of Russia > Libertarian Party of America

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Russian law enforcement has (from what I can gather) arrested one of the suspects, started a manhunt for her boyfriend. Apparently Russian nationals; Darya Trepova, who supposedly gave the bust to Vladlen, and her boyfriend who is a member of the Libertarian Party of Russia, Dmitri Rylov. Both were detained prior, during the anti-war protests in Russia - Feb-March 2022.

https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1642640876877799424

Libertarian Party of Russia > Libertarian Party of America

Libertarian Party of Russia: *uses drivers licenses to protest Putin's war*
Libertarian Party of America: drivers licenses are against freedom!