Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Antonio the Sixth]

I can't f**king believe anyone is still taking "fears of escalation" seriously with Putin. This is ridiculous. We keep tying one hand behind Ukraine's back because we're afraid that if we untie it Putin will whine that it's unfair and then... do what? Launch nukes? It's obvious he won't do that and anyone who thinks otherwise is a fool.

[Hindsight was 2020]

But at the same time Ukraine is going to rightly want to join NATO because Putin has shown he won’t honor any peace treaty he signs with Ukraine so Ukraine needs security guarantees from the West that would deter Putin or his successors to pull this crap again. So if Ukraine isn’t going into NATO it’s going to want defensive pacts from us and Europe that would be at a NATO level of commitment

[Virginiá]

There's definitely got to be some sort of security guarantee long-term. I do worry NATO might not happen in the end, or at least for a long time, because of one or more member countries trying to appease Russia, and/or other larger western powers ultimately deciding the risk of Article 5 with Russia is too great and isn't worth the potential cost or risk to the alliance itself, particularly for the US when they are trying to reorient their focus in the world. I can't help but think this every time I see handwringing about "escalation" when this war comes up.

[The Mikado]

A very unusual exchange on Russian television, containing criticism of Putin:

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1644038823368613889?s=20

I ask you gentlemen, is this stupidity or is this treason?

-Pavel Miliukov

[The Mikado]

Can we admit Ukraine into the EU and NATO already?

NATO doesn't admit countries with current border disputes.

THAT SAID, regardless of how the war ends, a finalization of the borders seems a likely part of whatever deal emerges (that'd be true in a situation where Russia takes big chunks of Ukraine, a scenario that stalemates, a scenario where Ukraine reclaims most but not all of its land, and a scenario where Ukraine totally expels Russia, IMO).

I think that it's basically near-inevitable Ukraine joins NATO AFTER the war to deter another future war. And I think this happens regardless of what the war's outcome is here on out. Ukraine will never feel safe from Russia trying to take another bite of it unless it's in NATO.

[The Mikado]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1644085904427089920
https://mobile.twitter.com/GeopoliticalGu1/status/1644101157743374337

Is it just me or is Ukraine putting any forces on the Kinburn Split f**king insane? It's totally indefensible. If this is just Ukraine using artillery to force Russia out, fine, but trying to occupy it is just ridiculous right now. You'd be trapped on a peninsula.

[Storr]

From the original leaked documents. These numbers seem very plausible, as you'd expect from a confidential or top secret DOD document:

Russian estimated KIA: 35,500 to 43,500

Ukrainian estimated KIA: 16,000 to 17,500

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1644171431289188353?s=20

[Storr]

There are other claimed leaked documents that have been floating around on twitter that appear fishy to me. They look way too fuzzy (a classic tactic when manipulating/editing photos or other media) or unprofessional. This one is claimed to be unedited and downloaded directly from 4chan and at least looks like something I'd expect the DOD to produce.

https://twitter.com/pingasliker/status/1644183200644866048?s=20

click on the photo to see the document in higher resolution:

[dead0man]

Is it just me or is Ukraine putting any forces on the Kinburn Split f**king insane? It's totally indefensible. If this is just Ukraine using artillery to force Russia out, fine, but trying to occupy it is just ridiculous right now. You'd be trapped on a peninsula.

1.Russia would have to pull troops from elsewhere to block it or take it back
2.it has a natural choke point that Russians trying to retake it will have to go through, if the Ukrainians play their cards right, they can kill a lot of Russians at that choke point.
3.They don't have to properly take the peninsula, just make life hell for the Russians there, occasionally show up and blow sh**t up, then GTFO.  Make the Russian Colonels in the area more crazy than they already are.

[CumbrianLefty]

I can't f**king believe anyone is still taking "fears of escalation" seriously with Putin. This is ridiculous. We keep tying one hand behind Ukraine's back because we're afraid that if we untie it Putin will whine that it's unfair and then... do what? Launch nukes? It's obvious he won't do that and anyone who thinks otherwise is a fool.

There will always be a certain amount of caution as long as Russia has nukes, that's just how it is.

[Torie]

Is it just me or is Ukraine putting any forces on the Kinburn Split f**king insane? It's totally indefensible. If this is just Ukraine using artillery to force Russia out, fine, but trying to occupy it is just ridiculous right now. You'd be trapped on a peninsula.

1.Russia would have to pull troops from elsewhere to block it or take it back
2.it has a natural choke point that Russians trying to retake it will have to go through, if the Ukrainians play their cards right, they can kill a lot of Russians at that choke point.
3.They don't have to properly take the peninsula, just make life hell for the Russians there, occasionally show up and blow sh**t up, then GTFO.  Make the Russian Colonels in the area more crazy than they already are.

If Ukraine launches its attempt to sever the land bridge, the peninsula for Russia will rapidly become beside the point. It also is obviously not a good spot for Ukraine to launch an offensive even if it becomes counter productive for Russia to continue to occupy it.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/pati_marins64/status/1644078412309381121
“Global South” in shambles

[Red Velvet]

https://mobile.twitter.com/pati_marins64/status/1644078412309381121
“Global South” in shambles

Maybe you should try leaning portuguese first? hahahaha

Lula said this:

“Putin não pode ficar com o terreno da Ucrânia. Talvez nem se discuta a Crimeia, mas o que ele invadiu (em 2022) vai ter de repensar”, ressaltou o presidente. “O (Volodymyr) Zelensky não pode querer também tudo o que ele pensa que vai querer.”

No café desta quinta, Lula repetiu a defesa da “integridade territorial de cada nação”. Segundo ele, porém, “o mundo desenvolvido, sobretudo a União Europeia e os Estados Unidos, não poderia ter aceitado entrar na guerra da forma como entrou, com rapidez, sem antes gastar muito tempo tentando negociar”

“A guerra começou e alguém tem que parar. Os dois não vão tomar a iniciativa de parar. Alguém de fora tem que ajudar”, reforçou. “A paz é mais complicada do que a guerra. Guerra é um desejo insano, mas a guerra tem de ser construída.”

Pretty much continues the neutral both sides conciliation position he always had. And clearly BLAMES western nations for putting fire on the war to stimulate it instead of trying to construct peace.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/pati_marins64/status/1644078412309381121
“Global South” in shambles

Maybe you should try leaning portuguese first? hahahaha

Lula said this:

“Putin não pode ficar com o terreno da Ucrânia. Talvez nem se discuta a Crimeia, mas o que ele invadiu (em 2022) vai ter de repensar”, ressaltou o presidente. “O (Volodymyr) Zelensky não pode querer também tudo o que ele pensa que vai querer.”

No café desta quinta, Lula repetiu a defesa da “integridade territorial de cada nação”. Segundo ele, porém, “o mundo desenvolvido, sobretudo a União Europeia e os Estados Unidos, não poderia ter aceitado entrar na guerra da forma como entrou, com rapidez, sem antes gastar muito tempo tentando negociar”

“A guerra começou e alguém tem que parar. Os dois não vão tomar a iniciativa de parar. Alguém de fora tem que ajudar”, reforçou. “A paz é mais complicada do que a guerra. Guerra é um desejo insano, mas a guerra tem de ser construída.”

Pretty much continues the neutral both sides conciliation position he always had. And clearly BLAMES western nations for putting fire on the war to stimulate it instead of trying to construct peace.

He’s still demanding Russia return the stolen land back. Cope

[Antonio the Sixth]

I can't f**king believe anyone is still taking "fears of escalation" seriously with Putin. This is ridiculous. We keep tying one hand behind Ukraine's back because we're afraid that if we untie it Putin will whine that it's unfair and then... do what? Launch nukes? It's obvious he won't do that and anyone who thinks otherwise is a fool.

There will always be a certain amount of caution as long as Russia has nukes, that's just how it is.

There's "some amount of caution" and then there's drawing completely arbitrary red lines for yourself based on vibes rather than any concrete rationale.

[Hindsight was 2020]

So Ukraine set up a surrender hotline last year for Russian troops and Ukraine intel chief is reporting a record 3k Russian soldiers used to hotline to coordinate surrenders last month and even handed over armored vehicles and other heavy equipment
https://www.businessinsider.com/russians-offer-armored-vehicles-on-ukraine-surrender-hotline-official-2023-4?amp

[jaichind]

https://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-putin-popularity-us-record-high-poll-1793000

"Putin's Popularity Reaches Record High in the U.S.—Poll"

[Torie]

https://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-putin-popularity-us-record-high-poll-1793000

"Putin's Popularity Reaches Record High in the U.S.—Poll"

You did not bother to observe that per this poll, Putin's record popularity is now at 21% from 15%, based on a poll where we don't know the sample size or the margin of error or reliability.

Gallup in a poll conducted last month found that Russia's popularity went from 15% down to 9%. Fancy that.

https://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-putin-popularity-us-record-high-poll-1793000

You are an intelligent and informed poster, and I cannot really understand why you embarrass yourself in this way, as you seem to go out of your way to appear to be something of an agitprop shill, typically for incredibly unpopular causes to boot.

Anyway, for your reading pleasure here is a Paul Krugman article that Russia's energy offensive has been a total fail (remember all those posts you made about the coming national gas disaster for Europe?), just like the balance of its pugilistic efforts involving Ukraine, starting with its disastrous Kiev campaign from which it never really recovered.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/06/opinion/putins-energy-natural-gas.html

On this one, you may be shilling for the losing side. You might consider cutting him loose and your losses, and sell him out, or even better, short him.

[Red Velvet]

https://mobile.twitter.com/pati_marins64/status/1644078412309381121
“Global South” in shambles

Maybe you should try leaning portuguese first? hahahaha

Lula said this:

“Putin não pode ficar com o terreno da Ucrânia. Talvez nem se discuta a Crimeia, mas o que ele invadiu (em 2022) vai ter de repensar”, ressaltou o presidente. “O (Volodymyr) Zelensky não pode querer também tudo o que ele pensa que vai querer.”

No café desta quinta, Lula repetiu a defesa da “integridade territorial de cada nação”. Segundo ele, porém, “o mundo desenvolvido, sobretudo a União Europeia e os Estados Unidos, não poderia ter aceitado entrar na guerra da forma como entrou, com rapidez, sem antes gastar muito tempo tentando negociar”

“A guerra começou e alguém tem que parar. Os dois não vão tomar a iniciativa de parar. Alguém de fora tem que ajudar”, reforçou. “A paz é mais complicada do que a guerra. Guerra é um desejo insano, mas a guerra tem de ser construída.”

Pretty much continues the neutral both sides conciliation position he always had. And clearly BLAMES western nations for putting fire on the war to stimulate it instead of trying to construct peace.

He’s still demanding Russia return the stolen land back. Cope

Your fear is so funny.

[Woody]

Is it just me or is Ukraine putting any forces on the Kinburn Split f**king insane? It's totally indefensible. If this is just Ukraine using artillery to force Russia out, fine, but trying to occupy it is just ridiculous right now. You'd be trapped on a peninsula.

The Ukrainians are purposely saying they drove Russians out of the Kinburn Split, the thin patch. Not the Kinburn peninsula itself. They are being vague.

This is what they are talking about. The green patch is the Kinburn split:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/88/Kinburn_map_ukr.png

[Woody]

So Ukraine set up a surrender hotline last year for Russian troops and Ukraine intel chief is reporting a record 3k Russian soldiers used to hotline to coordinate surrenders last month and even handed over armored vehicles and other heavy equipment
https://www.businessinsider.com/russians-offer-armored-vehicles-on-ukraine-surrender-hotline-official-2023-4?amp

Yeah, no. This is BS.

[Woody]

Wagner & Russian Army has reached the railway line, fighting currently going on near the railway station.

The AFU's presence in the city is now only measly limited to it's western district.

https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1644356441434669056?cxt=HHwWgIC2_ZTe9tEtA...
https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1644365065246633991

[Torie]

Wagner & Russian Army has reached the railway line, fighting currently going on near the railway station.

The AFU's presence in the city is now only measly limited to it's western district.

Hey Woody, do you think Putin will complete his conquest of Bakhmut before losing his land bridge to Crimea? Any predictions?

[Storr]

This is pretty incredible with how Russia targeted Ukraine's electricity grid using missile and drone attacks:

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1644413446706851841?s=20

[Storr]

I'm a sucker for a good photograph:

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1644203849719373826?s=20

Edited to add this UkAF photo I saw last week:

https://twitter.com/KpsZSU/status/1640657205014700033?s=20