2020 Texas Redistricting thread

[Nyvin]

Conservative Election Twitter is not happy right now.

I don't see why, it's a pretty good map for Republicans

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

The TX GOP Congressional proposal is patently absurd in terms of the district shapes. It is hard to say whether TX-04, TX-33, or TX-10, is the craziest. I'll go with TX-33 I think. Gotta love that wrap-around...

But in terms of the partisan effects, it is probably about the best that TX Dems could realistically hope the Republicans would draw, because they didn't go *as* crazy as they could have. They didn't go after TX-32, TX-7, or try to dismantle VRA seats, so there is at least some acknowledgement of demographic reality there. Possibly TX-38 might also be competitive-ish by the end of the decade. Probably not, but at least possibly. And I am not sure TX-22 and TX-24 are totally out of the woods, but realistically should remain pretty easily R for a decade.

Of course, the reason for that is not a sudden appreciation for good government or scruples against gerrymandering, rather it is just to protect incumbents (for example, the "community of interest" good government redistricting of TX-13 taking in Denton).

[The Ex-Factor]

“Everybody knows you're gonna have to give stuff up, and some people are gonna get things,” said GOP Rep. Ronny Jackson, who represents the most Republican-leaning seat in the state, where Trump beat President Joe Biden by 60 points. “In particular I'm an R+33," he added, referencing the district's Partisan Voter Index. "So I just walked into this knowing like I'm giving up a lot, you know? I mean, I'm not gonna be an R+33 anymore — there's just no way.”

Ronny Jackson understood the assignment.

[Skill and Chance]

Conservative Election Twitter is not happy right now.

I don't see why, it's a pretty good map for Republicans

I know.  While Dems will probably get TX-21 and at least one more seat out of DFW by the end of the decade, Republicans will probably flip TX-15 next year and TX-28 whenever Cuellar retires.  I don't see what's not to like for TX R's?  If Dems can take a majority of the seats on this map by the end of the decade, it was an AR 2011 style lost cause anyway.  

[Skill and Chance]

“Everybody knows you're gonna have to give stuff up, and some people are gonna get things,” said GOP Rep. Ronny Jackson, who represents the most Republican-leaning seat in the state, where Trump beat President Joe Biden by 60 points. “In particular I'm an R+33," he added, referencing the district's Partisan Voter Index. "So I just walked into this knowing like I'm giving up a lot, you know? I mean, I'm not gonna be an R+33 anymore — there's just no way.”

Ronny Jackson understood the assignment.

Ironically, he's one of the few Republicans who could actually lose a double digit Trump seat (something like a 55% Trump/43% Biden seat, in an R president midterm), but they only took him from ~80% to ~70% Trump, so he's still completely safe.

[Skill and Chance]

The TX GOP Congressional proposal is patently absurd in terms of the district shapes. It is hard to say whether TX-04, TX-33, or TX-10, is the craziest. I'll go with TX-33 I think. Gotta love that wrap-around...

But in terms of the partisan effects, it is probably about the best that TX Dems could realistically hope the Republicans would draw, because they didn't go *as* crazy as they could have. They didn't go after TX-32, TX-7, or try to dismantle VRA seats, so there is at least some acknowledgement of demographic reality there. Possibly TX-38 might also be competitive-ish by the end of the decade. Probably not, but at least possibly. And I am not sure TX-22 and TX-24 are totally out of the woods, but realistically should remain pretty easily R for a decade.

Of course, the reason for that is not a sudden appreciation for good government or scruples against gerrymandering, rather it is just to protect incumbents (for example, the "community of interest" good government redistricting of TX-13 taking in Denton).

They clearly believe they can flip 2/3 of the RGV VRA seats this decade and hold TX-23.  In this case, preserving the VRA configuration is in their interest.  In the event Dems control the process in the 2030's or it deadlocks and goes to court, they can sue to preserve a bunch of R seats along the border and keep the Dem packed configuration of TX-07.  The 5th Circuit might suddenly have a new appreciation for the VRA...

[Gass3268]

Conservative Election Twitter is not happy right now.

I don't see why, it's a pretty good map for Republicans

I know.  While Dems will probably get TX-21 and at least one more seat out of DFW by the end of the decade, Republicans will probably flip TX-15 next year and TX-28 whenever Cuellar retires.  I don't see what's not to like for TX R's?  If Dems can take a majority of the seats on this map by the end of the decade, it was an AR 2011 style lost cause anyway.  

They have a very poor understanding of the VRA and thick they can eliminate the fajita strips and pack the RGV. They also think that Fletcher and Allred should have had their seats eliminated.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1442514259842375689?s=20

[Torie]

Well, the Texas Pubs clearly did not take my advice, and yes, they should be sued, and then sued some more (probably for precisely the opposite reasons Gass has in mind but whatever). The below image has to be competitive with MD in insane erosity. I get that TX-33 was an attempt to do a crude Hispanic pack, but what is TX-04 all about?  

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think it’s interesting how horrendous visually DFW is while Houston is actually pretty clean, though neither are fair. This definitely isn’t the most extreme gerrymander we could’ve gotten, but things can still change and it is still a gerrymander at the end of the day

[Devils30]

Could TX-15 be a mistake for the Rs if San Antonio area keeps trending D? The north end of the district could offset the GOP trend in the RGV.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Could TX-15 be a mistake for the Rs if San Antonio area keeps trending D? The north end of the district could offset the GOP trend in the RGV.

It looks like it really doesn’t take in very much population wise of Bexar, and even the parts it does mostly trended R in 2020.

[Torie]

I think it’s interesting how horrendous visually DFW is while Houston is actually pretty clean, though neither are fair. This definitely isn’t the most extreme gerrymander we could’ve gotten, but things can still change and it is still a gerrymander at the end of the day

Yes, mine was a much better Pubmander, and legal. It is almost always a mistake to try to get inside the heads of TX Pubs, much less assume that they have some modicum of rationality.

[Oryxslayer]

Well, the Texas Pubs clearly did not take my advice, and yes, they should be sued, and then sued some more (probably for precisely the opposite reasons Gass has in mind but whatever). The below image has to be competitive with MD in insane erosity. I get that TX-33 was an attempt to do a crude Hispanic pack, but what is TX-04 all about?  

I guarantee that TX-04 was caused by van taylor of Plano wanting his seat to still be anchored by those SW Collin suburbs - even though they will be very blue by 2030 - while also wanting his seat to be safe. The end result is that messy arm.

[Nyvin]

I think it’s interesting how horrendous visually DFW is while Houston is actually pretty clean, though neither are fair. This definitely isn’t the most extreme gerrymander we could’ve gotten, but things can still change and it is still a gerrymander at the end of the day

All I can think of is they took the 2016 to 2020 trend into account when drawing the two metros, and DFW had them a lot more worried in regards to future elections.   Houston was easier to keep together because there isn't as much of a dem trend.

On a side note, what's even the point of that TX-4 southern tendril?   Rockwall voted 68% Trump and only has 104k people.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think it’s interesting how horrendous visually DFW is while Houston is actually pretty clean, though neither are fair. This definitely isn’t the most extreme gerrymander we could’ve gotten, but things can still change and it is still a gerrymander at the end of the day

All I can think of is they took the 2016 to 2020 trend into account when drawing the two metros, and DFW had them a lot more worried in regards to future elections.   Houston was easier to keep together because there isn't as much of a dem trend.

On a side note, what's even the point of that TX-4 southern tendril?   Rockwall voted 68% Trump and only has 104k people.

Exactly my question too. Why not give Hunt to TX-4 and Rockwell to TX-3?

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Texas's proposed map vs current map. They're really desperate in protecting all the GOP Incumbants.

[lfromnj]

The DFW Map does give the 90's Frostmander a run for its money.

[Stuart98]

One consequence of this map: Jessica Cisneros' chances of unseating Cuellar are alive and well (and stronger than on the old map, perhaps). Really thought they were gonna remove TX-28 from metro San Antonio to shore up Cuellar in the primary.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1442499781838901249

Wasserman's analysis

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So, as expected, they left Fletcher alone.
The demands of incumbents took precedence over the flipping of recently lost seats.

[Greedo punched first]

So, as expected, they left Fletcher alone.
The demands of incumbents took precedence over the flipping of recently lost seats.

Is the TXGOP trying to prevent a dummymander?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So, as expected, they left Fletcher alone.
The demands of incumbents took precedence over the flipping of recently lost seats.

Is the TXGOP trying to prevent a dummymander?

It doesn't seem to have been their intentional goal, but in most of the state, it seems as though they did this as a by-product.

[It’s so Joever]

Better for Dems short term, worse for Dems long term. I’ll take it.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Both swing district dems get safe seats, though Fletcher is out likely through a primary to a minority candidate. Also new Austin seat OFC. New Districts 38 and 7 really should trade numbers, cause 38 is a clear successor, and it's probably why the GOP was pushing for Wesley Hunt to run again.

You can tell their desperate and recognize the state is falling, what with the narrow linkages needed to maximize packing and cracking potential. Things like 35 getting narrower between the cities, 10 squiggling around Austin, the alternating tendrils of 33 and 6, and whatever the hell 4 is trying to do.

Regarding Fletcher, I do not agree that she is likely to lose to a minority candidate in a primary. It is possible, sure, but there is no particular reason to think so.

Her district still has a lot of the high education, high income, high turnout heavily white areas Around Bellaire that used to vote R but have flipped to solidly Dem in the Trump era. At least as importantly, it also has added to it white liberal areas that were NOT in the previous (current) TX-07 and were in the old TX-02 instead. Namely the Montrose area nearby Rice University, which is very heavily Dem, high turnout, and white liberal. That area has one of the highest Dem vote margins proportional to population of anywhere in the Houston area, even beating out a lot of African American areas (due to the high turnout). That provides a lot of voters who will turn out in Dem primaries and are likely to be happy with Fletcher.

Secondly, it is true that this new TX-07 has a lot of minority voters, but those minority voters are very diverse, a good mix of African American, Hispanic, and Asian. A hypothetical minority challenger would be one specific minority. There is no reason why e.g. an African American primary challenger would be expected to appeal more than Fletcher to Hispanics and Asians (and likewise for hypothetical Asian/Hispanic challengers).

Thirdly, the district is geographically fairly split up. Even if a hypothetical primary challenger had particular appeal in one area, they probably wouldn't have it in the rest of the district. It is pretty non-compact, so you would have to have a candidate with pre-existing appeal throughout a broad swathe of the west Houston metro area.

Fletcher is also pretty likely, I would think, to appeal in the Fort Bend parts of the newly drawn district for the same reasons that she appeals in her current district. There are a lot of similar sorts of voters there, and she is unlikely to have a particular problem appealing to Dem voters in places like Sugar Land etc.