2020 Texas Redistricting thread (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 08:58:51 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  2020 Texas Redistricting thread (search mode)
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: 2020 Texas Redistricting thread  (Read 57082 times)
I知 not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


« on: July 19, 2020, 04:40:26 PM »


https://davesredistricting.org/join/1c8bc548-612f-4f68-9789-961c6f5f335c
Here is a good starting point for Texas redistricting. To be clear, I do not support this map it is too risky but this is the maximum Republicans could draw and still have hold up in court. The current Voting Rights Act seats are maintained but no additional democrat-leaning seats are drawn. Fletcher and Aldred's seats are cut up and made safe R.  I also found a way to make TX-23 lean a lot more Republican without making it any less Hispanic.  I removed a lot of the San Antonio suburbs, and included more rural whites and West Texas conservative Hispanics. Now the district went for Trump by 6 points, likely for Cruz as well. I believe it would hold up in court, since the current one did and this district is no less Hispanic. 69% total and 62% citizen VAP.  Another crucial change I made is sending the fajita strips into Austin instead of rural white areas.  They are all 82-83% Hispanic, so shouldn't count as packs, that are Hispanic enough so Austin white libs won't control the primaries.  I also increased the Hispanic percentage and Lloyd Doggett's seat so it should actually perform as a vra seat.  Overall I tried to get most Republican seats to around Trump+25.  My Waco based seat Trump+13, but that should be pretty safe given that the district does not include any suburbs.  It actually trended slightly red from 2008.  The remainder of the Republican seats range from Trump+20 to 30.  Also, suburban-rural combos should hold up better over the decade.  This map is 27R-1LR-11D. 

If I were the Texas Republicans, I'd make it 24R-1LR-14D, with the additional vote sinks in Austin, Dallas, and Houston.  If you do that, you can get the suburban Trump districts to Trump+30, and have more minority seats, which helps the map survive court challenges.

Is that even legal?
Logged
I知 not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


« Reply #1 on: July 19, 2020, 05:21:53 PM »


https://davesredistricting.org/join/1c8bc548-612f-4f68-9789-961c6f5f335c
Here is a good starting point for Texas redistricting. To be clear, I do not support this map it is too risky but this is the maximum Republicans could draw and still have hold up in court. The current Voting Rights Act seats are maintained but no additional democrat-leaning seats are drawn. Fletcher and Aldred's seats are cut up and made safe R.  I also found a way to make TX-23 lean a lot more Republican without making it any less Hispanic.  I removed a lot of the San Antonio suburbs, and included more rural whites and West Texas conservative Hispanics. Now the district went for Trump by 6 points, likely for Cruz as well. I believe it would hold up in court, since the current one did and this district is no less Hispanic. 69% total and 62% citizen VAP.  Another crucial change I made is sending the fajita strips into Austin instead of rural white areas.  They are all 82-83% Hispanic, so shouldn't count as packs, that are Hispanic enough so Austin white libs won't control the primaries.  I also increased the Hispanic percentage and Lloyd Doggett's seat so it should actually perform as a vra seat.  Overall I tried to get most Republican seats to around Trump+25.  My Waco based seat Trump+13, but that should be pretty safe given that the district does not include any suburbs.  It actually trended slightly red from 2008.  The remainder of the Republican seats range from Trump+20 to 30.  Also, suburban-rural combos should hold up better over the decade.  This map is 27R-1LR-11D.  

If I were the Texas Republicans, I'd make it 24R-1LR-14D, with the additional vote sinks in Austin, Dallas, and Houston.  If you do that, you can get the suburban Trump districts to Trump+30, and have more minority seats, which helps the map survive court challenges.

Is that even legal?

I don't think so, given that there really should be 4 majority-minority seats between Harris and Fort Bend counties. Given such a seat would come naturally and even exists in the current map, in the form of TX-22, it's easy to argue that minority votes will split and diluted too much in this map. Even putting that aside, this map is dead on arrival, since there is no consideration for incumbent residencies. Also taking the fajitas into Austin is probably a non starter and there's no good reason to do that. There are also some contiguity issues here that need to be fixed.
Aren稚 the fajitas on this map far less compact than the current ones? Were any minority seats turned into white ones?
Logged
I知 not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


« Reply #2 on: July 19, 2020, 05:45:13 PM »


https://davesredistricting.org/join/1c8bc548-612f-4f68-9789-961c6f5f335c
Here is a good starting point for Texas redistricting. To be clear, I do not support this map it is too risky but this is the maximum Republicans could draw and still have hold up in court. The current Voting Rights Act seats are maintained but no additional democrat-leaning seats are drawn. Fletcher and Aldred's seats are cut up and made safe R.  I also found a way to make TX-23 lean a lot more Republican without making it any less Hispanic.  I removed a lot of the San Antonio suburbs, and included more rural whites and West Texas conservative Hispanics. Now the district went for Trump by 6 points, likely for Cruz as well. I believe it would hold up in court, since the current one did and this district is no less Hispanic. 69% total and 62% citizen VAP.  Another crucial change I made is sending the fajita strips into Austin instead of rural white areas.  They are all 82-83% Hispanic, so shouldn't count as packs, that are Hispanic enough so Austin white libs won't control the primaries.  I also increased the Hispanic percentage and Lloyd Doggett's seat so it should actually perform as a vra seat.  Overall I tried to get most Republican seats to around Trump+25.  My Waco based seat Trump+13, but that should be pretty safe given that the district does not include any suburbs.  It actually trended slightly red from 2008.  The remainder of the Republican seats range from Trump+20 to 30.  Also, suburban-rural combos should hold up better over the decade.  This map is 27R-1LR-11D.  

If I were the Texas Republicans, I'd make it 24R-1LR-14D, with the additional vote sinks in Austin, Dallas, and Houston.  If you do that, you can get the suburban Trump districts to Trump+30, and have more minority seats, which helps the map survive court challenges.

Is that even legal?

I don't think so, given that there really should be 4 majority-minority seats between Harris and Fort Bend counties. Given such a seat would come naturally and even exists in the current map, in the form of TX-22, it's easy to argue that minority votes will split and diluted too much in this map. Even putting that aside, this map is dead on arrival, since there is no consideration for incumbent residencies. Also taking the fajitas into Austin is probably a non starter and there's no good reason to do that. There are also some contiguity issues here that need to be fixed.

Also these "Spiral" maps with bacon-strip districts sprawling all over the place are posted online a lot but they never become a reality in any state.   There are other factors at play in map drawing than just partisanship.
This 18D-0R Illinois map is legal. It has the 3 AA districts and 1 Hispanic district.

Logged
I知 not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


« Reply #3 on: July 19, 2020, 06:07:33 PM »

I know it will not become reality, but it is legal. Are Idaho Conservative's maps at least legal?
Logged
I知 not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


« Reply #4 on: July 19, 2020, 06:11:29 PM »


https://davesredistricting.org/join/1c8bc548-612f-4f68-9789-961c6f5f335c
Here is a good starting point for Texas redistricting. To be clear, I do not support this map it is too risky but this is the maximum Republicans could draw and still have hold up in court. The current Voting Rights Act seats are maintained but no additional democrat-leaning seats are drawn. Fletcher and Aldred's seats are cut up and made safe R.  I also found a way to make TX-23 lean a lot more Republican without making it any less Hispanic.  I removed a lot of the San Antonio suburbs, and included more rural whites and West Texas conservative Hispanics. Now the district went for Trump by 6 points, likely for Cruz as well. I believe it would hold up in court, since the current one did and this district is no less Hispanic. 69% total and 62% citizen VAP.  Another crucial change I made is sending the fajita strips into Austin instead of rural white areas.  They are all 82-83% Hispanic, so shouldn't count as packs, that are Hispanic enough so Austin white libs won't control the primaries.  I also increased the Hispanic percentage and Lloyd Doggett's seat so it should actually perform as a vra seat.  Overall I tried to get most Republican seats to around Trump+25.  My Waco based seat Trump+13, but that should be pretty safe given that the district does not include any suburbs.  It actually trended slightly red from 2008.  The remainder of the Republican seats range from Trump+20 to 30.  Also, suburban-rural combos should hold up better over the decade.  This map is 27R-1LR-11D.  

If I were the Texas Republicans, I'd make it 24R-1LR-14D, with the additional vote sinks in Austin, Dallas, and Houston.  If you do that, you can get the suburban Trump districts to Trump+30, and have more minority seats, which helps the map survive court challenges.

Is that even legal?

I don't think so, given that there really should be 4 majority-minority seats between Harris and Fort Bend counties. Given such a seat would come naturally and even exists in the current map, in the form of TX-22, it's easy to argue that minority votes will split and diluted too much in this map. Even putting that aside, this map is dead on arrival, since there is no consideration for incumbent residencies. Also taking the fajitas into Austin is probably a non starter and there's no good reason to do that. There are also some contiguity issues here that need to be fixed.

Also these "Spiral" maps with bacon-strip districts sprawling all over the place are posted online a lot but they never become a reality in any state.   There are other factors at play in map drawing than just partisanship.
Did you even read what I wrote?  I didn't draw this map to be realistic, I drew the maximum gerrymander to show it is possible.  It would be smart to add 3 additional vote sinks, in Austin, Houston, and DFW.
That isn稚 even the maximum gerrymander. The maximum GOP gerrymander would still be more Democratic than that map.
Logged
I知 not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


« Reply #5 on: July 19, 2020, 06:15:40 PM »


https://davesredistricting.org/join/1c8bc548-612f-4f68-9789-961c6f5f335c
Here is a good starting point for Texas redistricting. To be clear, I do not support this map it is too risky but this is the maximum Republicans could draw and still have hold up in court. The current Voting Rights Act seats are maintained but no additional democrat-leaning seats are drawn. Fletcher and Aldred's seats are cut up and made safe R.  I also found a way to make TX-23 lean a lot more Republican without making it any less Hispanic.  I removed a lot of the San Antonio suburbs, and included more rural whites and West Texas conservative Hispanics. Now the district went for Trump by 6 points, likely for Cruz as well. I believe it would hold up in court, since the current one did and this district is no less Hispanic. 69% total and 62% citizen VAP.  Another crucial change I made is sending the fajita strips into Austin instead of rural white areas.  They are all 82-83% Hispanic, so shouldn't count as packs, that are Hispanic enough so Austin white libs won't control the primaries.  I also increased the Hispanic percentage and Lloyd Doggett's seat so it should actually perform as a vra seat.  Overall I tried to get most Republican seats to around Trump+25.  My Waco based seat Trump+13, but that should be pretty safe given that the district does not include any suburbs.  It actually trended slightly red from 2008.  The remainder of the Republican seats range from Trump+20 to 30.  Also, suburban-rural combos should hold up better over the decade.  This map is 27R-1LR-11D.  

If I were the Texas Republicans, I'd make it 24R-1LR-14D, with the additional vote sinks in Austin, Dallas, and Houston.  If you do that, you can get the suburban Trump districts to Trump+30, and have more minority seats, which helps the map survive court challenges.

Is that even legal?

I don't think so, given that there really should be 4 majority-minority seats between Harris and Fort Bend counties. Given such a seat would come naturally and even exists in the current map, in the form of TX-22, it's easy to argue that minority votes will split and diluted too much in this map. Even putting that aside, this map is dead on arrival, since there is no consideration for incumbent residencies. Also taking the fajitas into Austin is probably a non starter and there's no good reason to do that. There are also some contiguity issues here that need to be fixed.

Also these "Spiral" maps with bacon-strip districts sprawling all over the place are posted online a lot but they never become a reality in any state.   There are other factors at play in map drawing than just partisanship.
Did you even read what I wrote?  I didn't draw this map to be realistic, I drew the maximum gerrymander to show it is possible.  It would be smart to add 3 additional vote sinks, in Austin, Houston, and DFW.
That isn稚 even the maximum gerrymander. The maximum GOP gerrymander would still be more Democratic than that map.
Do you know what maximum means?
Was that meant to be the most GOP that can be possibly drawn (legal or not), or is it meant to be the most GOP map that can be drawn legally?
Logged
I知 not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


« Reply #6 on: July 19, 2020, 08:10:14 PM »


https://davesredistricting.org/join/c8a0e5a0-0a49-4654-bc22-7976aebe8804
More realistic gerrymander.  Creates 3 new performing minority seats. 
Dem seats:
1 El Paso
3 fajitas
2 San Antonio
1 Austin
4 Houston
3 DFW
25 republican seats.  Did my best to maintain character of seats, incumbent residencies, and make the, very safe. 
TX-23 is as Hispanic than the current one btw. 
The real fajitas are still far more compact, and they narrowly survived court challenges.
Logged
I知 not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


« Reply #7 on: July 19, 2020, 08:39:25 PM »


https://davesredistricting.org/join/c8a0e5a0-0a49-4654-bc22-7976aebe8804
More realistic gerrymander.  Creates 3 new performing minority seats. 
Dem seats:
1 El Paso
3 fajitas
2 San Antonio
1 Austin
4 Houston
3 DFW
25 republican seats.  Did my best to maintain character of seats, incumbent residencies, and make the, very safe. 
TX-23 is as Hispanic than the current one btw. 
The real fajitas are still far more compact, and they narrowly survived court challenges.
The fajitas were only drawn because compact border districts are illegal lol.  Compact districts in that region would help the GOP.
The real fajitas are still more compact than that. They need to be slightly more compact.
Logged
I知 not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


« Reply #8 on: August 09, 2020, 12:02:49 PM »


https://davesredistricting.org/join/c8622acc-5237-4f4e-a50a-3fbd04efe2ed
This is maybe a more realistic GOP gerrymander.  23-2-14.  The 2 swing seats are Trump+8 (rio grande) and Trump+12 (Highland Park-prosper).  Incumbents protected.
1. Safe R, Tyler to Mesquite, Trump+33, Louie Gohmert
2. Safe R, northeastern Houston suburbs/exurbs, Trump+31, Dan Crenshaw
3. Safe R, Plano to Marshall, Trump+33, Van Taylor
4. Safe R, Texarkana to McKinney, Trump+34, open
5. Safe R, Garland to Longview, Trump+34, Lance Gooden
6. Safe R, Arlington and southern DFW exurbs, Trump+29, Ron Wright
7. Safe D, northern and western Houston, Clinton+43, Lizzie Fletcher (vulnerable to non-white primary challenger)
8. Safe R, The Woodlands to Jersey Village, Trump+34, Kevin Brady
9. Safe D, Fort Bend and SW Harris, Clinton+46, Al Green
10. Safe R, western Harris to Louisiana border, Trump+33, Michael McCaul?
11. Safe R, Midland to northern Bexar, Trump+31, August Pfluger
12. Safe R, Fort Worth to Weatherford, Trump+30, Kay Granger
13. Safe R, Amarillo to Wichita Falls, Trump+60, Ronny L. Jackson
14. Safe R, Galveston to Beaumont, Trump+24, Randy Weber
15. Safe D, McAllen to Corpus Christi, Clinton+29, Vicente Gonzalez
16. Safe D, El Paso, Clinton+33, Veronica Escobar
17. Safe R, Bryan to North Travis, Trump+22, Pete Sessions
18. Safe D, central to south Houston, Clinton+56, Sheila Jackson Lee
19. Safe R, Lubbock to western Travis, Trump+31, Jodey Arrington
20. Safe D, western San Antonio, Clinton+27, Joaquin Castro
21. Safe R, northern San Antonio suburbs/exurbs, Trump+28, Chip Roy
22. Safe R, Fort Bend to Gonzales County, Trump+30, Troy Nehls?
23. Likely R, El Paso to southern Bexar, Trump+8, open
24. Safe R, northern Tarrant to southern Denton, Trump+31, Beth Van Duyne?
25. Safe R, Abilene to Pflugerville, Trump+30, Roger Williams
26. Safe R, eastern Denton to Stevens County, Trump+29, Michael Burgess
27. Safe R, Corpus Christi to southern Houston exurbs, Trump+31, Michael Cloud,
28. Safe D, McAllen to eastern Bexar, Clinton+38, Henry Cuellar
29. Safe D, Houston to Pasadena, Clinton+51, Sylvia Garcia
30. Safe D, southern Dallas and Arlington, Clinton+53, Eddie Bernice Johnson
31. Safe R, Round Rock to Hood County, Trump+29, John Carter
32. Safe D, Downtown Dallas and northern suburbs, Clinton+39, Colin Allred
33. Safe D, Fort Worth to Grand Prairie, Clinton+49, Marc Veasey
34. Safe D, Brownsville to Corpus Christi, Clinton+27, Filemon Vela Jr.
35. Safe D, San Antonio to Austin, Clinton+43, open
36. Safe R, Jasper to Pearland, Trump+33, Brian Babin
37. Safe D, Austin, Clinton+53, Lloyd Doggett
38. Likely R, Highland Park to Prosper, Trump+12, open
39. Safe R, Hunters Creek Village to Livingston, Trump+30, open
But aren稚 Texas and Florida GOP run states that have no qualms about drawing out incumbent Republicans?
Logged
I知 not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


« Reply #9 on: August 09, 2020, 01:49:08 PM »


https://davesredistricting.org/join/c8622acc-5237-4f4e-a50a-3fbd04efe2ed
This is maybe a more realistic GOP gerrymander.  23-2-14.  The 2 swing seats are Trump+8 (rio grande) and Trump+12 (Highland Park-prosper).  Incumbents protected.
1. Safe R, Tyler to Mesquite, Trump+33, Louie Gohmert
2. Safe R, northeastern Houston suburbs/exurbs, Trump+31, Dan Crenshaw
3. Safe R, Plano to Marshall, Trump+33, Van Taylor
4. Safe R, Texarkana to McKinney, Trump+34, open
5. Safe R, Garland to Longview, Trump+34, Lance Gooden
6. Safe R, Arlington and southern DFW exurbs, Trump+29, Ron Wright
7. Safe D, northern and western Houston, Clinton+43, Lizzie Fletcher (vulnerable to non-white primary challenger)
8. Safe R, The Woodlands to Jersey Village, Trump+34, Kevin Brady
9. Safe D, Fort Bend and SW Harris, Clinton+46, Al Green
10. Safe R, western Harris to Louisiana border, Trump+33, Michael McCaul?
11. Safe R, Midland to northern Bexar, Trump+31, August Pfluger
12. Safe R, Fort Worth to Weatherford, Trump+30, Kay Granger
13. Safe R, Amarillo to Wichita Falls, Trump+60, Ronny L. Jackson
14. Safe R, Galveston to Beaumont, Trump+24, Randy Weber
15. Safe D, McAllen to Corpus Christi, Clinton+29, Vicente Gonzalez
16. Safe D, El Paso, Clinton+33, Veronica Escobar
17. Safe R, Bryan to North Travis, Trump+22, Pete Sessions
18. Safe D, central to south Houston, Clinton+56, Sheila Jackson Lee
19. Safe R, Lubbock to western Travis, Trump+31, Jodey Arrington
20. Safe D, western San Antonio, Clinton+27, Joaquin Castro
21. Safe R, northern San Antonio suburbs/exurbs, Trump+28, Chip Roy
22. Safe R, Fort Bend to Gonzales County, Trump+30, Troy Nehls?
23. Likely R, El Paso to southern Bexar, Trump+8, open
24. Safe R, northern Tarrant to southern Denton, Trump+31, Beth Van Duyne?
25. Safe R, Abilene to Pflugerville, Trump+30, Roger Williams
26. Safe R, eastern Denton to Stevens County, Trump+29, Michael Burgess
27. Safe R, Corpus Christi to southern Houston exurbs, Trump+31, Michael Cloud,
28. Safe D, McAllen to eastern Bexar, Clinton+38, Henry Cuellar
29. Safe D, Houston to Pasadena, Clinton+51, Sylvia Garcia
30. Safe D, southern Dallas and Arlington, Clinton+53, Eddie Bernice Johnson
31. Safe R, Round Rock to Hood County, Trump+29, John Carter
32. Safe D, Downtown Dallas and northern suburbs, Clinton+39, Colin Allred
33. Safe D, Fort Worth to Grand Prairie, Clinton+49, Marc Veasey
34. Safe D, Brownsville to Corpus Christi, Clinton+27, Filemon Vela Jr.
35. Safe D, San Antonio to Austin, Clinton+43, open
36. Safe R, Jasper to Pearland, Trump+33, Brian Babin
37. Safe D, Austin, Clinton+53, Lloyd Doggett
38. Likely R, Highland Park to Prosper, Trump+12, open
39. Safe R, Hunters Creek Village to Livingston, Trump+30, open
But aren稚 Texas and Florida GOP run states that have no qualms about drawing out incumbent Republicans?
I think they's prefer to preserve their incumbents, and this map proves it can be done with maximizing partisan performance.  This map likely ends up as 25-14, with one GOP seat with a risk of flipping,the north Dallas one.  But Trump+12 is decent.
Don't Florida Republicans frequently draw out incumbent Republicans to encourage primary challenges from the right?
Logged
I知 not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


« Reply #10 on: August 09, 2020, 02:07:46 PM »


https://davesredistricting.org/join/c8622acc-5237-4f4e-a50a-3fbd04efe2ed
This is maybe a more realistic GOP gerrymander.  23-2-14.  The 2 swing seats are Trump+8 (rio grande) and Trump+12 (Highland Park-prosper).  Incumbents protected.
1. Safe R, Tyler to Mesquite, Trump+33, Louie Gohmert
2. Safe R, northeastern Houston suburbs/exurbs, Trump+31, Dan Crenshaw
3. Safe R, Plano to Marshall, Trump+33, Van Taylor
4. Safe R, Texarkana to McKinney, Trump+34, open
5. Safe R, Garland to Longview, Trump+34, Lance Gooden
6. Safe R, Arlington and southern DFW exurbs, Trump+29, Ron Wright
7. Safe D, northern and western Houston, Clinton+43, Lizzie Fletcher (vulnerable to non-white primary challenger)
8. Safe R, The Woodlands to Jersey Village, Trump+34, Kevin Brady
9. Safe D, Fort Bend and SW Harris, Clinton+46, Al Green
10. Safe R, western Harris to Louisiana border, Trump+33, Michael McCaul?
11. Safe R, Midland to northern Bexar, Trump+31, August Pfluger
12. Safe R, Fort Worth to Weatherford, Trump+30, Kay Granger
13. Safe R, Amarillo to Wichita Falls, Trump+60, Ronny L. Jackson
14. Safe R, Galveston to Beaumont, Trump+24, Randy Weber
15. Safe D, McAllen to Corpus Christi, Clinton+29, Vicente Gonzalez
16. Safe D, El Paso, Clinton+33, Veronica Escobar
17. Safe R, Bryan to North Travis, Trump+22, Pete Sessions
18. Safe D, central to south Houston, Clinton+56, Sheila Jackson Lee
19. Safe R, Lubbock to western Travis, Trump+31, Jodey Arrington
20. Safe D, western San Antonio, Clinton+27, Joaquin Castro
21. Safe R, northern San Antonio suburbs/exurbs, Trump+28, Chip Roy
22. Safe R, Fort Bend to Gonzales County, Trump+30, Troy Nehls?
23. Likely R, El Paso to southern Bexar, Trump+8, open
24. Safe R, northern Tarrant to southern Denton, Trump+31, Beth Van Duyne?
25. Safe R, Abilene to Pflugerville, Trump+30, Roger Williams
26. Safe R, eastern Denton to Stevens County, Trump+29, Michael Burgess
27. Safe R, Corpus Christi to southern Houston exurbs, Trump+31, Michael Cloud,
28. Safe D, McAllen to eastern Bexar, Clinton+38, Henry Cuellar
29. Safe D, Houston to Pasadena, Clinton+51, Sylvia Garcia
30. Safe D, southern Dallas and Arlington, Clinton+53, Eddie Bernice Johnson
31. Safe R, Round Rock to Hood County, Trump+29, John Carter
32. Safe D, Downtown Dallas and northern suburbs, Clinton+39, Colin Allred
33. Safe D, Fort Worth to Grand Prairie, Clinton+49, Marc Veasey
34. Safe D, Brownsville to Corpus Christi, Clinton+27, Filemon Vela Jr.
35. Safe D, San Antonio to Austin, Clinton+43, open
36. Safe R, Jasper to Pearland, Trump+33, Brian Babin
37. Safe D, Austin, Clinton+53, Lloyd Doggett
38. Likely R, Highland Park to Prosper, Trump+12, open
39. Safe R, Hunters Creek Village to Livingston, Trump+30, open
But aren稚 Texas and Florida GOP run states that have no qualms about drawing out incumbent Republicans?
I think they's prefer to preserve their incumbents, and this map proves it can be done with maximizing partisan performance.  This map likely ends up as 25-14, with one GOP seat with a risk of flipping,the north Dallas one.  But Trump+12 is decent.
Don't Florida Republicans frequently draw out incumbent Republicans to encourage primary challenges from the right?
I'm not aware of that.  In TX, idk who they'd target.  My districts are already so red a primary challenge becomes more likely.  My map does kind of screw over McCaul tho, his district drastically changes and he'd be vulnerable to a primary challenge.  I suspect he'd prefer it to his currently district however, better to risk primary battle than certain general election defeat.  His current district is basically a tossup trending D now.  Also Van Taylor gets a very different district, but it's needed to keep it totally safe.  My map prioritized seat safety first, maximizing GOP seats second, and incumbents 3rd.  Usually I got all 3.
Cliff Stearns was drawn out in Florida. Was it specifically done to target him so that he would get primaried?
Logged
I知 not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


« Reply #11 on: August 10, 2020, 08:30:25 AM »

District data for my map:

District 1: Trump+61 (First West Texas vote sink)
District 2: Trump+45 (Second West Texas vote sink)
District 3: Trump+58 (Third West Texas vote sink)
District 4: Clinton+41 - 76% Hispanic CVAP (El Paso)
District 5: Clinton+21 - 78% Hispanic CVAP (Rio Grande district which becomes fourth fajita)
District 6: Clinton+18 - 75% Hispanic CVAP (First Hispanic fajita)
District 7: Clinton+17 - 75% Hispanic CVAP (Second Hispanic fajita)
District 8: Clinton+18 - 74% Hispanic CVAP (Third Hispanic fajita)
District 9: Clinton+12 - 61% Hispanic CVAP (New Hispanic-majority San Antonio seat)
District 10: Clinton+25 - 58% Hispanic CVAP (Current Hispanic-majority San Antonio seat)
District 11: Trump+18 (Ancestrally German Republican suburban San Antonio)
District 12: Clinton+21 (Newly Democratic suburban Austin)
District 13: Clinton+42 (Austin vote sink)
District 14: Trump+8 (Swingy Round Rock)
District 15: Trump+41 (Central Texas vote sink)
District 16: Trump+43 (Southeast Texas vote sink)
District 17: Clinton+4 - 21% Black / 19% Hispanic / 18% Asian CVAP (Left-zooming minority coalition Fort Bend)
District 18: Trump+20 (Galveston and friends)
District 19: Clinton+4 (Fast left-zooming West Houston White pack)
District 20: Clinton+60 - 45% Black CVAP (Latino-ifying Black South Houston seat)
District 21: Clinton+60 - 50% Black CVAP (Less Latino-ifying Black Central Houston seat)
District 22: Clinton+28 - 55% Hispanic CVAP (Current Hispanic-majority East Houston seat)
District 23: Clinton+18 - 42% Hispanic / 16% Black CVAP (New Hispanic-opportunity West Houston seat)
District 24: Trump+32 (Houston suburbs and Bryan/College Station vote sink)
District 25: Trump+44 (Houston suburbs and The Woodlands/Conroe vote sink)
District 26: Trump+30 (Houston suburbs and Beaumont/Port Arthur vote sink)
District 27: Trump+51 (First East Texas vote sink)
District 28: Trump+54 (Second East Texas vote sink)
District 29: Trump+51 (Third East Texas vote sink)
District 30: Trump+17 (First rump Tarrant and exurbs Republicanland)
District 31: Clinton+59 - 53% Black CVAP (Less Latino-ifying Black South Dallas seat)
District 32: Clinton+32 - 47% Hispanic / 16% Black CVAP (Ugly Hispanic-opportunity Metroplex seat)*
District 33: Clinton+22 - 25% Black / 25% Hispanic CVAP (Minority coalition North Dallas vote sink)
District 34: Trump+5 (Suburban Metroplex seat - left-zooming - the most interesting one)
District 35: Trump+23 (Second rump Tarrant and exurbs Republicanland)
District 36: Clinton+1 (Fast left-zooming Plano / North Metroplex)
District 37: Trump+24 (Denton County vote sink)
District 38: Trump+28 (Collin County vote sink)
District 39: Trump+49 (Third rump Tarrant and exurbs Republicanland)



*Maybe Marc Veasey would survive. Ideally the district should be represented by a Hispanic?
Veasey might survive. He痴 entrenched.
Logged
I知 not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


« Reply #12 on: August 10, 2020, 06:51:27 PM »

You gotta crack harder lol, Draw it further out NW and add another crack.

Wouldn't that make cracking Dallas/Fort Worth impossible? You run into VRA issues to the south and west and if you go any further east then Houston becomes a huge liability.
Yes, that would run into VRA issues.
Logged
I知 not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


« Reply #13 on: August 10, 2020, 10:40:42 PM »
« Edited: August 10, 2020, 10:43:58 PM by ERM64man »

Is a 28R-11D map possible? This means no gains from 2018, as well as three new Republican seats.
Logged
I知 not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


« Reply #14 on: April 07, 2021, 02:30:38 PM »

Does the TXGOP care about protecting Republican incumbents, or would they not hesitate to draw out incumbents in their own party?
Logged
I知 not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


« Reply #15 on: April 07, 2021, 05:05:48 PM »

Does the TXGOP care about protecting Republican incumbents, or would they not hesitate to draw out incumbents in their own party?

I'd say there aren't really any parties willing to draw out their own incumbents, unless said incumbent is just "the worst" or has given their blessing to do so (either to coincide with a retirement or to climb the political ladder). The TXGOP is no exception.
I know the NCGOP drew a 10R-3D map in 2010 instead of an 11R-2D one because 11-2 would draw out incumbent Republicans. I thought states like Texas and Florida don't give a rat's patootie about incumbent protection and would draw out incumbent GOP politicians in a heartbeat.
Logged
I知 not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


« Reply #16 on: April 07, 2021, 05:13:12 PM »

Does the TXGOP care about protecting Republican incumbents, or would they not hesitate to draw out incumbents in their own party?

I'd say there aren't really any parties willing to draw out their own incumbents, unless said incumbent is just "the worst" or has given their blessing to do so (either to coincide with a retirement or to climb the political ladder). The TXGOP is no exception.
I know the NCGOP drew a 10R-3D map in 2010 instead of an 11R-2D one because 11-2 would draw out incumbent Republicans. I thought states like Texas and Florida don't give a rat's patootie about incumbent protection and would draw out incumbent GOP politicians in a heartbeat.

There is absolutely no evidence of this being a prevailing concept in either state party. And even if the leadership were to be totally on board with screwing over certain Republicans, as Punxsutawney Phil notes, members of congress have their own network of allies and acquaintances who'd keep them safe.
Cliff Stearns in Florida got drawn out and lost to a primary challenger.
Logged
I知 not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


« Reply #17 on: April 08, 2021, 02:18:54 PM »

Is the TXGOP really going to eliminate a Hispanic seat that already exists? That would be challenged.
Logged
I知 not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


« Reply #18 on: April 10, 2021, 03:06:02 PM »

Will TX-07 and TX-32 be conceded or baconmandered? Will Democrats get at least one new seat?
Logged
I知 not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


« Reply #19 on: April 10, 2021, 03:57:23 PM »

Will TX-07 and TX-32 be conceded or baconmandered? Will Democrats get at least one new seat?

It's not either/or.  In Houston, for instance, you can pack the 3 safe D districts, make all other seats safe R, and get TX-07 to being Trump+5 or so even while keeping it in Harris County. 
But isn稚 it very easy to draw another compact VRA district in Houston with over 50% CVAP of a specific group? Will the TXGOP concede at least one seat?
Logged
I知 not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


« Reply #20 on: April 10, 2021, 05:53:38 PM »

Will TX-07 and TX-32 be conceded or baconmandered? Will Democrats get at least one new seat?

Will you have the numeral correct, it's one, but the integer is wrong, it's minus rather than plus. The map "gives" the Dems 12 seats, rather than their current 13, 3 each in the Metroplex, Houston, and the RGV, two in San Antonio (they are VRA protected so need to be there), and one Dem vote sink in Austin. The map is the reciprocal of what will happen in NYS, where the Pubs will be losing 4 seats, while gaining 4 in Texas. The parties of the two states should sign a non aggression pact, but since they will not, because of parochialism, it's war.

My TX-13 is particularly glorious. Don't you agree?



Is it easy to create at least one other compact district that is over 50% HCVAP? What would be the best legal gerrymander (not a VRA violation) for the GOP?
Logged
I知 not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


« Reply #21 on: April 10, 2021, 06:20:16 PM »

Will the TXGOP draw a legal map or a VRA violation?
Logged
I知 not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


« Reply #22 on: April 10, 2021, 06:57:05 PM »

What is the minimum amount of seats that is VRA compliant?
Logged
I知 not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


« Reply #23 on: April 10, 2021, 07:08:52 PM »

What is the minimum amount of seats that is VRA compliant?

There is no minimum number of seats based on population other than to set a maximum. The VRA requires the number of seats that equals the number of compact CD's that can be drawn that are at least 50% HCVAP, up to the theoretical maximum. The actual seats drawn can have lower HCVAP percentages provided they are performing Hispanic seats, which involves who votes in Dem primaries in general. The map I drew has 10 50%+ HCVAP seats (which is the maximum I think that can be drawn "compactly" and thus trigger the Gingles requirements). The theoretical maximum might be say 13 seats, if Hispanics are a third of Texas's population.

What is the possible maximum that can be drawn with 50% HCVAP.
Logged
I知 not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


« Reply #24 on: April 10, 2021, 08:35:49 PM »

What is the minimum amount of seats that is VRA compliant?

There is no minimum number of seats based on population other than to set a maximum. The VRA requires the number of seats that equals the number of compact CD's that can be drawn that are at least 50% HCVAP, up to the theoretical maximum. The actual seats drawn can have lower HCVAP percentages provided they are performing Hispanic seats, which involves who votes in Dem primaries in general. The map I drew has 10 50%+ HCVAP seats (which is the maximum I think that can be drawn "compactly" and thus trigger the Gingles requirements). The theoretical maximum might be say 13 seats, if Hispanics are a third of Texas's population.

What is the possible maximum that can be drawn with 50% HCVAP.


10 I think in all probability, with my TX-38 a struggle to get there. That assumes you don't have wild Fajita strip action, that splits up my TX-07 zipping up to Austin, which may get one up to another 50% HCVAP CD (unlikely, but maybe possible). That would not be a "compact" CD, triggering the Gingles mandate.
What is the most GOP map possible without creating too few majority-minority districts?
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.085 seconds with 13 queries.