2020 Texas Redistricting thread

[Oryxslayer]

I don't think this fajita thing is where the action is  myself. The Pubs can snatch that seat on the Gulf (TX-34), without VRA risk, and presumably will. However, they need to give the Dems another Hispanic seat in Bexar. So it's all sound and fury signifying nothing to me, unless the Pubs do something to test the limits of the VRA. Whether the Dems get 12 or 13 seats depends on whether the Pubs are willing to go ugly (very ugly but legal), to snatch TX-07 away from the Dems in Houston. And that has nothing to do with fajita strips. I guess we will know soon what is in the heads of the TX Pubs.

I would say this map suggests they are going after TX-07 on the congressional map while leaving the same number of Hispanic Dem seats as last decade.  

It is definitely a plausible scenario, them going after TX-07. They'll almost certainly have to use TX-09 to take in Dem areas to undercut Lizzie Fletcher.

Right now I'm thinking Fletcher's seat still exists, but she is drawn out as part of the semi-unintentional "no white dem electeds." A case of the white Libs going in one of the AA seats, the white Pubs going in a R seats, and then the reconfigured seat is built out of Fort Bend and Alief and is very diverse. Helps fortify 22 and whatever is goes on there.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't think this fajita thing is where the action is  myself. The Pubs can snatch that seat on the Gulf (TX-34), without VRA risk, and presumably will. However, they need to give the Dems another Hispanic seat in Bexar. So it's all sound and fury signifying nothing to me, unless the Pubs do something to test the limits of the VRA. Whether the Dems get 12 or 13 seats depends on whether the Pubs are willing to go ugly (very ugly but legal), to snatch TX-07 away from the Dems in Houston. And that has nothing to do with fajita strips. I guess we will know soon what is in the heads of the TX Pubs.

I would say this map suggests they are going after TX-07 on the congressional map while leaving the same number of Hispanic Dem seats as last decade. 

It is definitely a plausible scenario, them going after TX-07. They'll almost certainly have to use TX-09 to take in Dem areas to undercut Lizzie Fletcher.

Right now I'm thinking Fletcher's seat still exists, but she is drawn out as part of the semi-unintentional "no white dem electeds." A case of the white Libs going in one of the AA seats, the white Pubs going in a R seats, and then the reconfigured seat is built out of Fort Bend and Alief and is very diverse.

I agree Fletcher still exists most likely. My "likely scenario" map has TX-07 being turned into a majority-minority CD.
But I do think Rs could still plausibly try to target her district for a flip, and uber-pack the 18th, 9th, and 29th. It would be a dumb move probably, but it could still happen.

[Torie]

I don't think this fajita thing is where the action is  myself. The Pubs can snatch that seat on the Gulf (TX-34), without VRA risk, and presumably will. However, they need to give the Dems another Hispanic seat in Bexar. So it's all sound and fury signifying nothing to me, unless the Pubs do something to test the limits of the VRA. Whether the Dems get 12 or 13 seats depends on whether the Pubs are willing to go ugly (very ugly but legal), to snatch TX-07 away from the Dems in Houston. And that has nothing to do with fajita strips. I guess we will know soon what is in the heads of the TX Pubs.

I would say this map suggests they are going after TX-07 on the congressional map while leaving the same number of Hispanic Dem seats as last decade.  

It is definitely a plausible scenario, them going after TX-07. They'll almost certainly have to use TX-09 to take in Dem areas to undercut Lizzie Fletcher.

Right now I'm thinking Fletcher's seat still exists, but she is drawn out as part of the semi-unintentional "no white dem electeds." A case of the white Libs going in one of the AA seats, the white Pubs going in a R seats, and then the reconfigured seat is built out of Fort Bend and Alief and is very diverse.

I agree Fletcher still exists most likely. My "likely scenario" map has TX-07 being turned into a majority-minority CD.
But I do think Rs could still plausibly try to target her district for a flip, and uber-pack the 18th, 9th, and 29th. It would be a dumb move probably, but it could still happen.

My map is butt ugly along the Ft Bend/Harris border, but I fail to see what is "dumb" about it. The Pubs get a strong lean R seat out of TX-07 (Trump 2020 by 7.5%), that should hold for awhile (maybe longer if they continue to make gains with Hispanics), and the rest of the Pub seats in the area were all carried by Trump 2020 by 18 to 21 points. There seems to be no political downside for the Pubs to just go for it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't think this fajita thing is where the action is  myself. The Pubs can snatch that seat on the Gulf (TX-34), without VRA risk, and presumably will. However, they need to give the Dems another Hispanic seat in Bexar. So it's all sound and fury signifying nothing to me, unless the Pubs do something to test the limits of the VRA. Whether the Dems get 12 or 13 seats depends on whether the Pubs are willing to go ugly (very ugly but legal), to snatch TX-07 away from the Dems in Houston. And that has nothing to do with fajita strips. I guess we will know soon what is in the heads of the TX Pubs.

I would say this map suggests they are going after TX-07 on the congressional map while leaving the same number of Hispanic Dem seats as last decade. 

It is definitely a plausible scenario, them going after TX-07. They'll almost certainly have to use TX-09 to take in Dem areas to undercut Lizzie Fletcher.

Right now I'm thinking Fletcher's seat still exists, but she is drawn out as part of the semi-unintentional "no white dem electeds." A case of the white Libs going in one of the AA seats, the white Pubs going in a R seats, and then the reconfigured seat is built out of Fort Bend and Alief and is very diverse.

I agree Fletcher still exists most likely. My "likely scenario" map has TX-07 being turned into a majority-minority CD.
But I do think Rs could still plausibly try to target her district for a flip, and uber-pack the 18th, 9th, and 29th. It would be a dumb move probably, but it could still happen.

My map is butt ugly along the Ft Bend/Harris border, but I fail to see what is "dumb" about it. The Pubs get a strong lean R seat out of TX-07 that should hold for awhile (maybe longer if they continue to make gains with Hispanics), and the rest of the Pub seats in the area were all carried by Trump 2020 by at least 18 points. There seems to be no political downside for the Pubs to just go for it.

If your map works, it does so because it represents almost a platonic ideal unspoiled by things like incumbent concerns.
I feel that in practice TX Rs will not be able to make it work effectively and/or will be driven by factors not purely decided by partisan gain.
Of course I wouldn't rule out them passing a map along the lines you made because it is still quite uncertain and we don't know what map they will propose.

[Torie]

I don't think this fajita thing is where the action is  myself. The Pubs can snatch that seat on the Gulf (TX-34), without VRA risk, and presumably will. However, they need to give the Dems another Hispanic seat in Bexar. So it's all sound and fury signifying nothing to me, unless the Pubs do something to test the limits of the VRA. Whether the Dems get 12 or 13 seats depends on whether the Pubs are willing to go ugly (very ugly but legal), to snatch TX-07 away from the Dems in Houston. And that has nothing to do with fajita strips. I guess we will know soon what is in the heads of the TX Pubs.

I would say this map suggests they are going after TX-07 on the congressional map while leaving the same number of Hispanic Dem seats as last decade. 

It is definitely a plausible scenario, them going after TX-07. They'll almost certainly have to use TX-09 to take in Dem areas to undercut Lizzie Fletcher.

Right now I'm thinking Fletcher's seat still exists, but she is drawn out as part of the semi-unintentional "no white dem electeds." A case of the white Libs going in one of the AA seats, the white Pubs going in a R seats, and then the reconfigured seat is built out of Fort Bend and Alief and is very diverse.

I agree Fletcher still exists most likely. My "likely scenario" map has TX-07 being turned into a majority-minority CD.
But I do think Rs could still plausibly try to target her district for a flip, and uber-pack the 18th, 9th, and 29th. It would be a dumb move probably, but it could still happen.

My map is butt ugly along the Ft Bend/Harris border, but I fail to see what is "dumb" about it. The Pubs get a strong lean R seat out of TX-07 that should hold for awhile (maybe longer if they continue to make gains with Hispanics), and the rest of the Pub seats in the area were all carried by Trump 2020 by at least 18 points. There seems to be no political downside for the Pubs to just go for it.

If your map works, it does so because it represents almost a platonic ideal unspoiled by things like incumbent concerns.
I feel that in practice TX Rs will not be able to make it work effectively and/or will be driven by factors not purely decided by partisan gain.
Of course I wouldn't rule out them passing a map along the lines you made because it is still quite uncertain and we don't know what map they will propose.

I actually worried a lot about Pub incumbent concerns and put a lot of thought into that, including where the Pub incumbents live, and district coherency. Whether I did a reasonable job at that is another matter, but I tried. I spent more time on TX than any other state, by far. I was fascinated by the interplay of the VRA, TX trends, incumbent care and feeding, and district coherence. I considered it a worthy challenge for me. I also tried where it did not unduly degrade the efficacy of the Pubmander, to minimize county and municipal chops.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't think this fajita thing is where the action is  myself. The Pubs can snatch that seat on the Gulf (TX-34), without VRA risk, and presumably will. However, they need to give the Dems another Hispanic seat in Bexar. So it's all sound and fury signifying nothing to me, unless the Pubs do something to test the limits of the VRA. Whether the Dems get 12 or 13 seats depends on whether the Pubs are willing to go ugly (very ugly but legal), to snatch TX-07 away from the Dems in Houston. And that has nothing to do with fajita strips. I guess we will know soon what is in the heads of the TX Pubs.

I would say this map suggests they are going after TX-07 on the congressional map while leaving the same number of Hispanic Dem seats as last decade.  

It is definitely a plausible scenario, them going after TX-07. They'll almost certainly have to use TX-09 to take in Dem areas to undercut Lizzie Fletcher.

Right now I'm thinking Fletcher's seat still exists, but she is drawn out as part of the semi-unintentional "no white dem electeds." A case of the white Libs going in one of the AA seats, the white Pubs going in a R seats, and then the reconfigured seat is built out of Fort Bend and Alief and is very diverse.

I agree Fletcher still exists most likely. My "likely scenario" map has TX-07 being turned into a majority-minority CD.
But I do think Rs could still plausibly try to target her district for a flip, and uber-pack the 18th, 9th, and 29th. It would be a dumb move probably, but it could still happen.

My map is butt ugly along the Ft Bend/Harris border, but I fail to see what is "dumb" about it. The Pubs get a strong lean R seat out of TX-07 that should hold for awhile (maybe longer if they continue to make gains with Hispanics), and the rest of the Pub seats in the area were all carried by Trump 2020 by at least 18 points. There seems to be no political downside for the Pubs to just go for it.

If your map works, it does so because it represents almost a platonic ideal unspoiled by things like incumbent concerns.
I feel that in practice TX Rs will not be able to make it work effectively and/or will be driven by factors not purely decided by partisan gain.
Of course I wouldn't rule out them passing a map along the lines you made because it is still quite uncertain and we don't know what map they will propose.

I actually worried a lot about Pub incumbent concerns and put a lot of thought into that, including where the Pub incumbents live, and district coherency. Whether I did a reasonable job at that is another matter, but I tried. I spent more time on TX than any other state, by far. I was fascinated by the interplay of the VRA, TX trends, incumbent care and feeding, and district coherence. I considered it a worthy challenge for me. I also tried where it did not unduly degrade the efficacy of the Pubmander, to minimize county and municipal chops.

I guess we shall see which of us gets closer to what the map ultimately looks like. I don't doubt you've put in a lot of hard work and effort into your maps and I know you reciprocate that.
Thanks for helping refine my map, btw.

[Хahar 🤔]

Wow, it's insane how large Texas Senate seats are. Each represents nearly a Million people!

Are there plans to expand it?

It's a safe bet that there are never plans to expand any legislature.

[Oryxslayer]

Board of Education district proposal. Beto won a majority of seats under the current plan, so they needed to go a bit wild.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Board of Education district proposal. Beto won a majority of seats under the current plan, so they needed to go a bit wild.

I take it 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 13 are the Dem seats?

[ProgressiveModerate]

From what I’m seeing seems like the GOP is willing to do pretty intense gerrymanders but are still being cautious of the VRA; maybe they want to avoid the risk of the whole map being redrawn?

[Oryxslayer]

Partisan leans



Old map for comparison.

[Skill and Chance]

From what I’m seeing seems like the GOP is willing to do pretty intense gerrymanders but are still being cautious of the VRA; maybe they want to avoid the risk of the whole map being redrawn?

Yep.  This continues the trend of going to town on Houston and North Dallas while treading carefully elsewhere.

Do we think that district 10 is rural enough to hold for the decade?   

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

From what I’m seeing seems like the GOP is willing to do pretty intense gerrymanders but are still being cautious of the VRA; maybe they want to avoid the risk of the whole map being redrawn?

Yep.  This continues the trend of going to town on Houston and North Dallas while treading carefully elsewhere.

Do we think that district 10 is rural enough to hold for the decade?   

10 probably can last the entire decade.
If I had to guess, 12 is likely the most marginal come 2030, but it's hard to tell exactly.

[Skill and Chance]

From what I’m seeing seems like the GOP is willing to do pretty intense gerrymanders but are still being cautious of the VRA; maybe they want to avoid the risk of the whole map being redrawn?

Yep.  This continues the trend of going to town on Houston and North Dallas while treading carefully elsewhere.

Do we think that district 10 is rural enough to hold for the decade?   

10 probably can last the entire decade.
If I had to guess, 12 is likely the most marginal come 2030, but it's hard to tell exactly.

Hmmm... I would think 6 would flip first if the state moves left.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

From what I’m seeing seems like the GOP is willing to do pretty intense gerrymanders but are still being cautious of the VRA; maybe they want to avoid the risk of the whole map being redrawn?

Yep.  This continues the trend of going to town on Houston and North Dallas while treading carefully elsewhere.

Do we think that district 10 is rural enough to hold for the decade?  

10 probably can last the entire decade.
If I had to guess, 12 is likely the most marginal come 2030, but it's hard to tell exactly.

Hmmm... I would think 6 would flip first if the state moves left.

It will come down to trends in Houston vs DFW metro and the relative baselines in 6 vs 12.
DFW metro does seem to be trending D faster than any other part of the state, and that is an argument in 12's favor.
What is the Biden % in those two seats?

[Brittain33]

I just want to note it's taken 18 years for Texas Republicans to go from attaching 50/50 rural areas to hyper Republican suburbs to gain power (DeLaymander) to attaching 50/50 suburbs to rural areas, now hyper Republican, to try to keep from losing power.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I just want to note it's taken 18 years for Texas Republicans to go from attaching 50/50 rural areas to hyper Republican suburbs to gain power (DeLaymander) to attaching 50/50 suburbs to rural areas, now hyper Republican, to try to keep from losing power.

What goes around comes around.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Made this map without looking much at partisan data. This was the result.
Effort was made to keep counties whole and districts compact.

In Harris County I created a new Latino-opportunity CD. 29 now moves south to take ina reas all the way to the Galveston County border, while remaining likely Latino-controlled (Latino VAP in the high 50s). 2 is converted into a Latino seat that is 55% Latino VAP and 58% Latino in overall population. Meanwhile, 18 is redrawn to remain Black-controlled, taking in parts of Fort Bend and shifting south because of 2 having new borders. 7 is designed to be a "white sink" but this was infeasible and it really ends up as a coalition CD likely to elect an Anglo Democrat. 9 is probably Black-controlled still but has a major Latino plurality in the neighborhood of the 40s. All these CDs are basically safe Dem in Anno Domini 2021. 25 is R-leaning, and 36 takes in a fair bit of northeastern Harris County, including Kingwood.

In Metro DFW, 6 districts are nested within Dallas and Tarrant, including a district drawn to elect a Black Democrat (30) and an Latino Democrat (33). 6 was redrawn to have as many Latinos and Blacks as possible while continuing to be clean. 32 is a left-overs CD that voted Biden by 12. Meanwhile 24 moves west and under these lines votes Trump by 12. And 12 becomes more marginal, while remaining firmly GOP-leaning. Collin County was split between three districts, with a compact district (3) taking in the southwestern quadrant. 4 loses a lot of area in the western half of Collin County, which in turn is taken by the new district, 38. 38 takes in leftovers from Collin and Denton and a bunch of exurban counties. Together, 3, 4, and 5 surround the metroplex's urban counties.

The fajitas were tweaked with the help of partisan data. Nonetheless, TX-15 voted for Biden by only 228 votes. If this district starts to cease being performing then it would have to be tweaked. Two performing Latino seats are nested within Bexar. 10 continues to run from Harris to Travis. 37, a new district, takes in most of Travis County, and 31 now takes in a small slice of Travis.

As this map was drawn largely without regard for partisan data and sought to create districts within big counties, it was pretty structurally Dem-favoring, and Biden won 21 of 38 seats. The median district voted for him by 2 points, which produces an even larger Dem geographic bias than in normal elections and evidently reflects Biden's improvement in many suburban areas. I would thus categorize it as a fair-non-partisan map, not a fair-proportional map. The latter would probably take steps that favor Rs in some areas, such as removing the Travis portion of 31 and replacing it with blood red rurals.

Here's the details.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I just want to note it's taken 18 years for Texas Republicans to go from attaching 50/50 rural areas to hyper Republican suburbs to gain power (DeLaymander) to attaching 50/50 suburbs to rural areas, now hyper Republican, to try to keep from losing power.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=180x4150

Rural areas of Texas vote more Democratic than you think.
Several of the target of re-redictricting were Democrats primarily in rural areas. What re-redistricting did was tie urban areas and rural areas with suburban majorities to decrease the influence of these two traditionally Democratic strongholds (in Congress anyway). The rural folks might vote Republican locally, but they tend to vote for Democrats in Congress (of the Texas variety, but still better than a Tom DeLay clone).

Yep, East Texas got screwed
We're certainly not liberal (and we're trending more repub), but we are still a Dem stronghold. Delay really put the screws to our area in his warped idea of re-re-districting. And urban Houston and Austin didn't fare much better.

The Suburbanites are now in charge, thank you very much. In my area that means the voters of The Woodlands, Kingwood, Humble and Conroe get to call the shots. And if you've seen the majority of these Stepford Clones, you know just how bad the situation really is! Arrrrrrrrrrrgh!*

this is exactly why
we need to shake trees to get voters to the polls, and harass the kerry campaign to get the candidates' butts down here a couple more times. i'm tired of the D/FW & other metro areas having a strangle-hold on the rest of the state. besides, we all know from what we hear/see in the streets that bush is in big trouble here in texas, but do we see that in the polls? nope, which is why neither party is spending much time or money here in texas.

[Non Swing Voter]

Made this map without looking much at partisan data. This was the result.
Effort was made to keep counties whole and districts compact.

In Harris County I created a new Latino-opportunity CD. 29 now moves south to take ina reas all the way to the Galveston County border, while remaining likely Latino-controlled (Latino VAP in the high 50s). 2 is converted into a Latino seat that is 55% Latino VAP and 58% Latino in overall population. Meanwhile, 18 is redrawn to remain Black-controlled, taking in parts of Fort Bend and shifting south because of 2 having new borders. 7 is designed to be a "white sink" but this was infeasible and it really ends up as a coalition CD likely to elect an Anglo Democrat. 9 is probably Black-controlled still but has a major Latino plurality in the neighborhood of the 40s. All these CDs are basically safe Dem in Anno Domini 2021. 25 is R-leaning, and 36 takes in a fair bit of northeastern Harris County, including Kingwood.

In Metro DFW, 6 districts are nested within Dallas and Tarrant, including a district drawn to elect a Black Democrat (30) and an Latino Democrat (33). 6 was redrawn to have as many Latinos and Blacks as possible while continuing to be clean. 32 is a left-overs CD that voted Biden by 12. Meanwhile 24 moves west and under these lines votes Trump by 12. And 12 becomes more marginal, while remaining firmly GOP-leaning. Collin County was split between three districts, with a compact district (3) taking in the southwestern quadrant. 4 loses a lot of area in the western half of Collin County, which in turn is taken by the new district, 38. 38 takes in leftovers from Collin and Denton and a bunch of exurban counties. Together, 3, 4, and 5 surround the metroplex's urban counties.

The fajitas were tweaked with the help of partisan data. Nonetheless, TX-15 voted for Biden by only 228 votes. If this district starts to cease being performing then it would have to be tweaked. Two performing Latino seats are nested within Bexar. 10 continues to run from Harris to Travis. 37, a new district, takes in most of Travis County, and 31 now takes in a small slice of Travis.

As this map was drawn largely without regard for partisan data and sought to create districts within big counties, it was pretty structurally Dem-favoring, and Biden won 21 of 38 seats. The median district voted for him by 2 points, which produces an even larger Dem geographic bias than in normal elections and evidently reflects Biden's improvement in many suburban areas. I would thus categorize it as a fair-non-partisan map, not a fair-proportional map. The latter would probably take steps that favor Rs in some areas, such as removing the Travis portion of 31 and replacing it with blood red rurals.

Here's the details.

Map looks clean AF.  Amazing that it's that Dem skewed.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

It appears that it is more likely that Fletcher (and maybe even Allred?) are going to get screwed in redistricting as they really want Wesley Hunt to run for Congress. I wouldn't be surprised to see if the GOP proposes a 27 R - 11 D map in the coming weeks.

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/09/23/texas-congress-redistricting-fletcher/

[Roll Roons]

It appears that it is more likely that Fletcher (and maybe even Allred?) are going to get screwed in redistricting as they really want Wesley Hunt to run for Congress. I wouldn't be surprised to see if the GOP proposes a 27 R - 11 D map in the coming weeks.

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/09/23/texas-congress-redistricting-fletcher/

If the Texas GOP really wants to draw one of them out, Fletcher's probably the better option. The trends in the Houston area aren't nearly as ugly as they are in Dallas.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It appears that it is more likely that Fletcher (and maybe even Allred?) are going to get screwed in redistricting as they really want Wesley Hunt to run for Congress. I wouldn't be surprised to see if the GOP proposes a 27 R - 11 D map in the coming weeks.

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/09/23/texas-congress-redistricting-fletcher/

We shall see how TX-07 is dealt with by the GOP.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It appears that it is more likely that Fletcher (and maybe even Allred?) are going to get screwed in redistricting as they really want Wesley Hunt to run for Congress. I wouldn't be surprised to see if the GOP proposes a 27 R - 11 D map in the coming weeks.

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/09/23/texas-congress-redistricting-fletcher/

I really don't see how they can draw out Allred without doing a Nebraska-esk map or literally bacon-stripping the entire penninsula, probably making something illegal.

Fletcher is maybe possible, but it's hard to draw her out without violating VRA.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It appears that it is more likely that Fletcher (and maybe even Allred?) are going to get screwed in redistricting as they really want Wesley Hunt to run for Congress. I wouldn't be surprised to see if the GOP proposes a 27 R - 11 D map in the coming weeks.

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/09/23/texas-congress-redistricting-fletcher/

If the Texas GOP really want to draw one of them out, Fletcher's probably the better option. The trends in the Houston area aren't nearly as ugly as they are in Dallas.

I feel certain that Allred is the worse one for Rs to draw out. Houston is still fairly dependent on fossil fuel industries, unlike the Metroplex.
There's reason for the fact that trends in Houston aren't as bad for Rs as in Dallas.