2020 Texas Redistricting thread

[Devils30]

If Dems ever get a Texas trifecta in next couple decades they could draw a map that enables the party to keep house in an R+2 type year when you factor in NY IL CA.

[Real Texan Politics]

One consequence of this map: Jessica Cisneros' chances of unseating Cuellar are alive and well (and stronger than on the old map, perhaps). Really thought they were gonna remove TX-28 from metro San Antonio to shore up Cuellar in the primary.

Probably a good republican strategy to get Cuellar primaried by a progressive, therefore a republican wins in the general.

Their POV, not necessarily mine.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

(the insets are all of the same scale, fyi)
https://davesredistricting.org/join/3bf84bc6-2dee-47d3-898c-e7d3058ea340
Made this Texas State House map, with emphasis on compactness, staying within municipal lines, and drawing minority seats when possible, while also avoiding packing (this is visible in areas such as Central Houston). I did not let partisanship be a major factor in how I drew the districts.
By my reckoning, Biden won 75 seats. DRA even rates this map as "anti-majoritarian".

[Non Swing Voter]

So basically TX redistricting looks like a wash, no net pickups for either party = the most likely outcome in 2022?

If this map stands, my money is on TX-15 flipping in 2022, being swingy in 2024, and then marching right, but the RGV trends are so weird that honestly who knows. All the D seats besides that are fairly safe though

so at best, the GOP nets 1 seat?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here's my calculations

[Skill and Chance]

Here's my calculations

So 24 and 3 trade places with 15 and 28 by the end of the decade?  After that, everything is likely safe unless Travis gets up over 80% Dem.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Do you know who's favoured in the Austin Thunderdome for the new ultra blue district ?

[Skill and Chance]

Do you know who's favoured in the Austin Thunderdome for the new ultra blue district ?

Wouldn't it be Doggett's to lose?  That would open up his current seat, likely for a San Antonio Hispanic Dem. 

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Do you know who's favoured in the Austin Thunderdome for the new ultra blue district ?

Wouldn't it be Doggett's to lose?  That would open up his current seat, likely for a San Antonio Hispanic Dem. 

Doggett seems too moderate for such a district.

[Oryxslayer]

Do you know who's favoured in the Austin Thunderdome for the new ultra blue district ?

Wouldn't it be Doggett's to lose?  That would open up his current seat, likely for a San Antonio Hispanic Dem. 

It's his choice. Doggett's a White Austin Dem, so he would better serve TX37 here, but TX35 has more of his present constituents. If he choses TX37 then there probably still will be a primary challenger - Austin is just the place that will keep generating those - but it will be TX35 which will see a fierce primary competition with a geographically distinct set of potential candidates. It's more of an Austin seat under these lines - but a diverse one, with the San Antonio bit losing voters to the other seats in Bexar. If he stays in TX35 then TX37 becomes the arena, one where I think Wendy Davis may be favored after she rebuilt her brand and name rec in 2020.

[Del Tachi]

Do you know who's favoured in the Austin Thunderdome for the new ultra blue district ?

Wendy Davis?  She ran in neighboring TX-21 against Chip Roy in 2020.  Only lost by 7 points.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Do you know who's favoured in the Austin Thunderdome for the new ultra blue district ?

Wendy Davis?  She ran in neighboring TX-21 against Chip Roy in 2020.  Only lost by 7 points.

Susan Eckhardt is the current state senator for most of Austin, has previously served as Travis county Judge and Daughter of a congressman so she’s definitely a contender

Celia Israel is another interesting choice as she’s a current state representative and has been for some time. She would be the first elected (out) LGBT federal politician from the southeast and has connections to several progressive organizations.

[Roll Roons]

My guess is Doggett stays in TX-35 and TX-37 becomes a very bloody free-for-all. The top finisher probably gets less than 25% of the vote in the first round. I bet there'll be at least one serious JD/DSA-aligned contender.

[Skill and Chance]

My guess is Doggett stays in TX-35 and TX-37 becomes a very bloody free-for-all. The top finisher probably gets less than 25% of the vote in the first round. I bet there'll be at least one serious JD/DSA-aligned contender.

I kind of think it's Sarah Eckhardt's to loose if Doggett stays put. 

[_.]

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1442507576512552968
Direct DRA link

Thanks for the link man

There are some very interesting things in this map, such as them going all-in on the RGV.
Looks like Texas Republicans have decided (in terms of trends) that they're gonna go all or nothing.

Also, the Austin-San Antonio link is very interesting, no doubt used to prevent a third D seat from popping up in the Austin metro. Another smart move is that they connected one of the soft R seats surrounding the link with the RGV. Once again, all or nothing it looks like.

Houston, while being a gerrymander looks OK, trend-resistant, and isn't all that bad.

DFW is surprising. One of the most D-Trending areas of the country, a metropolis larger and bluer than Houston, and they think they can manage three D seats only? Four seats would've been safer. When considering the tremendous population growth in the counties of Denton, Collin, Tarrant, and Rockwall, the population loss in the uber-Republican rural areas, and the rate at which the suburbs are diversifying and trending away from the Republicans, it seems a realistic possibility that we witness this backfire spectacularly by the end of the decade. TX-3, TX-12, TX-24, and TX-26 all look particularly vulnerable.

Here are the comparisons with previous years for the four districts in question:

TX-3 (Collin County)

2014 Governor: R+41.0 (29.5% D, 70.5% R)
2016 Presidential: R+26.7 (33.6% D, 60.3% R)
2018 Senate: R+16.0 (41.8% D, 57.8% R)
2020 Presidential: R+15.0 (41.6% D, 6.6% R)

TX-12 (West Tarrant County + Parker County)

2014 Governor: R+28.6 (35.7% D, 64.3% R)
2016 Presidential: R+25.2 (34.8% D, 60.0% R)
2018 Senate: R+16.1 (41.5% D, 57.6% R)
2020 Presidential: R+17.9 (40.2% D, 58.1% R)

TX-24 (North Tarrant County + North Dallas County)

2014 Governor: R+38.2 (30.9% D, 69.1% R)
2016 Presidential: R+23.9 (35.4% D, 59.3% R)
2018 Senate: R+14.5 (42.3% D, 56.8% R)
2020 Presidential: R+12.2 (43.1% D, 55.3% R)

TX-26 (Denton County)

2014 Governor: R+43.8 (28.1% D, 71.9% R)
2016 Presidential: R+30.8 (32.0% D, 62.8% R)
2018 Senate: R+20.2 (39.5% D, 59.7% R)
2020 Presidential: R+18.7 (39.9% D, 58.6% R)

Perhaps this quasi-dummymander is worth it as the trends may not come into play for many more years, but when they do, they'll hit hard as much of it is demographic change. It's just a matter of when.


Finally, the lack of population deviation in the map is admirable.

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1442507576512552968
Direct DRA link

Thanks for the link man

There are some very interesting things in this map, such as them going all-in on the RGV.
Looks like Texas Republicans have decided (in terms of trends) that they're gonna go all or nothing.

Also, the Austin-San Antonio link is very interesting, no doubt used to prevent a third D seat from popping up in the Austin metro. Another smart move is that they connected one of the soft R seats surrounding the link with the RGV. Once again, all or nothing it looks like.

Houston, while being a gerrymander looks OK, trend-resistant, and isn't all that bad.

DFW is surprising. One of the most D-Trending areas of the country, a metropolis larger and bluer than Houston, and they think they can manage three D seats only? Four seats would've been safer. When considering the tremendous population growth in the counties of Denton, Collin, Tarrant, and Rockwall, the population loss in the uber-Republican rural areas, and the rate at which the suburbs are diversifying and trending away from the Republicans, it seems a realistic possibility that we witness this backfire spectacularly by the end of the decade. TX-3, TX-12, TX-24, and TX-26 all look particularly vulnerable.

Here are the comparisons with previous years for the four districts in question:

TX-3 (Collin County)

2014 Governor: R+41.0 (29.5% D, 70.5% R)
2016 Presidential: R+26.7 (33.6% D, 60.3% R)
2018 Senate: R+16.0 (41.8% D, 57.8% R)
2020 Presidential: R+15.0 (41.6% D, 6.6% R)

TX-12 (West Tarrant County + Parker County)

2014 Governor: R+28.6 (35.7% D, 64.3% R)
2016 Presidential: R+25.2 (34.8% D, 60.0% R)
2018 Senate: R+16.1 (41.5% D, 57.6% R)
2020 Presidential: R+17.9 (40.2% D, 58.1% R)

TX-24 (North Tarrant County + North Dallas County)

2014 Governor: R+38.2 (30.9% D, 69.1% R)
2016 Presidential: R+23.9 (35.4% D, 59.3% R)
2018 Senate: R+14.5 (42.3% D, 56.8% R)
2020 Presidential: R+12.2 (43.1% D, 55.3% R)

TX-26 (Denton County)

2014 Governor: R+43.8 (28.1% D, 71.9% R)
2016 Presidential: R+30.8 (32.0% D, 62.8% R)
2018 Senate: R+20.2 (39.5% D, 59.7% R)
2020 Presidential: R+18.7 (39.9% D, 58.6% R)

Perhaps this quasi-dummymander is worth it as the trends may not come into play for many more years, but when they do, they'll hit hard as much of it is demographic change. It's just a matter of when.


Finally, the lack of population deviation in the map is admirable.

It’s really telling that Biden did better than O’Roruke in most of these seats despite losing by more statewide. TX-24 and TX-03 will flip by the end of the decade, I don’t think there’s any doubt in my mind of that.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Remember that the map is only a dummymander if it fails to deliver net gains over the decade as a whole.

[DrScholl]

I drew a fair map that maximizes the VRA without any tricks like drawing in low CVAP areas to give Republicans an advantage. Everything else outside of the VRA is drawn geographically. This worked out to 21-17 Biden.

[S019]

I'm honestly really surprised that Kay Granger was willing to take a seat that could flip within 10 years.

Remember that the map is only a dummymander if it fails to deliver net gains over the decade as a whole.

I do think that's possible honestly, consensus seems to Democrats gain at least two (24 and 3) and possibly more (38, 21, etc.), for the Republicans 15 is a plausible pickup and maybe 28 if RGV trends continue, though I'm less sure about that one given it's more urban parts of the RGV like Hidalgo and Webb which shifted much less than the rural parts and also has a sizable chunk of Bexar County, 34 is not flipping unless we see 2016->2020 shifts replicated multiple times, which seems unlikely imo.

[Roll Roons]

I'm honestly really surprised that Kay Granger was willing to take a seat that could flip within 10 years.

Between her age and committee chair term limits, there's a very good chance Granger retires in 2024.

[Real Texan Politics]

Do you know who's favoured in the Austin Thunderdome for the new ultra blue district ?

I could see a new socialist "squad" member coming from that district, knowing Austin. They seem to be more friendly to progressives.

[beesley]

http://

Do you know who's favoured in the Austin Thunderdome for the new ultra blue district ?

I could see a new socialist "squad" member coming from that district, knowing Austin. They seem to be more friendly to progressives.

He's not really a natural 'squad' member, but I presume Mike Siegel is likely to run, given it takes the North Austin parts of the current TX-10.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm honestly really surprised that Kay Granger was willing to take a seat that could flip within 10 years.

Remember that the map is only a dummymander if it fails to deliver net gains over the decade as a whole.

I do think that's possible honestly, consensus seems to Democrats gain at least two (24 and 3) and possibly more (38, 21, etc.), for the Republicans 15 is a plausible pickup and maybe 28 if RGV trends continue, though I'm less sure about that one given it's more urban parts of the RGV like Hidalgo and Webb which shifted much less than the rural parts and also has a sizable chunk of Bexar County, 34 is not flipping unless we see 2016->2020 shifts replicated multiple times, which seems unlikely imo.

I meant net gains as in net gains relative to perhaps the average of what "neutral" maps would produce. It's not a very well-defined thing though.

[Gass3268]

Texas State House

https://twitter.com/patricksvitek/status/1443606623688302603?s=21

[Gass3268]

Some of these Republican seats in the DFW area won’t last 5 years.

https://twitter.com/bruneelections/status/1443611465622163457?s=21