Non-metro working class areas left still strong in

[mileslunn]

Much talk recently has been outside large metro areas, many working class areas that used to vote for parties on left have swung rightward.  I was wondering if any could name places that still continue to vote left and haven't yet shifted.

Only I can think of is northern parts of Norway, Sweden, and Finland as well as Alentejo region of Portugal (often communists come in second here).  I believe there are a few in France and Germany but not widespread and cannot remember exact locations.

Some that are shifting but haven't yet flipped are Iron Ridge in Minnesota and Wisconsin, Northern Ontario, Welsh Valleys and Silver Bow & Deer Lodge counties in Montana.

[mileslunn]

Another one is Alentejo region of Portugal.  Don't know specifics but I believe in Australia some but fewer than in past.

[wnwnwn]

The rural black belt of the deep south.
Some rural areas north of San Francisco, I suppose.

[King of Kensington]

Vancouver Island?

[mileslunn]

Vancouver Island?

That is true.  Northern part will be interesting if that holds or not.  Southern part is more a lot of your ex hippie type retirees so I don't see rural areas south of Nanaimo swinging right although I guess Conservatives could win some if Liberals, NDP and Greens split vote enough but need to be a pretty big split.

The rural black belt of the deep south.
Some rural areas north of San Francisco, I suppose.

Those are more upper middle class like Sonoma County.  Mendocino County perhaps but still has lots of your granola type liberals.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Much talk recently has been outside large metro areas, many working class areas that used to vote for parties on left have swung rightward.  I was wondering if any could name places that still continue to vote left and haven't yet shifted.

Only I can think of is northern parts of Norway, Sweden, and Finland as well as Alentejo region of Portugal (often communists come in second here).  I believe there are a few in France and Germany but not widespread and cannot remember exact locations.

Some that are shifting but haven't yet flipped are Iron Ridge in Minnesota and Wisconsin, Northern Ontario, Welsh Valleys and Silver Bow & Deer Lodge counties in Montana.

The Valleys swung about as much as the rest of the UK did in the last general election, so evidence that they're swinging rightwards is, if we're being very generous, less than strong.

[mileslunn]

Much talk recently has been outside large metro areas, many working class areas that used to vote for parties on left have swung rightward.  I was wondering if any could name places that still continue to vote left and haven't yet shifted.

Only I can think of is northern parts of Norway, Sweden, and Finland as well as Alentejo region of Portugal (often communists come in second here).  I believe there are a few in France and Germany but not widespread and cannot remember exact locations.

Some that are shifting but haven't yet flipped are Iron Ridge in Minnesota and Wisconsin, Northern Ontario, Welsh Valleys and Silver Bow & Deer Lodge counties in Montana.

The Valleys swung about as much as the rest of the UK did in the last general election, so evidence that they're swinging rightwards is, if we're being very generous, less than strong.

True although Welsh Valleys still voted Labour even if margins much lower than have been in past.  Many other areas like that have flipped completely not just seen gap narrow.

[Wiswylfen]

The vast majority of England. In Northumberland:

Labour will have done decently in the working-class parts of Berwick even at the last election, though residual Lib Dem strength will have kept the numbers down and perhaps kept the Conservatives ahead (though, then distinguishing between 'working-class areas' and 'working-class voters'...). The same goes for Alnwick. In the rest of north Northumberland Labour will have done about as well as you'd expect for the region though with some strength in the towns that have a decent share of social housing.

Heading into the Northumberland coalfield and along the coast Labour's numbers will have jumped and then gradually built until reaching their height in Ashington. We will have won Ashington by a clear margin in 2019, and a vote-share probably exceeding 60% in most of it: that Wansbeck almost fell was down to Morpeth and to a lesser extent Bedlington, it being a landslide, and yes, some decrease in our margin in Ashington.

We'll have won Blyth and lost the constituency thanks to Cramlington. In the pit villages along the Seaton Burn we will have put up a good fight and our decline there is largely thanks to newbuilds.

Killingworth and to the north of it Camperdown and Burradon will have been a similar story. Killingworth itself quite polarised, but it won't have been close in the latter two since they lack the newbuilds of the aforementioned others.

Now heading west along the Tyne, we'll have won Newburn and Throckley, done decently in Prudhoe if not have won that, won the working-class parts of Hexham and surrounding villages, and finished it off with a victory in Haltwhistle.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Teleology is a fundamentally stupid way of looking at voting patterns.

[Dr. MB]

a lot of the smaller cities in the PNW and California

[ingemann]

In Denmark the very rural island of Lolland have always been strongly left wing.

[mileslunn]

a lot of the smaller cities in the PNW and California

Olympic Peninsula went for Obama but swung over to Trump.  Some places like San Juan Islands and Northern California coast are but those are more your granola eating type progressives and well educated progressive boomer retirees not your blue collar types.  Coastal Oregon is same thus why Clatsop County still Democrat but Tillamook County has swung GOP.

[Dr. MB]

a lot of the smaller cities in the PNW and California

Olympic Peninsula went for Obama but swung over to Trump.  Some places like San Juan Islands and Northern California coast are but those are more your granola eating type progressives and well educated progressive boomer retirees not your blue collar types.  Coastal Oregon is same thus why Clatsop County still Democrat but Tillamook County has swung GOP.

Salem and Eugene both vote Democrat and aren't necessarily high income cities. Same with Yakima in Washington. A lot of the areas you mentioned still voted Democratic, just by less.

[King of Kensington]

How do the Ds do in Springfield, Oregon (hometown of the Simpsons)?

[mileslunn]

How do the Ds do in Springfield, Oregon (hometown of the Simpsons)?

They won it, but by around 15 points and its right next door to Eugene which is super liberal so probably some spillover from that.

[mileslunn]

I should have prefaced it as white working class as areas like Yakima (large Hispanic community), Black belt in South still going Democrat.  Likewise in other countries non-whites mostly in cities, but First Nations in Northern Canada, Aboriginals in Northern Territories of Australia, and Maori in rural New Zealand still vote left.  In fact left has done a good job of holding non-white working class and any support right gets from non-whites tends to be the more well off.  But amongst white working class, it seems only in larger cities is it holding up, not so much in smaller or rural.  Also in large cities those are mostly service industry jobs while in smaller communities tend to be more manufacturing or primary sector.