2020 Texas Redistricting thread

[Gass3268]

Anyway, I tried to make a completely trend-resistant map with 2018 populations. It locks in a 17D-21R map through 2030 even if TX becomes 55-45 Dem. The key is to concede 5 safe seats to Dems in Dallas-Fort Worth, 4 in Houston, 2 in Austin, 2 in San Antonio, 1 in El Paso, and 3 along the Rio Grande Valley. It should have 7 Latino VRA seats, 2 black VRA seats and 16 majority minority seats overall. With the remaining metropolitan suburbs and exurbs, I made sure to split them out to different rural areas so even with enormous future growth, they should be majority non-metropolitan seats. The map looks like this:



DFW Closeup:


Houston Closeup:

South Texas violates the VRA, everything else looks great.

[Gass3268]

Anyway, I tried to make a completely trend-resistant map with 2018 populations. It locks in a 17D-21R map through 2030 even if TX becomes 55-45 Dem. The key is to concede 5 safe seats to Dems in Dallas-Fort Worth, 4 in Houston, 2 in Austin, 2 in San Antonio, 1 in El Paso, and 3 along the Rio Grande Valley. It should have 7 Latino VRA seats, 2 black VRA seats and 16 majority minority seats overall. With the remaining metropolitan suburbs and exurbs, I made sure to split them out to different rural areas so even with enormous future growth, they should be majority non-metropolitan seats. The map looks like this:



DFW Closeup:


Houston Closeup:

South Texas violates the VRA, everything else looks great.

Does it? I just swapped the 3 fajitas+San Antonio to El Paso district for a McAllen pack, Brownsville fajita, Laredo-El Paso district, and second San Antonio Latino district. Same number of VRA districts in the same area but with different combinations.

That McAllen pack packs in too many Latinos into one district. The current fajita strips situation is essentially mandated under the current court interpretation of the VRA.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1442478282872705026?s=21

[Gass3268]

According to this article the GOP is going for a 24-14 map??   It might come out today.

https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2021/09/27/republicans-texas-red-redistricting-514330?__twitter_impression=true

edit - I guess reading it over again, maybe they mean 25-13.

Sounds like it will be 24-13-1, with the 1 being a swingy seat in the RGV area.

[Gass3268]

Congressional Map is out

[Gass3268]

Dave thinks that Vicente Gonzalez will move over to Filemon Vela's now open TX-34, leaving TX-15 open.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1442505357520220170?s=20

[Gass3268]

Conservative Election Twitter is not happy right now.

[Gass3268]

Conservative Election Twitter is not happy right now.

I don't see why, it's a pretty good map for Republicans

I know.  While Dems will probably get TX-21 and at least one more seat out of DFW by the end of the decade, Republicans will probably flip TX-15 next year and TX-28 whenever Cuellar retires.  I don't see what's not to like for TX R's?  If Dems can take a majority of the seats on this map by the end of the decade, it was an AR 2011 style lost cause anyway.  

They have a very poor understanding of the VRA and thick they can eliminate the fajita strips and pack the RGV. They also think that Fletcher and Allred should have had their seats eliminated.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1442514259842375689?s=20

[Gass3268]

Texas State House

https://twitter.com/patricksvitek/status/1443606623688302603?s=21

[Gass3268]

Some of these Republican seats in the DFW area won’t last 5 years.

https://twitter.com/bruneelections/status/1443611465622163457?s=21

[Gass3268]

Change in Collin County for the House Map as they have drawn a Democratic pack.

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1445463242239668233?s=20

[Gass3268]

Fort Bliss is still removed from the El Paso based TX-16.

[Gass3268]

The chances the map getting overturned, at least in the short term, are close to 0.

Best case would be the Supreme Court requires some edits to be made.

[Gass3268]

Reporting suggests that there shouldn't be any major changes, but they could be wrong.