2020 Texas Redistricting thread

[lfromnj]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/215c4506-b2b1-43d9-9041-f9c9fab5e391
so I constructed this map.
three D seats in DFW, with northern Dallas County cracked between 4 seats, all of them GOP-leaning
an ingenious way of preventing an additional Democrat from getting elected from Travis County - one seat going west far into West Texas, another going east in Montgomery County, and then a D vote sink
TX-07 is kept competitive by becoming more exurban
Fort Bend is chopped in half to prevent a D from winning there
TX-23 is turned into a McCain district, but its Hispanic % is higher than in the 2010s
12 districts went to McCain with over 65%, and 9 more gave him between 60% and 65%.

The Texas 8 and 9 in your map are like Trump +6 and +7, Denton and Collin can't be used to shore up North Dallas, they have to go west and east.

Your williamson county district is Trump +8 so that flips in 2018 to MJ hegar.

Also theres no need for RGV districts, 3 is enough.

[lfromnj]

People aren't using all the exurbs properly, Tarrant has plenty of red exurbs surrounding it so you don't need a sink there All Trump districts in this map although it doesn't have population adjusments are greater than 60. Not risking the use of Collin County to shore up North Dallas as Collin itself can barely hold up and will need to be split. Population is going to be changed a bit due to Collins extreme growth.

There wasn't even a serious need for a Tarrant sink this decade with hindsight, the only reason it existed is because of the VRA.


https://dvr.capitol.texas.gov/?PlanHeader=PLANC185

This would have given 0 tarrant districts and only 1 Dallas sink but still ended up with only 3 D districts by 2018 due to Dallas. (32 and 6 flip, 24 is the same as the current map)So shift half of the Tarrant sink to Dallas county which needs more population taken up and then carve up the rest of Tarrant. So the above proposed map in 2010 wouldn't have been a dummymander this decade although it would collapse next decade.

[lfromnj]

I don't know this stuff as well as you guys, but if I were in the republicans' position, I would cede most urban and inner suburban areas to democrats. Something like

Dallas- 4
Houston- 3/4 (depending on whether you count Fort Bend as Houston)
Austin- 2
San Antonio-1/2 (depending on how much they wanna fajita strip areas to the north and to the valley)

They could end up doing this, but only if 2020 goes at leas as bad as 2018 for them.  Should they lose something statewide in 2020 but retain redistricting control, they won't be taking any chances this time.  

The GOP would probably lose control of the Texas HoR on the current map before they lose any statewide races (as I recall, O'Rourke won an easy majority of Texas HoR seats in 2018 even while losing statewide), so that may be a moot point.

Well he didn't win an easy majority, he literally won the barest majority btw. 76/150.

[lfromnj]

I don't know this stuff as well as you guys, but if I were in the republicans' position, I would cede most urban and inner suburban areas to democrats. Something like

Dallas- 4
Houston- 3/4 (depending on whether you count Fort Bend as Houston)
Austin- 2
San Antonio-1/2 (depending on how much they wanna fajita strip areas to the north and to the valley)

They could end up doing this, but only if 2020 goes at leas as bad as 2018 for them.  Should they lose something statewide in 2020 but retain redistricting control, they won't be taking any chances this time.  

The GOP would probably lose control of the Texas HoR on the current map before they lose any statewide races (as I recall, O'Rourke won an easy majority of Texas HoR seats in 2018 even while losing statewide), so that may be a moot point.

It is an interesting issue of what happens if the Democrats control the Texas HoR (or otherwise the Republicans can't pass their maps, say if they have a majority of 1 or 2 and some rebels who are anti-gerrymandering).

In that event all redistricting goes to a backup commission made of statewide elected officials, so unless Ds play ball and manage to get a compromise somewhere involving the state leg and/or congressional maps, then its another GOPmander.

IIRC thats state legislative maps but the congressional maps goes to a court which obviously can't blatantly gerrymander but when the state maps flip back in 2022(backlash from 2020 megawave+ fresh gerrymandering) the texas GOP can do mid decade redistricting if they wish ala 2004.

[lfromnj]

this is a "good government" 38-district map made from 2016 population estimates, emphasis was on creating compact seats.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/047dc5e1-31f1-46d7-918c-4f442f857c58

there are 13 Obama districts, 1 district where Obama and McCain were exactly tied, and 24 McCain seats. However I assume it would be Dem leaning today.

No good government would draw the fajittas reasonably.

[lfromnj]

this is a "good government" 38-district map made from 2016 population estimates, emphasis was on creating compact seats.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/047dc5e1-31f1-46d7-918c-4f442f857c58

there are 13 Obama districts, 1 district where Obama and McCain were exactly tied, and 24 McCain seats. However I assume it would be Dem leaning today.

No good government would draw the fajittas reasonably.

?

Sorry I mean the fajjitas are an unfair tear up of  the COI's I guess they would be mandated by the VRA  to expand hispanic representation  I guess. You can easily just draw 3 simple RGV districts instead of stripping them far north, I doubt the courts will require the fajittas anyway because they fail the Gingles test of a compact COI. If texas already has a natural geographical advantage for Democrats why would a fair map try to make even more tilted in favor of Ds by stripping away hispanic districts. A good government map would naturall draw good COI's in Dallas and Houston accepting that the GOP will be underrepresented in those areas per vote while also accepting that if Hispanics largely live in one region they should be kept in a district in that region.

[lfromnj]

this is a "good government" 38-district map made from 2016 population estimates, emphasis was on creating compact seats.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/047dc5e1-31f1-46d7-918c-4f442f857c58

there are 13 Obama districts, 1 district where Obama and McCain were exactly tied, and 24 McCain seats. However I assume it would be Dem leaning today.

No good government would draw the fajittas reasonably.

?

Sorry I mean the fajjitas are an unfair tear up of  the COI's I guess they would be mandated by the VRA  to expand hispanic representation  I guess. You can easily just draw 3 simple RGV districts instead of stripping them far north, I doubt the courts will require the fajittas anyway because they fail the Gingles test of a compact COI. If texas already has a natural geographical advantage for Democrats why would a fair map try to make even more tilted in favor of Ds by stripping away hispanic districts. A good government map would naturall draw good COI's in Dallas and Houston accepting that the GOP will be underrepresented in those areas per vote while also accepting that if Hispanics largely live in one region they should be kept in a district in that region.

I'm not signing up for a debate about the merits and drawbacks of the fajitas - I will just say that I see them as necessary and you will not see me remove them from my maps. That is all.

Cool just don't call it a good government map, call it a court map if you wish .

[lfromnj]

Anyway not sure if legal but a much better and much more good government RGV + San antonio.+ El paso
Obviously Safe D El Paso. Texas 23 moves 2 points right.

Within Bexar the grey southern district is Safe D at Obama +27.
Central Bexar is Obama +10 so with Clintons improved margins it should be Safe D by now.
Laredo to Nueces is Likely D at Obama +8(but obama 2012 improved a lot here and Clinton improved in Nueces and had a net vote margin improvement in Laredo) . Its clinton 54.5 and Trump 41.5 so Clinton +13, probably Likely D. The other 2 RGV are Safe D of course.

I think everyone else would agree this map is much more respecting of COIs rather than randomly stripping white rural people who live hudnreds of miles away to be in the same district as mostly urban latinos to further enhance the Latinos already natural geographic advantage.

[lfromnj]

Anyway will start drawing it soon but thought of a concept for a Safe 14-25 map, if the 5th circuit literally doesn't care about the VRA

 4 Houston seats
4 Dallas seats(could be 3 even). 4 seats each should easily hold up for a decade.
Travis= 1 pure sink in central Travis, Draw one in SE travis to Hispanic San antonio,similar to the current Tx 35th,
1 El paso
2 RGV, (Hidalgo +cameron + few more counties)
1 Laredo to San antonio
The rest of the map is GOP.

[lfromnj]

Ok lets go
2018 Population estimates added to DRA in the 2010 files so we can now make a proper texas map.

[lfromnj]

Ok lets go
2018 Population estimates added to DRA in the 2010 files so we can now make a proper texas map.

How do you get the population estimates to update?

Its the regular map you open up with 2010 Voting districts, where you see all the partisan data theres also a check box for 2018 population updates. Unfortunately the left tab that keeps track of population hasn't been updated so you have to keep checking it. So when you open Texas you see 25m with 2010 and 39 districts is about 645 on the left. However when you click on the district it will tell the estimated 2018 data.

[lfromnj]

I am pretty sure after this decade's weakening of the VRA the fajitas won't be required anymore especially as they don't fit the gingles test(compactness)

[lfromnj]

Again the worst GOP will need to go to if it wants maximum safety
3 RGV
1 El paso
1 San antonio
1 San Antonio to Austin
1 Austin
4 DFW
4 Houston
thats 15 D seats max and tbh 13 or 14 would do it.

[lfromnj]

Again the worst GOP will need to go to if it wants maximum safety
3 RGV
1 El paso
1 San antonio
1 San Antonio to Austin
1 Austin
4 DFW
4 Houston
thats 15 D seats max and tbh 13 or 14 would do it.

Not a chance. I still don't see how you get DFW down from 5 to 4 districts.

What do you see as safe?

[lfromnj]

Again the worst GOP will need to go to if it wants maximum safety
3 RGV
1 El paso
1 San antonio
1 San Antonio to Austin
1 Austin
4 DFW
4 Houston
thats 15 D seats max and tbh 13 or 14 would do it.

Not a chance. I still don't see how you get DFW down from 5 to 4 districts.

What do you see as safe?

1 El Paso
3 RGV
2 San Antonio
2 Austin
4 Houston
5 DFW

I can see getting San Antonio+Austin down to 3, but I think later in the decade, it just wouldn't hold as Travis, Hayes, and Williamson make up a growing share of whatever rural districts you strip them out to. Maybe DFW can get down to 4 but I haven't worked out a way yet. So far, it looks like you need the black Dallas VRA, a west Dallas seat, an east Tarrant seat, a Plano/Richardson seat, and a southwest Collin/southeast Denton/northwest Dallas seat.

Again what are the numbers for what you see as safe?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::e0feb46f-177c-4cdf-8de8-6e93da4d4ae5

(made by meepcheese or OregonBluedog on the forum, it does assume a complete lack of the VRA in south Texas so it would be 12-27)
However here the Dallas area uses 3 sinks and you got all 60% Trump seats, Yes Trump 60% with like 32 or 33% Clinton is absolutely Safe and will last a decade, growth in Plano has already stopped FYI as its now only like 10%

[lfromnj]

You don't want Trump +15 you probably want +22 or +23 especially in Austin. Only areas where Trump +15 is acceptable is maybe if you combine inner city with rurals where in that case the inner city is already maxed out and the rurals won't be swinging much or San Antonio and rurals could also work.

Texas 31 was +1 Cruz but +13 Trump while TX 10 was +9 Trump and +0 beto and TX 21 was +10 Trump and +0 Cruz. Also you added Brazos to Austin which is just as #resistance +35 Romney,+24 Trump +11 Cruz so nope.
Your map really isn't an aggressive R gerrymander its just a Clean R gerrymander that has a decent chance of falling.

[lfromnj]

Does anyone know exactly why the old Texas 25th was ruled illegal(the one Dogget was placed in from 2004 to 2006)

If the goal is to prevent a Hispanic pack then taking in a little bit of Austin white libs(around 200 to 220k each) could be a feasible for 4 districts. This way I have removed about 900k people In Austin+Williamson and a little bit more in Hays and split it 4 ways down South. So theres still effectively a district in Austin for the sink but its now been pizza sliced into 4 districts so rather than mixing Fajitas with white rurals its white libs. So rather than Ds getting 3 nice barely Safe D Rio Grande districts this adds another "Hispanic" district but makes them all like D+15-16 PVI on average instead of D+10,D+9,D+7. So this gerrymander could solve Hispanic representation in South Texas and let TX 23 go to a Safe R district while also taking care of that Austin sink(1 district in austin is probably enough but 1.33 makes it a bit safer.) Only major downside I see for the GOP is that Henry Cuellar who sometimes votes with them is screwed here as he's placed with the whitest D part of Austin and Williamson.



I think Houston and Dallas can also be shored up for 2022 with 3 sinks each but later on they might fall would 3/7 of an extra sink to each region work?
(100k rural connections)

Is point contiguity allowed in Texas? You could basically just make this green strip a super thin strip and then use point contiguity to do anything else.

This way  4 RGV/Austin districts
1 SA
1 el paso and 7 Houston/Dallas. for a total of 13-26 or 13-25.

[lfromnj]

Ah I think Hispanics would still have their choice in most districts, its just Cuellar would get a national challenge, even perhaps from a Hispanic in the RGV but Austin libs would obviously vote en masse against him so thats why he's doomed, each district has about 31% of the population and perhaps a bit more of the electorate from Austin. The GOP should probably try to get rid of the VRA problem and the Austin.

[lfromnj]

Im pretty sure all 3 current Houstoun districts are VRA  compliant why would the GOP draw a non VRA district in Texas in 2010?

[lfromnj]

Nice job rescuing the donors in Dallas.

[lfromnj]

He optimized the map to have 99% safety and  then maximized the seats.

[lfromnj]

How is splitting core austin 3 ways neutral?
Even if you think that's fair it's still a complete gop court they would pass another neutral map that doesn't have that.

Also your map isnt 2018 pop so its way off. You have to estimate by 2018 not 2010 population. Also that 7/37 vertical parralel split for 2 Lean D seats doesn't look very neutral either. Also when posting a pic of a map remove the precints and put the numbers(I forget to do this too)

Also whats very possible is a narrow dem majority could be bribed by the GOP bribing AA legislators in Houston and maybe even Dallas to vote for their map instead of risking something closer to your map where you don't even have 1 clear black houston seat by CVAP.




Here's a compromise map for the Houston area where 2 black seats are preserved. (the green district is very ugly to keep Bellaire and the villages together btw) Although maybe the GOP will want to rescue those voters and put them in Crenshaws district. Black vs Hispanic parochial concerns will be quite strong especially when AA voters are over represented in Houston with 2 districts but which they will want to keep.

[lfromnj]

If R's lose the house, a Republican controlled backup commission draws the lines.  A Dem gerrymander isn't happening.  The best case for Dems is 23-16. 

False,the state supreme court draws the federal map, legislative is done by the commision. A court map would be limited relatively.

[lfromnj]

If R's lose the house, a Republican controlled backup commission draws the lines.  A Dem gerrymander isn't happening.  The best case for Dems is 23-16. 

False,the state supreme court draws the federal map, legislative is done by the commision. A court map would be limited relatively.

ok, it would still benefit R's tho.  But instead of a 25-14 map you might get a 23-16 map with 1 or 2 swingy seats on each side. 

 Lets say 3 RGV seats. 1 SA/RGV seat.
1 El paso. Probably 2 Austin seats( I can't see a way to get Ds down to 1 seat in austin in any compact map). At least 4 Dallas seats and at least 4 Houston. However the problem with a court map for Ds is the AA legislators in Houston would squeal.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/mattmxhn/status/1288706065748590592

Lets get some Beto numbers.