2020 Texas Redistricting thread

[Mr.Phips]

It appears that it is more likely that Fletcher (and maybe even Allred?) are going to get screwed in redistricting as they really want Wesley Hunt to run for Congress. I wouldn't be surprised to see if the GOP proposes a 27 R - 11 D map in the coming weeks.

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/09/23/texas-congress-redistricting-fletcher/

They probably can’t draw Allred and shore up TX-24 without a dummymander in 2024. They also likely need to make one of the new seats an Austin vote sink.  27-12 is very likely the most they can get away with (making up for the Austin sink by making TX-34 a mid to high single digit Trump seat and going after Fletcher).  However going after Fletcher and also shoring up TX-02 and TX-22 has dummymander potential in 2024.

[dpmapper]

They can split the baby by making TX-7 Trump+2 or something, leaving the other districts at Trump+17 or so.  Whichever district is on the east side of Harris County (Pasadena, Baytown etc.) can be a bit closer than that since the Hispanic population over there is trending right. 

[Torie]

They can split the baby by making TX-7 Trump+2 or something, leaving the other districts at Trump+17 or so.  Whichever district is on the east side of Harris County (Pasadena, Baytown etc.) can be a bit closer than that since the Hispanic population over there is trending right. 

[Brittain33]

Seriously, leaving TX-7 as a competitive district that Republicans win in a 2014 or 2016 environment rather than trying to pack it or crack it should be considered a good outcome for them. They shouldn’t need to push everything to extremes.

[Torie]

"They shouldn’t need to push everything to extremes."

Even if it were not TX, where they think big, surely you jest. You know that is not how the game is played.

Actually, the gerrymandering diet in general, and certainly in TX, is for a gourmand (right up to but not including the point of vomiting),  not a gourmet. You devour everything you legally can that does not have a substantial potential of causing one to lose more down the line than is gained now, that has district coherency. In TX, district coherency is tricky. You need to try to separate high SES urban whites from rural and small town crazies, so the latter don't control Pub primaries in CD's with a lot of the former. That requires some care and thought.

Crenshaw would be the perfect Pub candidate for TX-07 btw (he actually lives in the CD in an apartment rather than in the CD he represents, TX-02). TX-07, as I drew it, I call the gated golf course communities CD - it has a lot of them. The Hispanics who pad out the CD will like his eye patch.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1442478282872705026?s=21

[Nyvin]

According to this article the GOP is going for a 24-14 map??   It might come out today.

https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2021/09/27/republicans-texas-red-redistricting-514330?__twitter_impression=true

edit - I guess reading it over again, maybe they mean 25-13.

[Gass3268]

According to this article the GOP is going for a 24-14 map??   It might come out today.

https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2021/09/27/republicans-texas-red-redistricting-514330?__twitter_impression=true

edit - I guess reading it over again, maybe they mean 25-13.

Sounds like it will be 24-13-1, with the 1 being a swingy seat in the RGV area.

[Gass3268]

Congressional Map is out

[Skill and Chance]

They clearly decided to vote-sink Fletcher with the Dem parts of Ft. Bend to protect Nehls and give Wesley Hunt a seat.

This is pretty tame outside of DFW and CD-10. 

TX-15 is still a Biden district.

[Roll Roons]

Is there a link we can use to zoom in?

[Nyvin]

Is there a link we can use to zoom in?

https://data.capitol.texas.gov/dataset/cf8703c8-1692-4b94-8ed1-9cbf2b2fa7dd/resource/e0b01e67-ef1c-493f-8012-4ade59aebc34/download/planc2101.pdf

I'm counting 15 seats Dems could win, although I don't know about 24 and 38.

TX-10 is pretty needlessly absurd.

[Sol]

That Amarillo to Denton district is just straight up funny: "we can't trust the country music hipsters to be with the suburbanites"

[Oryxslayer]

Both swing district dems get safe seats, though Fletcher is out likely through a primary to a minority candidate. Also new Austin seat OFC. New Districts 38 and 7 really should trade numbers, cause 38 is a clear successor, and it's probably why the GOP was pushing for Wesley Hunt to run again.

You can tell their desperate and recognize the state is falling, what with the narrow linkages needed to maximize packing and cracking potential. Things like 35 getting narrower between the cities, 10 squiggling around Austin, the alternating tendrils of 33 and 6, and whatever the hell 4 is trying to do.

[Skill and Chance]

Is there a link we can use to zoom in?

https://data.capitol.texas.gov/dataset/cf8703c8-1692-4b94-8ed1-9cbf2b2fa7dd/resource/e0b01e67-ef1c-493f-8012-4ade59aebc34/download/planc2101.pdf

I'm counting 15 seats Dems could win, although I don't know about 24 and 38.

TX-10 is pretty needlessly absurd.

I doubt TX-10, TX-03, and TX-24 will last the decade, but they should pick up TX-15 at some point.   

[Thunder98]

Is there a link we can use to zoom in?

https://data.capitol.texas.gov/dataset/cf8703c8-1692-4b94-8ed1-9cbf2b2fa7dd/resource/e0b01e67-ef1c-493f-8012-4ade59aebc34/download/planc2101.pdf

I'm counting 15 seats Dems could win, although I don't know about 24 and 38.

TX-10 is pretty needlessly absurd.

TX-10 goes from Austin all the way to Huntsville, TX. 🤡

[Stuart98]

Good map for dems compared to what we could have gotten. Also an incredibly ugly gerrymander.

[lfromnj]

They clearly decided to vote-sink Fletcher with the Dem parts of Ft. Bend to protect Nehls and give Wesley Hunt a seat.

This is pretty tame outside of DFW and CD-10. 

TX-15 is still a Biden district.

No its Trump +2

[Skill and Chance]

Is there a link we can use to zoom in?

https://data.capitol.texas.gov/dataset/cf8703c8-1692-4b94-8ed1-9cbf2b2fa7dd/resource/e0b01e67-ef1c-493f-8012-4ade59aebc34/download/planc2101.pdf

I'm counting 15 seats Dems could win, although I don't know about 24 and 38.

TX-10 is pretty needlessly absurd.

I doubt TX-10, TX-03, and TX-24 will last the decade, but they should pick up TX-15 at some point.   

Maybe TX-38 as well.

Unlikely.  It's closer than some others on paper, but the swing vote in that seat is now going to be petroleum engineers.  While they may have been culturally turned off by Trump, they have zero reason to vote for a generic Democrat downballot and now Biden has really messed with their jobs.  

[Skill and Chance]

They clearly decided to vote-sink Fletcher with the Dem parts of Ft. Bend to protect Nehls and give Wesley Hunt a seat.

This is pretty tame outside of DFW and CD-10. 

TX-15 is still a Biden district.

No its Trump +2

Thanks.  Must have gotten the county split wrong.  That's 2020, right?  How much did Clinton win it by?

[lfromnj]

They clearly decided to vote-sink Fletcher with the Dem parts of Ft. Bend to protect Nehls and give Wesley Hunt a seat.

This is pretty tame outside of DFW and CD-10. 

TX-15 is still a Biden district.

No its Trump +2

Thanks.  Must have gotten the county split wrong.  That's 2020, right?  How much did Clinton win it by?

13

[Skill and Chance]

Basically, this works for them +/- 1-2 seats unless DFW goes full Atlanta, and they could still cancel that out if the RGV goes the way of coal country in the 2000's.

[Gass3268]

Dave thinks that Vicente Gonzalez will move over to Filemon Vela's now open TX-34, leaving TX-15 open.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1442505357520220170?s=20

[Skill and Chance]

Actually TX-21 looks like the possible Austin area flip, not TX-10.  I would imagine Chip Roy has made some enemies in the GOP legislative caucus!

[Gass3268]

Conservative Election Twitter is not happy right now.