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Torie
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« on: January 03, 2021, 10:11:48 AM »
« edited: January 03, 2021, 05:02:49 PM by Torie »

Here is my Pubmander light effort. In reality, I doubt the Pubs will be this kind, and will go for some erose monster (see above!), e.g., to bring the rurals into the city more. But given the massive Dem trends in Houston and Dallas, I wonder if they might risk going into dummymander territory. In that regard, one might note that I “gave” the Dems the Ft. Bend based CD, and “allowed” the rich Dallas CD to be competitive (and headed to the Dems if not there already), unless the Pubs undergo a Trump exorcism.  I suspect Texas, more than any other state, has more potential for a dummymander outside, of course, the Rio Grande Valley, where I did make a play for the Pubs to potentially snatch away the CD along the Gulf of Mexico.  And no fajita strips! No, the VRA does not require them, and the analytics show that I am the best thing ever for minorities in Texas since the invention of fried chicken and tacos to boot. So there!  Angel















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Torie
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« Reply #1 on: January 04, 2021, 06:20:52 PM »
« Edited: January 04, 2021, 06:49:36 PM by Torie »

Here is my Pubmander light effort. In reality, I doubt the Pubs will be this kind, and will go for some erose monster (see above!), e.g., to bring the rurals into the city more. But given the massive Dem trends in Houston and Dallas, I wonder if they might risk going into dummymander territory. In that regard, one might note that I “gave” the Dems the Ft. Bend based CD, and “allowed” the rich Dallas CD to be competitive (and headed to the Dems if not there already), unless the Pubs undergo a Trump exorcism.  I suspect Texas, more than any other state, has more potential for a dummymander outside, of course, the Rio Grande Valley, where I did make a play for the Pubs to potentially snatch away the CD along the Gulf of Mexico.  And no fajita strips! No, the VRA does not require them, and the analytics show that I am the best thing ever for minorities in Texas since the invention of fried chicken and tacos to boot. So there!  Angel


No way Rs need to concede 5 seats in Houston

Yeah, I managed to squeeze out a swing seat in Houston (the remnants of the once hyper-Pub westside of Houston) out of a Dem one. There is some risk though that it may end up a dummymander as Southern big cities become over time more like Northern ones (in this case both the westside swing CD and TX-23 going down the tubes for the Pubs over time, rather than ceding one CD now). In the Houston area, there are geographic (water without bridges) and VRA constraints that build walls about options in spinning the clock. One personal "wall" for me, is that absent VRA considerations, I won't do cross chops, where two CD's chop into each other's counties (or county cross chops for that matter, even if two different CD's are involved). That ceases to be a gerrymander "light," and is the stuff that fuels backlash.







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Torie
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« Reply #2 on: January 04, 2021, 08:56:11 PM »

Not without cross chops.
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Torie
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« Reply #3 on: January 05, 2021, 09:16:26 AM »
« Edited: January 05, 2021, 09:20:33 AM by Torie »

Well there are no cross chops, I will admit that. Smiley You used the 2018 population feature, and created a black and Hispanic CD? It looks like you may have sacrificed the swing CD in Harris County, in order to Pub up Ft. Bend, and one wonders what the Pub area of Ft. Bend was attached to (if it went back into Harris that is a cross chop) and what it does to the lines in the region. I guess perhaps I will find out in the next episode. Smiley Thank you for your effort.
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Torie
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« Reply #4 on: January 10, 2021, 04:32:09 PM »

Here is another version of the Houston area that Pubs up my TX-19 a bit more (Trump 2016 won it by five points).

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Torie
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« Reply #5 on: February 22, 2021, 11:16:56 AM »
« Edited: February 24, 2021, 09:03:34 AM by Torie »

I  drew a less “lite” Pubmander of the Texas metroplex, that entails a “sex-chop” of Dallas County, but tried to respect municipal lines, and not go too wild elsewhere with chops and erosity. I am curious if anyone has an opinion as to its dummymander potential. I still have avoided the cardinal sin of cross chops between counties, unless perhaps driven by the VRA (not applicable here).

The idea as always with the party controlling the lines is to try to draw something that does not look ridiculous that would generate blowback and be a poster child used to jettison the process and/or the map at the earliest opportunity. That of course is not a thing in New York, where the voters are used to being abused, and expect the worst, and often get it, and sometimes get off on the chutzpah of it all (cf the existing CD map for the NYC area which was actually drawn by a court, but I digress). I still wonder if the GOP will be foolish enough to try to snatch the Hamilton County, Ohio based CD from the Dems. If they do, they should be punished, and then punished some more. I’m also awaiting the Dem map in Illinois outside of Chicagoland. That I suspect while also be suitable for framing as a poster child for reform.




I also played around with the Rio Grande Valley to make a "Pub-nap" of my TX-08 more likely, again while still making the map still look "reasonable." The "solution" there was to add to TX-08 some rural counties, in order to keep the City of Matamoros [Brownsville] at once  together and not in the Cameron County portion of the TX-08 (i.e., to try to max the Dem vote sink efficacy of the adjacent TX-07, which included at the margins giving some of the more Pub areas of Hildalgo to TX-06, although that CD was not a prime target).

Addendum: I modified the Rio Grande part of the map to lose the county split of San Patricio, and with that, Trump 2016 lost TX-08 by 1%, and Trump 2020 won it by 4.5% (I manually calculated the numbers for 2020 in the TX-08 share of Cameron County). I also made the lines more erose to make TX-37 more Hispanic, in an effort to make it a performing Hispanic CD.  It is on the cusp with the stale 2015 census estimates. The whites and blacks and Hispanics are oddly arrayed, with some drastic variations, where the lines get erose.


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Torie
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« Reply #6 on: February 22, 2021, 12:30:29 PM »

What does "cross chop between counties" mean?

In two adjacent counties, both CD's are in both counties.

In response to Sol, all the Hispanics are along the River, all are performing Hispanic CD's by the numbers and otherwise (including my TX-08), there is 80 miles of empty land until we find human habitation again, so no harm, so foul. So I don't see a VRA risk myself, but if you do, we can just agree to disagree on that. I don't think those hideous Fajita strips were ever required by the VRA in fact.
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Torie
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« Reply #7 on: February 22, 2021, 12:46:42 PM »

I put the same map up, with mostly the same comments, at RRH, for comment, and one regular referred me to his map, which generated this response back from me, for your entertainment.

The one below? That map I would file away into the “poster child” file, although we both channeled the bisection of Cameron County as part of the Pub-nap of the CD along the Gulf of Mexico.

The idea is when the other party says hideous gerrymander, I am as made as hell, it’s time to lash back, and I am going to sue, get something on the ballot, etc., the party holding the pen, parries that thrust with what on earth are you talking about? We don’t see a gerrymander here at all, it’s a good government map, it’s all about respecting COI’s (we have our talking points for every line on the map, we respected municipal lines, and see we gave you a bone here (c.f., Ft. Bend County in my map), because we, as always, are fair and balanced, unlike what you predatory jerks would be like if you controlled the lines).

So far, I don’t think I am making much progress as to my little project with you guys, but I accept full responsibility for my miserable fail at that. I actually like all my character flaws at this point in my life. It is like your smelly old shoe, that you still wear, because it is just so comfortable a fit 🙂

Trump 2016 lost my TX-08 by 3 points by the way, close to a neutral PVI for that election. It will be interesting to find out down the line how Trump 2020 did within those lines when the data becomes available.

https://i.imgur.com/ubxUrKf.png
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Torie
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« Reply #8 on: March 04, 2021, 12:45:35 PM »
« Edited: March 04, 2021, 06:30:33 PM by Torie »

After contorting the lines, and then contorting them some more, I was able to squeeze out a clearly performing Hispanic CD entirely within Dallas County (36.5% HCAVP, with a 30% Trump 2016 vote in TX-37), and a second clearly performing Hispanic CD in Houston (40.7% HCVAP with a 25% Trump 2016 vote in TX-20). A bonus point is that revised the boundaries between TX-21 and TX-18 to follow more naturally municipal and geographic boundaries (e.g., a river), so that it would not be deemed an illegal Hispanic pack not created to create a performing minority CD elsewhere. That got the HCVAP percentage in TX-21 down to 50.5% HCVAP from about 61%.

Under my interpretation of the current iteration of the VRA, if one does not stay close to Goldilocks (only gerrymander to help minorities and not to waste their votes for partisan reasons), you ran a substantial risk of going down in legal flames. Thus, I think the borders between black and Hispanic CD’s can be contorted within a relative compact area to create another performing CD for one or both groups, but if you have an excess minority population next to a white CD, you had better have lines between them that hew to non- partisan criteria, or revise them to so hew at least to the point that the pack is removed.   That is my grand unified theory of it all.

Yes I was incentivized to tackle this matter because another poster above got close to drawing a second performing Hispanic CD in Houston which was a wake up call. To the extent other data sets are used to draw minority CD's under the VRA, to the extent that allows smoothing out the lines, that should be. As it is, the contortions are necessary given the current data set used by the DRA redistricting tool.






Below is another iteration of Houston that does a better job of cleaning out the lines.





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Torie
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« Reply #9 on: March 05, 2021, 12:32:41 PM »
« Edited: March 05, 2021, 01:22:47 PM by Torie »

Your minority CD's are certainly nicely shaped, but that Cyan CD that you had and that lime green chop into Harris from the east disturbed me, so while I kept your  most aesthetically pleasing minority CD shapes, I did mischief around them. Those north Harris suburbs near the Woodlands in Montgomery County should really be together with the Woodlands, and thus that I think is where the major chop in to Harris should occur personally.

It of course is not going to be drawn that way by the Pubs, since it "unnecessarily" gives away the Dems the high SES Houston west side CD, and makes the CD in the NW corner of Harris too marginal. The Pubs' quota for the Dems this time is 14 seats.  While trying to minimize VRA risk, I had trouble meeting that goal myself with my don't make it too ugly maps, and my Pubmander of the south coast CD only had Trump 2020 winning by 4 points, meaning it is at most only tilt Pub. It sure would be nice to have a crystal ball, and know where high SES white votes, Hispanic and Asian voters are going to trend going forward. In Houston by the way looking at the 2020 swing map, it seems that not only the Hispanics, but also the Asians swing to Trump 2020, as the high SES whites decamped.

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Torie
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« Reply #10 on: March 27, 2021, 12:38:08 PM »
« Edited: March 28, 2021, 04:14:19 PM by Torie »

The Pubs seem determined to draw a 26R-13D map. It seems like a tall order to me. My TX-19 and TX-34 are very shaky. However, it seems that through some rather drastic measures, it is quite doable to snatch the Ft. Bend based seat from the Dems that can be expected to hold for the decade absent very substantial Dem trends in the area. The Gulf of Mexico Hispanic seat is swing absent the Pub substantial Pub trend in 2020 holding. I think the Pubs anticipate that.

It is quite possible that  the Pub drawing of the lines if they hold to their agenda will do "better" job than this with something even more hideous. We shall see.

They is still in some quarters a misunderstanding of the VRA in some quarters that assumes that because one can draw an extremely gerrymandered 50% CVAP CD, that a performing minority CD must be drawn. I disagree. One prong to mandate that is such a CD must be reasonably compact, and that does not include wandering around chopping into disparate and dispersed city to pick up the needed minority voters. But I have said all I am going to say on that. Some seem to disagree, which is OK. We shall see.


We shall see if my attempt to "publish" the map below works this time. I am not holding my breath. Tech is not my thing!

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::3e12aa3a-849f-4a02-88ee-e12160942562


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Torie
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« Reply #11 on: April 01, 2021, 11:08:15 AM »
« Edited: April 04, 2021, 11:47:19 AM by Torie »

Because the uber aggressive Pubmanderers at RRH trashed the map above as being too kind to the Dems, I took another stab at it, to see what was out there that had been left on the table for the Dems that could be snatched away without excessive dummymander potential, or undue VRA risk, and without drawing ludicrous looking county chopping snakes, which admittedly the Texas Pubs in the past have been perfectly willing to do, but which creates poster child potential for laws to be passed against such aggressive gerrymanders that are so harsh on the eye. And this is what I came up with. Suggestions for further "improvement" are of course welcome. In that regard, I have this fantasy that NY and Texas and Illinois should do some non aggression pact, to tone all of this down. Yes, I know, the odds of that happening are zero. Local pols care about only themselves, not others far away.

This aggressive Pubmander iteration has 12 Dem CD’s (7 Hispanic, 2 Black, 1 White, 2 mixed - we love to minimize white Dem CD's), and 27 Pub CD’s (24 White, and 3 Hispanic). Hispanics are our friends, and we want to strive to give them the max, as long as it does not hurt the Pubs, and of course is legal under the VRA.

The map's aggressiveness poses some dummymander potential of course (I suspect TX-09 and TX-02, the ones that take an uncomfortably large bite out of Travis County to suck up the precincts outside the Travis County Dem vote sink, are the most susceptible to hitting the dummymander dust sooner or later), and 2 of the CD’s are marginal, particularly the one in north Dallas that stretches out East in a  elongated rectangle in a “desperate” attempt to Pub up), but that seems unavoidable absent some insane snake shapes.

I suspect the odds of this map being drawn by the Pubs is low, because it ignores Pub incumbent preferences. For example, my TX-09 goes into both Austin and the Houston area to absorb some “problem” precincts that need to be removed from other Pub designed CD’s to make them safer. What Pub is going to want to represent that mess?

The most “new and improved” feature of note is that the map creates a new Pub Hispanic CD (TX-12) that combines a bite of El Paso with the oil patch zone of Midland and Odessa. That allows my TX-10 to exploit the Pub trend in the Rio Grande Valley and vicinity more effectively, and TX-09 to be “liberated” to absorb some problem precincts in Austin and Ft. Bend County. To minimize VRA risk, TX-12 needs to be Hispanic, because “dumping” the El Paso area Hispanics outside the nested CD there into a white CD, when rural Hispanics are adjacent to it all the way to San Antonio, is risky. But then we found out that Ector County (Odessa), is majority HCVAP, and Midland also has a substantial number, and they are also nearer to El Paso as well. Adding massively Pub trending almost all Hispanic Maverick County to that CD (TX-12) gets it over the 50% HCVAP hurdle. Perfect! That way, the Pub Hispanic CD that goes into San Antonio, can snatch up the Pub’s new found Hispanic friends down in the Rio Grande Valley and San Antonio exurbs, while still staying majority HCVAP.

The map was designed to minimize VRA risk. Thus, two Dem Hispanic CD’s needed to be drawn in San Antonio. Not doing so would probably not fly with SCOTUS, since two compact Hispanic CD’s can be drawn there. The “problem” for the Pubs in San Antonio is that, unlike for example in the Rio Grande Valley and the West Texas oil patch, where they are much thicker on the ground, there are just not enough Hispanic Pubs in San Antonio to draw a CD which would be both Pub friendly and 50%+ HCVAP.

The major demographic wild card will be ascertaining what data base will be used by the courts to assess minority CVAP percentages.





https://davesredistricting.org/join/5b7274ea-37d2-4ad7-a893-7ba5c457511c




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Torie
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« Reply #12 on: April 02, 2021, 07:27:45 AM »



Got an 11D-28R map; the map below uses 2016 numbers.




The concept of gerrymandering away a second Dem seat in San Antonio was commented upon by me in my post above presenting my Pubmander. I think such an act is very vulnerable to a VRA challenge. As soon as it was clear that you could draw two compact 50%+ HCVAP Hispanic seats nested in Bexar County, it was game over for me.

In any event, congrats for drawing a thoroughly hideous map in every respect. TX Pubs will be proud of you for giving them something to fantasize about.
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Torie
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« Reply #13 on: April 04, 2021, 11:35:14 AM »
« Edited: April 04, 2021, 12:13:24 PM by Torie »

Having a CD built on growth in the Pub-leaning HCVAP population may not pass muster.

First one identifies whether a district must be drawn to meet VRA section 2 using the Gingles test: Is there a compact district with 50%+ HCVAP? Is the Hispanic population politically cohesive (does it mostly vote the same way)? Does the white population vote sufficiently together to defeat the preferred choice of the Hispanics in the area.

As long as the Hispanic population in an area is still strongly in favor of a Dem and the white population is Pub enough to defeat the Dem, then a 50% HCVAP CD is not necessarily sufficient to meet the VRA. Counting on a growing Pub fraction among Hispanics doesn't cut it until they are prevalent enough to make Hispanics no longer politically cohesive. Then the Gingles test no longer applies.


1. Where is the case that held illegal a 50% HCVAP CD that was (1) "compact," (2) not gerrymandered in any unreasonable way, (3) 80% of the Hispanic voters preferred a Democrat, (4) those voters could not elect a candidate of their choice, because 20% of the Hispanics voted Pub, and their relatively turnout percentages were low? A case with different percentages than mine that elucidate the underlying issue will be accepted. Smiley

2. Where is the case that held a 50% HCVAP CD was illegal where the Hispanics were legally entitled to a CD because of the 50% CVAP Gingles trigger, and where it was not something that looked outrageous, but was not performing due to low Hispanic turnout, and/or some Hispanics voting in Pub primaries?

3. Is there any case that dealt with the issue of playing the game of seeking out minority precincts that had a low percentage of CVAP's voting and avoiding those with higher CVAP turnouts, for partisan reasons? I noticed in Texas per the 2016 election results, that in some precincts Hispanic CVAP turnout was shockingly low. Ditto for the blacks as well to a lesser degree in some places. It has not been mentioned much, but doing Texas, I realized that playing the gerrymandering game involves seeking out such hostile to the gerrymanderer's party precincts that are low turnout. The best precincts of all for the Pubs are prison precincts, but it would be a very  easy lift for SCOTUS to hold that you cannot count prisoners not eligible to vote in CVAP figures.

4. Even if there is not such a case, yet, what I would anticipate is that where you can draw a compact minority CD, where the Gingles trigger has been met, particularly if it also hews to neutral redistricting metrics, what you cannot do is demonically change the lines around to get the CVAP down to 50% CVAP or whatever, and/or systematically seek out the lowest turnout precincts, so that it ceases to be performing, due to low minority turnout. I tend to doubt that has ever been done by the Pubs however. Historically they minority CVAP up, not down, to more effectively Dem vote sink. Which raises the question, that if you can draw a compact 50% HCVAP CD, but it is not performing, and no such compact performing Hispanic CD in fact can be drawn, do you need to draw it anyway? I do appreciate that if some erose monster were deemed "compact"under the Gingles test, and only that CD were performing, you would have to draw it. Less clear to me is whether or not if such CD were deemed "compact," but is nevertheless an obvious gerrymander by all other metrics, you have to draw something less gerrymandered that gets the HCVAP or BCVAP way down, but is still performing (a variant of the packing issue).
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Torie
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« Reply #14 on: April 04, 2021, 11:38:45 AM »

In other news, having read the Cooper case, and sought advice on the matter, I have concluded that my racially driven erose lines between the two Dem CD's that I drew in Dallas County are illegal, so the map I put up above will be switched out in the very near future. The map has been "fixed."
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Torie
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« Reply #15 on: April 05, 2021, 07:02:10 PM »

Does anyone think this map is a gerrymander?

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Torie
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« Reply #16 on: April 05, 2021, 07:19:20 PM »

All roads lead to the 38th, not the 37th, which is the Dem vacuum cleaner CD for the Pubs in this map.
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Torie
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« Reply #17 on: April 06, 2021, 08:29:14 AM »
« Edited: April 06, 2021, 09:04:31 AM by Torie »

I am highly skeptical that the performing Hispanic CD that I drew is sufficiently compact to be either required or legal. The case that dealt with the legality/necessity of a CD combing two Hispanic nodes in Chicago (the infamous ear muffs district) is below, and I quote the language that I think distinguishes that case from what is going on in the metro-plex. If a performing Hispanic CD can be drawn in Dallas County, that carefully separates the blacks and Hispanics, that are very segregated from each other in most places, that would probably be deemed “compact.” A CD like I drew where there are two separate Hispanic nodes separated by 10-15 miles of white neighborhoods, in two different counties, is another matter. Moreover, with the existing CVAP data in the DRA data base, a performing Hispanic CD could probably be drawn based on the Hispanic nodes entirely within Dallas County if eligible Hispanics voted in the same percentages as other ethnic groups. The opportunity is there if they just get out and vote. But they don't. I suspect however in the 2020 election they did vote in considerably greater numbers than before, albeit with the Pubs getting in most places a higher percentage share.

If the Hispanic CVAP percentages materially increase in Dallas County, as may well be the case, this matter will become moot. If not, and there still is no way to draw a performing CD in Dallas County, the Pubs should file a lawsuit for declaratory relief as to whether or not the crazed barbell CD that I drew is legally mandated, or something akin to it. The court may refuse to rule, but it should. There is also an issue as to whether Hispanics in this area are even a sufficiently cohesive voting block to even trigger Gingles at this point. The best argument that it might still be is not so much that whites will not vote for a Hispanic, but that blacks do not in a Dem primary.

“The [Hastert ] court made the following findings of fact to support its conclusion that the Chicago/Cook County Hispanic community was “sufficiently large and geographically compact to constitute a single district majority.” First, the 1990 census reported the Hispanic population in Chicago at 545,852, a 29.33% increase over the 1980 total. Second, “[m]ost of the Chicago/Cook County Hispanic population is clustered in two dense enclaves, one on Chicago's near northwest side and one on the near southwest side.” Third, the two enclaves are less than one mile apart at their closest point. Fourth, this separation resulted from exogenous physical and institutional barriers—specifically, the east-west Eisenhower Expressway, the University of Illinois–Chicago Circle campus, and various major medical institutions—and thus did not indicate the existence of two distinct communities.”

https://content.next.westlaw.com/Link/Document/FullText?findType=Y&serNum=1997171948&originatingDoc=I6a9efbe52aa511e1a84ff3e97352c397&refType=RP&originationContext=document&transitionType=DocumentItem&contextData=(sc.DocLink)&firstPage=true


Oh, one other thing. When it was drawn to my attention, that using existing DRA numbers, a 50% plus HCVAP could be drawn in the metro-plex (barely), I drew it (trying to minimize its erosity in both nodes, and then otherwise in the most Pub friendly manner possible, i.e., drawing a  more erose "highway bridge," in order for my heterodox Dem vote sink of TX-37 to get at more of  uber Dem precincts south of  downtown Ft. Worth which just happen to be almost all black). I then just gerrymandered the rest of the CD's in the area ignoring racial data, and only when done, checked to see what the BCVAP percentage was for the black CD. It was 56%. In my earlier map, where the black CD was entirely contained in Dallas County, it was 51%. You first gerrymander, and then check the racial percentages, to ascertain whether you might have a VRA problem, and adjust accordingly. One should also, if it does not degrade too much the objectives of the gerrymander, try to respect otherwise neutral redistricting principles wherever possible. And the gerrymanderers should be able to testify as to all of that under oath in court.

It continues to be shocking to me just how racially segregated lower SES blacks and Hispanics continue to be from each other in most places in the US where they both reside in large numbers. They seem as their numbers dramatically increase in an area to seek out white working class neighborhoods.

We continue to live in interesting times. May they go away soon!

For purposes of reference, below is the link to perhaps the most hideous Pubmander I have ever managed to draw, that I discuss above.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6aab77f0-a6a1-49c4-97ae-3ce0fb737322
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« Reply #18 on: April 06, 2021, 09:56:26 AM »
« Edited: April 06, 2021, 10:38:36 AM by Torie »

They is still in some quarters a misunderstanding of the VRA in some quarters that assumes that because one can draw an extremely gerrymandered 50% CVAP CD, that a performing minority CD must be drawn. I disagree. One prong to mandate that is such a CD must be reasonably compact, and that does not include wandering around chopping into disparate and dispersed city to pick up the needed minority voters. But I have said all I am going to say on that. Some seem to disagree, which is OK. We shall see.



Hi Torie - I know you promised not to say anymore, but could I ask you how what you said in the quote would relate to District 38 on this map? It sounds exactly like what you described. If you also had any comments on the VRA and my configuration in Bexar County I'd appreciate those.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::ce5db554-f503-450d-8419-cc3f7d66b22b


You need to go to your map on the DRA, and assuming it is already "published," you need to hit  the "share map" button in the top column, and then hit the copy button and paste it here. The link will have the word "join" in it. That said, even assuming your TX-38 is majority HCVAP, and further assuming a majority of the Hispanics vote Dem there (not clear that would be the case, but maybe), there are too many Hispanic Pubs there, and their turnout is way too low, to make the CD deemed performing Hispanic, so the VRA is not in play at all. No matter how you draw the lines, the CD will vote Pub. But if I could access the map, I could answer your question more definitively, to the extent anything about the VRA is definitive these days, absent something really egregious.
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Torie
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E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #19 on: April 10, 2021, 11:58:17 AM »
« Edited: April 10, 2021, 12:48:39 PM by Torie »

Fair maps for Texas? You must be kidding!

The 2019 CVAP numbers now allow a performing Hispanic CD to be drawn without a road bridge going all the way to downtown Ft. Worth and beyond, so that CD loses the Ft. Worth side of its barbell. But given that a performing Hispanic CD may be required under the VRA since a 50% HCVAP trigger CD can be drawn, the real estate TX-38 must cover on the map to be performing causes chaos in the existing design of the Pubmander, requiring drastic and extreme measures to be taken. I have every confidence however that the TX Pubs are up to the task. Another option of course is to give the Dems one more seat to avoid this kind of mess. We shall see just how acquisitive they will turn out to be.




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Torie
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #20 on: April 10, 2021, 05:43:04 PM »
« Edited: April 10, 2021, 05:48:03 PM by Torie »

Will TX-07 and TX-32 be conceded or baconmandered? Will Democrats get at least one new seat?

Will you have the numeral correct, it's one, but the integer is wrong, it's minus rather than plus. The map "gives" the Dems 12 seats, rather than their current 13, 3 each in the Metroplex, Houston, and the RGV, two in San Antonio (they are VRA protected so need to be there), and one Dem vote sink in Austin. The map is the reciprocal of what will happen in NYS, where the Pubs will be losing 4 seats, while gaining 4 in Texas. The parties of the two states should sign a non aggression pact, but since they will not, because of parochialism, it's war.

My TX-13 is particularly glorious. Don't you agree?


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Torie
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« Reply #21 on: April 10, 2021, 06:43:02 PM »
« Edited: April 10, 2021, 07:32:32 PM by Torie »

I've seen speculation that they might try to make a RGV district that's just over 50% Hispanic (for VRA purposes) but still leans Republican (thanks to the rightward shift of the RGV post-2020). Wonder how easy that would be to achieve.

That will not happen. It really isn't that feasible, and the Pubs want to protect Cuellar to boot (Laredo). Having said that, my TX-12 and TX-10 are majority HCVAP (both by design), and both safely Pub, particularly TX-12, which takes in the oil patch, where the percentage between the Hispanic population percentage and HCVAP is not that great. I assume the Hispanics in the oil patch have quite well paying jobs in the oil service industry, and are more or less assimilated, as second or third generation Hispanics or more.

Come to think of it, maybe they are thinking of drawing the TX-12 CD that I drew. It really needs to be drawn to avoid Gingles risk (in addition to my TC-10 CD, that "loses" its bite of El Paso to TX-12 to make it all happen). It also facilitates the larger goals of the Pubmander, by "unpacking" TX-12 of some excess Pubs, that can be deployed elsewhere to firm up other Pub designed seats. So it is an easy call for the Pubs to do it.
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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #22 on: April 10, 2021, 06:53:24 PM »

I've seen speculation that they might try to make a RGV district that's just over 50% Hispanic (for VRA purposes) but still leans Republican (thanks to the rightward shift of the RGV post-2020). Wonder how easy that would be to achieve.


Trump 2020 probably won what I label TX-08 by 10 points, but it is 62% HCVAP.
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Torie
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Political Matrix
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« Reply #23 on: April 10, 2021, 07:06:19 PM »
« Edited: April 10, 2021, 07:10:35 PM by Torie »

What is the minimum amount of seats that is VRA compliant?

There is no minimum number of seats based on population other than to set a maximum. The VRA requires the number of seats that equals the number of compact CD's that can be drawn that are at least 50% HCVAP, up to the theoretical maximum. The actual seats drawn can have lower HCVAP percentages provided they are performing Hispanic seats, which involves who votes in Dem primaries in general. The map I drew has 10 Hispanic performing seats, all 50%+ HCVAP with the exception of the performing Hispanic seat mostly in Dallas County that is 48.5% HCVAP (which is the maximum I think that can be drawn "compactly" and thus trigger the Gingles requirements). The theoretical maximum might be say 13 seats, if Hispanics are a third of Texas's population.
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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #24 on: April 10, 2021, 07:11:31 PM »
« Edited: April 10, 2021, 07:24:18 PM by Torie »

What is the minimum amount of seats that is VRA compliant?

There is no minimum number of seats based on population other than to set a maximum. The VRA requires the number of seats that equals the number of compact CD's that can be drawn that are at least 50% HCVAP, up to the theoretical maximum. The actual seats drawn can have lower HCVAP percentages provided they are performing Hispanic seats, which involves who votes in Dem primaries in general. The map I drew has 10 50%+ HCVAP seats (which is the maximum I think that can be drawn "compactly" and thus trigger the Gingles requirements). The theoretical maximum might be say 13 seats, if Hispanics are a third of Texas's population.

What is the possible maximum that can be drawn with 50% HCVAP.


10 I think in all probability, with my TX-38 a struggle to get there. That assumes you don't have wild Fajita strip action, that splits up my TX-07 zipping up to Austin, which may get one up to another 50% HCVAP CD (unlikely, but maybe possible). That would not be a "compact" CD, triggering the Gingles mandate.
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