AZ-08: April 24 general election (Update: Lesko-R wins by 4.72 points)

[Webnicz]

Rio Paseo appears to have also flipped to Tipirneni

[NOVA Green]

First batch of E-Day voting in. Margin will shrink, but not by enough.

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/988997248574001152

Do we know what precinct(s)?

Could make a big diff if they break it down how it should be done!!!!....    

Just based on a cursory look, they seem to be from strongly Republican precincts

How do we know which precincts are reporting?

Well, go to NYT's map and just move your cursor around until you find a precinct with a lot more votes in compared to the rest. Scroll over to Dusty Trail and compare it to the nearby precincts.

Pretty crude, but it works.

Yeah Dusty Trail is not only a pretty large precinct by LVs (7.1k '16), but also one the most heavily 'Pub precincts in CD-08 (66-28 Trump, 60-40 Arapaio)...

Not surprised to see that move the ED dial a bit in the 'Pub favor compared to many other precincts....

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Trumplicans on twitter doing everything they can to try and deny a blue wave will make their party's massacre even sweeter.

[Tender Branson]

Unlike the NYT results page, the Maricopa County page also shows write-in results and over/under votes:

  83.172 Lesko (R) - 52.6%
  74.253 Tipirneni (D) - 46.9%
       588 Write-Ins - 0.4%
       189 over/under votes - 0.1%

158.202 total votes cast 

Lesko currently ahead by 5.7 points.

[Tender Branson]

Another big batch has just came in (86/143 election-day precincts reporting):

  87.580 Lesko (R) - 52.3%
  78.841 Tipirneni (D) - 47.2%
       604 Write-Ins - 0.4%
       190 over/under votes - 0.1%

167.215 total votes cast  

Lesko currently ahead by 5.1 points.

[Tender Branson]

Lesko is actually losing the election-day vote against Tipirneni so far, but this will only lower her overall winning margin to some 4.5% in the end.

[Nyvin]

So Lesko will fall below 5% before the night is over....wow!

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.   
Debbie Lesko
Republican
87,580   52.6%   
Hiral Tipirneni
Democrat
78,841   47.4   
166,421 votes, 60% reporting (86 of 143 precincts)

[Matty]

Lol,  emerson will end up being fairly close to the final result. They had lesko +6

nice bounceback for the firm.

[Tender Branson]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.   
Debbie Lesko
Republican
87,580   52.6%   
Hiral Tipirneni
Democrat
78,841   47.4   
166,421 votes, 60% reporting (86 of 143 precincts)

You are not using the correct data source, just as an information.

Write-in and over/under votes are missing, therefore the percentages are wrong.

This is the correct source:

Another big batch has just came in (86/143 election-day precincts reporting):

  87.580 Lesko (R) - 52.3%
  78.841 Tipirneni (D) - 47.2%
       604 Write-Ins - 0.4%
       190 over/under votes - 0.1%

167.215 total votes cast  

Lesko currently ahead by 5.1 points.

https://recorder.maricopa.gov/electionresults

[Tender Branson]

Looking at the NYT precinct map, it seems most of the precincts that are left to be counted are in strong(er) Lesko areas.

So, Lesko's overall lead might remain above 5% after all is counted.

[Webnicz]

its been awhile since I last remember a dem leading the Election Day vote, another fun thing about Arizona politics, a conservative early vote and liberal eday vote!

[Matty]

An A+ R candidate is doing worse than Arpaio. Maricopa is going the way of Clark county

She is not A+

She is better than the candidates put up in Alabama and PA-18, but she has her issues, too.

[Tender Branson]

Let's not forget that the last 3 special elections (AL, PA-18, AZ-08) - which had huge swings to the Dems - all 3 involved a scandalous/racist Republican running or stepping down because of a sex scandal.

So, the swings to the Dems in these 3 elections might have been artificially higher than under normal circumstances.

Yet the swing under normal circumstances would still be D+10 or something ... enough for a blue wave in November.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Here's a good laugh

https://twitter.com/mike_Zollo/status/989001470031880193

[Tender Branson]

Based on the recent election results, I expect Dems to win the US House vote by about 8-12% in November, resulting in a narrow majority of seats.

But considering the ridiculous gerrymandering of seats in favour of Republicans, that margin is definitely needed and there's no room for error: Remember that in 2012, Democrats won the House popular vote by 1%, but Republicans won 54% of the seats in the House.

If the climate remains favourable, Democrats will also win the Senate (by defending all their own seats + picking up NV, AZ and TN).

[Tender Branson]

100% of precincts now reporting:

  91.390 Lesko (R)
  82.318 Tipirneni (D)
       615 Write-Ins
       190 over/under votes

174.513 total votes cast  

52.37% - Lesko (R)
47.17% - Tipirneni (D)
  0.35% - Write-Ins
  0.11% - over/under votes

Lesko wins by 5.2 points.

[new_patomic]

There might still be upwards of 17K ballots to be counted, because early ballots could still be mailed today.

Not that there's still a chance. Just, ya know, the ride never ends.

[Sestak]

She ended up above 5%?

[Tender Branson]

She ended up above 5%?

Yes, but there might be additional postal ballots left to count (those that were returned on election day).

But I'm not sure if they got already counted or not ...

[Virginiá]

Here's a good laugh

https://twitter.com/mike_Zollo/status/989001470031880193

Sheesh lol.

I spend almost 100% of my online political discussion in the Atlas community, so occasionally I forget just how dumb most people are when it comes to politics - even people who actually have a big interest in it. This guy seems like the kind that has a big interest in politics but is hopelessly biased and has literally zero interest in actually learning anything, so they just end up becoming this mindless hyper-partisan zombie who spends hours each day Liking fake news memes, tweeting about incorrect election results and trying to antagonize people.

[Adam Griffin]

Based on a measurement of [2016 congressional result & 2016 presidential result averaged], AZ-8 is the second-biggest congressional swing of the cycle (D+24), losing out only to AL (D+30).

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

And everyday is more confirmation of my realignment theories.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

She ended up above 5%?

Yes, but there might be additional postal ballots left to count (those that were returned on election day).

But I'm not sure if they got already counted or not ...

Steve Kornacki says they haven't been counted yet and won't be tabulated tonight.

[kph14]

Based on the recent election results, I expect Dems to win the US House vote by about 8-12% in November, resulting in a narrow majority of seats.

But considering the ridiculous gerrymandering of seats in favour of Republicans, that margin is definitely needed and there's no room for error: Remember that in 2012, Democrats won the House popular vote by 1%, but Republicans won 54% of the seats in the House.

If the climate remains favourable, Democrats will also win the Senate (by defending all their own seats + picking up NV, AZ and TN).

Since 2012, the maps in VA, FL and PA have changed. Republican retirements are a big factor and Democrats got some star recruits (Ojeda, Davis, Lamb) in red-leaning districts. In addition, Dems can’t really win big cities by more than the already did, they should gain in suburban and rural Midwest districts. My bold prediction is that a 5 point lead in the NPV would be enough for a thin majority.