A thread:
https://twitter.com/betelgeuse1922/status/1606249858926612485?s=20&t=VnQMiCU...2) Let's agree on the terms. "F**ked" means there is no chance left for some clever stunt to pull in the very end and save everyone. Whatever happens next, is happening and there is no undo button.
3) Russia exceeds expectations. It is prematurely f**ked. Experts were predicting the burst of violent crimes, the moment mobilized come back home. What wasn't predicted is that we don’t need anyone to come back - just to smuggle weapons for all the existing criminals.
4) New official police numbers show not just the increase in gun violence - it’s a literal weapon craze. Compared to 2021, Kurskaya oblast [bordering Ukraine] has a 675% raise in crimes with weapons. 675% IN A YEAR.
5) Moscow, the city filled with police and special forces - 203%. Most of the regions near the border are beyond 100% raise. And let me remind you these are official numbers of REPORTED crimes, aka numbers full of sh*t. We are f**ked beyond knowing the scale.
6) What does this mean? This means that an uncontrollable and untraceable stream of weapons is already happening, and the moment soldiers come home, poor, angry, wounded, and mentally crippled - the whole infrastructure is already built for them.
7) Some of them will come with the full understanding: "We were just the meat thrown at the battlefield for some crazy delusions of old rich men". Some of them will keep their dreams of being "a war hero with a lot of money". These dreams will break the moment they get home.
8.) We see that this war doesn't look like something positive for the masses. So the guys who come back, craving appreciation will receive quite a cold reception. The money they got will disappear in months. The trauma and anger will not.
9) These tendencies will come hand in hand with two other "friends": the drop in the price of human life and the demolition of the monopoly on violence. "Why shouldn't I kill, if everyone does and you can always avoid penitentiary by joining Wagner"?
10) And here you might say: "Don't worry - these criminals will be killed by Ukrainians, and quite a few of them will come back". And I would reply: - The quantity of those coming back is not what I look at, because they will not be the ones who commit the majority of crimes.
11) "War is a matter of the young" is a common concept. Not this one. Let me remind you, that it started with contract forces, with an average contractor being 26-28 years. Later they decided to mobilize people and focused once again on the post 27 y.o. men.
12) The accurate phrase should sound like "Violence is a matter of the young". The younger you are, the bigger are statistical chances for you to commit a violent crime. Young people have also less experience so they are more suggestible especially when it comes to bullsh*t.
13) What I expect from our bitter deformed survivors is to look for appreciation from people of their age groups. Most of them will find nothing but the desire to isolate themselves from anything or anyone war-related. Ex-soldiers will lower the bar until they find the audience.
14) Yes, I am leading you to the gang wars - ex-soldiers providing experience and connection, and youngsters becoming their foot soldiers. Isn't it ironic? Probably, until you think of the easiest targets - middle-class, who somehow managed to maintain some level of wealth.
15) And this IS ironic. The people who thought that was not their war, that they simply need to mind their business and support the "boys" will be in the first row -finally seeing who those boys are and what the real business is.
16) And the great irony of 2023 is gonna keep giving. Those thinking "that's just Putin, not Russia" will see Putin losing control, while things keep getting worse. [Ukrainian drone attack on] Ryazan airport? Mobilization age increase? Prigozhin sputtering clemencies like a genocidal Santa? Is this control?
17) It's hard for me to imagine that in 2023 Putin is gonna wake up and say: "Alinochka, I think I was a f**king idiot, let's make things differently from now on. Please, poke Valentina, I think this orgy was a bad idea too". He. Will. Keep. Losing. The grip.
18) Can it stay unnoticed by anyone? Come on, dude! It is noticed on EVERY F**KING LEVEL. Just look at... Drum roll... Russian sociological surveys. Yeah, those that mean basically nothing.
Well, they do. Just stop looking at the answers. Begin looking at the questions.
19) Look at these questions:
What do you think about the last year personally?
What do you think it meant to Russia?
What do you expect from the next year for Russia?
What do you expect from the next year for the world?
Who is the political figure of the year?
20) Those were asked by VCIOM [Russian Public Opinion Research Center] every year since the early 2000s. The same questions, year to year, for us to see the trend. None of these questions were asked this year. NONE. But we know people in Russia love Gazmanov [Russian patriotic pop musician, best known for
Made in the USSR]. Well, good to know.
21) Anyone remotely sane can see the collapse and these cynical opportunists inside the power structure are cruel, not dumb. 2023 will be the year of overwhelming paranoia and fights between different groups of interests.
22) Oh! Finally a good thing, they will fight each other and 'good russians' will take control. First stop, who? Secondly, I think, that the unifying paranoia over this scenario will be... Well... Unifying. 2023 in my opinion will be the year of unprecedented oppression.
23) And it will get harder than ever. I don't think any country wants to deal with this gun smuggling unstable bullsh**t, so borders and limitations will emerge for anyone Russia-related.
If someone lost their "Stay home" covid posters, these might come in handy again.
24) It might sound like I feel sorry for anyone here. No, not really. We caused so much pain and misery, we destroyed so many lives, we ignored every possible junction and slammed to this apocalyptic finale yelling "Yay, Crimea!!!". How should anyone expect a different outcome?
25) At the same point, the weaker Russia gets, the better it is for Ukraine and the rest of the world. If drowning in your own sh*t is the only way for us to accept the loss - let it be so, there is nothing more important than to end this war. Russia was given enough chances.
26) Next question - is it a bizarrely long call to action for everyone to flee? No. Ignoring, running, fleeing, and lying brought us here. We need to accept that we are f**ked and try not to fall any lower - there is always a possibility.
27) There are good people in this ruin. They can do something good. For some regions, it's a chance to finally break free from the failed state empire. For someone, it's a possibility to start from scratch. But it is not gonna be easy, fun, or gratifying.
28) And it shouldn't be. Not a single year including 2023 is gonna be the year of easy answers for us anymore.
Thread over. Now you know, why no one invites me to NY parties.
