Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[nicholas.slaydon]

thats just commie propaganda

Russia hasn't been communist for 31 years.

Russia wasn't communist 31 years ago either.

[Storr]

Interesting timing:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1605703372992135168?s=20&t=gVcyGIm...

In 2014, Rozogin published a book called Alaska Betrayed and Sold: The History of a Palace Conspiracy. Yes this something commonly talked about in Russian nationalist circles, that the Czar's sale of Alaska in 1867 was somehow fraudulent and thus Alaska rightfully belongs to Russia.

This isn't just some publicity seeking influencer, before being appointed head of Roscosmos, Rozogin was Russia's ambassador to NATO from 2008 to 2011.

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1605763128259620864?s=20&t=b_eUV-FW...

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/AZgeopolitics/status/1605864540016615426

[Antonio the Sixth]

Interesting timing:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1605703372992135168?s=20&t=gVcyGIm...

In 2014, Rozogin published a book called Alaska Betrayed and Sold: The History of a Palace Conspiracy. Yes this something commonly talked about in Russian nationalist circles, that the Czar's sale of Alaska in 1867 was somehow fraudulent and thus Alaska rightfully belongs to Russia.

This isn't just some publicity seeking influencer, before being appointed head of Roscosmos, Rozogin was Russia's ambassador to NATO from 2008 to 2011.

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1605763128259620864?s=20&t=b_eUV-FW...

the puns just write themselves here

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

(tweet)

Lukashenko is an awful leader, but in this case, I'm glad. Russia is already struggling enough in this war, having "allies" like Belarus that will just drag it down will hopefully end this war sooner rather than later. Then again, Belarus has always been just a puppet of Russia anyways, so maybe it doesn't make a difference.

It really gives me fascist Italy during WWII vibes. I wouldn't mind too much if Lukashenko ends up the same way Mussolini did...

[Torie]

This NYT article quoting American officials is quite emphatic that the war is headed to stalemate as Russia's army gets more skilled at defense and digs in. If that is the case, then the only play left is to continue the process of degrading Russia's economy and bankrupting it. The latter sentence is mine.

The article does refer to Ukrainian sources that they think it critical to cut Russian lines in the south. Unless they freeze to death or accidentally shoot each other in the interim, the cannon fodder that Putin rounded up plus the defensive trenches will begin to further buttress Russia's position in the spring. That however may not be possible, particularly given that Putin is now deferring to one general in care of the whole war who seems to know what he was doing, persuaded Putin to let him withdraw from Kherson, and then effected the quite complex evacuation in a way that impressed US authorities.

If the war does drag on and on, it then becomes an industrial arms race as the West tries to ramp up to produce something as prosaic as more ammunition, that outmatches the Russian-Iranian military complex's (that is not a typo) ability to do so on its side. High tech only gets one so far.

I regret this NYT cold shower is brought to you by a red avatar.   The red avatar does do a lot of paraphrasing because he is aware that the NYT is behind a paywall for most.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/21/us/politics/ukraine-russia-war-stalemate.html

Oh, regarding Hollywood's "proposal" above, Putin would snap that up in a second. My speculation is that short of erasing Ukraine from the face of the earth via being annexed to Russia, a perfectly acceptable consolation prize is to annex the parts where the Russian language is the common currency (about a third of the country perhaps), and if the more nationalistic parts of Ukraine then disappear by being absorbed by Poland or whatever and part of NATO, so be it. Yeah, the proposal of course is absurd. Among other things, despite rumors to the contrary, just like Anglophone countries, Slav countries are not fungible.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Copied from Handelsblatt:

The sanctions of the G7 industrialized countries are putting increasing pressure on Russian oil exports. According to data from the financial service Bloomberg and the think tank Bruegel, the volume of oil exports has fallen by 54 percent to about 1.6 million barrels a day since the introduction of an embargo on Russian crude oil.

On December 5, an EU embargo on Russian oil shipments by sea and a price cap came into effect. The data suggests that Russia is finding it increasingly difficult to divert crude oil originally destined for Europe to Asia. A month ago, European ports were still receiving 1.43 million barrels of Russian oil per day. In mid-December it was still 450,000 barrels per day – and the trend is falling.

Shame it took this long but progress is progress.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1605850295036047360
100k Russians in 1 year, Putin’s disastrous invasion has hit it’s climax 

[CumbrianLefty]

I see that some online Trumpist was raging over Zelensky not wearing a suit last night.

Nice to see they have their priorities right.

[Virginiá]

I see that some online Trumpist was raging over Zelensky not wearing a suit last night.

Nice to see they have their priorities right.

These people were always destined to complain, and the fact that they spent it on the lack of a suit is a testament to how disingenuous they are. They had to whine about something.

[Torie]

Copied from Handelsblatt:

The sanctions of the G7 industrialized countries are putting increasing pressure on Russian oil exports. According to data from the financial service Bloomberg and the think tank Bruegel, the volume of oil exports has fallen by 54 percent to about 1.6 million barrels a day since the introduction of an embargo on Russian crude oil.

On December 5, an EU embargo on Russian oil shipments by sea and a price cap came into effect. The data suggests that Russia is finding it increasingly difficult to divert crude oil originally destined for Europe to Asia. A month ago, European ports were still receiving 1.43 million barrels of Russian oil per day. In mid-December it was still 450,000 barrels per day – and the trend is falling.

Shame it took this long but progress is progress.

Way back when, I read that Russia depended on Western oil service companies to keep its oil wells working, and that their departure put Russia at risk that its production capacity would slowly degrade due to lack of competent maintenance. Is there any evidence that that is happening, or what is the story? A corollary to that is the inability to being new operating oil wells online, to offset production declines due to wells reaching the end of their useful life.

[Virginiá]

(thread)

https://twitter.com/sommervilletv/status/1605887743422144512

a human story for once

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/bopanc/status/1605914839423098880

Although I do generally agree with Twitter's trusty OSINT / war loss counter - the problem isn't as severe and more easily solvable if we factor in total combined industrial output across all possible producers:

https://twitter.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1605951061872762880

I think the one hiccup is that at least until recently, NATO has been extremely slow to actually issue long-term munitions contracts. Hard to say why, but it's crystal clear at this point that the US & NATO are not treating the Ukraine war with nearly the same urgency they would as a conflict against their own. In some ways they do, but in other ways, like production capacity, they aren't. I would normally say, that's fine I guess, Ukraine isn't part of NATO, but everyone keeps saying they are in this until Ukraine wins, so if that is the case, why wouldn't they rush to secure long-term ammunition supplies as soon as possible??

[Torie]

One would assume that the odds that Russia will attack NATO countries directly because they are low on arms supplies are next to zero. So yes, it seems like a red herring.

[Virginiá]

One would assume that the odds that Russia will attack NATO countries directly because they are low on arms supplies are next to zero. So yes, it seems like a red herring.

Yeah, I feel like that goes without saying at this point. Russia is a hostile country on a warpath right now, but Putin isn't stupid nor suicidal. Attacking NATO would do nothing but drastically increase the speed and scale of Russian losses. They simply aren't capable of waging a successful war against NATO anymore and likely haven't been since at least the end of the Cold War.

Any weapons the US has squirreled away for a future war with Russia should be used now and re-stocked when able. To drain Russia's capacity for war now is to protect NATO and everyone else in the future.

[Torrain]

The response of the hard-right to Zelenskyy's address has been something.

From this nonsense:
https://twitter.com/RepBoebert/status/1605736487152017408
To just outright antisemitism.
https://twitter.com/floragaramvolgy/status/1605776144984182785

[Logical]

We're going help Ukraine and make Russia pay for it folks.
https://twitter.com/AndrewDesiderio/status/1605984424717193216

[Storr]

"As we interviewed victims’ relatives, we collected their phone numbers and checked if they were in the database. A chilling pattern emerged: soldiers routinely used the phones of victims to call home to Russia, often only hours after they were killed."

The article appears to be unpaywalled, at the moment at least:
https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1605861415973257219?s=20&t=b_eUV-FWCECnB7S...

[Lord Halifax]

To just outright antisemitism.
https://twitter.com/floragaramvolgy/status/1605776144984182785

It refers to Ukraine banning the Russian Orthodox Church, "Zelenskyy has banned an entire ancient Christian denomination in Ukraine and then seized churches and then thrown priests into jail."

[Storr]

Interesting timing:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1605703372992135168?s=20&t=gVcyGIm...

In 2014, Rozogin published a book called Alaska Betrayed and Sold: The History of a Palace Conspiracy. Yes this something commonly talked about in Russian nationalist circles, that the Czar's sale of Alaska in 1867 was somehow fraudulent and thus Alaska rightfully belongs to Russia.

This isn't just some publicity seeking influencer, before being appointed head of Roscosmos, Rozogin was Russia's ambassador to NATO from 2008 to 2011.

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1605763128259620864?s=20&t=b_eUV-FW...

the puns just write themselves here

https://twitter.com/ItsArtoir/status/1605935329411637250?s=20&t=b_eUV-FWCECn...

[President Johnson]

A traitor within the German intelligence agency who sent classified material to Russia has been arrested today.

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1605982914382020617

[Storr]

A traitor within the German intelligence agency who sent classified material to Russia has been arrested today.

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1605982914382020617

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1606053211529367552?s=20

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

[Person Man]

The odometer rolls over against Russia.

[Cassius]

We're going help Ukraine and make Russia pay for it folks.
https://twitter.com/AndrewDesiderio/status/1605984424717193216

“Those have been worked out” ie it’s the US government and the US government will take what it will.