Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Woody]

Been away from this thread for a week.

It's interesting how a few weeks ago people were saying Bakhmut would fall any day now. Russia's made gains in that area but Bakhmut is still resisting now. How many more weeks will we have "Bakhmut will fall any day now" before we finally see it happen? Will we still be having this same conversation in March?

Nobody said that.

Anyways, I think it's okay to make predictions at this stage, as most of the roads leading to the city is under fire control or soon under Wagner control. Likely Bakhmut will fall around mid-February. Safe to say the AFU will withdraw next month to other lines.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1620134108520411136?cxt=HHwWgMDTrenY7_ssAAAA

[2952-0-0]

Instead, I will merely reiterate my prior response to your inane comment, that this is simply you crying internally that the release of Abrams and leopard tanks plus f-16s could be a major game changer in driving back the vicious invading Force you've habitually cheered on from the sidelines as a proxy for your own open Han supremacist goal of seeing Taiwan reconquered because, as you've quite explicitly and verbatim stated, you firmly believe might makes right.

Correction: might makes right as long as I don't have to make any personal sacrifice. People with that mindset equate a bigger map of their nation the same way they cheer on a sports team - something that comes at zero cost to them other than screaming at the TV and buying overpriced merch.

That's why you see the same Russians who wave Z flags, run to the border when the draft was announced. It's also why in China, the top shills for the CCP and its policies do so from the comfort of their homes in the decadent western liberal democracies they denounce. We call these people "offshore patriots".

[2952-0-0]

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-readies-2-bln-plus-ukraine-aid-package-with-longer-range-weapons-sources-2023-01-31/

https://mobile.twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1620563635876798464

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1620557916242575362?s=20&t=PYeEvK...

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-readies-2-bln-plus-ukraine-aid-package-with-longer-range-weapons-sources-2023-01-31/

https://mobile.twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1620563635876798464

Thus putting to rest any notion of a Belarus offensive again (not like it was serious to begin with but still)

[Storr]

Kadyrov literally betrayed his people and helped crush those who were fighting for Chechnya's freedom. He is the last person who has any right to speak of it.

I agree. His argument in the video that Chechnya couldn't feed, clothe, and fund public projects itself is incredibly weak.

There's a reason no nation's heroes or founders ever said: "I'd like for my homeland to be independent and free, but we get lots of money from our occupiers. So independence is not possible at this time."

[Middle-aged Europe]

I can't believe I'm saying this, buy Kadyrov makes a good point. Europe and the West ignored Chechnya in the 90s to avoid worsening relations with and angering the recently established Russian Federation.

Yes, towards the end the West avoided Chechnya because it became a haven for Islamic extremists and terrorists. But, it became so after it received no help from the West and only received any from Islamic fundamentalists and wealthy Gulf oil families.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1620383222025850881?s=20&t=PYeEvK...

Like it or not, but Chechnya isn't and wasn't a sovereign nation and therefore it also hadn't a legal right of self-defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter. That's how the rules of international law work. When Russia invaded Ukraine last year they broke international law. Had NATO supported Chechnya militarily the West would have broken international law.

Ramzan Kadyrov doesn't care about international law. News at 11.

[2952-0-0]

I agree. His argument in the video that Chechnya couldn't feed, clothe, and fund public projects itself is incredibly weak.

There's a reason no nation's heroes or founders ever said: "I'd like for my homeland to be independent and free, but we get lots of money from our occupiers. So independence is not possible at this time."

To be fair, when the Soviet Union was on its last legs, the Party bosses-turned-nationalist leaders of many republics were not very keen on full independence, because they were afraid the new nations couldn't pay their bills. The August Coup then forced their hands anyways.

To me, it's shocking that he's even mentioning independence as if it was a desirable goal at all. It must be a sign that Kadyrov no longer fears Putin's wrath and can openly brag about a desire to undo the act that brought Putin to power in the first place.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Kadyrov literally betrayed his people and helped crush those who were fighting for Chechnya's freedom. He is the last person who has any right to speak of it.

I agree. His argument in the video that Chechnya couldn't feed, clothe, and fund public projects itself is incredibly weak.

There's a reason no nation's heroes or founders ever said: "I'd like for my homeland to be independent and free, but we get lots of money from our occupiers. So independence is not possible at this time."

Yeah, exactly. This is what every Quisling says: "Oh, I'd love to fight for our freedom, I'm a true patriot, but the cost would be too high!" And frankly, it would be a fair point when uttered by anyone else. But when you end up actively profiting off your collaboration with the occupier, you lose every right to call yourself a patriot. Kadyrov and his goons have used Putin's support as a way to entrench their own power in Russia. They couldn't give less of a sh*t about Chechnya.

[The Mikado]

I agree. His argument in the video that Chechnya couldn't feed, clothe, and fund public projects itself is incredibly weak.

There's a reason no nation's heroes or founders ever said: "I'd like for my homeland to be independent and free, but we get lots of money from our occupiers. So independence is not possible at this time."

To be fair, when the Soviet Union was on its last legs, the Party bosses-turned-nationalist leaders of many republics were not very keen on full independence, because they were afraid the new nations couldn't pay their bills. The August Coup then forced their hands anyways.

To me, it's shocking that he's even mentioning independence as if it was a desirable goal at all. It must be a sign that Kadyrov no longer fears Putin's wrath and can openly brag about a desire to undo the act that brought Putin to power in the first place.

I mean, he still venerates his dad and his soldiers still torture people into screaming "Ahmet is the strongest" etc. He never forgot what his dad fought for, nor did he forget his dad switching sides for power as Russia's puppet which he inherited and enjoys to this day.

[pppolitics]

US plans to send Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB) which has a range of 94 mi/150 km.

That would put all of occupied Ukraine except Crimea in range.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-readies-2-bln-plus-ukraine-aid-package-with-longer-range-weapons-sources-2023-01-31/

[jaichind]

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-politics-893a2f22a73c68162c6cb3bbd62efe91

"War’s longest battle exacts high price in ‘heart of Ukraine’"

“Manpower is less of a Russian problem and, in some ways, more of a Ukrainian problem, not only because the casualties are painful, but they’re often ... Ukraine’s best troops,” said Lawrence Freedman, a professor emeritus of war studies at King’s College London.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-politics-893a2f22a73c68162c6cb3bbd62efe91

"War’s longest battle exacts high price in ‘heart of Ukraine’"

“Manpower is less of a Russian problem and, in some ways, more of a Ukrainian problem, not only because the casualties are painful, but they’re often ... Ukraine’s best troops,” said Lawrence Freedman, a professor emeritus of war studies at King’s College London.

https://mobile.twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1620409293353918464
https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1620803104387260416

[Lord Halifax]

US plans to send Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB) which has a range of 94 mi/150 km.

That would put all of occupied Ukraine except Crimea in range.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-readies-2-bln-plus-ukraine-aid-package-with-longer-range-weapons-sources-2023-01-31/

Does anyone know when they might be available? It seems that a lot of the new weapons will be delivered too late to really matter in the next phase of the war, which may be the decisive one.

[Virginiá]

US plans to send Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB) which has a range of 94 mi/150 km.

That would put all of occupied Ukraine except Crimea in range.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-readies-2-bln-plus-ukraine-aid-package-with-longer-range-weapons-sources-2023-01-31/

Does anyone know when they might available? It seems that a lot of the new weapons will be delivered too late to really matter in the next phase of the war, which may be the decisive one.

There was an article a little while ago that quoted industry analysts expectations at around 9 months from when the contract is issued, and I think that was for only a modest amount of bombs, and many more would follow sometime in 2024 (at this point, probably mid-late year). You also have to consider that the speed at which the DoD issues contracts, even with just a single possible bidder, is horrendously slow and could take months on its own.

I suppose it's possible the US govt could throw some money at this and try to speed up production, considering GLSDB is made from existing rocket motors and glide bombs, but that's wishful thinking IMO unless any other info about such an effort comes out.

I honestly don't understand why they didn't do this months ago. According to reports, they've been considering it for months. The foot-dragging is unreal. These people just sit in their offices for incredible amounts of time stewing and struggling to make these decisions, despite the fact that Russia's threats have been proven hollow every step of the way.

[CumbrianLefty]

Though that hollowness only became truly apparent in recent months tbf.

I agree there is little reason for foot dragging now.

[Torie]

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/02/01/world/russia-ukraine-news#russias-bombardment-grows-even-as-its-next-steps-remain-unclear

This story depresses me. The takeaways are:

1. Russia has 350K troops in Ukraine (more than twice the number as the initial invasion force), and another 150K-250K in reserve. The Special Military Operation looks more like full scale war to me. I had no idea such numbers were in play.

2. Russia is and will have difficulty adequately provisioning and arming its much expanded horde of invaders.

3. While the consensus is that Russia wants more Ukrainian land, nobody is quite sure just which land is slated to be in its next course to devour.


I hope it does not prove that the West dithered too long before getting around to training and equipping Ukraine with the more lethal weapons of war that seem to be needed to contend with containing Putin's throwing all his chips on the table to reverse the tide of war in his favor. And it saddens and sickens me with what will be facing Ukraine in the next few months. While so far it has been hell for them in the conflict zone, there are worse places than hell.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/02/01/world/russia-ukraine-news#russias-bombardment-grows-even-as-its-next-steps-remain-unclear

This story depresses me. The takeaways are:

1. Russia has 350K troops in Ukraine (more than twice the number as the initial invasion force), and another 150K-250K in reserve. The Special Military Operation looks more like full scale war to me. I had no idea such numbers were in play.

2. Russia is and will have difficulty adequately provisioning and arming its much expanded horde of invaders.

3. While the consensus is that Russia wants more Ukrainian land, nobody is quite sure just which land is slated to be in its next course to devour.


I hope it does not prove that the West dithered too long before getting around to training and equipping Ukraine with the more lethal weapons of war that seem to be needed to contend with containing Putin's throwing all his chips on the table to reverse the tide of war in his favor. And it saddens and sickens me with what will be facing Ukraine in the next few months. While so far it has been hell for them in the conflict zone, there are worse places than hell.

It sucks that Ukraine (especially its civilians) are going to have to go through such hell but nothing in the article points to anything that should suggest that Putin’s new offensive is going to result in anything other than sending 100k+ more Russian troops to their deaths

[All Along The Watchtower]

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/02/01/world/russia-ukraine-news#russias-bombardment-grows-even-as-its-next-steps-remain-unclear

This story depresses me. The takeaways are:

1. Russia has 350K troops in Ukraine (more than twice the number as the initial invasion force), and another 150K-250K in reserve. The Special Military Operation looks more like full scale war to me. I had no idea such numbers were in play.

2. Russia is and will have difficulty adequately provisioning and arming its much expanded horde of invaders.

3. While the consensus is that Russia wants more Ukrainian land, nobody is quite sure just which land is slated to be in its next course to devour.


I hope it does not prove that the West dithered too long before getting around to training and equipping Ukraine with the more lethal weapons of war that seem to be needed to contend with containing Putin's throwing all his chips on the table to reverse the tide of war in his favor. And it saddens and sickens me with what will be facing Ukraine in the next few months. While so far it has been hell for them in the conflict zone, there are worse places than hell.

It sucks that Ukraine (especially its civilians) are going to have to go through such hell but nothing in the article points to anything that should suggest that Putin’s new offensive is going to result in anything other than sending 100k+ more Russian troops to their deaths

Accelerationism for Putin’s downfall?

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1620807308312981506?s=20&t=PxyDdFtw...

[Storr]

LGBT Neo-Nazi Satanists hold a traditional Orthodox funeral:


https://twitter.com/ZarinaZabrisky/status/1620569163097059328?s=20&t=kj_fr-A...

Slavutych was the city built to rehouse residents of Pripyat after the Chernobyl nuclear disaster. Despite bing only 8km from the Belarusian border, it managed to survive a siege when Russia invaded from the north trying to reach Kyiv.

[jaichind]

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2023/02/01/Israeli-PM-Netanyahu-says-considering-military-aid-to-Ukraine-mediation-

"Israeli PM Netanyahu says considering military aid to Ukraine, mediation"

Looks like Netanyahu might be open to sending Iron Dome to Ukraine.

[Cassius]

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2023/02/01/Israeli-PM-Netanyahu-says-considering-military-aid-to-Ukraine-mediation-

"Israeli PM Netanyahu says considering military aid to Ukraine, mediation"

Looks like Netanyahu might be open to sending Iron Dome to Ukraine.

Isn't a lot of the technology used in the Iron Dome produced by American companies, thus also acquiring US government approval presumably?

[lfromnj]

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2023/02/01/Israeli-PM-Netanyahu-says-considering-military-aid-to-Ukraine-mediation-

"Israeli PM Netanyahu says considering military aid to Ukraine, mediation"

Looks like Netanyahu might be open to sending Iron Dome to Ukraine.

Broke: American russia proxy war.
Woke: Iran Israel Proxy war