Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[pppolitics]

If we recursively apply all the logic that led up to sending Abrams tanks and now likely F-16 would not the end result be the headline "Biden and Pentagon warming up to the idea of sending strategic nuclear weapons to Ukraine"?

And what would be the point (of sending strategic nuclear weapons)?

...needlessly killing random civilians?

What Ukraine needs are precision weapons such as ATACMS to target the Russian military.

[Badger]

If we recursively apply all the logic that led up to sending Abrams tanks and now likely F-16 would not the end result be the headline "Biden and Pentagon warming up to the idea of sending strategic nuclear weapons to Ukraine"?

That would be based but no there is a world of difference between giving Ukraine modern/better tanks and airplanes and nukes

Don't take Jaichind seriously.  He's just upset and help this providing Advanced Armament will harm the surrogate imperialist Army he's rooting for.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

You do realize that people are dying right?

I know that more than almost anyone here, as I have relatives in occupied areas I haven't heard from since day one. I have no idea what happened to them.

I cope with this by making light of the pain these weapon deliveries will bring to the Russian military and its murderers. What else should I do?

[jaichind]

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/01/29/how-russia-dodges-oil-sanctions-on-an-industrial-scale

Economist: "How Russia dodges oil sanctions on an industrial scale"

Of course, this does mean Russia has to sell at a discount.   But to think sanctions can stop Russia from selling A or buying B was always not going to work.  It was always going to be Russia will sell at discount and buy at a premium.   Fits with the doctrine "money will always find a way" and "always bet on greed"

[Hollywood]

https://twitter.com/NewsUkrainenews/status/1620079207455023104

NEWS
Russian Offensive 'Imminent' as 200,000 More Troops Headed to Ukraine: ISW
BY AILA SLISCO ON 1/30/23 AT 11:44 PM EST

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NEWS
RUSSIA
RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR
UKRAINE
WAR

Russia is preparing for an "imminent" new offensive on Ukraine, while 200,000 more Russian troops may soon be joining the war effort, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

An ISW report published on Monday says that Ukrainian, Western and Russian sources agree that "Russia is preparing for an imminent offensive" as the war nears its one-year mark. The report notes that NATO Secretary Jens Stoltenberg said on the same day that Russian President Vladimir Putin, who "retains his maximalist goals in Ukraine," was planning to mobilize 200,000 or more new troops to join the fight.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian military official Ivan Tymochko reportedly said that Russian forces were "strengthening" in Ukraine's Donbas region in anticipation of the offensive, which Russia was launching "due to increasing domestic pressure for victory" in the war.

Sources now preparing the public for the eventual dispatch of 200,000 Russian Troops into Ukraine.  Ukrainian military official Ivan Tymochko reportedly said that Russian forces were already "strengthening" in Ukraine's Donbas region in anticipation of the offensive.  Yes.  This has already been happening. At least 50,000 Troops that were sprinkled around the Eastern, and this freed Veterans have been freed-up to concentrate assault son Zaporizhzhia and Southern Donetsk.   The convicts that helped take Ukraine were just gravy.  

"Stoltenberg's and Tymochko's statements support ISW's previous forecast that Russian forces are setting conditions to launch an offensive effort, likely in Luhansk Oblast, in the coming months," ISW said, while adding that Russian military bloggers had indicated "that the Russian information space is setting conditions for and anticipating a Russian offensive."  
https://www.newsweek.com/russian-offensive-imminent-200000-more-troops-headed-ukraine-isw-1777697

I think we'll see Russian's launch these forces some of these Troops in early February,  early April, and late May.  We'll have a pretty good idea in Spring about Russian strength from the second round of mobilization, and the RAF's chances of victory.    

[Woody]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1620357830489575425?cxt=HHwWgsDU9Z...
https://mobile.twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1620357122583314432
https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1620214274072387584

[jaichind]

Latest 2023 IMF GDP estimates.

2023 IMF estimates vs my latest investment bank surveys for 2023 GDP

               IMF     investment bank
USA          1.4%           0.5%
PRC          5.2%            5.1%
Eurozone  0.7%            0.0%
Japan       1.4%            1.3%
Russia      0.3%           -2.8%
UK          -0.6%           -0.9%



IMF is more positive than my investment bank averages.  The big outlier would be Russia where IMF now expects Russia's economy to grow in 2023.  If that is the case this adds to the argument that Russia should be able to continue this war indefinitely and wait out the collective West in a battle of wills.

[jaichind]

NBC poll

Americans are split on providing more funding and weapons to Ukraine, with 49% believing Congress should do this, versus 47% saying it shouldn’t.

Its getting close to 50/50 on this issue. Expect Trump to jump in this issue more and more. 

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/HatRabbit17/status/1620305201700941827

[jaichind]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/31/business/economy/russia-sanctions-trade-china-turkey.html

"Russia Sidesteps Western Punishments, With Help From Friends"

NYT blames third parties helping Russia get around sanctions for Russia's likely outperformance in terms of GDP in 2022.  IMF has Russia GDP growth in 2022 to be -2.2% which is even better than Putin's projection of -2.5%.  This is especially impressive especially when Russia just recently revises up 2021 GDP growth from 4.7% to 5.6%.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1620413935731232773
https://mobile.twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1620409645801283584
https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1620192422264446976
Russia is trying to stabilize the Kreminna line but in turn Ukraine is gaining momentum again toward Svatove

[jaichind]

https://www.yahoo.com/now/ukraine-needs-200-multipurpose-aircraft-121300234.html

"Ukraine ‘needs up to 200 multipurpose aircraft, F-16 most likely candidate to replace Soviet-era jets’"

Ukraine list of needs now include 200 F-16s

[CumbrianLefty]

Ukraine will always ask for more stuff as long as the war is continuing, that is how it works.

[jaichind]

Ukraine will always ask for more stuff as long as the war is continuing, that is how it works.

I agree ergo I said

If we recursively apply all the logic that led up to sending Abrams tanks and now likely F-16 would not the end result be the headline "Biden and Pentagon warming up to the idea of sending strategic nuclear weapons to Ukraine"?

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://www.yahoo.com/now/ukraine-needs-200-multipurpose-aircraft-121300234.html

"Ukraine ‘needs up to 200 multipurpose aircraft, F-16 most likely candidate to replace Soviet-era jets’"

Ukraine list of needs now include 200 F-16s

Why not? The F-16s the US & other allies like Denmark and Norway are currently retiring as the F-35 enters service seem like they'd work just fine. Too bad so many of the parts from the F-14s were all ground up to prevent Iran from using them as spares: the Phoenix would be great for intercepting Russian bombers before they could launch cruise missiles.

[Badger]

Ukraine will always ask for more stuff as long as the war is continuing, that is how it works.

I agree ergo I said

If we recursively apply all the logic that led up to sending Abrams tanks and now likely F-16 would not the end result be the headline "Biden and Pentagon warming up to the idea of sending strategic nuclear weapons to Ukraine"?

Yes, you said it. And it was equally stupid then as it is today. "More" does not remotely begin to equate " fundamentally destabilizing" yes, as any sensible person understands like Cumberland Lefty that as long as Russia continues its unprovoked imperialist Invasion and war crimes spree throughout ukraine, Ukraine will ask the West for more and more and better Conventional Weapons like f-16s and leopard tanks, etc. However, that does not even begin to remotely suggest they would ask, let alone ever receive, nuclear weapons.

Instead, I will merely reiterate my prior response to your inane comment, that this is simply you crying internally that the release of Abrams and leopard tanks plus f-16s could be a major game changer in driving back the vicious invading Force you've habitually cheered on from the sidelines as a proxy for your own open Han supremacist goal of seeing Taiwan reconquered because, as you've quite explicitly and verbatim stated, you firmly believe might makes right.

[Woody]

From Mariupol:

"Restoration of Mariupol and everyday life - 31.1.23"

[GALeftist]

Ukraine will always ask for more stuff as long as the war is continuing, that is how it works.

I agree ergo I said

If we recursively apply all the logic that led up to sending Abrams tanks and now likely F-16 would not the end result be the headline "Biden and Pentagon warming up to the idea of sending strategic nuclear weapons to Ukraine"?

No. This is because the reason people were initially reluctant to provide aid in the form of tanks and planes was due to a risk of escalation. However, nuclear weapons are the reason that escalation is bad to begin with. There must therefore be some reason other than potential escalation that use of nuclear weapons is bad (said reason is left as an exercise for the reader). As such, even if one dismisses escalation as a risk entirely, nuclear weapon use would presumably still not be desirable. Hope this helps!

[Storr]

I can't believe I'm saying this, buy Kadyrov makes a good point. Europe and the West ignored Chechnya in the 90s to avoid worsening relations with and angering the recently established Russian Federation.

Yes, towards the end the West avoided Chechnya because it became a haven for Islamic extremists and terrorists. But, it became so after it received no help from the West and only received any from Islamic fundamentalists and wealthy Gulf oil families.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1620383222025850881?s=20&t=PYeEvK...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I can't believe I'm saying this, buy Kadyrov makes a good point. Europe and the West ignored Chechnya in the 90s to avoid worsening relations with and angering the recently established Russian Federation.

Yes, towards the end the West avoided Chechnya because it became a haven for Islamic extremists and terrorists. But, it became so after it received no help from the West and only received any from Islamic fundamentalists and wealthy Gulf oil families.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1620383222025850881?s=20&t=PYeEvK...

Jeremy Corbyn didn't ignore it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Kadyrov literally betrayed his people and helped crush those who were fighting for Chechnya's freedom. He is the last person who has any right to speak of it.

[Woody]

Kadyrov literally betrayed his people and helped crush those who were fighting for Chechnya's freedom. He is the last person who has any right to speak of it.

TBF him and his father changed sides during the Second Chechen War when the likes of Raduyev, Basayev, foreign Islamists and money from the Gulf turned their priorities from independence during the first war, to full-fledged Wahhabist emirate - Spanning not only Chechnya

[Storr]

"While trying to be sensitive to the Ukrainian concerns, the Russian leaders believe that Ukraine is “our main destabilizing factor.” Yegor Gaidar [First Deputy Prime Minister, at the time] believes that Russian-Ukrainian issues will take a long time to be fully resolved but assures Bush that there would be no “Yugoslav-type case in Russian-Ukrainian relations.”

The assurance that there would be no "Yugoslav-type case" between Russia and Ukraine feels haunting with hindsight.


https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1620501319361658880?s=20&t=PYeEvKRM...

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1620504025862144001?s=20&t=PYeEvKRM...

[The Mikado]

Been away from this thread for a week.

It's interesting how a few weeks ago people were saying Bakhmut would fall any day now. Russia's made gains in that area but Bakhmut is still resisting now. How many more weeks will we have "Bakhmut will fall any day now" before we finally see it happen? Will we still be having this same conversation in March?

[Storr]

"While trying to be sensitive to the Ukrainian concerns, the Russian leaders believe that Ukraine is “our main destabilizing factor.” Yegor Gaidar [First Deputy Prime Minister, at the time] believes that Russian-Ukrainian issues will take a long time to be fully resolved but assures Bush that there would be no “Yugoslav-type case in Russian-Ukrainian relations.”

The assurance that there would be no "Yugoslav-type case" between Russia and Ukraine feels haunting with hindsight.

Gaidar specifically says "there are also problems with the Russian language in Ukraine", which we all know has been as a vehicle which Russia has used to justify its meddling and violence in Ukraine.

Crimea is even mentioned by Gaidar as being the place where Russians in Ukraine "mostly" live. Crimea came up after President Bush asked "who are the rest?" once he was told Ukraine is only "73% Ukrainian" by Vladimir Lukin, the Russian Ambassador to the US, and that rest was "mostly Russian".



https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1620501319361658880?s=20&t=PYeEvKRM...

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1620504025862144001?s=20&t=PYeEvKRM...

The summary didn't mention the "our main destabilizing factor" quote was by Yeltsin!

"There are 11 million ethnic Russians in Ukraine. They live in the east on the Russian border and Russians are the majority in Crimea. They could vote to join Russia. So, I don't think Ukraine will take any sharp turns due to this fact. This is off the record -- our main destabilizing factor is Ukraine."