New Hampshire Primary (January 23) Megathread

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Is Haley likely to win any counties in NH?

She already has lol

She's won *towns* but counties seems too early to call.

[soundchaser]

Van Jones once again on one again on CNN, saying how it's a warning sign for Democrats that Republicans are "not afraid of Biden" and that they're okay with putting Trump up despite his issues.

I guarantee Republican voters who are still with Trump don't care whether or not they're afraid of Biden or not. These are the people who believe Trump won in 2020 and will beat whoever is the Dem nominee.

If there’s one thing that unites posters of all stripes, it’s Van Jones being perennially wrong.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Is Haley likely to win any counties in NH?

She already has lol

Those are towns not counties

[wbrocks67]

47k in. ~16% of the vote.

Trump +8, 54-46

[heatcharger]

Manchester - 37% reporting

Biden - 994 - 36.9%
Phillips - 927 - 34.4%
Write-in* - 597 - 22.2%
Williamson - 176 - 6.5%

*Presumably they've tabulated write-in votes for Biden in certain precincts. Obviously Team Biden should hope that the other unprocessed write-ins are also for Biden. That would be alarming if not. There was some efforts to write-in "Ceasefire" from activists.

I don't imagine 600 write-ins there are all 'ceasefire'

Wait where are you getting this? There's only 254 'other write-ins' statewide right now.

https://decisiondeskhq.com/new-hampshire-presidential-primary-results/

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

A new category just popped up seperate from "Unprocessed Write-Ins", "Other Write-ins".

So I imagine "Other" are other write-in names and "Unprocessed" is Joe.

Exactly. I know a few people who wrote in from the river to the sea in the D primary, we can't be acting like all the write-ins are for Biden.

[GeorgiaModerate]

When is the needle coming online?

Probably not until after the last polls close at 8pm EST.

[wbrocks67]

Interesting depending whether you believe most of the anti-Biden voters would be in safe blue areas or more swing-y areas.

https://twitter.com/norwood270/status/1749949538280804530

The whole premise of the Haley/Phillips campaigns was to do well with Independent voters. Not with partisan voters. It's not a winning strategy, because most primaries are closed, but it gives them a unique selling proposition of some sort.

No, the premise of the Phillips campaign was to find Democrats who don't like Biden.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Is Haley likely to win any counties in NH?

Grafton and Cheshire are possibilities

[EastwoodS]

I did not predict this race cause I'm not that into primaries. But These results are telling me to trust polls instead of vibes, which we have been told is more accurate than literal polling.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's amazing how he calls even the elections that he wins unfair and fraudulent.

He’s obviously just bragging. “Democrats and independents are allowed to vote on who the Republican nominee should be - and I’m still winning!”

And of course, he's wrong - registered Democrats aren't allowed to vote in the Republican primary here.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Is Haley likely to win any counties in NH?

She already has lol

Those aren't counties, they're municipalities. NH only has 10 counties.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Seabrook goes to Trump 72-28, which makes sense for people whose primary political opinion is "I hate Massachusetts in general and Boston in particular"

[Pres Mike]

I really hope Phillips gets under 20%, I want to deny him "victory"

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Seabrook - the most southeasterly town in NH. It's surrounded by upscale beach communities and suburbs in the Seacoast region, but Seabrook itself is a trashy dump of a beach town with druggies and a power plant. Fully in, Trump got 72%.

[Gass3268]

Manchester - 37% reporting

Biden - 994 - 36.9%
Phillips - 927 - 34.4%
Write-in* - 597 - 22.2%
Williamson - 176 - 6.5%

*Presumably they've tabulated write-in votes for Biden in certain precincts. Obviously Team Biden should hope that the other unprocessed write-ins are also for Biden. That would be alarming if not. There was some efforts to write-in "Ceasefire" from activists.

I don't imagine 600 write-ins there are all 'ceasefire'

Wait where are you getting this? There's only 254 'other write-ins' statewide right now.

https://decisiondeskhq.com/new-hampshire-presidential-primary-results/

Based on other towns that have already counted their write-ins, Biden appears to be getting almost all of them.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Interesting depending whether you believe most of the anti-Biden voters would be in safe blue areas or more swing-y areas.

https://twitter.com/norwood270/status/1749949538280804530

The whole premise of the Haley/Phillips campaigns was to do well with Independent voters. Not with partisan voters. It's not a winning strategy, because most primaries are closed, but it gives them a unique selling proposition of some sort.

No, the premise of the Phillips campaign was to find Democrats who don't like Biden.

And Independent voters of course. It's NH. It's not a closed primary.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Prediction:

Trump - 52%.
Haley - 42%
DeSantis - 6%. 

Should have stuck with this prediction lol.

[heatcharger]

I really hope Phillips gets under 20%, I want to deny him "victory"

Phillips is easily clearing 20%. The question is more about 25% or 30% at this point.

[wbrocks67]

I really hope Phillips gets under 20%, I want to deny him "victory"

Phillips is easily clearing 20%. The question is more about 25% or 30% at this point.

He's at 21% right now. Why would he gain 5-10% by the end? You keep saying stuff with no evidence backing it up.

[Pres Mike]

I really hope Phillips gets under 20%, I want to deny him "victory"

Phillips is easily clearing 20%. The question is more about 25% or 30% at this point.

He's currently at 21.2%

[wbrocks67]

Trump is up by 10 now.

[Senator Incitatus]

Prediction:

Trump - 52%.
Haley - 42%
DeSantis - 6%. 

Should have stuck with this prediction lol.

Based on the map, this may be an underestimate.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

There's a correlation between Haley's performance and how blue a town is, but what's an even slightly stronger correlation is a community's income and how Haley is doing. There are wealthier swing towns or lean-Republican towns that she's doing better in than some light blue mill towns. Trump truly is the candidate of the uneducated. Populism is cancer.

[oldtimer]

I did not predict this race cause I'm not that into primaries. But These results are telling me to trust polls instead of vibes, which we have been told is more accurate than literal polling.

Indeed the Exit Polls do look wrong, this isn't the Trump +3-4 lead it looks like a Trump +12.

They overestimated Haley a bit in Iowa too, they might weight college whites to strongly in their samples.