New Hampshire Primary (January 23) Megathread

[wbrocks67]

Not entirely sure what average Wasserman is using, but it's clear that Haley isn't just breaking 40%, she's shattering it. It's not a winning number, but it probably would have been if DeSantis was still a candidate....

Yeah, not sure about that. Don't think she's "shattering" it.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Why would Democrats vote for Haley in a primary? Wouldn't you want Biden to have the weakest possible opponent in the fall? That is unquestionably Trump.

Haley doesn't have 91 criminal indictments and over half the country violently hating her guts. If Haley were nominated election would end up being a referendum on Biden.

Did none of the Democrats pay attention to 2022 or are they still just shell shocked and terrified by 2016? Seriously, Trump and his brand of politics are weak in a general election.

2024 polls do not show a year like 2022. Remember, Trump and his candidates always do the best when Trump himself is on the ballot.

Furthermore, I and many other left leaning voters just want a contest where we know the country will be OK regardless of the result. No one needs to spend 4 days worrying about PA again.

[Birdish]

Dean Phillips is winning Farmington, but I imagine that's because they haven't included any write-ins yet(which is at 0).

[wbrocks67]

Haley is up 9 in Concord with 91% in. This should be the epicenter of crossover voting.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Early results look like Trump +10 or more statewide, right?

Respectable results for Dean Phillips so far, 25-30%.

Marianne Williamson should just drop out, she was awful, so Dean Phillips can make it a 2-person race against Biden down the road. Not that he'll win, but he can try running up the score in later contests.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1749950152381493252?s=20

Honestly he should get banned from X for making a call when people are still voting. This is really getting tiring.

[Crumpets]

Why would Democrats vote for Haley in a primary? Wouldn't you want Biden to have the weakest possible opponent in the fall? That is unquestionably Trump.

Haley doesn't have 91 criminal indictments and over half the country violently hating her guts. If Haley were nominated the election would end up being a referendum on Biden, his age, the economy, etc.

Did none of the Democrats pay attention to 2022 or are they still just shell shocked and terrified by 2016? Seriously, Trump and his brand of politics are weak in a general election.

I can't speak for everyone, but if I were to vote in a Republican primary, I'd go for Haley just to do my part in trying to bring about the day when we never have to hear about what Trump is up to ever again. Also she is currently out-polling Trump against Biden, but I doubt that's very representative of how a general election between the two would actually look.

[wbrocks67]

You could barely say Williamson is running a "campaign" but if she can barely get 3-4% in New Hampshire, it's time to end this charade.

Also should be noted that some polls had her at close to 10%...

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1749950152381493252?s=20

Honestly he should get banned from X for making a call when people are still voting. This is really getting tiring.

Depends on whether the margin is larger than the expected vote in polls still to close.

[Steve from Lambeth]

Respectable results for Dean Phillips so far, 25-30%.

Those aren't "respectable results." Those are winning numbers (source: Dean Phillips).

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1749950152381493252?s=20

Honestly he should get banned from X for making a call when people are still voting. This is really getting tiring.

Elon Musk doesn't ban people for predicting Trump wins.

[wbrocks67]

Early results look like Trump +10 or more statewide, right?

Respectable results for Dean Phillips so far, 25-30%.

Marianne Williamson should just drop out, she was awful, so Dean Phillips can make it a 2-person race against Biden down the road. Not that he'll win, but he can try running up the score in later contests.

Joe Biden is getting 70-75% of the vote right now and he wasn't even on the ballot. How would Phillips "run up the score" in the rest of states where he IS on the ballot?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Why would Democrats vote for Haley in a primary? Wouldn't you want Biden to have the weakest possible opponent in the fall? That is unquestionably Trump.

Haley doesn't have 91 criminal indictments and over half the country violently hating her guts. If Haley were nominated the election would end up being a referendum on Biden, his age, the economy, etc.

Did none of the Democrats pay attention to 2022 or are they still just shell shocked and terrified by 2016? Seriously, Trump and his brand of politics are weak in a general election.

Because they think Trump is going to end democracy, and don't want any risk at all because they are afraid he will create a dictatorship if he wins.

[oldtimer]

Early results look like Trump +10 or more statewide, right?

Respectable results for Dean Phillips so far, 25-30%.

Marianne Williamson should just drop out, she was awful, so Dean Phillips can make it a 2-person race against Biden down the road. Not that he'll win, but he can try running up the score in later contests.

Looks like a possible Biden 65, Phillips 27, others 8, very early though.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Republican-leaning Farmington is fully in. Trump gets over 70%. Haley only up in super blue / super college educated towns. Not good for Haley.

[Lief 🗽]

IMO Haley is on track to lose by 15-5%. It's hard to say but she's doing close-ish to what she has to do in the liberal/moderate areas, but getting annihilated in the Trumpy areas.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1749950152381493252?s=20

Honestly he should get banned from X for making a call when people are still voting. This is really getting tiring.

Lol, who cares

[Mike88]

10% in:

52.8% Trump
46.5% Haley

[Birdish]

Why would Democrats vote for Haley in a primary? Wouldn't you want Biden to have the weakest possible opponent in the fall? That is unquestionably Trump.

Haley doesn't have 91 criminal indictments and over half the country violently hating her guts. If Haley were nominated the election would end up being a referendum on Biden, his age, the economy, etc.

Did none of the Democrats pay attention to 2022 or are they still just shell shocked and terrified by 2016? Seriously, Trump and his brand of politics are weak in a general election.

Because they think Trump is going to end democracy, and don't want any risk at all because they are afraid he will create a dictatorship if he wins.

It's partially that, but a lot of moderates would rather just have a normal republican over Trump, or Biden for that matter.

[Middle-aged Europe]

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Super blue artsy Peterborough is fully in. Haley 57% - Trump 42%. Not enough for her.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1749950152381493252?s=20

Honestly he should get banned from X for making a call when people are still voting. This is really getting tiring.

You seem to be having difficulty accepting Nikki lost and she's gonna lose big hehe

[Holmes]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1749950152381493252?s=20

Honestly he should get banned from X for making a call when people are still voting. This is really getting tiring.

He’s not a media outlet. His declarations are meaningless.

[wbrocks67]

Haley is up 7 in Concord with 95% in. Call it a day here.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

It's amazing how he calls even the elections that he wins unfair and fraudulent.