New Hampshire Primary (January 23) Megathread

[PeteB]

Why would Democrats vote for Haley in a primary? Wouldn't you want Biden to have the weakest possible opponent in the fall? That is unquestionably Trump.

Haley doesn't have 91 criminal indictments and over half the country violently hating her guts. If Haley were nominated the election would end up being a referendum on Biden, his age, the economy, etc.

Did none of the Democrats pay attention to 2022 or are they still just shell shocked and terrified by 2016? Seriously, Trump and his brand of politics are weak in a general election.

I can't speak for everyone, but if I were to vote in a Republican primary, I'd go for Haley just to do my part in trying to bring about the day when we never have to hear about what Trump is up to ever again. Also she is currently out-polling Trump against Biden, but I doubt that's very representative of how a general election between the two would actually look.

I would say there are two reasons to vote for Haley if you are a Democrat.  One is short term strategy, tying Trump to the primary challenge, so he cannot focus on Biden.  The other one is more societal - hoping is nice but how secure are you that Biden will beat Trump in the fall? And if Biden loses, I am sure most Democrats would rather have President Haley, not President Trump.

[Tekken_Guy]

Why would Democrats vote for Haley in a primary? Wouldn't you want Biden to have the weakest possible opponent in the fall? That is unquestionably Trump.

Haley doesn't have 91 criminal indictments and over half the country violently hating her guts. If Haley were nominated the election would end up being a referendum on Biden, his age, the economy, etc.

Did none of the Democrats pay attention to 2022 or are they still just shell shocked and terrified by 2016? Seriously, Trump and his brand of politics are weak in a general election.

Aside from not wanting to gamble with a wannabe dictator, there’s a possible case to be made that Trump is actually tougher for Biden to beat than Haley because he can bring out low-propensity WWC voters like no other candidate, and the potential third party spoiler run dividing the GOP.

[Tintrlvr]

Why would Democrats vote for Haley in a primary? Wouldn't you want Biden to have the weakest possible opponent in the fall? That is unquestionably Trump.

Haley doesn't have 91 criminal indictments and over half the country violently hating her guts. If Haley were nominated the election would end up being a referendum on Biden, his age, the economy, etc.

Did none of the Democrats pay attention to 2022 or are they still just shell shocked and terrified by 2016? Seriously, Trump and his brand of politics are weak in a general election.

Because they think Trump is going to end democracy, and don't want any risk at all because they are afraid he will create a dictatorship if he wins.

It's partially that, but a lot of moderates would rather just have a normal republican over Trump, or Biden for that matter.

Lastly, I think, even if Haley wins tonight, she is deeply unlikely to overcome the obstacles needed to become the nominee (cf. John McCain 2000), so a Democrat wishing solely to maximize Biden's chances at reelection would probably prefer she win now to lengthen the Republican primary process and cause general chaos in the party.

I would vote for Haley in the primary if I lived in New Hampshire.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

All the white trash mill towns are giving Trump Assad margins lol.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1749950152381493252?s=20

Honestly he should get banned from X for making a call when people are still voting. This is really getting tiring.

He’s not a media outlet. His declarations are meaningless.

He definitely acts like one

[wbrocks67]

Interesting depending whether you believe most of the anti-Biden voters would be in safe blue areas or more swing-y areas.

https://twitter.com/norwood270/status/1749949538280804530

[heatcharger]

Manchester - 37% reporting

Biden - 994 - 36.9%
Phillips - 927 - 34.4%
Write-in* - 597 - 22.2%
Williamson - 176 - 6.5%

*Presumably they've tabulated write-in votes for Biden in certain precincts. Obviously Team Biden should hope that the other unprocessed write-ins are also for Biden. That would be alarming if not. There was some efforts to write-in "Ceasefire" from activists.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Haley putting up some ok margins in the bluest of towns, but the actual raw number of votes is comparatively low because they are so blue. The math just isn't there for her. I don't even know if she will finish within 10% of him.

[John Dule]

Haley is up 7 in Concord with 95% in. Call it a day here.

Gimme some context for this

[EJ24]

I just find Marianne Williamson getting wrecked particularly satisfying because I had to listen to Cenk Uygur and Kyle Kulinski tell me how weak Biden was in a primary and that Marianne would have crushed him in a debate.

Turns out she can't even crush.....*checks notes*.....write-ins.

[Ferguson97]

Haley is up 7 in Concord with 95% in. Call it a day here.

Gimme some context for this

D+30 city, she should be doing much better.

[Birdish]

A new category just popped up seperate from "Unprocessed Write-Ins", "Other Write-ins".

So I imagine "Other" are other write-in names and "Unprocessed" is Joe.

[Lief 🗽]

Haley is up 7 in Concord with 95% in. Call it a day here.

Gimme some context for this

She needs to be winning Concord by at least 15-20 points to have a chance.

[wbrocks67]

Van Jones once again on one again on CNN, saying how it's a warning sign for Democrats that Republicans are "not afraid of Biden" and that they're okay with putting Trump up despite his issues.

I guarantee Republican voters who are still with Trump don't care whether or not they're afraid of Biden or not. These are the people who believe Trump won in 2020 and will beat whoever is the Dem nominee.

[oldtimer]

Interesting depending whether you believe most of the anti-Biden voters would be in safe blue areas or more swing-y areas.

https://twitter.com/norwood270/status/1749949538280804530

Where is the surprise in that ?

Haley/Biden doing best in the most Democrat areas is no mystery.

[Pres Mike]

Not entirely sure what average Wasserman is using, but it's clear that Haley isn't just breaking 40%, she's shattering it. It's not a winning number, but it probably would have been if DeSantis was still a candidate....

So far, the results are mostly from cities and town. Where Republicans are more moderate and where Democrats are (ones who might have voted for Haley)

The Republican vote is still mostly in rural areas which haven't reported in yet. The ones that have, Trump is leading by a lot. Haley getting 40% is hard, 45% even harder.

[wbrocks67]

Manchester - 37% reporting

Biden - 994 - 36.9%
Phillips - 927 - 34.4%
Write-in* - 597 - 22.2%
Williamson - 176 - 6.5%

*Presumably they've tabulated write-in votes for Biden in certain precincts. Obviously Team Biden should hope that the other unprocessed write-ins are also for Biden. That would be alarming if not. There was some efforts to write-in "Ceasefire" from activists.

I don't imagine 600 write-ins there are all 'ceasefire'

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Is Haley likely to win any counties in NH?

[Mopsus]

It's amazing how he calls even the elections that he wins unfair and fraudulent.

He’s obviously just bragging. “Democrats and independents are allowed to vote on who the Republican nominee should be - and I’m still winning!”

[Birdish]

Van Jones once again on one again on CNN, saying how it's a warning sign for Democrats that Republicans are "not afraid of Biden" and that they're okay with putting Trump up despite his issues.

I guarantee Republican voters who are still with Trump don't care whether or not they're afraid of Biden or not. These are the people who believe Trump won in 2020 and will beat whoever is the Dem nominee.

Those voters aren't afraid of Biden because they believe his win wasn't legitimate and Trump already beat him.

[wbrocks67]

Manchester - 37% reporting

Biden - 994 - 36.9%
Phillips - 927 - 34.4%
Write-in* - 597 - 22.2%
Williamson - 176 - 6.5%

*Presumably they've tabulated write-in votes for Biden in certain precincts. Obviously Team Biden should hope that the other unprocessed write-ins are also for Biden. That would be alarming if not. There was some efforts to write-in "Ceasefire" from activists.

I don't imagine 600 write-ins there are all 'ceasefire'

Wait where are you getting this? There's only 254 'other write-ins' statewide right now.

[Malarkey Decider]

Is Haley likely to win any counties in NH?

She already has lol

[Malarkey Decider]

When is the needle coming online?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Manchester - 37% reporting

Biden - 994 - 36.9%
Phillips - 927 - 34.4%
Write-in* - 597 - 22.2%
Williamson - 176 - 6.5%

*Presumably they've tabulated write-in votes for Biden in certain precincts. Obviously Team Biden should hope that the other unprocessed write-ins are also for Biden. That would be alarming if not. There was some efforts to write-in "Ceasefire" from activists.

I don't imagine 600 write-ins there are all 'ceasefire'

All the write ins are for Cenk Uygur. #Cenkslide is real!

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Interesting depending whether you believe most of the anti-Biden voters would be in safe blue areas or more swing-y areas.

https://twitter.com/norwood270/status/1749949538280804530

The whole premise of the Haley/Phillips campaigns was to do well with Independent voters. Not with partisan voters. It's not a winning strategy, because most primaries are closed, but it gives them a unique selling proposition of some sort.