New Hampshire Primary (January 23) Megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Please use this megathread for NH primary discussions rather than starting separate threads for different points.  Thank you.

[emailking]

NBC poll that just came out has him up 16, could be it for Haley if that holds.

[Whale Psychiatrist]

Unfortunately I stand by my prediction that Haley needed a (relatively) strong 2nd in Iowa to be able to win in NH. Redban's prediction is probably her ceiling at the moment.

[Sir Mohamed]

I'll wait to next week for an "official" prediction, though expect Trump to win by 12-15 pts. so far.

[wbrocks67]

I'm curious how long it will take to count the write-ins and what Dem turnout will even look like. I mean, I assume if we get a result that's like 80% Write-Ins, you can guarantee that at least ~75% of those are for Biden.

So I assume for a few hours at least we'll likely just have "Write-In" as the winner until the names are actually counted.

[PoliticsWatcher1]

NBC poll that just came out has him up 16, could be it for Haley if that holds.

Yeah, it’s only downhill for her after NH and SC, she will lose both by considerable margins.

[MT Treasurer]

Thanks, those NH threads were really confusing.

For Haley to have a chance in the state, this will quickly need to turn into the classic NH thing of NH women outvoting NH men and being aware that they need to outvote them. That not only requires turnout to be off the charts, but margins approaching those of a general election. They absolutely despise Trump, we’ve established that, and they have no reason to turn out for the Democratic primary, but will they bring themselves to turn out for a woman who can’t even bring herself to call out Trump on his pathetic insecurities? If she had gone after Trump from the get-go (think of something like "Look, we’re used to men hurling insults like that, and it’s almost always because they feel like they have to compensate for something. But I’m afraid that’s their problem, or well, maybe their wife's as well, but let us stick to the issues"), she would have had a better shot in this state. Like DeSantis, she’s made the mistake of sort of criticizing Trump without really offending him and exposing him as ineffective, insecure, and impotent. Human beings can sense weakness, and broken men like Trump thrive on it.

I think NH women are really far gone for the GOP and the state is def headed the way of CT politically, but they like turning out for women who take the fight to men (e.g. Jeanne Shaheen), not those who cave in in a way that reeks of surrender. It’s very possible that their hatred of Trump is so visceral that they will overlook this (the national spotlight being on NH does make it more likely that they use this opportunity to stick it to Trump), but it’s not something I would bet on. Even if she gets 70% of them to turn out, it would not be enough given Trump's advantage with men. The general is a different matter, of course — Trump stands no chance in NH and the formula works again.

Either way, NH is not in any way representative of anything and Haley doesn’t have a path to the nomination even if she carries NH.  

[ShadowRocket]

Another Trump victory but Haley holds him to the upper single digits.

[emailking]

NH could carry NH.

[Yelnoc]

I'm curious how long it will take to count the write-ins and what Dem turnout will even look like. I mean, I assume if we get a result that's like 80% Write-Ins, you can guarantee that at least ~75% of those are for Biden.

So I assume for a few hours at least we'll likely just have "Write-In" as the winner until the names are actually counted.

Interesting point.

I am very curious to see how well Phillips and Williamson do. Not because I think either of them is an actual threat to Biden, but because their performance will help us gauge just how upset Democratic voters are by his handling of the middle east crisis.

[The Mikado]

I'm curious how long it will take to count the write-ins and what Dem turnout will even look like. I mean, I assume if we get a result that's like 80% Write-Ins, you can guarantee that at least ~75% of those are for Biden.

So I assume for a few hours at least we'll likely just have "Write-In" as the winner until the names are actually counted.

Given it'll be the only race on the ballot I doubt Write ins will take too long, especially given Dem primary turnout will be abysmal.

About 60,000 people voted in the 2012 Dem primary (Obama got 82%). A pretty good benchmark for turnout for uncompetitive Dem primary at same time as competitive GOP one.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I predict that Biden doesn't crack 60% on the Democratic side.

[The Mikado]

I predict that Biden doesn't crack 60% on the Democratic side.

60's basically my par for Biden given the circumstances (him being a write in and a lot of New Hampshireite politicos angry that he's trying to kill the NH first in the nation primary).

Basically I think something like:

Below 55%: Pretty bad outcome.
55-60%: Mildly disappointing but fine. No one's going to freak out about a Biden 58 Phillips 26 Williamson/Other 16 result.
60-65%: Mildly better than expected but nothing to brag about.  A Biden 63 Phillips 22 Williamson/Other 15 result would just about shut up Dean Phillips, though.
Above 65%: Huge overperformance given circumstances. Would basically end all talk about Phillips and Williamson.

[wbrocks67]

Should we expect an exit poll on the Dem side?

[South Dakota Democrat]

Should we expect an exit poll on the Dem side?

I hope so.

[The Mikado]

Should we expect an exit poll on the Dem side?

I wouldn't expect it. It's possible but Dem turnout will be microscopic compared to the GOP turnout (there could easily be 5x people voting on the GOP side) and they might have trouble getting a good sample.

[Banana Republican]

Thanks, those NH threads were really confusing.

For Haley to have a chance in the state, this will quickly need to turn into the classic NH thing of NH women outvoting NH men and being aware that they need to outvote them. That not only requires turnout to be off the charts, but margins approaching those of a general election. They absolutely despise Trump, we’ve established that, and they have no reason to turn out for the Democratic primary, but will they bring themselves to turn out for a woman who can’t even bring herself to call out Trump on his pathetic insecurities? If she had gone after Trump from the get-go (think of something like "Look, we’re used to men hurling insults like that, and it’s almost always because they feel like they have to compensate for something. But I’m afraid that’s their problem, or well, maybe their wife's as well, but let us stick to the issues"), she would have had a better shot in this state. Like DeSantis, she’s made the mistake of sort of criticizing Trump without really offending him and exposing him as ineffective, insecure, and impotent. Human beings can sense weakness, and broken men like Trump thrive on it.

I think NH women are really far gone for the GOP and the state is def headed the way of CT politically, but they like turning out for women who take the fight to men (e.g. Jeanne Shaheen), not those who cave in in a way that reeks of surrender. It’s very possible that their hatred of Trump is so visceral that they will overlook this (the national spotlight being on NH does make it more likely that they use this opportunity to stick it to Trump), but it’s not something I would bet on. Even if she gets 70% of them to turn out, it would not be enough given Trump's advantage with men. The general is a different matter, of course — Trump stands no chance in NH and the formula works again.

Either way, NH is not in any way representative of anything and Haley doesn’t have a path to the nomination even if she carries NH.  

On point as always. Nikki Haley's problem is that the mere fact that she is a woman is not enough for angry NH women. Just ask the likes of Kelly Ayotte. She was a woman too, just like Haley. But they threw her out anyway. Maybe Haley would do better if she expressed more anger at Trump and his behavior, she could form a connection with NH voters that way. Haley has nothing to lose, it is worth a try, her only chance (insofar as she even ever had one) is to change the nature of the electorate in an unprecedented way.

[Harlow]

Haley will probably win some towns in the southeast suburbs, and the major cities/college areas (Concord, Manchester, Keene), as well as western towns Kasich did well in in 2016. But outside of that, Trump will sweep the map.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

I think we'll get 250.000 votes on the Republican side and 50.000 on the Democratic side.

I think not less than 200k and no more than 300k for Republicans.

For Democrats, it could be as low as 30k, but as high as 100k, with many write-in votes for Biden.

I am not sure if write-in-Biden manages to win NH next week, but it's possible. There's a possibility that we'll get a total number of write-in votes cast on election night, without any names being counted first. But 99% of the total number will be Biden write-ins.

If the results are 42% Phillips, 36% "write-ins", 16% Williamson and 6% other candidates - we'll know that Biden received about 35% in NH.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I think we'll get 250.000 votes on the Republican side and 50.000 on the Democratic side.

I think not less than 200k and no more than 300k for Republicans.

For Democrats, it could be as low as 30k, but as high as 100k, with many write-in votes for Biden.

I am not sure if write-in-Biden manages to win NH next week, but it's possible. There's a possibility that we'll get a total number of write-in votes cast on election night, without any names being counted first. But 99% of the total number will be Biden write-ins.

If the results are 42% Phillips, 36% "write-ins", 16% Williamson and 6% other candidates - we'll know that Biden received about 35% in NH.

Why do you believe Biden will do poorly on New Hampshire?

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/rickklein/status/1747829676146377198?t=qL5AL5utO6di2LzeFWzg_...

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Prediction:

Trump - 52%.
Haley - 42%
DeSantis - 6%. 

[oldtimer]

Prediction:

Trump - 52%.
Haley - 42%
DeSantis - 6%. 

My prediction too.

[Eraserhead]

Honestly more interested in the results from the bizarre Democratic Primary.

[Eraserhead]

I think we'll get 250.000 votes on the Republican side and 50.000 on the Democratic side.

I think not less than 200k and no more than 300k for Republicans.

For Democrats, it could be as low as 30k, but as high as 100k, with many write-in votes for Biden.

I am not sure if write-in-Biden manages to win NH next week, but it's possible. There's a possibility that we'll get a total number of write-in votes cast on election night, without any names being counted first. But 99% of the total number will be Biden write-ins.

If the results are 42% Phillips, 36% "write-ins", 16% Williamson and 6% other candidates - we'll know that Biden received about 35% in NH.

Nah, should be considerably lower than that.

Btw, who do you people think will get the most write-ins other than Biden? I would guess Sanders or possibly even Trump.