New Hampshire Primary (January 23) Megathread
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Author Topic: New Hampshire Primary (January 23) Megathread  (Read 17500 times)
Lief 🗽
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« Reply #375 on: January 23, 2024, 07:18:54 PM »
Looking more like the polls than the exit polls so far...
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #376 on: January 23, 2024, 07:19:06 PM »
It's so weird that New Hampshire decided to make townships in the parts of the state that are literally unpopulated because they're on top of a mountain.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #377 on: January 23, 2024, 07:19:14 PM »
Quote from: AncestralDemocrat. on January 23, 2024, 07:18:15 PM


... that would be a Trump blowout for NH standards. Which completely contradicts his previous tweet.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #378 on: January 23, 2024, 07:19:59 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🗽 on January 23, 2024, 07:18:54 PM
Looking more like the polls than the exit polls so far...

I mean, we don't really know what the breakdown is. You could easily have it split 50/50 with GOP/Independents but Trump blowing her out of the water with GOP and a tighter race among Independents.
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #379 on: January 23, 2024, 07:20:02 PM »


Joe you've shocked the nation.
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bilaps
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« Reply #380 on: January 23, 2024, 07:20:15 PM »
Trump won 460 votes in 2016 in Hillsborough, today he won 860.
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« Reply #381 on: January 23, 2024, 07:20:26 PM »
All the evidence is pointing toward a "respectable" Haley loss, which doesn't change anything in terms of the eventual winner of the R primary but I think does at least deflate some of the  more hackish R talking points, such as that there are actually voters being drawn to Trump specifically because of his arrests.
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #382 on: January 23, 2024, 07:20:54 PM »
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Vosem
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« Reply #383 on: January 23, 2024, 07:21:08 PM »
I don't know if we're on track for a Trump call right when polls close at 8 (possible), but I think we're pretty easily on track for one before 9.
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Mike88
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« Reply #384 on: January 23, 2024, 07:21:15 PM »
4% in:

52.6% Trump
46.9% Haley
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oldtimer
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« Reply #385 on: January 23, 2024, 07:21:23 PM »
Quote from: AncestralDemocrat. on January 23, 2024, 07:18:15 PM


I kinda agree.

That Manchester result on CNN pointed to a Trump 10 maybe 15% lead, but still early.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #386 on: January 23, 2024, 07:21:26 PM »
Pretty crazy to think of NH's GOP primary in 2016 and what it meant for Trump vs. tonight. Like, the coalitions within the party have changed so much even with it still just being a Trump vs not Trump election.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #387 on: January 23, 2024, 07:21:43 PM »
Concord is barely Haley +10 with 80% in. That seems... awful for her.
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Birdish
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« Reply #388 on: January 23, 2024, 07:22:11 PM »
Quote from: AncestralDemocrat. on January 23, 2024, 07:20:02 PM

Joe you've shocked the nation.

Makes all those Politico articles seem abit silly in hindsight.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #389 on: January 23, 2024, 07:22:48 PM »
Donald J. Trump
7,073   +52.6%52.6%   
No delegates—
Nikki Haley
6,315   +46.9%46.9   
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #390 on: January 23, 2024, 07:23:39 PM »
Glad we're getting initial reports with just write-in #s, since 90%+ of those will be for Biden.

If Biden can ultimately get around 75% that would be frankly incredible, given Obama even only got 80% in 2012 *on the ballot*
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oldtimer
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« Reply #391 on: January 23, 2024, 07:23:43 PM »
Quote from: Crumpets on January 23, 2024, 07:21:26 PM
Pretty crazy to think of NH's GOP primary in 2016 and what it meant for Trump vs. tonight. Like, the coalitions within the party have changed so much even with it still just being a Trump vs not Trump election.

It's just that the Democrat primary in NH is basically not held, so Biden voters simply voted in the Republican primary.

The electorate is very much like a general election electorate not a republican one.
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EJ24
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« Reply #392 on: January 23, 2024, 07:24:19 PM »
Why would Democrats vote for Haley in a primary? Wouldn't you want Biden to have the weakest possible opponent in the fall? That is unquestionably Trump.

Haley doesn't have 91 criminal indictments and over half the country violently hating her guts. If Haley were nominated the election would end up being a referendum on Biden, his age, the economy, etc.

Did none of the Democrats pay attention to 2022 or are they still just shell shocked and terrified by 2016? Seriously, Trump and his brand of politics are weak in a general election.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #393 on: January 23, 2024, 07:25:28 PM »
Not entirely sure what average Wasserman is using, but it's clear that Haley isn't just breaking 40%, she's shattering it. It's not a winning number, but it probably would have been if DeSantis was still a candidate....
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Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver
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« Reply #394 on: January 23, 2024, 07:25:34 PM »
Quote from: EJ24 on January 23, 2024, 07:24:19 PM
Why would Democrats vote for Haley in a primary? Wouldn't you want Biden to have the weakest possible opponent in the fall? That is unquestionably Trump.

Haley doesn't have 91 criminal indictments and over half the country violently hating her guts. If Haley were nominated election would end up being a referendum on Biden.

Did none of the Democrats pay attention to 2022 or are they still just shell shocked and terrified by 2016? Seriously, Trump and his brand of politics are weak in a general election.



Because Biden is in a bad position even against Trump and we don't want to take any chances with Trup, even if that means President Haley.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #395 on: January 23, 2024, 07:25:43 PM »
Quote from: EJ24 on January 23, 2024, 07:24:19 PM
Why would Democrats vote for Haley in a primary? Wouldn't you want Biden to have the weakest possible opponent in the fall? That is unquestionably Trump.

Haley doesn't have 91 criminal indictments and over half the country violently hating her guts. If Haley were nominated election would end up being a referendum on Biden.

Did none of the Democrats pay attention to 2022 or are they still just shell shocked and terrified by 2016? Seriously, Trump and his brand of politics are weak in a general election.



Because you want Haley to stay in the race and attack Trump more. She has no chance to win the nomination, but that doesn't mean her candidacy can't serve a useful purpose.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #396 on: January 23, 2024, 07:25:51 PM »
Quote from: AncestralDemocrat. on January 23, 2024, 07:20:54 PM


Well that sucks… I wish i didn’t see this.

Ruined at least some of the suspense -_-
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #397 on: January 23, 2024, 07:25:58 PM »
Quote from: EJ24 on January 23, 2024, 07:24:19 PM
Why would Democrats vote for Haley in a primary? Wouldn't you want Biden to have the weakest possible opponent in the fall? That is unquestionably Trump.

Haley doesn't have 91 criminal indictments and over half the country violently hating her guts. If Haley were nominated election would end up being a referendum on Biden.

Did none of the Democrats pay attention to 2022 or are they still just shell shocked and terrified by 2016? Seriously, Trump and his brand of politics are weak in a general election.



True, but some people hate Trump so bad that they figure this is the best way to do it. Case in point - the guy who was just interviewed on CNN not that long ago where he was undeclared voting for Haley b/c he hates Trump but would vote Biden still v. Haley in the fall.
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Brother Jonathan
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« Reply #398 on: January 23, 2024, 07:26:17 PM »
Quote from: bilaps on January 23, 2024, 07:20:15 PM
Trump won 460 votes in 2016 in Hillsborough, today he won 860.

Not all that surprising, sort of town that should be good for him (Obama-Trump-Trump for reference).

Also, the first reference to my hometown on the forum? Maybe.
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PoliticsWatcher1
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« Reply #399 on: January 23, 2024, 07:26:38 PM »

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