New Hampshire Primary (January 23) Megathread

[TheTide]

First Result:

Trump 55%
Haley 25%

Concord ward 10

Trump 467
Haley 739

Well that clears everything up.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Nikki Haley
1,848   +53.3%53.3%   
No delegates—
Donald J. Trump
1,594   +46.0%46.0   
No delegates—

[GeorgiaModerate]

NYT currently showing DeSantis at 25!

...25 votes, that is, out of 3467.

[Steve from Lambeth]

https://twitter.com/Peoples_Pundit/status/1749934717921624394?s=19
AP exit polls show WAY better results for Trump than the NBC/CNN ones.

I am struggling to imagine evangelical Christians making up 21% of any demographic in New Hampshire, including evangelical Christians.

First Result:

Trump 55%
Haley 25%

No, the first result was Haley 100%. Do you even Dixville Notch?

CNN just said they won't project winner for another hour (until all polls close).

I somehow find it extremely unlikely that the New Hampshire primary will be called at 1am 8pm on the dot.

[Holmes]

Wait, Wasserman’s son’s first name is Gerry, middle name Mander? Come on.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I can't even begin to imagine how insufferable Dean is going to be if he somehow miraculously pulled out a win tonight.

[Senator Incitatus]

Concord 10 is the first ward and might be Haley’s best in the whole (populated portion of the) state.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1749948412110254359

[Lief 🗽]

I can't even begin to imagine how insufferable Dean is going to be if he somehow miraculously pulled out a win tonight.

I mean, if that happens, Biden has to drop out immediately lol

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I can't even begin to imagine how insufferable Dean is going to be if he somehow miraculously pulled out a win tonight.

The only Dean I want to see winning New Hampshire is Howard, 20 years ago.

[Birdish]

"Unprocessed write-ins" up with 75.3% in the dem primary.

I assume the majority of that is Biden.

[kwabbit]

Yeah, probably needs 65% for a tied race.

I think that is an exaggeration. Trump got 28% in Bedford in the 2016 Republican primary, when he was only getting 35% statewide. And that 28% was enough for Trump to win with a substantial plurality.

It is somewhere we should expect Trump to underperform his statewide average, but not necessarily drastically so.

The thing that makes Bedford important is more so that it is a large population center rather than that Haley will necessarily have to win an especially large percentage of the vote there.

Compare Bedford to Peterborough (where we had that other turnout report from). In Peterborough, Kasich actually outright beat Trump (narrowly) in the 2016 Republican primary, even despite Kasich losing by 20 points to Trump statewide. So that is an example of a place where Haley will need a lopsided percentage margin.

That is why reports of high turnout in Peterborough in particular are such a good anecdote for Haley.

Trump didn't do that poorly in Northern (specifically Northeastern) educated counties in the 2016 primary. His weakest areas were 'movement conservative' areas. Someone like Cruz was the loser compared to expectation in a place like Bedford.

[PeteB]

From CNN

Manchester ward 6 (this was one of the best for Trump in the past)

Trump 1169
Haley 849

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I can't even begin to imagine how insufferable Dean is going to be if he somehow miraculously pulled out a win tonight.

I mean, if that happens, Biden has to drop out immediately lol

Only if he tells the DNC overlords to nominate Josh Shapiro.

[Lief 🗽]

MANCHESTER

TRUMP 1169

HALEY 849

BOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM

[Middle-aged Europe]

"Unprocessed write-ins" up with 75.3% in the dem primary.

I assume the majority of that is Biden.

Yeah, but will it be for JOE Biden or for HUNTER Biden?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Concord 10 is the first ward and might be Haley’s best in the whole (populated portion of the) state.

Yeah, state capitol is the exact sort of place you would expect to find Democrats willing to turn out in the Republican primary, as well as Republicans who don't like Trump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

"Unprocessed write-ins" up with 75.3% in the dem primary.

I assume the majority of that is Biden.

I expect an overwhelming majority of them (>90%) are for Biden.

[heatcharger]

Statewide:

Write-ins: 440 - 62.8%
Phillips: 202 - 28.8%
Williamson: 59 - 8.4%

[Mike88]

2% in:

50.9% Haley
48.4% Trump

[PeteB]

The Manchester result is pretty strong for Haley (42%) - this is Trump country.

[Vosem]

I can't even begin to imagine how insufferable Dean is going to be if he somehow miraculously pulled out a win tonight.

I mean, if that happens, Biden has to drop out immediately lol

...how many states have already canceled their primaries and just given their delegates to Biden? I know Florida did this, and I imagine there are others. As long as Biden still has Clyburn et al in his corner I doubt it's mathematically possible for Phillips to win, even if this sort of thing would be very embarrassing.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Donald J. Trump
4,057 +51.7%51.7%
No delegates—
Nikki Haley
3,746 +47.7%47.7
No delegates—

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1749949599324745927?t=jF4MhdvRdEHJkOlaWaMF...

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

TRUMP 467

HALEY 739

in Concord on CNN

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM

That is good for Haley, but Concord is one of the places she would be expected to do well in.

However, here is what I think is a pretty good comparison.

In the 2016 primary, in Concord ward 10, the results were:

Bush 154
Carson 26
Christie 97
Cruz 100
Fiorina 54
Kasich 292
Rubio 133
Trump 293
Others 7

So total votes then were 1156, and Trump won with a 25% plurality then.

Whereas now, total votes are 1206 (plus any others for other candidates), and Haley is winning with 61-39% in the 2 way vote between her and Trump.