New Hampshire Primary (January 23) Megathread
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Author Topic: New Hampshire Primary (January 23) Megathread  (Read 17252 times)
wbrocks67
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« Reply #525 on: January 23, 2024, 08:04:53 PM »
CNN seems to be delaying making a call. They're also trying to say "strong 2nd finish for Haley" AS IF ANYTHING MATTERS
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oldtimer
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« Reply #526 on: January 23, 2024, 08:05:40 PM »
As expected so far the Networks are refusing to call it for Trump even after everyone else has.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #527 on: January 23, 2024, 08:05:54 PM »
Any news outlet that didn't call this for Trump at 8pm is an embarrassment.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #528 on: January 23, 2024, 08:06:53 PM »
CNN:
Biden — 78.3% (1,622)
Phillips — 13.7% (283)
Williamson — 4.1% (84)

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/primaries-and-caucuses/results/new-hampshire

We can compare this to NYT a bit, since CNN is only doing officially counted write-ins
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heatcharger
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« Reply #529 on: January 23, 2024, 08:06:59 PM »
Another great night for the president. Thank you!
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #530 on: January 23, 2024, 08:07:18 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🗽 on January 23, 2024, 08:05:54 PM
Any news outlet that didn't call this for Trump at 8pm is an embarrassment.
CNN would have waited days to call the 1984 election lol with their current mentality
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #531 on: January 23, 2024, 08:07:25 PM »
They weren't gonna call it for him unless it looked like he was winning by 20%.
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Birdish
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« Reply #532 on: January 23, 2024, 08:07:32 PM »
Quote from: heatcharger on January 23, 2024, 08:06:59 PM
Another great night for the president. Thank you!

Yes, a good showing for Biden.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #533 on: January 23, 2024, 08:07:50 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on January 23, 2024, 08:04:53 PM
CNN seems to be delaying making a call. They're also trying to say "strong 2nd finish for Haley" AS IF ANYTHING MATTERS

Seems insane to call any second place finish "strong" when there are only two candidates.
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #534 on: January 23, 2024, 08:08:18 PM »
OMG why are the results taking so long?
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #535 on: January 23, 2024, 08:08:25 PM »
Most boring primaries ever.

Also it looks like polls are pretty accurate so far this year. Which should concern Biden supporters.
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #536 on: January 23, 2024, 08:08:55 PM »
Quote from: Alben Barkley on January 23, 2024, 08:08:25 PM
Most boring primaries ever.

Also it looks like polls are pretty accurate so far this year. Which should concern Biden supporters.
President Biden's polling has actual improved these last week
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #537 on: January 23, 2024, 08:09:03 PM »
DDHQ is still way ahead of the Times...

Now 55-44 Trump with 64.1k.

Seen various townships flip get colored live on NYT right after scanning DDHQ.

Still think Haley might do well in "The Kasich Belt" of Western NH near the VT border...
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EJ24
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« Reply #538 on: January 23, 2024, 08:09:38 PM »
How could Biden win the primary despite not even being on the ballot?

The media told me nobody likes Biden and everybody thinks he's too old, and he's definitely gonna lose, and he might be replaced on the ticket, and Dems in disarray, and blah blah blah blah.....
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« Reply #539 on: January 23, 2024, 08:09:41 PM »
Not sure how you can say the polls were accurate in NH when they all concerned multiple candidates besides Trump and Haley. Kind of apples to oranges. The polls were pretty accurate in Iowa though.
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Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins
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« Reply #540 on: January 23, 2024, 08:09:53 PM »
Fox has called it for Trump
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Birdish
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« Reply #541 on: January 23, 2024, 08:10:07 PM »
Quote from: Alben Barkley on January 23, 2024, 08:08:25 PM
Most boring primaries ever.

Also it looks like polls are pretty accurate so far this year. Which should concern Biden supporters.

Polls clearly underestimated Haley, and Biden for that matter. I don't think I saw a single poll with him over 70%.
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Vosem
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« Reply #542 on: January 23, 2024, 08:10:23 PM »
Quote from: NOVA Green on January 23, 2024, 08:09:03 PM
DDHQ is still way ahead of the Times...

Now 55-44 Trump with 64.1k.

Seen various townships flip get colored live on NYT right after scanning DDHQ.

Still think Haley might do well in "The Kasich Belt" of Western NH near the VT border...

Main question left is whether Haley carries Grafton County, yes? Funniest outcome (albeit very specific) would be winning 1 county by 1 vote again.
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jaichind
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« Reply #543 on: January 23, 2024, 08:10:30 PM »
The needle says Trump +13
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #544 on: January 23, 2024, 08:10:48 PM »
Quote from: Alben Barkley on January 23, 2024, 08:08:25 PM
Most boring primaries ever.

Also it looks like polls are pretty accurate so far this year. Which should concern Biden supporters.

GOP primary polls accuracy =/= GE polls accuracy

The issue that many of us have with some of the polls is nonresponse bias, which would mean you're getting a good read of GOP Primary voters, but not Dem voters.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #545 on: January 23, 2024, 08:11:06 PM »
Quote from: Alben Barkley on January 23, 2024, 08:08:25 PM
Most boring primaries ever.

Also it looks like polls are pretty accurate so far this year. Which should concern Biden supporters.

Yup, democracy over! Everyone should just pack it in and move to Canada while you still can.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #546 on: January 23, 2024, 08:11:09 PM »
So far it looks like 99% of write-ins are for Joe Biden?
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #547 on: January 23, 2024, 08:11:23 PM »
First votes just came in from Nashua...

DDHQ is showing it yellow.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #548 on: January 23, 2024, 08:11:29 PM »
Quote from: Alben Barkley on January 23, 2024, 08:08:25 PM
Most boring primaries ever.

Also it looks like polls are pretty accurate so far this year. Which should concern Biden supporters.

Polls for tonight were awful, most polls had Trump 20+
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #549 on: January 23, 2024, 08:11:30 PM »
Quote from: Pres Mike on January 23, 2024, 08:08:55 PM
Quote from: Alben Barkley on January 23, 2024, 08:08:25 PM
Most boring primaries ever.

Also it looks like polls are pretty accurate so far this year. Which should concern Biden supporters.
President Biden's polling has actual improved these last week
Not consistent with recent trend line.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
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