2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th

[xelas81]

So what is going on with NPP?
Are they pessimistic that they won't make the 5% cutoff?
Is their strategy to reach 5% appealing to Lai voters or Ko voters?

[jaichind]

So what is going on with NPP?
Are they pessimistic that they won't make the 5% cutoff?
Is their strategy to reach 5% appealing to Lai voters or Ko voters?

NPP outperformed in 2020 PR mostly due to an anti-Han youth surge to vote for DPP Tsai to stop KMT Han but did not trust the DPP ergo parked their PR vote for NPP (and in some cases TPP.)  This time around this youth surge most likely will not take place and if it does it will go to TPP.  Worst, their most popular face 黃國昌(Huang Kuo-chang) has defected to TPP taking some of the anti-DPP parts of the NPP PR vote with him.

In this election, NPP is also dogged by internal splits where some want to back DPP Lai to try to get votes and others want to back TPP Ko to get votes in the end neither happened and the party got the worst of both worlds.   What will save NPP is some sort of mega DPP scandal to break last minute and some of the DPP Light Green vote shift to NPP (and most likely TPP Ko for Prez).  Absent that I do not see how NPP gets over 5% threshold for PR.

[jaichind]

DPP renegade 游盈隆(Michael You) who runs TPOF came out with his projection of DPP Lai victory by 1% but TPP Ko is stronger than expected.

DPP Lai       37.7
KMT Hou     36.7
TPP Ko        25.7

TPOF's late Dec poll was so You's projection seems to have a polarization of undecided that lean KMT Hou but not enough to win.

DPP renegade TPOF poll - This poll has been fairly youth/cell heavy plus a Green lean.  This time their results are converging with other mainstream polls (change from Nov)
DPP Lai         32.4 (+3.2)
KMT Hou       28.2 (+4.6)
TPP Ko          24.6 (-7.3)

Formosa Times's final projection is a DPP Lai 3.5% victory
DPP Lai        41.2
KMT Hou      37.7
TPP Ko         21.1


Note that during the poll blackout period of the last 10 days of the election, even projections are not allowed.

[jaichind]

TPP final internal poll release - 3-way tie with TPP Ko in second place but with the momentum - what a surprise

DPP Lai        27.2 (-1.0)
TPP Ko         26.9 (+3.0)
KMT Hou      26.4 (-0.4)

The message is clear - all marginal KMT-TPP voters should vote for TPP Ko to defeat DPP Lai.


Looking at crosstabs if you remove their "reweighting for projected turnout" the result of this poll is
DPP Lai        32.9
KMT Hou      30.0
TPP Ko         19.3
Which looks like all the other polls


Party support it has
           Raw        After reweighting
KMT      31.2             27.3
DPP      27.7              24.5
TPP       16.9             21.1
NPP         1.9              2.4
TSP         1.9              1.6

I think they released the raw numbers as well so if the election results have TPP Ko in third place by a good margin TPP can say "Look, our poll was not a fraud, look at the raw numbers, we merely got the turnout model wrong"  This way their get the result they want from a headline point of view but can point to the fine print when the result does not match their poll.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Jaichind is it possible that Lai manages to tough it out and win the presidency?

[jaichind]

Jaichind is it possible that Lai manages to tough it out and win the presidency?

Of course, in fact, that (narrow DPP Lai victory) is the default scenario.  The volatility of events in the next 10 days favor KMT Hou (late-breaking DPP scandal, Guo endorsement of KMT Hou) but they are what ifs and possibilities.  Without them, DPP Lai should win.  I would say the KMT Hou's current position is somewhere between 2016 Trump and 2020 Trump a week before the election: There are plenty of paths to victory but the default case is a narrow loss.

What is clear is that a DPP legislative majority would require DPP Lai to win by 4% or so.  A narrow DPP Lai victory most likely means KMT and DPP are neck-to-neck in terms of seats or KMT SLP with an outside chance of a KMT majority.  In the case of a KMT Hou victory then KMT most likely would have won a majority in the legislature. 

So a DPP Lai presidency would be much more difficult than a KMT Hou presidency especially in case the former TPP will gang up with KMT to go after a DPP Prez Lai with a solid opposition majority in the legislature.

[jaichind]

Battle of campaign posters in New Taipei City 12th district (Blue +3) where the DPP incumbent is in a tight race against a KMT MLA with strong local roots and seems likely to be defeated.

First, we have the KMT poster (on top with white background) pushing for defeat of the current DPP administration (to help get TPP votes) and praising the service record of the KMT MLA challenger.  The DPP poster (on the bottom with blue background) praising the service of the DPP incumbent for the district.  BTW, note how the KMT poster the KMT MLA has KMT Hou in the same frame as he is but in the DPP poster DPP Lai is in a separate picture as DPP Lai.  This reflects the Blue+3 nature of the district where DPP Lai most likely a slight liability versus an asset for the DPP incumbent so it is best to have some "distance" between the two,.



Then the DPP incumbent put a poster on top of the KMT poster with an arrow pointing down at the KMT poster saying the KMT MLA is involved in the stealing of public land


Then the KMT  MLA changes his poster with a black arrow pointing down at the original DPP poster saying that the DPP incumbent is falling back on false accusations due to her lack of a real record and that if her accusations is proven to be true he will pull out of the race but if it is not proven to be true she should pull out of the race.  Then the DPP poster at the bottom got changed to say that the KMT MLA comes from a family of crooks and will be sent to prison soon for his corrupt practices.

[jaichind]

One interesting thing about the final Prez debate on PRC relations is that KMT Hou pushed a fairly Light Blue and even Light Green line while TPP Ko pushed a fairly Deep Blue line.  KMT Hou focused on how he is against PRC's "One Country Two Systems" and focused less on the One China aspects of the  ROC Constitution.      TPP Ko called out that under the ROC Consitution Mainland China is a part of ROC, which is a Deep Blue line.  The reason for this is that KMT Hou is trying to target older Light Green voters in the South which he thinks he can potentially swing from DPP Lai over to him.  While TPP Ko figures he cannot win any older voters (South or otherwise) he is targeting KMT-TPP Pan-Blue voters.  TPP Ko is also betting that the 2020 Youth surge for DPP Prez Tsai is more about being anti-KMT Han and anti-PRC only due to the 2019-2020 HK protests and is does not mean that the youth vote is "Green" on PRC issues which means TPP Ko does not risk his youth base by trying the rope on KMT-TPP Pan-Blue marginal voters.

[jaichind]

Looks like the NPP made the call to go all out to attack former NPP leader and founder 黃國昌(Huang Kuo-chang) and now part of the TPP PR list and TPP Ko for betraying their 2013 Deep Green anti-KMT protest roots.  They are targeting the DPP PR vote and giving up on the anti-DPP vote.  This is also good news for DPP Lai since this means the NPP PR is more likely to lean toward DPP Lai.

[jaichind]

TPP Ko's KPTV de facto accuses the DPP of rigging the 2020 Prez election.

KPTV played "2020年總統大選作票影片" or "2020 Prez election rigging videos"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yw-GIPwubu8

Very bold but not logical move.  DPP Tsai beat KMT Han in 2020 by 19%. Even if there are some counting procedural mistakes it is clear DPP Tsai won by a huge margin.

BTW

https://youtu.be/Yw-GIPwubu8?t=200
to
https://youtu.be/Yw-GIPwubu8?t=261

Show the vote counting at the elementary school I attended for 1st grade.  I moved to another school for 2nd grade.   Ah, memories. 

[jaichind]

DPP Lai ad "On the road" where DPP Prez Tsai is driving and hands over the car to DPP Lai with DPP VP candidate Hsiao as backup.

When the ad first came out there were all sorts of accusations that it plagiarized another non political ad from a couple of years ago.  The DPP and TPP internet armies swarmed various video sits voting up or down.  So far it seems to be a tie in terms of up and down votes showing that the DPP and TPP internet armies are evenly matched.  



On youtube views already reached 1 million in one day so the controversy is a victory for the DPP Lai campaign

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4kGNldUQGw



In the meantime KMT VP candidate Chao appearing on a top late-night talk show also got 1 million views in one day

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ra8jwMscBD4

[jaichind]

On the campaign trail DPP Lai and TPP Ko are going after each other on PRC relationship issue:

DPP Lai: "Ko said that Mainland and Taiwan are like one family, can he explain in this family who is the head of the household ?"

TPP Ko: "Lai said that he wants China and Taiwan to be fraternal countries, can he explain in this relationship who is the older brother and who is the younger brother?"

[jaichind]

Scandal breaks out for DPP incumbent of New Taipei 7th district (Green +1) 羅致政(Lo Chih-Cheng).  It seems he had an affair with his assistant back in 2017 and videos from 2017 of him and his assistant in bed appeared on porn sites the USA.  Just yesterday these videos were being released to the ROC media.



Lo is dancing around on if he had an affair back in 2017 but denies that the man in the videos are him.  The DPP claims that the PRC is behind these video releases.

The New Taipei 7th district is considered a tossup district where a KMT MLA with pretty strong local roots is challenging Lo.  I still had DPP holding this seat given the lean of the district and incumbency advatnage.  It seems this seat might be more at risk for the DPP.

[jaichind]

The various KMT legislative candidate pretty much have a workaround to get TPP votes in their district even though they cannot ask TPP Ko to appear at their campaign events.   The workaround is to get a TPP Ko proxy in the form of the KMT backed TPP candidate for Taichung 1st district (Green +1) 蔡壁如(Tsai Pi-Ru) who used to be Ko's COS when he was the mayor of Taipei.

The basic idea is all these KMT legislative candidates who are in tight fights will go to  Taichung 1st district to campaign for 蔡壁如(Tsai Pi-Ru) to help her consolidate the KMT vote in addition to her core TPP vote to take on the powerful DPP New Tide and Legislature Deputy Speaker incumbent (also with a surname of Tsai).  In return 蔡壁如(Tsai Pi-Ru) goes to these KMT candidate districts to campaign for them calling on the TPP vote to vote for these KMT candidates.

Here is a campaign poster by the KMT candidate 林金結(Lin Jin-Jie) in New Taipei 10th district (Even) where he is taking on the DPP incumbent.   The poster has 林金結(Lin Jin-Jie) with 蔡壁如(Tsai Pi-Ru) together with the message "consolidate the entire TPP vote behind 林金結(Lin Jin-Jie)"


One other interesting fact about 蔡壁如(Tsai Pi-Ru)'s run is that it actually helped solved a KMT "problem" in Taichung 1st.  The reason why the KMT always loses Taiching 1st by large margins despite its very small DPP lean (Green +1) is due to the rivalry between the Taichiung pro-KMT Black and pro-KMT Red factions.    Taiching 1st is a place where both factions are equally powerful and would always defect to the DPP if the KMT nominates someone from the other faction.  This time around by just not nominating anyine and backing the TPP the KMT "solved" this problem and now both the Black and Red factions are consolidating behind TPP 蔡壁如(Tsai Pi-Ru).

[jaichind]

This is the reason why there is an undercurrent of frustrated youth.  That frustration was taken out on KMT Han due to the HK protests in 2020 but this time it seems to be flowing to TPP.  This is sort of similar to Ireland, the Dutch disease, and other economies overreliant on tourism.  Overreliance on the tech sector to generate GDP growth leads to results like this.

[jaichind]

Signs that Guo might be coming out of his hibernation soon.  The pro-KMT independent candidate in Tainan 4th (Green +9) will be holding a rally on Jan 7th.  The posters for that rally seem to imply that Guo will attend that rally.  The pro-KMT independent is a former KMT MP and MLA with deep roots in Tainan but had to run this time as an independent due to outstanding corruption charges.  His campaign slogan is the very original "Make Tainan Great Again."

If this poster is true then I can see Guo campaigning for other KMT candidates sometime after Jan 7th.

[jaichind]

DPP Internet Army vs TPP Internet Army battle over DPP Lai's "On the Road" ad in terms of likes vs dislikes seems to be shifting in favor of the TPP Internet army

[jaichind]

A scandal breaks out for the DPP incumbent of New Taipei 7th district (Green +1) 羅致政(Lo Chih-Cheng).  It seems he had an affair with his assistant back in 2017 and videos from 2017 of him and his assistant in bed appeared on porn sites in the USA.  Just yesterday these videos were being released to the ROC media.



Lo is dancing around on if he had an affair back in 2017 but denies that the man in the videos is him.  The DPP claims that the PRC is behind these video releases.

The New Taipei 7th district is considered a tossup district where a KMT MLA with pretty strong local roots is challenging Lo.  I still had DPP holding this seat given the lean of the district and incumbency advantage.  It seems this seat might be more at risk for the DPP.

The PRC Taiwan Affairs Office held a rare press conference to address the claims of the DPP MP 羅致政(Lo Chih-Cheng) saying that the sex videos of him (and two other women) are fakes produced by the PRC.  Their message is "We have no idea about anything to do with these sex tapes but they have nothing to do with us."

Ironically, the tabloid that broke these videos is owned by one 璩美鳳(Chu Mei-feng) who wrote a public letter defending her decision to release these sex tapes and that her tabloids have determined that these tapes are authentic and tampered with.

Chu was a TV anchor and then a youth NP superstar in the mid-1990s when she was in her 20s and served a term as NP MLA for Taipei City.  She and now KMT VP candidate Chao also recruited her good friend 黃珊珊(Huang Shan-shan), now leading the TPP PR list, to take her place as NP MLA when her term came up.  In 2001 Chu had an affair with a married man and her disgruntled friend made several films with that ill-fated couple in "action."  Her disgruntled friend then sold those taps to a tabloid and due to the good looks and good "technique" by this couple, those sex tapes became the most-watched porn in ROC history.  Chu was on the cover of every tabloid magazine in 2001


Chu, her life ruined, went to the PRC for a few years to go into business.  She eventually came back and then took over a tabloid herself.  Now, going full circle where she is most famous for being in some sex tapes over 20 years ago she is defending the right of her tabloid to release sex tapes.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A scandal breaks out for the DPP incumbent of New Taipei 7th district (Green +1) 羅致政(Lo Chih-Cheng).  It seems he had an affair with his assistant back in 2017 and videos from 2017 of him and his assistant in bed appeared on porn sites in the USA.  Just yesterday these videos were being released to the ROC media.



Lo is dancing around on if he had an affair back in 2017 but denies that the man in the videos is him.  The DPP claims that the PRC is behind these video releases.

The New Taipei 7th district is considered a tossup district where a KMT MLA with pretty strong local roots is challenging Lo.  I still had DPP holding this seat given the lean of the district and incumbency advantage.  It seems this seat might be more at risk for the DPP.

The PRC Taiwan Affairs Office held a rare press conference to address the claims of the DPP MP 羅致政(Lo Chih-Cheng) saying that the sex videos of him (and two other women) are fakes produced by the PRC.  Their message is "We have no idea about anything to do with these sex tapes but they have nothing to do with us."

Ironically, the tabloid that broke these videos is owned by one 璩美鳳(Chu Mei-feng) who wrote a public letter defending her decision to release these sex tapes and that her tabloids have determined that these tapes are authentic and tampered with.

Chu was a TV anchor and then a youth NP superstar in the mid-1990s when she was in her 20s and served a term as NP MLA for Taipei City.  She and now KMT VP candidate Chao also recruited her good friend 黃珊珊(Huang Shan-shan), now leading the TPP PR list, to take her place as NP MLA when her term came up.  In 2001 Chu had an affair with a married man and her disgruntled friend made several films with that ill-fated couple in "action."  Her disgruntled friend then sold those taps to a tabloid and due to the good looks and good "technique" by this couple, those sex tapes became the most-watched porn in ROC history.  Chu was on the cover of every tabloid magazine in 2001


Chu, her life ruined, went to the PRC for a few years to go into business.  She eventually came back and then took over a tabloid herself.  Now, going full circle where she is most famous for being in some sex tapes over 20 years ago she is defending the right of her tabloid to release sex tapes.

This whole story is too strange to be fiction.

[jaichind]

All things equal DPP Lai and TPP Ko campaigns seem focused on attacking each other to fight over the Light Green vote.  KMT Hou is not attacking TPP Ko but talks about the need to concentrate opposition votes which is trying to trigger an anti-DPP consolidation around KMT Hou.  DPP Lai's campaign beginning to focus on legislative races.  Their internal surveys must show (which public polls also showed) that the DPP Lai vote is not entirely transferred to DPP legislative (PR and district) candidates. 

[jaichind]

Formosa Times Chairperson and DPP Light Green renegade 吳子嘉 (Wu Tze-Jia) (expelled from the DPP in 2021) made a public bet with TPP Ko.  He said if TPP Ko came in 1st or 2nd he would donate $2 million to charity.  On the flip side if TPP Ko came in third then Ko would donate $2 million to charity.  Wu was fairly close to TPP in the 2022 local election cycle but has turned against Ko this election cycle.  Overall Wu seems to be anti-DPP and anti-TPP (although he is much more negative on TPP Ko than DPP Lai) in his commentary which de facto means he is backing KMT Hou.

He also said that his estimated gap between KMT Hou and DPP Lai is now less than the last Fomosa Times projection below although due to the poll blackout period, he is not allowed to say what that gap is now.

Formosa Times's final projection is a DPP Lai 3.5% victory
DPP Lai        41.2
KMT Hou      37.7
TPP Ko         21.1

[jaichind]

KMT VP candidate Chao appearing on a Late Night a couple of days ago show was fairly effective in connecting him to the youth.  I do not think it will get KMT Hou that many votes but I think it did serve to lower the cynicism of the youth as a whole toward the KMT Hou-Chao ticket.

The late-night talk show included a satirical version of "Who Wants to be a Millionaire" where fun questions are asked of the guest.   In some cases they as cutting questions meant to make the guest look bad.  That took place with the first question they gave to Chao which was

"How hypocritical.  Who talks about affordable housing but owns a 103-room building with overpriced rent?" (this is a clear hit on KMT Hou whose wife inherited this building years ago from her parents)
a) TPP PR candidate Huang (former head of NPP)
b) KMT Hou
c) Famous pseudo-political commenter
d) KMT VP Chao

with the clear answer being b) but making Chao pick that answer is meant to make him and KMT Hou look bad
https://youtu.be/fHfXjUlLMRw?list=FLBZqnIPPjMvxL1cq6anDjYw&t=87

Chao came up with a scheme.  He wanted to ask to call someone to answer the question
https://youtu.be/fHfXjUlLMRw?list=FLBZqnIPPjMvxL1cq6anDjYw&t=108

and asked to call KMT Hou which got a wild reaction from the crowd
https://youtu.be/fHfXjUlLMRw?list=FLBZqnIPPjMvxL1cq6anDjYw&t=118

Then Chao got KMT Hou on the phone and after going back and forth with the host eventually picked b) and defused this difficult situation in a very entertaining way.
https://youtu.be/fHfXjUlLMRw?list=FLBZqnIPPjMvxL1cq6anDjYw&t=150

KMT VP candidate Chao is 73 but his years in entertainment and media served him well in this situation.

[Octowakandi]

KMT VP candidate Chao appearing on a Late Night a couple of days ago show was fairly effective in connecting him to the youth.  I do not think it will get KMT Hou that many votes but I think it did serve to lower the cynicism of the youth as a whole toward the KMT Hou-Chao ticket.

The late-night talk show included a satirical version of "Who Wants to be a Millionaire" where fun questions are asked of the guest.   In some cases they as cutting questions meant to make the guest look bad.  That took place with the first question they gave to Chao which was

"How hypocritical.  Who talks about affordable housing but owns a 103-room building with overpriced rent?" (this is a clear hit on KMT Hou whose wife inherited this building years ago from her parents)
a) TPP PR candidate Huang (former head of NPP)
b) KMT Hou
c) Famous pseudo-political commenter
d) KMT VP Chao

with the clear answer being b) but making Chao pick that answer is meant to make him and KMT Hou look bad
https://youtu.be/fHfXjUlLMRw?list=FLBZqnIPPjMvxL1cq6anDjYw&t=87

Chao came up with a scheme.  He wanted to ask to call someone to answer the question
https://youtu.be/fHfXjUlLMRw?list=FLBZqnIPPjMvxL1cq6anDjYw&t=108

and asked to call KMT Hou which got a wild reaction from the crowd
https://youtu.be/fHfXjUlLMRw?list=FLBZqnIPPjMvxL1cq6anDjYw&t=118

Then Chao got KMT Hou on the phone and after going back and forth with the host eventually picked b) and defused this difficult situation in a very entertaining way.
https://youtu.be/fHfXjUlLMRw?list=FLBZqnIPPjMvxL1cq6anDjYw&t=150

KMT VP candidate Chao is 73 but his years in entertainment and media served him well in this situation.

That’s hysterical! What was the substance of the back and forth? I imagine Chao innocently asked the question and then Hou just explained the situation? And then the host and Hou seemed to exchange some general pleasantries?

[jaichind]

That’s hysterical! What was the substance of the back and forth? I imagine Chao innocently asked the question and then Hou just explained the situation? And then the host and Hou seemed to exchange some general pleasantries?

It was mostly pleasantries since KMT Hou was only one minute on the call.  KMT Hou promised to hold his celebration party at the show if he wins and his post-mortem at the show if he were to lose.   

The KMT line on the dorm is pretty clear for everyone who cares; It was a condo that was inherited by KMT Hou's wife, and it is legal from a zoning and tax point of view.  The rent is determined by the real estate management company (actually owned by TPP VP candidate Wu's family).

Chao's goal is to gain dramatic effect and humanize himself the KMT Hou to the youth watching the show and show that they are not a bunch of fuddy-duddies. 

It is impressive that Chao at age 73  can think so quickly on his feet and be so charismatic.  Note that he is only 8 years younger than Biden but the entertainment skill gap between the two is massive, 

[CascadianIndy]

I think there's an argument to be made for Jaw/Chao being the KMT's greatest asset this electoral cycle. Not only did he consolidate the deep blues under the KMT ticket after they flirted with Ko and the TPP, he energized the faithful and furthermore, he's quite charismatic and quick on his feet. I can definitely see why he performed so well in past elections.