2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th

[jaichind]

I think there's an argument to be made for Jaw/Chao being the KMT's greatest asset this electoral cycle. Not only did he consolidate the deep blues under the KMT ticket after they flirted with Ko and the TPP, he energized the faithful and furthermore, he's quite charismatic and quick on his feet. I can definitely see why he performed so well in past elections.

Only because the KMT misread the election dynamics ahead of time, again. 

In 2020 when it was eventually a 2 way race the KMT assumed it was going to be a 3 way race between DPP KMT and Ko.  As a result the KMT when with Han who is polarizing but can turn out the pan-Blue race.   But Ko chose not to run and the anti-Han consolidation in 2020 along with the HK protest factor led to a landslide defeat.  In 2020 the KMT should have nominated Guo or Hou both of which would have been defeated but would have made it closer and produced a better performance in legislative elections.

In 2024 the KMT misread the election again and assumed it would be a mostly 2 way race with Ko being marginalized.   As a result, KMT went with Hou who would struggle to consolidate the pan-Blue vote but the DPP candidate Lai would fix that problem, and Hou would be able to get the Light Green vote in the South.  But the Ko surge made it a 3-way race and Hou's inability to consolidate the Pan-Blue vote became a clear problem.    Picking Chao as Hou's VP candidate fixed that problem but it was a problem of the KMT high command making.

[jaichind]

DPP renegade 游盈隆(Michael You) of TPOF polling agency went on former DPP Prez Chen's show and pretty much repeated (without numbers which would not be allowed in the poll blackout period) his prediction below.

DPP renegade 游盈隆(Michael You) who runs TPOF came out with his projection of DPP Lai victory by 1% but TPP Ko is stronger than expected.

DPP Lai       37.7
KMT Hou     36.7
TPP Ko        25.7

[jaichind]

In the Taidong at large legislative race (Blue +18), the DPP Lai vs Tsai rivalry is rearing its head.  The lean of the district is deceptive since the large and very pro-KMT aborigines of the county will vote in a separate aborigine ballot.

The race is a de facto 4-way race where it is KMT vs DPP vs DPP rebel vs KMT rebel.

The DPP won this seat in 2012 2016 and 2020 under the pro-Tsai 劉櫂豪(Liu Chao-Hao).  This time around the pro-Lai 賴坤成(Lai Kuen-cheng) (also with the surname Lai) won the DPP primary.  Note both Liu and Lai come from second-tier KMT political families and both have gone over to the DPP camp to get more political opportunities so both have the ability to capture some Pan-Blue votes which was the basis of Liu winning here in 2012 2016 and 2020.   Liu, having lost the primary, claimed that the New Tide faction rigged the primary process and is running as an independent claiming he has DPP Prez Tsai's support.  DPP Prez Tsai is silent on this claim which is really angering the Lai camp.  The only good news for the DPP here is that a KMT rebel with strong local roots is also running making this a 4-way race.  The KMT candidate is expected to win.

The anger between the two DPP candidates and their respective camps (Lai and Tsai) showed up in a bizarre episode.  It seems the KMT candidate 黃建賓 (Huang Chien-Pin), himself from a second-tier KMT family and quite close to Lai's family (the DPP legislative candidate) at a personal level, was campaigning in a mini rally at a key intersection.  

Then 賴坤成(Lai Kuen-cheng) showed up to campaign with him and in front of the media sort of "endorsed" 黃建賓 (Huang Chien-Pin) by saying "If you cannot vote for Lai (myself), please vote for Huang.  If can not vote for Huang please vote for Lai. No matter what do not vote for that snake and traitor Liu"

DPP candidate 賴坤成(Lai Kuen-cheng) in a yellow vest with a DPP logo holding a ROC flag (that is very unusual for a DPP candidate but he is at a KMT "rally") and is talking to the KMT candidate 黃建賓 (Huang Chien-Pin)  in a White vest with a ROC flag logo under a sign that also says "Please vote for KMT Hou-Chao ticket".




Later on 賴坤成(Lai Kuen-cheng)'s wife complained to the media that DPP Prez Tsai was not getting involved and said that Liu's independent run does not have her support, contrary to Liu's claims.

The DPP Lai vs Tsai rivalry in action.

[jaichind]

In a rally over the weekend KMT head of the PR list and 2020 KMT Prez candidate Han said that TPP Ko cannot win and that all of TPP Ko's supporters should vote KMT Hou.   This is a blow to TPP Ko since he has been trying to claw Han supporters over to his camp.  TPP Ko said afterward that what Han said at the rally does not represent what he says in private.

As a whole the KMT strategy is to not attack TPP Ko but instead appeal to their sense need to defeat DPP.  The KMT is counting on the TPP PR vote in legislative races so a KMT attack on TPP or TPP Ko would be counterproductive.   The DPP strategy seems to be that they are not likely to get a lot of DPP PR votes in legislative races so they are going all out to attack TPP Ko so try to claw back Light Green PR votes (NPP GPT etc etc)  from TPP Ko in the Prez race.

[jaichind]

TPP Ko made videos, it seems on his own, endorsing the KMT legislative candidates in Taichung 4th (Blue +3) (DPP incumbent running for re-election) and Taiching 6th (Even) (DPP won in 2020 but is now open seat.)  This will help these 2 KMT candidates a lot since both seats are tossup.  I think DPP will win  Taichung 4th but KMT will flip  Taichung 6th.  KMT high command is OK with this.  KMT's "Ko ban" is only for TPP Ko to attend KMT rallies.  KMT has no issues with TPP Ko endorsing KMT legislative candidates.

In a couple of other seats there also have been cases of "accidental" meetings between TPP Ko and the KMT legislative candidate when walking the streets to campaign where TPP Ko would yell slogans asking for a vote for the KMT candidate.

[jaichind]

A scandal breaks out for the DPP incumbent of New Taipei 7th district (Green +1) 羅致政(Lo Chih-Cheng).  It seems he had an affair with his assistant back in 2017 and videos from 2017 of him and his assistant in bed appeared on porn sites in the USA.  Just yesterday these videos were being released to the ROC media.



Lo is dancing around on if he had an affair back in 2017 but denies that the man in the videos is him.  The DPP claims that the PRC is behind these video releases.

The New Taipei 7th district is considered a tossup district where a KMT MLA with pretty strong local roots is challenging Lo.  I still had DPP holding this seat given the lean of the district and incumbency advantage.  It seems this seat might be more at risk for the DPP.

New developments

1) Some media sources said that the DPP-controlled investigative and prosecution agencies concluded that these sex tapes were not fake.  Under pressure from the media and KMT, these agencies admitted that they concluded that these sex tapes were fake but without the people involved (DPP MP 羅致政(Lo Chih-Cheng) and the two women in the tapes) they cannot release their findings.  This implicitly indicates that they are not fake or else the parties involved (DPP MP 羅致政(Lo Chih-Cheng) and the two women in the tapes) would surely agree to the results of the analysis being released.  The KMT is saying that the investigative and prosecution agencies have to release the results since the DPP and Lo are saying that the PRC produced these tapes so for national security reasons the results of the analysis should be made public.

2) On the same day another "tape" was released to the media that relates to DPP MP  羅致政(Lo Chih-Cheng).  It seems Lo and DPP Prez Tsai back in 2019 had a 41-minute private conversation whose recording was released.  The recording is mostly innocuous (the first 30 minutes are a long discussion about how to change DPP Prez Tsai Feng Shui to improve her political fortunes[this was right after the 2018 DPP defeat in local elections] and the last 11 minutes was about some DPP personnel issues).  The key problem was one of national security.  All visitors to the Prez Palace need to have their cell phones held by security so how was this private conversation recorded?  And it is a violation of national security regulations to record the Prez in a private conversation without his/her knowledge.    羅致政(Lo Chih-Cheng) said that "this recording is doctored" (note that he did not say it was fake) and that, once again, the PRC is behind this "doctored" audio tape while DPP Prez Tsai is silent on the issue of the authenticity of this audio tape.

I think the people behind all these leaks are DPP rivals of 羅致政(Lo Chih-Cheng), most likely a sitting DPP MP or MLA in New Taipei City.  The goal must be to eliminate Lo from being able to run for mayor of New Taipei City so enhance the chances of another DPP politician in New Taipei City.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

KMT VP candidate Chao appearing on a Late Night a couple of days ago show was fairly effective in connecting him to the youth.  I do not think it will get KMT Hou that many votes but I think it did serve to lower the cynicism of the youth as a whole toward the KMT Hou-Chao ticket.

The late-night talk show included a satirical version of "Who Wants to be a Millionaire" where fun questions are asked of the guest.   In some cases they as cutting questions meant to make the guest look bad.  That took place with the first question they gave to Chao which was

"How hypocritical.  Who talks about affordable housing but owns a 103-room building with overpriced rent?" (this is a clear hit on KMT Hou whose wife inherited this building years ago from her parents)
a) TPP PR candidate Huang (former head of NPP)
b) KMT Hou
c) Famous pseudo-political commenter
d) KMT VP Chao

with the clear answer being b) but making Chao pick that answer is meant to make him and KMT Hou look bad
https://youtu.be/fHfXjUlLMRw?list=FLBZqnIPPjMvxL1cq6anDjYw&t=87

Chao came up with a scheme.  He wanted to ask to call someone to answer the question
https://youtu.be/fHfXjUlLMRw?list=FLBZqnIPPjMvxL1cq6anDjYw&t=108

and asked to call KMT Hou which got a wild reaction from the crowd
https://youtu.be/fHfXjUlLMRw?list=FLBZqnIPPjMvxL1cq6anDjYw&t=118

Then Chao got KMT Hou on the phone and after going back and forth with the host eventually picked b) and defused this difficult situation in a very entertaining way.
https://youtu.be/fHfXjUlLMRw?list=FLBZqnIPPjMvxL1cq6anDjYw&t=150

KMT VP candidate Chao is 73 but his years in entertainment and media served him well in this situation.

Interesting that the phone conversation between Hou and Chao is mostly in Hokkien, which tracks with your observations that the KMT is trying to win over more older, rural, and non-college voters relative to previous cycles.

The Late Night segment featuring TPP VP candidate Cynthia Wu is interesting. Within the first couple minutes, you can tell she's under 50 and was educated in the US based on how she name-drops politics/current events phrases in American-accented English and how she greets some Japanese acquaintances in the audience in basic, accented Japanese. Not hard to see why her ticket does particularly well among younger voters.

[xelas81]

Looks like PRC does care about this election.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/ignoring-taiwans-complaints-more-chinese-balloons-spotted-over-strait-2024-01-08/

[Frodo]

I can hardly blame them:

Hong Kongers in Taiwan firmly support the ruling party after watching China erode freedoms at home

As Taiwan’s presidential election approaches, many immigrants from Hong Kong, witnesses to the alarming erosion of civil liberties at home, are supporting the ruling Democratic Progressive Party.

Beijing’s crackdown on dissent in the financial hub has cemented their preference for a party committed to preserving Taiwan’s de facto independence and democratic values ahead of the Jan. 13 vote.

While Taiwanese immigration policies have been less welcoming than some from Hong Kong anticipated, most remain steadfast in their support for the DPP, largely due to the party’s firm stance on autonomy from Beijing, according to interviews with 10 Hong Kongers, over half of whom moved to Taiwan after the 2019 anti-government protests.

[jaichind]

Interesting that the phone conversation between Hou and Chao is mostly in Hokkien, which tracks with your observations that the KMT is trying to win over more older, rural, and non-college voters relative to previous cycles.

The Late Night segment featuring TPP VP candidate Cynthia Wu is interesting. Within the first couple minutes, you can tell she's under 50 and was educated in the US based on how she name-drops politics/current events phrases in American-accented English and how she greets some Japanese acquaintances in the audience in basic, accented Japanese. Not hard to see why her ticket does particularly well among younger voters.

Correct.  Note that the Hoklo KMT Hou speaks are "different" from the Hoklo that DPP Lai and TPP Ko speak.  KMT Hou speaks a more earthly variation of Hoklo while the Hoklo DPP Lai and TPP Ko speak a highbrow urban version of Hoklo which is often sort of urban Mandarin superimposed on top of Hoklo.  In other words, KMT Hou is going after the DPP Deep South Billy and Bubba vote.  In 2020 this would not work due to the salience of the PRC issue.  In 2024 it might.  This is why you see DPP Lai focusing so much on PRC "election interference" as a theme to counter KMT Hou's rural Southern low-education Pan-Green push.

As for Wu, both she and DPP VP candidate Hsiao, as I mentioned before, speak English similar to a native American.  Wu barely knows Hoklo which reflects her high-income urban upbringing.  Both Wu and Hsiao speak Mandarin as I, and some of my cousins, would speak it: somewhat artificial and clearly from someone who spent decades in the USA.

[jaichind]

There was a rally a couple of days ago for all New Taipei City DPP MP candidates which DPP Prez Tsai, DPP Lai, and DPP VP candidate Hsiao also participated in.  羅致政(Lo Chih-Cheng) appeared on the poster (second row far left) for the event but was a no-show.  This was on the same day as the alleged unauthorized audio clip of Lo speaking to Tsai privately in 2019 came out.  It seems DPP Prez Tsai did not want to be on the same stage as Lo despite Lo being well-known as a Tsai faction MP within the DPP


Then yesterday DPP Lai and DPP VP candidate Hsiao held an international press conference where a key theme was PRC election interference.  What is funny is DPP Lai made no mention of the 羅致政(Lo Chih-Cheng) sex tapes and the Tsia-Lo private conversation audio tapes as examples of such interference.  I think the DPP camp is coming to terms that these tapes are most likely real and not a PRC plant.

I am pretty much flipping my call for New Taipei 7th (Green +1) which is 羅致政(Lo Chih-Cheng)'s district from lean DPP to lean KMT at this stage.

[jaichind]

I can hardly blame them:

Hong Kongers in Taiwan firmly support the ruling party after watching China erode freedoms at home

As Taiwan’s presidential election approaches, many immigrants from Hong Kong, witnesses to the alarming erosion of civil liberties at home, are supporting the ruling Democratic Progressive Party.

Beijing’s crackdown on dissent in the financial hub has cemented their preference for a party committed to preserving Taiwan’s de facto independence and democratic values ahead of the Jan. 13 vote.

While Taiwanese immigration policies have been less welcoming than some from Hong Kong anticipated, most remain steadfast in their support for the DPP, largely due to the party’s firm stance on autonomy from Beijing, according to interviews with 10 Hong Kongers, over half of whom moved to Taiwan after the 2019 anti-government protests.

Well, for people from HK who went to ROC in the aftermath of the HK protests of 2019-2020, it is clear they will be for DPP as the most anti-PRC party.  Many of them have gone back to HK or other parts of the world.  The employment situation on ROC is not great outside the tech sector.  There are plenty of jobs but they are mostly low-paying and compensation is quite stagnant due to tenure-based pay.  To be fair, for someone without highly marketable skills, the labor market situation in HK is no better.   But for someone from HK being in HK is better than in ROC from an employment/compensation point of view given the likely level of local connections.  So only the most hardline anti-PRC elements from HK that moved to ROC in 2019-2021 would end up staying.

[jaichind]

There were a bunch of rallies over the weekend.  The DPP and KMT rallies were larger than the TPP rallies but overall TPP outperformed these rallies in terms of size given their limited resources and ground game.  Overall there are no signs of TPP Ko collapse and he should be set to retain a vote share in the low 20s which is just enough to give TPP Lai the edge.  So unless something dramatic takes place, like Guo coming out to back KMT Hou, we are still set for a narrow DPP Lai victory.  On the legislative side the clear KMT lead is also consolidating so the only question is if KMT and allies can win a majority on their own.

[jaichind]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-67920168

"China satellite launch triggers air raid alert in Taiwan ahead of election"

The initial alert was that a PRC missile was over ROC-controlled airspace.  Then it turns out it was a satellite launch.    This seems another attempt by the DPP to create tensions right before an election.  The problem with this alert is

a) PRC announce this satellite launch weeks in advance
b) There were at least 3 such satellite launches in 2023 without triggering any air raid alert.

Overall, even in pro-DPP circles, once the truth came out (satellite launch vs a real missile), this move was mostly laughed at as the DPP trying too hard to cash in on the anti-PRC vote

[jaichind]

For the first time, KMT-backed TPP candidate for Taichung 1st district (Green+1) 蔡壁如(Tsai Pi-Ru) speaks at a KMT Hou rally in Taichung.  She did not appear on the stage at the same time as KMT Hou but used a microphone with the Hou-Chao label on it when she spoke.

Tsai has been with TPP Ko for 20+ years and was his COF when Ko was the mayor of Taipei.  She was easily the #2 in TPP until the arrival of former PFP MLA 黃珊珊(Huang Shan-Shan) and former NPP Chairperson 黃國昌(Huang Kuo-Chang).  This move suggests that a TPP split might be coming soon after the election.

[jaichind]

What the race looks like based on what each camp seems to imply by the way they speak about the race without mentioning numbers:

DPP:
DPP Lai       44
KMT Hou     28
TPP Ko        28

KMT:
DPP Lai      40
KMT Hou    39
TPP Ko       21

TPP:
DPP Lai     36
TPP Ko      33
KMT Hou   31

My narrative is very close to the KMT narrative and consistent with mainstream polling before the blackout period.  The TPP narrative is more about making assumptions about youth turnout.   The DPP narrative is more about a reversion to the state of the race in August 2023.  I guess we will find out on election night.

[jaichind]

Final main ad from each camp

DPP - the "On the Road" ad.  Main message: DPP Lai will continue the progress under DPP Prez Tsai
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4kGNldUQGw&ab_channel=%E8%B3%B4%E6%B8%85%E5%BE%B7

KMT: KMT has the talent to take over and be effective as the ruling party
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hw566Yu08UU&ab_channel=%E4%BE%AF%E5%8F%8B%E5%AE%9Chouyuih

TPP: Believe in a new paradigm in politics 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CloGeMJYokw&ab_channel=%E6%9F%AF%E6%96%87%E5%93%B2

[jaichind]

If you read over the various seat-by-seat projections from "mainstream" commentators on the legislative races and take the medium you get

a) District seats 73  (In 2020 it was DPP+ 50 KMT+ 23)
Safe KMT+   26   Lean KMT+ 9   Tossup KMT+ 3   = 38 or (35-39)
Safe DPP+    26  Lean DPP+ 8    Tossup DPP+ 1    = 35 or (34-38)

I have it at an even more optimistic for the KMT  KMT+ 41 DPP+ 32 mostly based on TPP PR pro-KMT tactical vote in the North (there are two seats in the North where the consensus is lean DPP but I have KMT winning them in addition to the KMT winning all 4 near pure tossups).

The entire district seat projection comes down to what you believe more: DPP incumbency advantage in swing seats or the power of KMT-TPP anti-DPP vote consolidation.


b) Aborgine seats 6 (in 2020 it was KMT+ 4 DPP+ 2)
KMT+  4-5
DPP+   1-2

I have it at KMT 4 DPP 2 - I think DPP being in power 8 years must had some effect of clawing over some Aborigine votes even if on the whole that voting bloc is still very Blue.


c) PR (In 2020 it was DPP 13 KMT 13 TPP 5 NPP 3)
KMT  13-14
DPP   12-13
TPP     7-8

I have it at KMT 14 DPP 13 TPP 7 - I think that any youth surge is overestimated and will hit the TPP PR vote.


d) Total (In 2020 it was DPP+ 65 KMT+ 40 TPP 5 NPP 3)
KMT+   52-58  (possible KMT+ majority but most likely falling short)
DPP+    47-53 (in theory DPP could be SLP but it is unlikely)
TPP         7-8

I have it at KMT+ 59 DPP+ 47 TPP 7

Note that most of these "mainstream" commentators have the Prez race at a very narrow DPP Lai victory over KMT Hou with TPP Ko fairly far behind.  That matches the KMT narrative and not the DPP or TPP narrative so understand these average projections might be overestimating KMT+.  

Of course, my own current projection has KMT+ having a small but safe majority which is clearly out of the mainstream.

[jaichind]

Even though he appeared at KMT events with KMT Hou and praised KMT Hou a week ago, PFP Chairperson Soong (who ran in 2000 2004 (as VP) 2012 2016 2020) formally endorsed KMT Hou as part of Pan-Blue consolidation.  Soong was fairly close to TPP Ko back in the 2020 cycle and TPP Ko had hoped PFP Soong would either back him or at least stay neutral but now Soong makes it formal by backing KMT Hou.  This is mostly likely worth around 0.5% of the vote at this stage but I guess still worth having.

[jaichind]

To show the power of the TPP internet army, TPP Ko's YouTube channel reaches 1 million subscribers.  DPP Lai is 216K and KMT Hou is 34K which reflects the relative strength of the three with activist youth and internet power.  This is ominous for both DPP Lai and KMT Hou but especially DPP Lai since activist youth power was clearly on the side of DPP Prez Tsai in 2016 and 2020.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-does-not-consider-china-satellite-launch-election-interference-2024-01-09/

"China satellite launch causes pre-election political storm in Taiwan"

Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics who tracks space launches, told Reuters the first stage of the rocket landed well inside China, and the second stage flew over Taiwan at a height comparable to that of the International Space Station.

"It was far up in space and indeed entered orbit well before crossing the coast of mainland China. So I think this is an overreaction by Taiwan. Satellites fly over Taiwan every day," he said.

The initial alert people on ROC got was that it was a missile and it was over ROC-controlled airspace neither of which ended up being true since by the time the satellite was over ROC-controlled airspace it was high enough not to count as ROC-controlled airspace anymore


The PRC also put out a statement saying something like "We do this stuff all the time (launching satellites which might end up over ROC controlled space) so we have no idea why the current authorities on ROCis making such a big deal of this"

[jaichind]

DPP incumbent of New Taipei 7th district (Green +1) 羅致政(Lo Chih-Cheng) tape saga continues.  The KMT said they received another batch of sex tapes involving Lo.  Since Lo and DPP already claimed that the previous sex tapes and private audio tapes of the private conversation between DPP Prez Tsai and Lo were all fakes created by the PRC, the KMT said they would hand over those new Lo sex tapes to the prosecution and investigative agencies since as per DPP and Lo these new tapes then, logically, are also PRC fakes.

These endless tapes on Lo are vicious and could only be done by enemies within the DPP who want to wreck Lo's political career so the can get ahead. 

[jaichind]

Former DPP Prez Chen came out with this cryptic picture with the label "Taiwan's Choice"



Given the use by TPP Ko's campaign of various animal costumes (including frogs) at his rallies, many are reading this picture as an implicit endorsement of Chen for TPP Ko.  Chen cannot openly oppose the DPP candidate so if that was his intention this would be one subtle way to do it.  

If indeed to implicitly back TPP Ko was Chen's desire then the reasons are obvious.   Chen is still out on medical probation from his sentence for corruption.  Chen wants to be pardoned which only the ROC Prez can do.  The reality is that given the DPP's need to distance themselves from the legacy of corruption from DPP Prez Chen's second term the chances of a pardon from a ROC president is TPP > KMT > DPP.  Clearly, Chen will not endorse a KMT candidate so it will have to be TPP Ko.

[jaichind]

The old 2014-2022 Huang faction KMT county magistrate of Miaoli County 徐耀昌 (Hsu Yao-Chang) de facto endorse DPP Lai.  This has to do with continued Liu vs Huang faction battles leftover from the 2022 county magistrate election. 

The Huang faction KMT rebel won in 2022 over the official Liu faction KMT candidate.  For a while, both the KMT rebel county magistrate and Huang faction former county magistrate Hsu were going to back a Guo-Ko alliance.  Once Guo pulled out and KMT-TPP talks failed the Huang faction KMT rebel county magistrate went back to back the KMT.  Hsu was expected to back TPP Ko.  The Liu faction pushed the KMT to expel Hsu for his attempts to help Guo get the signatures to get on the ballot which was done in late Summer.  Since then many expected Hsu to back campaign for TPP Ko.  It seems instead he chose to make a low-key endorsement of DPP Lai.  I guess this is sort of a "tactical endorsement" since TPP Ko is unlikely to win so if Hsu is going to break with the KMT it might as well be for someone that is likely to win.

Hsu had rebelled against the KMT before.  He had joined the PFP in the early 200s and in 2005 he ran as a pro-PFP candidate against the Liu faction KMT candidate.  Eventually, he made peace with the KMT and got the KMT's support to run for county magistrate in 2014 and 2018.

Deep Blue 苗栗縣(Miaoli County) KMT civil war is really a war between the Liu vs Huang factions along with an internal war within the Huang faction.

The Liu and Huang factions were formed in 1951 during the first election for county executive with the founders Liu and Huang both running as KMT candidates ending in a narrow victory for Liu.  But this election became the basis of the two factions with Huang emerging somewhat stronger.  The KMT would alternate between the two factions and try to arrange for the speaker of the county assembly to be from a different faction than the current county executive.  This did not prevent rebellions from the opposing factions.  Also within both Liu and Huang factions there developed subfractions.  The DPP emerged in the 1980s here as part of a split within the Huang faction where part of the Huang faction became proto-DPP.

The 1989-2005 county executive elections saw KMT civil wars every election with the first few being Hunag faction civil wars

1989
KMT           44.54% (Huang faction)
proto-DPP   29.03% (Huang faction rebel)
KMT rebel   26.43% (Liu faction)


1993
KMT rebel   38.25% (Huang faction rebel)
KMT           33.58% (Huang faction) (incumbent)
DPP            25.40% (Huang faction background)

The KMT rebel rejoined the KMT after the election under the de facto rule "if you win you are KMT" which is similar to "if you win you are LDP" in Japan.


1997
KMT rebel   54.80% (Huang faction rebel)
KMT           35.37% (Huang faction) (incumbent) (won in 1993 as KMT Huang faction rebel)
NP               5.66%
DPP             4.17%

KMT Huang faction rebels had good relations with the ex-Huang faction rebel and the Huang faction-dominated DPP and the entire DPP vote shifted to him to defeat the KMT incumbent


2001
KMT rebel   51.80% (Huang faction rebel) (incumbent) (backed by PFP)
KMT           23.88% (Liu faction)
DPP            23.55%


2005
KMT           47.91% (Liu faction) (first Hoklo county executive elected)
DPP            29.86%
KMT rebel   17.07% (Huang faction) (backed by PFP)
KMT rebel    3.47% (Liu faction rebel)

2009 2014 and 2018 saw the Liu vs Huang faction battle contained.  The Liu faction incumbent elected in 2005 was re-elected in 2009 without any harassment from the Huang faction.  In return, the Liu faction backed the Huang faction candidate running as a KMT rebel in 2005 to run in 2014 and win.  In 2014 there was a threat from the old Liu faction incumbent from 2005-2014 to run against the Huang faction incumbent in 2014 but was talked by the KMT high command out of it on the basis that in 2022 it will be the Liu faction's turn again.  During this period it was clear that the Pan-Green vote has risen to 35% which does mean the KMT risks losing to DPP if the KMT vote is split down the middle which helps create a tense peace between the two factions.

Now in 2022, the Huang faction incumbent is backing his fellow Huang faction county assembly speaker (note that with a Liu faction county executive the county assembly speaker is certainly to be Huang faction) to run against the Liu faction official KMT candidate.  Note this move has split the Huang faction as well.  The old Huang faction rebel incumbent of 1997-2005 is backing the Liu faction official candidate and saying that the Huang faction rebellion is a renegade operation that does not have the full support of the Huang faction.

[jaichind]

DPP incumbent of New Taipei 7th district (Green +1) 羅致政(Lo Chih-Cheng) tape blasts continue.  Another 20+ sex videos came out with him and other women.  Also after the release of the audio tapes where he, illegally, taped his private conversation with DPP Prez Tsai there is another release of the audio tapes where he taped his private conversation with DPP PM Su, it seems in 2019.

It seems what is going on is Lo most likely uploaded all his "tapes" (video and audio) into the cloud and someone, most likely someone inside his office,  got his password and gave all these files to Lo's internal DPP enemies.

At this stage, Lo is not bothering to respond to these new releases and the DPP has mostly stopped trying to defend him.  The DPP at this stage seems to be just ignoring Lo and just hoping the damage is just limited to his seat.