2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th
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  2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th
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jaichind
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« Reply #50 on: February 09, 2023, 09:34:52 AM »

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3209691/senior-politician-taiwans-opposition-kmt-meets-mainland-chinese-official-beijing-closed-door-talks

"Senior politician from Taiwan’s opposition KMT meets mainland Chinese official in Beijing for closed-door talks"

The KMT, which has been on the defensive regarding PRC-ROC relations since 2014 and especially in 2019 with the HK protests, now seems much more open to openly working with the PRC.  The KMT seems to have sensed an opening with subtle changes in ROC public opinion where the topic of PRC-ROC relationships will not be a vote loser for KMT.

What seems to have turned the tide is the Russia-Ukraine war.  Even though most ROC get their news on the war from Western MSM and is mostly convinced Russia will lose, more and more see the war in terms of the USA getting Ukraine to take the hit for them to weaken Russia.  If this view grows then that gives the KMT an opening to gain support on this issue.

You can already see both Hou and Ko trying out this opening.  Hou's statement on "we will not be a pawn of a superpower" already alludes to his line that ROC will not be turned into a Ukraine as an electoral appeal.  Ko's "we will be equidistant between the two superpowers" is of a similar tone.
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jaichind
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« Reply #51 on: February 09, 2023, 12:42:21 PM »

After the plagiarism  fiasco of 2022 local elections the new DPP Chairperson Lai is making all DPP candidates that want to enter the DPP primary for 2020 elections to sign this form



Where the DPP candidate will confirm that he/she did not engage in plagiarism in the degrees they
listed on the form.

Loophole. The DPP candidate can just no register on the forms a degree they do not want to swear that there was no plagiarism.
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jaichind
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« Reply #52 on: February 11, 2023, 10:54:04 AM »
« Edited: February 11, 2023, 10:57:28 AM by jaichind »

The 媽祖(Matsu) cult idol 9-day march across Taiwan Province kicks off today.  This year it is expected that over 110K people will participate.  媽祖(Matsu) cult is based on a 林默(Lin Mo) who lived around 960AD in Fujian Province and gave her life in performed miracles to rescue her fisherman father stranded at sea.  The 媽祖(Matsu) cult is popular in Southern Chinese provinces along the ocean, especially with fishermen.

Possible KMT Prez candidate Terry Guo is a famous member of the cult.




Even DPP Prez Tsai showed up to help kick it off.  Of course, she and many of the others are still wearing this stupid mask.  Sigh.
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jaichind
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« Reply #53 on: February 14, 2023, 05:40:41 AM »

The scale of the 媽祖(Matsu) cult idol 9-day march across Taiwan Province seems to have been upgraded.  It is now expected that over 150K people will take part versus the estimate of the 110K a few days ago and this projection is expected to go up.  Both the KMT and DPP are getting into the act to try to get involved and scoop up as many of these 150K voters as possible.  Historically the 媽祖(Matsu) cult hierarchy tends to lean toward KMT even as members of the cult lean toward DPP.  This year the KMT seems to believe that given the recent DPP lean toward the urban North under Tsai they can try to get some of this vote.  On the other hand, likely DPP Prez candidate Lai is a good fit for the typical member of the cult.
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jaichind
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« Reply #54 on: February 15, 2023, 09:16:06 AM »

Pro-DPP FSR poll on 2024 Prez elections with different combinations

DPP Lai     37.3
TPP Ko      32.7
KMT Chu   10.7

KMT Hou   33.8
DPP Lai     30.4
TPP Ko      19.9

KMT Guo   32.1
DPP Lai     31.4
TPP Ko      20.5

Ind Guo    32.2  (with TPP and Ko support most likely  with Ko as VP candidate)
DPP Lai     28.8
KMT Hou   24.4



The purpose of the poll clearly is to goad Guo to form an alliance with Ko and run as a third front candidate to cut into the KMT vote.
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jaichind
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« Reply #55 on: February 15, 2023, 09:42:56 AM »

ETToday poll on what would you do if the PRC invades

Would not resist and would not support family member resisting   22.5
What can you do, will support the government                             20.2
Will fight the invasion                                                                19.6
Will find a way to avoid this conflict                                            18.4
Escape                                                                                       4.2
Surrender                                                                                   3.8



If you categorize the answers

Resist invasion              39.8
Will not resist invasion   30.5
Avoid conflict                18.4 (which would be lean not resist as the invasion has started already)
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jaichind
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« Reply #56 on: February 15, 2023, 12:13:24 PM »

Terry Guo indicates that he is interested in running for Prez on the KMT ticket and will await clarification on the KMT nomination process before he takes the next steps.  So he is not officially in the race but can now be viewed as a pre-candidate.
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jaichind
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« Reply #57 on: February 16, 2023, 05:26:38 AM »

It seems a rational DPP strategy for 2024 would be to hope for a breakdown in the USA-PRC relationship and then make that a key issue of the election.  In that situation, the DPP is hoping for a split in the KMT hierarchy between are pro-PRC and pro-USA factions.  People like Hou and even Ko see this risk ergo they are preemptively pushing an "equidistant" between USA and PRC lines.  The effectiveness of the likely DPP strategy depends on how bad the USA-PRC conflict in 2023 gets.  The DPP is betting that the House GOP and Biden will get into a competitive anti-PRC bidding race and the relationship will get worse throughout 2023.
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xelas81
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« Reply #58 on: February 16, 2023, 11:46:04 AM »
« Edited: February 16, 2023, 11:58:17 AM by xelas81 »

It seems a rational DPP strategy for 2024 would be to hope for a breakdown in the USA-PRC relationship and then make that a key issue of the election.  In that situation, the DPP is hoping for a split in the KMT hierarchy between are pro-PRC and pro-USA factions.  People like Hou and even Ko see this risk ergo they are preemptively pushing an "equidistant" between USA and PRC lines.  The effectiveness of the likely DPP strategy depends on how bad the USA-PRC conflict in 2023 gets.  The DPP is betting that the House GOP and Biden will get into a competitive anti-PRC bidding race and the relationship will get worse throughout 2023.

Is there any evidence that US-PRC relationship will improve in the near future? Feels like hawks are winning the debate in both US and PRC.
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jaichind
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« Reply #59 on: February 16, 2023, 12:08:03 PM »

It seems a rational DPP strategy for 2024 would be to hope for a breakdown in the USA-PRC relationship and then make that a key issue of the election.  In that situation, the DPP is hoping for a split in the KMT hierarchy between are pro-PRC and pro-USA factions.  People like Hou and even Ko see this risk ergo they are preemptively pushing an "equidistant" between USA and PRC lines.  The effectiveness of the likely DPP strategy depends on how bad the USA-PRC conflict in 2023 gets.  The DPP is betting that the House GOP and Biden will get into a competitive anti-PRC bidding race and the relationship will get worse throughout 2023.

Is there any evidence that US-PRC relationship will improve in the near future? Feels like hawks are winning the debate in both US and PRC.

I doubt it.  I am pretty sure the GOP will run on the "Biden is too hard on Russia and too soft on PRC" line in 2024.  And this is what the DPP is counting on to try to win.
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jaichind
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« Reply #60 on: February 17, 2023, 07:17:28 PM »

The pro-KMT media launched another hit piece against DPP Prez Tsai and her doctoral dissertation.  I do not know why they bother but this attack does bring into view much much DPP Prez Tsai and DPP PM Chen were product of a historical accident.

Back in 2020 pro-KMT groups claimed that DPP Prez Tsai's London School of Economics  doctoral dissertation was either a fraud or plagiarized.  LSE came out and confirmed that DPP Prez Tsai does indeed does have doctorate but refused to release her dissertation based on Tsai's request.  In the end the story had smoke and no fire so that KMT attack went nowhere.

This most recent attack is around how DPP Prez Tsai got an academic teaching position in 1983 based on a "pending doctorate from LSE" which in theory was against the rules.  Most likely this attack will go nowhere and I do not see any point in it since Tsai will be gone from the scene in a year or so.

The 1983 Tsai application for an academic position on ROC which was filed while she was still working on her doctorate in the UK LSE.

 
BTW the reason this took place is quite clear.  This is not a well known fact but DPP Prez Tsai comes from an extremely wealthy and deep Blue family in 屏東縣(Pingtung County).  Her family was very connected to the local KMT.  Her father had several wives and Tsai was the daughter of one of the more minor wives so her position among her siblings was not high and was not going to run her family business. But she was very bright so her father sent her to study abroad.  So when the academic establishment gave Tsai an academic position without a doctorate degree it was almost certainly her family using their connections with the KMT to get around the rules.  Tsai later became an accomplished academic on ROC with a focus on international trade law.  This is very similar to DPP PM Chen who came from a prominent KMT family but perused a successful academic career in medicine.
 
Both Chen and Tsai got their big break in 2000 when the DPP unexpectedly won the Prez election due to the split of the Pan-Blue camp.  The DPP was not planning on winning until something like 2008 and was caught off-guard.  The DPP did not have enough talent to fill the cabinet and recruited both Tsai and Chen as trusted academics.  They knew both were from pro-KMT families and were most likely light Blue but felt they were not partisan.

Tsai joined the DPP in 2001 only because DPP Prez Chen wanted her to be an MP for a couple of years in order to promote her more in the DPP administration.  Tsai could only become a MP by being on the DPP PR list which meant Tsai had to join the DPP.  Tsai later became DPM in the second Chen administration.   Note that this entire time Tsai family and their business empire continued to be pro-KMT.  After the 2008 landslide defeat of the DPP, Tsai decided to run for DPP Chairperson and won mostly because no one else wanted the job.  Tsai saved the DPP by convincing her wealthy siblings to help pay off the DPP debts and then went on to prove herself to be an effective political candidate.

Both DPP Prez Tsai and DPP PM Chen almost certainly voted KMT in 1996 and 2000 but now are at the top of the DPP regime.

This is the opposite story of like KMT Prez candidate Hou.  Hou was in police for his entire career and in the 1990s was most likely light green mostly because the Taipei County (now 新北市(New Taipei City)) government where he worked were controlled by the DPP during the 1989-2005 period.  It is very likely voted DPP in 2000 and 2004.  Hou only got involved in politics after 2010 when 新北市(New Taipei City) recruiting him to enter politics (hoping to use Hou's network as chief of police in the city for benefit Chu politically) and as a result Hou joined the KMT.

So the likely KMT candidate for Prez in 2024 most likely voted DPP in 2000 and 2004 while the current DPP Prez and DPP PM most likely voted KMT in 1996 and 2000.
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jaichind
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« Reply #61 on: February 19, 2023, 05:59:47 PM »

https://www.ft.com/content/8d1cbbc6-bbd1-4d8a-a7f2-4108f3d65b96

"White House to hold secret talks with Taiwan officials in Washington"

Well, it is not much of a secret if is being published in the FT.   
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jaichind
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« Reply #62 on: February 23, 2023, 03:42:25 PM »

DPP renegade pollster TPOF party ID poll (change from Jan)

KMT 27.1 (+5.6)
TPP 12.3 (-8.0)
NPP   1.1 (-3.2)
DPP 26.9 (+0.8 )
TSP   1.0 (-3.3)



TPOF has historically been too youth heavy and as a result over-polls TPP NPP TSP and to some extent DPP and under poll KMT.  They either had an adjustment in method or there has been a big swing away from youth heavy parties
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jaichind
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« Reply #63 on: February 25, 2023, 05:38:51 AM »

The new spokesperson for the PM office 陳宗彥(Chen Tsung-Yen) had to resign 17 days after taking his role.  It seems that 10 years ago while having a senior role in the Tainan City government he was engaged in many encounters with escorts.  That by itself is no big deal but is a big deal when you do that while having a senior government role given the risk of blackmail.  When this came out he had to resign. 

The timing of this scandal is funny.  Over the last 10 years, he had several senior government roles in local and central government.  But none of this came out.  One key fact about him is that he is very close to Lai.  So as soon as Lai took over as Chairperson of DPP this scandal came out.  Many read this is a warning from Tsai to Lai to the effect of "most likely I cannot stop you from being the DPP candidate, but you better play ball with me or else I have more 'bombs' about you and your faction ready to release."
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jaichind
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« Reply #64 on: February 25, 2023, 06:24:16 AM »
« Edited: February 25, 2023, 06:31:58 AM by jaichind »

One obstacle to Guo getting the KMT nomination is that he has few allies in the Pan-Blue media.   Especially problematic is that Gao has an especially bad relationship with another billionaire 蔡衍明(Tsai Eng-meng) who controls the "Want Want China" group and with it the Chinatimes media empire.

蔡衍明(Tsai Eng-meng) is deep Blue and strongly pro-unification and his Chinatimes media empire dominates the Pan-Blue media space with lighter Blue TVBS being a strong second in the Pan-Blue media space.  Both Tsai and Guo have huge egos and even though both are fairly aligned in ideology they have terrible personal relationships.    This election cycle Chinatimes seem much more pro-Hou and even at times pro-Ko.



蔡衍明(Tsai Eng-meng) is an interesting case of how money shapes one's politics.  蔡衍明(Tsai Eng-meng) comes from a powerful business family (mostly in the food industry) that has always been anti-KMT and had family members that were purged during the 228 anti-KMT uprising in 1947.  蔡衍明(Tsai Eng-meng) in his youth was so anti-KMT he refused to speak Mandarin and his growing business was clearly for the opposition.  The big change came in 1991 when Tsai made the call to expand his business to the PRC.  He then had massive business success in the PRC and along the way completely changed his political position to a pro-KMT pro-PRC political Chinese nationalist orientation over the next 20 years.

This is the opposite of another billionaire 曹興誠(Robert Tsao) who was born on the Mainland into a strongly pro-KMT family.  He grew his semiconductor business along with the KMT and had strong Chinese nationalist views.  He also expanded his business to the PRC in the 1990s and was very vocal about Chinese reunification.  Throughout the 2010s his business floundered on the PRC and his relationship with CCP became very tense.  As a result, he did a radical shift to become Deep Green and is now very anti-CPP and pro-Indepedence (or at least very anti-unification) in his orientation.



The political position of 蔡衍明(Tsai Eng-meng) and 曹興誠(Robert Tsao) is exactly the opposite of what you would expect given their background in their youth.
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jaichind
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« Reply #65 on: February 26, 2023, 05:59:19 AM »

Japan's Sankei Shimbun reports that ROC Prez might visit the USA in August at the request of USA GOP House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.  She might speak at her Alam Mater of Cornell (much like in 1995 ROC Prez Lee also did and also at Cornell), speak at a Think Tank, or just pass through the USA en route to a Latin America visit.

If true most likely USA GOP House Speaker Kevin McCarthy trying to outflank Biden on the PRC issue.  It is also possible this news story was fed by the Tsai camp to make sure she stays relevant as DPP VP and new DPP Chairperson and likely 2024 DPP Prez candidate Lai consolidates more power within the DPP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #66 on: February 27, 2023, 04:19:22 AM »

The way ROC media covers the Russia-Ukraine war is telling.  In the first half of the year, it was the Pan-Green channels that were heavy in coverage.  Their message was "the USA supports democratic Ukraine to beat back the incompetent Russians.  USA will do the same for us against the more incompetent PRC".  As time went on these messages weakened as the war reached a stalemate.  Now it is the pan-Blue channels that harp on the war.  Their message seems to be "Russia might, in the end, be defeated but Ukraine seems to be destroyed as a nation and is collaborate damage from a USA plan to weaken Russia.  We must not allow us to be turned into another Ukraine." The pan-Green channels, in the meantime, have shifted back to the "PRC is evil" narrative and avoid talking about the Russian-Ukraine war.
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jaichind
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« Reply #67 on: March 03, 2023, 12:31:33 PM »

https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202303010020

"Revisions to divisive mobilization act not finalized: Presidential Office"

The DPP administration came out with a proposed amendment to the All-out Defense Mobilization Readiness Act which would include more government regulations of the media as well as greater government monitoring of people of draftable ages.   After getting hammered by the opposition for a few days it seems the government decided to backtrack after it became that this idea is a vote loser for the DPP in 2024.  In fact, the DPP legislative caucus is now coming out that they had no idea that this opposed change was on the table just to avoid getting hit by this.

It seems clear this move was most likely due to pressure from the USA on the DPP regime to make sure the ROC is on a more ready footing if a conflict with the PRC breaks out.   For now, this is off the table given the fact that DPP prospects would get hurt in 2024 if they go ahead with something like this.
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jaichind
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« Reply #68 on: March 03, 2023, 12:46:19 PM »
« Edited: March 03, 2023, 12:54:44 PM by jaichind »

The prosecution is now going to indite a bunch of people in the 臺南市(Tainan City) City assembly speaker bribery case which includes both the DPP speaker and DPP deputy speaker.

The DPP speaker 邱莉莉(Chiu Li Li) started to cry when this decision was announced to her

 
There is something about 邱莉莉(Chiu Li Li) and crying.  Back in Dec when the race for assembly speaker was not going well she also broke down and cried



Of course, later on, she won that race by, what it seems now, crooked and corrupt means.

This will be a big test for DPP's Lai since these people are members of his own Southern New Tide faction.
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jaichind
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« Reply #69 on: March 04, 2023, 05:08:47 AM »

Shock victory for DPP in Nanto 2nd district by-election.

DPP 49.4%
KMT 47.3%

The by-election was necessary due to the KMT MP running and winning the county magistrate election back in December.  The KMT candidate is the old county magistrate and the DPP candidate is the losing candidate in the county magistrate election last December.

To be fair this is not that big of a shock.  There were rumors a couple of weeks ago that the KMT was in trouble here.  There is the sympathy factor for the DPP candidate but worse many local KMT factions did not support the KMT candidate due to the perception that he is hogging all the spots and trying to pave the way for his son to run in 2024 for the same seat.

Turnout was low due to, as it seems likely, some KMT factions not turning out.

Big victory for new DPP Chairperson Lai and increases his leverage over DPP Prez Tsai.

This is the first time the DPP won a MP election in Nanto since 2004.  This is a Blue +3 seat so most likely this seat will go back to KMT  in 2024 if they come up with a good candidate that the local KMT factions can get behind.
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jaichind
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« Reply #70 on: March 06, 2023, 05:33:33 PM »

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-house-speaker-mccarthy-plans-meet-taiwans-president-us-sources-2023-03-06/

"US House Speaker McCarthy plans to meet Taiwan's president in the US"

Looks like McCarthy will de-escalate and meet DPP Prez Tsai in USA when she makes a transit stop in the near future as opposed to visiting ROC. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #71 on: March 08, 2023, 06:35:33 AM »

All signs are that McCarthy not coming to ROC is really DPP Prez Tsai's idea.  My understanding of her actions are

a) She does not want to offend Biden by giving McCarthy a platform on ROC
b) DPP Post mortems on the Pelosi visit last year were that it actually hurt the DPP electorally all things equal so she does not want a repeat
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jaichind
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« Reply #72 on: March 09, 2023, 11:41:10 AM »

KMT Chairperson Chu indicated that any KMT Prez candidate "primary" will NOT include himself in any polling.  This is basically ruling himself out as a candidate for the KMT.  Of course he is reading the writing on the wall.  He is polling very badly so I guess he figure that he will be at best a king maker and not a king.
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jaichind
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« Reply #73 on: March 10, 2023, 07:31:35 AM »

In a dovish move, ROC announces the reopening of direct flights with Mainland China which were shut down at the beginning of COVID.  The PRC indicated earlier in 2022 that they were ready for the resumption of direct flights but were turned down by DPP due to their need to set the narrative in the 2022 local elections.  What is interesting is that ROC announced this on the same day Xi was re-elected as PRC Prez for his third term.  This is clearly not a coincidence and along with DPP Prez Tsai telling McCarthy not to visit ROC, it seems that DPP Prez Tsai is focused on her legacy.  It is also likely that in her assessment that rising tensions with PRC might not work to the DPP advantage in 2024 elections unlikely 2020.
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jaichind
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« Reply #74 on: March 10, 2023, 09:17:04 AM »
« Edited: March 10, 2023, 10:10:24 AM by jaichind »

KMT general secretary 黃健庭(Justin Huang), who was touted as being at the top of Guo's list as VP had he run as an independent in 2020, confirmed that KMT Chairperson Chu will not be a candidate for the KMT 2024 Prez nomination.   He also confirmed that if the KMT does draft someone to run for 2024 that someone does not have to be a KMT party member.  This paves the way for the KMT to draft Guo as an option.

With Chu out the path for the KMT becomes more clear.  If Hou or Guo publically or privately rules themselves out as a candidate for the KMT nomination then the KMT will just draft the other.  If not, then the KTM will do some private polls and share them with both Hou and Gou in hope of working out a deal where one of them steps aside for the other one to be drafted.  If that does not work then it will go to a true "primary" with debates including some minor candidates in the mix as well.

All things equal Hou is much more likely to win out.  Chu getting himself out is good for the KMT in the sense that Hou and Guo will now see him as a neutral party without his own agenda to arbitrate.   Also unlikely in 2019 when pro-Han members of the KMT insisted that they would not vote for KMT unless Han was the candidate.  This angered the light blue vote many of which defected to DPP when Han did become the KMT candidate.  There is no sign of that in the KMT base.  Losing in 2016 and 2020 made the KMT base much more meek and much more focused on winning, must likely DPP in 2014-2016.

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