2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Just saying that Crane’s seat is quite demographically similar to Boebert’s seat, and we all know how that ended up.

Boebert's seat has far more upscale ski areas and wealthy whites. Crane's is more rundown and more polarized (ie Native Americans vs rural whites).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Just saying that Crane’s seat is quite demographically similar to Boebert’s seat, and we all know how that ended up.

Nez is an infinitely stronger candidate than Frisch

Nez lost his reelection race as Navajo president. Hardly the hallmark of a strong challenger.

Frisch is an exceptionally weak candidate coasting on #AnybodyButBoebert.  In hindsight, a C-lister would have beaten Boebert by about 5-6% in 2022.  I’m not saying Nez is a rock star A-lister, but he’s a pretty solid B-list recruit for a tough district.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Judge is gonna rule in Dec of Trump gonna be on CO ballot and Adam Frisch already said don't expect any landslide it's gonna be very close but the polls had it Biden +7, we are gonna win 303/225 but are we gonna win both Districts in CO yes if Trump isn't on the ballot

[Ferguson97]

Republican Debbie Lesco (AZ-08) will not seek re-election.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Republican Debbie Lesco (AZ-08) will not seek re-election.

The most boring district in the entire state imo. Its just miles and miles of cookie cutter suburbia in the desert.

[wbrocks67]

YouGov/Yahoo has GCB tied, 43-43

YouGov/Economist has D+2, 43-41
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_uXN5Bmo.pdf

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is gonna win by 5 like last time is that gonna be a blue wave we don't know what will happen

WI is gonna be redistricting by Ds next yr so Emerson poll is irrelevant

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

YouGov/Yahoo has GCB tied, 43-43

YouGov/Economist has D+2, 43-41
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_uXN5Bmo.pdf

Party favorability-

Republicans: 32/57% (-25)
Democrats: 42/48% (-6)

[wbrocks67]

YouGov/Yahoo has GCB tied, 43-43

YouGov/Economist has D+2, 43-41
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_uXN5Bmo.pdf

Party favorability-

Republicans: 32/57% (-25)
Democrats: 42/48% (-6)

Just more proof that the GOP is given more benefit of the doubt by the public, unfortunately. They literally have been a mess for two weeks straight and their favorability shows it, and yet they're still tied in the GCB.

[Progressive Pessimist]

YouGov/Yahoo has GCB tied, 43-43

YouGov/Economist has D+2, 43-41
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_uXN5Bmo.pdf

Party favorability-

Republicans: 32/57% (-25)
Democrats: 42/48% (-6)

Just more proof that the GOP is given more benefit of the doubt by the public, unfortunately. They literally have been a mess for two weeks straight and their favorability shows it, and yet they're still tied in the GCB.

It's probably the same as the "I hate Congress, but like my representative" way if thinking.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

YouGov/Yahoo has GCB tied, 43-43

YouGov/Economist has D+2, 43-41
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_uXN5Bmo.pdf

Party favorability-

Republicans: 32/57% (-25)
Democrats: 42/48% (-6)

Just more proof that the GOP is given more benefit of the doubt by the public, unfortunately. They literally have been a mess for two weeks straight and their favorability shows it, and yet they're still tied in the GCB.

This exact comment could've been made at almost any time in the last decade

[Ferguson97]

YouGov/Yahoo has GCB tied, 43-43

YouGov/Economist has D+2, 43-41
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_uXN5Bmo.pdf

Party favorability-

Republicans: 32/57% (-25)
Democrats: 42/48% (-6)

Just more proof that the GOP is given more benefit of the doubt by the public, unfortunately. They literally have been a mess for two weeks straight and their favorability shows it, and yet they're still tied in the GCB.

If you look at the crosstabs, it's because there's a huge portion of Republicans who view their own party unfavorably

Favorability of Democrats in Congress
(among Democrats): 88% favorable / 9% unfavorable
(among Independents): 29% favorable / 52% unfavorable
(among Republicans): 8% favorable / 86% unfavorable

Favorability of Republicans in Congress
(among Democrats): 14% favorable / 79% unfavorable
(among Independents): 21% favorable / 59% unfavorable
(among Republicans): 63% favorable / 31% unfavorable

[wbrocks67]

YouGov/Yahoo has GCB tied, 43-43

YouGov/Economist has D+2, 43-41
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_uXN5Bmo.pdf

Party favorability-

Republicans: 32/57% (-25)
Democrats: 42/48% (-6)

Just more proof that the GOP is given more benefit of the doubt by the public, unfortunately. They literally have been a mess for two weeks straight and their favorability shows it, and yet they're still tied in the GCB.

If you look at the crosstabs, it's because there's a huge portion of Republicans who view their own party unfavorably

Favorability of Democrats in Congress
(among Democrats): 88% favorable / 9% unfavorable
(among Independents): 29% favorable / 52% unfavorable
(among Republicans): 8% favorable / 86% unfavorable

Favorability of Republicans in Congress
(among Democrats): 14% favorable / 79% unfavorable
(among Independents): 21% favorable / 59% unfavorable
(among Republicans): 63% favorable / 31% unfavorable

True, but look at Independents in this sample. Dems are -23 for them, while Reps are much worse at -38. Yet Independents actually (slightly) favor Republicans here in the GCB!

[Pericles]

YouGov/Yahoo has GCB tied, 43-43

YouGov/Economist has D+2, 43-41
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_uXN5Bmo.pdf

Party favorability-

Republicans: 32/57% (-25)
Democrats: 42/48% (-6)

Just more proof that the GOP is given more benefit of the doubt by the public, unfortunately. They literally have been a mess for two weeks straight and their favorability shows it, and yet they're still tied in the GCB.

If you look at the crosstabs, it's because there's a huge portion of Republicans who view their own party unfavorably

Favorability of Democrats in Congress
(among Democrats): 88% favorable / 9% unfavorable
(among Independents): 29% favorable / 52% unfavorable
(among Republicans): 8% favorable / 86% unfavorable

Favorability of Republicans in Congress
(among Democrats): 14% favorable / 79% unfavorable
(among Independents): 21% favorable / 59% unfavorable
(among Republicans): 63% favorable / 31% unfavorable

Wow surprising how popular Democrats are with their voters.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

That same YouGov poll has the Democrats with a +32 favorability rating amongst 18-29 year olds, which is super refreshing. I just wish they'd actually, ya know, vote. An entire generation of Americans have the power to destroy the Republican Party, but alas...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://x.com/Politics_Polls/status/1716214553803919590?s=20

It's a 303 map

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Yes, Trump will win with a Democratic Senate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, Trump will win with a Democratic Senate.

Lol he's not winning with WI, MI and PA with Ds in control of state legislature Kavanaugh ordered a redraw of WI and AL state legislature how many times has this been said

[WalterWhite]

Recent history suggests that Biden is probably going to outperform Congressional Democrats. Ever since 1996, the general election right after Congressional Democrats lost their grip on Southern states, Democratic Presidential candidates have outperformed Congressional Democrats in all but one general election: 2008.

1996 was Clinton+8.5% but D+0.1% in the House
2000 was Gore+0.5% but R+0.5% in the House
2004 was Bush+2.4% but R+2.6% in the House
2008 was Obama+7.2% but D+10.6% in the House (the one exception)
2012 was Obama+3.9% but D+1.2% in the House
2016 was Clinton+2.1% but R+1.1% in the House
2020 was Biden+4.5% but D+3.1% in the House

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Recent history suggests that Biden is probably going to outperform Congressional Democrats. Ever since 1996, the general election right after Congressional Democrats lost their grip on Southern states, Democratic Presidential candidates have outperformed Congressional Democrats in all but one general election: 2008.

1996 was Clinton+8.5% but D+0.1% in the House
2000 was Gore+0.5% but R+0.5% in the House
2004 was Bush+2.4% but R+2.6% in the House
2008 was Obama+7.2% but D+10.6% in the House (the one exception)
2012 was Obama+3.9% but D+1.2% in the House
2016 was Clinton+2.1% but R+1.1% in the House
2020 was Biden+4.5% but D+3.1% in the House

In 2020 when Biden barely outperformed Congressional Ds, Biden had a 52% favorability. Now he’s down to 40% approvals, while Rs have a speakership debacle under their belt. Also, our likely economic environment is similar to 2008, the exception year.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Recent history suggests that Biden is probably going to outperform Congressional Democrats. Ever since 1996, the general election right after Congressional Democrats lost their grip on Southern states, Democratic Presidential candidates have outperformed Congressional Democrats in all but one general election: 2008.

1996 was Clinton+8.5% but D+0.1% in the House
2000 was Gore+0.5% but R+0.5% in the House
2004 was Bush+2.4% but R+2.6% in the House
2008 was Obama+7.2% but D+10.6% in the House (the one exception)
2012 was Obama+3.9% but D+1.2% in the House
2016 was Clinton+2.1% but R+1.1% in the House
2020 was Biden+4.5% but D+3.1% in the House

In 2020 when Biden barely outperformed Congressional Ds, Biden had a 52% favorability. Now he’s down to 40% approvals, while Rs have a speakership debacle under their belt. Also, our likely economic environment is similar to 2008, the exception year.

Zogby/Rassy has Biden at 51/49 Harris X is polling just like Premise does cmon it's 4 percentage pts unemployment

Rassy used to be Rs number 2pollster until he has Biden ahead and 1 was MXDX cmon Rs need to be reasonable I don't see Biden losing Blue wall we replicate in 23 WI by 11 ajd PA 5 specials, you guys lost WI by 11 in judge race abd aok 5 PA think again

[GeorgiaModerate]

Recent history suggests that Biden is probably going to outperform Congressional Democrats. Ever since 1996, the general election right after Congressional Democrats lost their grip on Southern states, Democratic Presidential candidates have outperformed Congressional Democrats in all but one general election: 2008.

1996 was Clinton+8.5% but D+0.1% in the House
2000 was Gore+0.5% but R+0.5% in the House
2004 was Bush+2.4% but R+2.6% in the House
2008 was Obama+7.2% but D+10.6% in the House (the one exception)
2012 was Obama+3.9% but D+1.2% in the House
2016 was Clinton+2.1% but R+1.1% in the House
2020 was Biden+4.5% but D+3.1% in the House

In 2020 when Biden barely outperformed Congressional Ds, Biden had a 52% favorability. Now he’s down to 40% approvals, while Rs have a speakership debacle under their belt. Also, our likely economic environment is similar to 2008, the exception year.

Anything is possible, but considering the current state of the economy, "likely" is only in your mind here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs don't want a Filibuster proof Trifecta that's all so Riverwalk has the same R talking pts Rprez and DS, it's inevitable even if we fall short a D Trifecta will happen in 28 with Gavin Newsom Johnson is gone in WI and Fetterman is gonna get reelected

[Brittain33]

In 2020 when Biden barely outperformed Congressional Ds, Biden had a 52% favorability. Now he’s down to 40% approvals, while Rs have a speakership debacle under their belt. Also, our likely economic environment is similar to 2008, the exception year.

Are you old enough to remember 2008? You must be joking. 2008 was a dress rehearsal for the performance of the economy in Q2 2020.

[ajc0918]

Democrats have a quality candidate in FL-13 against Anna Paulina Luna:

St. Petersburg Democrat Whitney Fox to run for congressional seat held by Anna Paulina Luna

A St. Petersburg Democrat and former Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority employee is running for the congressional seat held by Republican U.S. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, hoping to win what national Democrats see as a potential blue pickup in 2024.

Whitney Fox, 36, announced her campaign Tuesday for Florida’s 13th Congressional District, which includes most of Pinellas County. Fox worked as the director of communications and marketing for the transit authority but resigned effective Monday, the agency confirmed. She announced her campaign with the endorsement of former St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Kriseman.

Fox said in a statement that she sees the affordability crisis affecting Florida families and wants to help, noting that she is a mother of two young girls. She said politicians like Luna have “left us behind in pursuit of an extreme agenda.”

Article link: https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/elections/2023/10/24/anna-paulina-luna-congress-whitney-fox-psta-democrat-pinellas/

Campaign website: https://whitneyfoxforcongress.com/