2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

A good ad does not necessarily make someone a good candidate.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

A good ad does not necessarily make someone a good candidate.

Tell that to President Mike Gravel and Vice President giant rock!

[KaiserDave]

This is Kent's launch ad:

https://twitter.com/joekent16jan19/status/1706708177578762427
Does this really look like a weak candidate?

He already lost to her in an election he really should have had no business being defeated in. I'd say that makes him a bit weaker this time around.

Watch the advertisement itself. It looks much better than ie McCormick or Cao's launch ads, or any ad that DeSantis has been running.

Last time the party was not unified, as Kent was accused of being a Bernie Bro. Perez is also a weak candidate that gives off Hillary Clinton vibes.

Just say "woman" it is more honest.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

A good ad does not necessarily make someone a good candidate.

Where is the crazy white nationalist fascist that Joe Kent is supposed to be? The ad doesn't suggest that at all; he's mostly focused on things like cost of living, with the culture war issues limited to transgender men in women's sports at school.

[wbrocks67]

A good ad does not necessarily make someone a good candidate.

Where is the crazy white nationalist fascist that Joe Kent is supposed to be? The ad doesn't suggest that at all; he's mostly focused on things like cost of living, with the culture war issues limited to transgender men in women's sports at school.

Are we really basing entire candidacies off of one ad now? Come on.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

This is Kent's launch ad:

https://twitter.com/joekent16jan19/status/1706708177578762427
Does this really look like a weak candidate?

He already lost to her in an election he really should have had no business being defeated in. I'd say that makes him a bit weaker this time around.

Watch the advertisement itself. It looks much better than ie McCormick or Cao's launch ads, or any ad that DeSantis has been running.

Last time the party was not unified, as Kent was accused of being a Bernie Bro. Perez is also a weak candidate that gives off Hillary Clinton vibes.

Just say "woman" it is more honest.

Perez constantly screams fascist and white nationalist and hopes the attacks stick. She doesn't really emphasize many policy positions.

Mucarsel-Powell and Slotkin are candidates who I think are much stronger. Same with Ayotte on the Republican side.

[Spectator]

This is Kent's launch ad:

https://twitter.com/joekent16jan19/status/1706708177578762427
Does this really look like a weak candidate?

He already lost to her in an election he really should have had no business being defeated in. I'd say that makes him a bit weaker this time around.

Watch the advertisement itself. It looks much better than ie McCormick or Cao's launch ads, or any ad that DeSantis has been running.

Last time the party was not unified, as Kent was accused of being a Bernie Bro. Perez is also a weak candidate that gives off Hillary Clinton vibes.

Yes, Perez is so weak that she was one of the few people in American history to flip a seat for the President’s party in a midterm that her party’s president actually lost two years prior.

[Brittain33]

He’s using the “epic music” background track from TikTok. I’ve heard that a million times.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

This is Kent's launch ad:

https://twitter.com/joekent16jan19/status/1706708177578762427
Does this really look like a weak candidate?

He already lost to her in an election he really should have had no business being defeated in. I'd say that makes him a bit weaker this time around.

Watch the advertisement itself. It looks much better than ie McCormick or Cao's launch ads, or any ad that DeSantis has been running.

Last time the party was not unified, as Kent was accused of being a Bernie Bro. Perez is also a weak candidate that gives off Hillary Clinton vibes.

Yes, Perez is so weak that she was one of the few people in American history to flip a seat for the President’s party in a midterm that her party’s president actually lost two years prior.

It isn't actually that rare. We've seen Gwen Graham do the same in 2014.

[wbrocks67]

This is Kent's launch ad:

https://twitter.com/joekent16jan19/status/1706708177578762427
Does this really look like a weak candidate?

He already lost to her in an election he really should have had no business being defeated in. I'd say that makes him a bit weaker this time around.

Watch the advertisement itself. It looks much better than ie McCormick or Cao's launch ads, or any ad that DeSantis has been running.

Last time the party was not unified, as Kent was accused of being a Bernie Bro. Perez is also a weak candidate that gives off Hillary Clinton vibes.

Yes, Perez is so weak that she was one of the few people in American history to flip a seat for the President’s party in a midterm that her party’s president actually lost two years prior.

It isn't actually that rare. We've seen Gwen Graham do the same in 2014.

Apparently rare enough it didn't happen in 16, 18, or 20.

[Tekken_Guy]

This is Kent's launch ad:

https://twitter.com/joekent16jan19/status/1706708177578762427
Does this really look like a weak candidate?

He already lost to her in an election he really should have had no business being defeated in. I'd say that makes him a bit weaker this time around.

Watch the advertisement itself. It looks much better than ie McCormick or Cao's launch ads, or any ad that DeSantis has been running.

Last time the party was not unified, as Kent was accused of being a Bernie Bro. Perez is also a weak candidate that gives off Hillary Clinton vibes.

Yes, Perez is so weak that she was one of the few people in American history to flip a seat for the President’s party in a midterm that her party’s president actually lost two years prior.

It isn't actually that rare. We've seen Gwen Graham do the same in 2014.

Apparently rare enough it didn't happen in 16, 18, or 20.

Brad Ashford also did it in 2014. 2016 and 2020 are presidential years so they’re hard to apply, but Scott Garrett lost re-election at the same time as Trump was carrying his seat at the presidential level, and a lot of Biden seats in CA, and one in FL, saw D incumbents lose in 2020. 2018 only flipped two seats in rural Minnesota and a redrawn seat in PA.

[Spectator]

This is Kent's launch ad:

https://twitter.com/joekent16jan19/status/1706708177578762427
Does this really look like a weak candidate?

He already lost to her in an election he really should have had no business being defeated in. I'd say that makes him a bit weaker this time around.

Watch the advertisement itself. It looks much better than ie McCormick or Cao's launch ads, or any ad that DeSantis has been running.

Last time the party was not unified, as Kent was accused of being a Bernie Bro. Perez is also a weak candidate that gives off Hillary Clinton vibes.

Yes, Perez is so weak that she was one of the few people in American history to flip a seat for the President’s party in a midterm that her party’s president actually lost two years prior.

It isn't actually that rare. We've seen Gwen Graham do the same in 2014.

Apparently rare enough it didn't happen in 16, 18, or 20.

Brad Ashford also did it in 2014. 2016 and 2020 are presidential years so they’re hard to apply, but Scott Garrett lost re-election at the same time as Trump was carrying his seat at the presidential level, and a lot of Biden seats in CA, and one in FL, saw D incumbents lose in 2020. 2018 only flipped two seats in rural Minnesota and a redrawn seat in PA.

I am talking strictly about midterms. It didn’t happen at all in 2018, 2010, 2006, 1998, or 1994. I didn’t go back farther than that, but I think Sabato at UVA has had an article about it in the past.

Edit: it did happen in 1998 in KS-03, but when factoring in Dole’s home state advantage in 1996, that one can probably be written off as a fluke.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Brutal numbers for Republicans in the latest Pennsylvania poll-

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1707425270028746847?s=20

[wbrocks67]

Dems are also +4 on the generic ballot in that poll, 41-37

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/pocryphal/status/1708519454357754078
That honestly seems like a fairly underwhelming number. Kean will probably raise at least twice as much.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/pocryphal/status/1708519454357754078
That honestly seems like a fairly underwhelming number. Kean will probably raise at least twice as much.

Especially after IIRC she had such a strong start initially.  I wonder if support is consolidating around one of her primary opponents.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Brutal numbers for Republicans in the latest Pennsylvania poll-

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1707425270028746847?s=20

Shapiro is very popular, hence the higher Democratic numbers. That doesn't mean that Biden is popular here.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Brutal numbers for Republicans in the latest Pennsylvania poll-

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1707425270028746847?s=20

Shapiro is very popular, hence the higher Democratic numbers. That doesn't mean that Biden is popular here.

The bigger reason is they have an insane sample. They have 31% of voters identifying as liberal, compared to 25% in 2022 and 24% in 2020.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Brutal numbers for Republicans in the latest Pennsylvania poll-

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1707425270028746847?s=20

Shapiro is very popular, hence the higher Democratic numbers. That doesn't mean that Biden is popular here.

Though he will be an important surrogate in the state and could make a difference.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/jamesd0wns/status/1708905572005810666?t=aDY34F8yV4F5uIWF9vvv...

A not very surprising announcement. Honestly more surprising he ran for Gov in 2022 than congress.  A good recruit on paper, in practice he voted Trump both times while still technically a Dem, and had to make a lot of polarizing statements in 2022 to convince Republicans that he was actually one of them.

He also faces a district that voted Dem (all 3 voted dem actually) for all statewide races in 2022, even the Lt. Gov race they won by 4%.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1708919013387223395?t=eJKw1RqJ389u89F...

So in response to all the stuff that happened last week, the AZ crazy caucus started to make calls for a primary challenger to Ciscomani. Someone may have answered the call.

Winn ran in 2022 and got 18.7% in a 5-way primary.  She's ran in Maricopa before that, and while on a school board, tried very hard to politicize it.  She's previous been active with Tuscon TV, and when she ran in 2022, got endorsements from the usual state crazy politicians of note in before 2022. And she seemingly supports most of the radical proposals coming from that corner.

[Brittain33]

Oh hell, we’re going to get inane “WIN WITH WINN” signs, aren’t we?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1708919013387223395?t=eJKw1RqJ389u89F...

So in response to all the stuff that happened last week, the AZ crazy caucus started to make calls for a primary challenger to Ciscomani. Someone may have answered the call.

Winn ran in 2022 and got 18.7% in a 5-way primary.  She's ran in Maricopa before that, and while on a school board, tried very hard to politicize it.  She's previous been active with Tuscon TV, and when she ran in 2022, got endorsements from the usual state crazy politicians of note in before 2022. And she seemingly supports most of the radical proposals coming from that corner.

Ciscomani should be fine and I don't think he's at much risk of losing the primary. Schweikert, on the other hand could very well be taken down in a primary. He is pretty much the last of the old establishment politicians in power in AZ politics and obviously that causes friction with the base. The problem for MAGA though is that district represents the North Phoenix/Scottsdale areas which has a larger proportion of McCainites compared to the state, and those people are going to vote in droves to save him.  

[wbrocks67]

Solid Dem recruit in PA-10

https://twitter.com/TomLehmanWGAL/status/1709510833942741052

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Solid Dem recruit in PA-10

https://twitter.com/TomLehmanWGAL/status/1709510833942741052

This is the year, I feel it. Seriously though, he’s the chair of the freedom caucus, we need to use that title against him