2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

Interesting memo from the CLF: https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2023/08/08/CLF_2023_Summer_Memo.pdf

It acknowledges that the path to the House majority for both parties runs through deep blue states. Given the large number of competitive seats in CA and NY, plus more in others like NJ, OR, WA, this is definitely true.

Their section on PA (Wild and Cartwright) is just demonstrably false.

Neither of them are DOA but they are certainly not safe and Biden won't win PA by nearly as much as Shapiro did.

I'm talking about facts. Their memo states: "Susan Wild (PA-07: Biden +1) and Matt Cartwright (PA-08: Trump +3) only won because of top-of-ticket drag from Doug Mastriano. Their images are hobbled, and they’re strapped for cash after last cycle."

None of this is backed up by facts, especially the latter parts. Their images are not "hobbled" (where's the proof of this?) and they aren't "strapped for cash" because you can literally look at their FEC reports. Republicans blaming the entire thing on Mastriano and not their terrible candidates/messaging shows they've learned next to nothing.

[BigZuck08]

Interesting memo from the CLF: https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2023/08/08/CLF_2023_Summer_Memo.pdf

It acknowledges that the path to the House majority for both parties runs through deep blue states. Given the large number of competitive seats in CA and NY, plus more in others like NJ, OR, WA, this is definitely true.

Their section on PA (Wild and Cartwright) is just demonstrably false.

Neither of them are DOA but they are certainly not safe and Biden won't win PA by nearly as much as Shapiro did.

I'm talking about facts. Their memo states: "Susan Wild (PA-07: Biden +1) and Matt Cartwright (PA-08: Trump +3) only won because of top-of-ticket drag from Doug Mastriano. Their images are hobbled, and they’re strapped for cash after last cycle."

None of this is backed up by facts, especially the latter parts. Their images are not "hobbled" (where's the proof of this?) and they aren't "strapped for cash" because you can literally look at their FEC reports. Republicans blaming the entire thing on Mastriano and not their terrible candidates/messaging shows they've learned next to nothing.

As a resident of PA-08 and a former resident of PA-07, I can confirm this is accurate.

Bognet and Scheller were flawed candidates and if Rs want a chance to flip these seats, they need a serious candidate.

[Landslide Lyndon]

As a resident of PA-08 and a former resident of PA-07, I can confirm this is accurate.

Bognet and Scheller were flawed candidates and if Rs want a chance to flip these seats, they need a serious candidate.

A "serious" Republican candidate is increasingly becoming an oxymoron.

[Pericles]

Shapiro's margin meant nothing for Democrats running on other tickets-it's not like Charlie Baker carried Massachusetts Republicans or JBE got down ballot Democrats over the line. Gubernatorial elections do not reflect the partisanship of a state that well. Senate elections are a bit closer but even then are candidate-specific, it's not like Manchin and Tester have been carrying other Democrats with them.

Republicans would absolutely have flipped these seats if the midterms were a wave at the nationwide level. That is what the midterms were 'supposed' to be-Biden at 40% approval and inflation was the highest in decades, that's certainly a worse starting point than Trump's booming economy in 2018 when he lost 40 House seats. 2022 and these seats went a different way because the Republican Party is so toxic that most swing voters who somewhat disapproved of Biden couldn't bring themselves to vote Republican.

[wbrocks67]

Cygnal: tied 45-45

https://www.cygn.al/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Cygnal-August-National-Deck.pdf

YouGov/Economist: D+2, 44-42

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/p07c7zdka6/econTabReport.pdf

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/ercovey/status/1686053589205004290

Aside from WV and PA, these are generally fair.

Likely R Texas and Tilt R WV?

Tilt D Pennsylvania and Lean D Wisconsin?

This is nonsense.

[MT Treasurer]

When Manchin gets blown out of the water by 20+ points (if he’s narcissistic enough to go through with this) and Cruz ends up having a close call, they’ll just say that the trajectory of those races changed dramatically and that they weren’t actually wrong with their ratings in late 2023/early 2024 (when it’s already obvious to anyone with a brain that TX is far more likely to go D than WV).

This happens every single time and every single time they get away with it.

[wbrocks67]

When Manchin gets blown out of the water by 20+ points (if he’s narcissistic enough to go through with this) and Cruz ends up having a close call, they’ll just say that the trajectory of those races changed dramatically and that they weren’t actually wrong with their ratings in late 2023/early 2024 (when it’s already obvious to anyone with a brain that TX is far more likely to go D than WV).

This happens every single time and every single time they get away with it.

Yep, it's the same thing with AZ-SEN for example last year. The pundits basically ran the whole "Oh it got really close at the end" when in reality.... it likely never was to begin with. Especially egregious examples were CO-SEN and WA-SEN when pundits also did the whole "Bennet and Murray had a scare..." no, in reality, they were likely *never* even in *slightly* danger.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/fineout/status/1690459097756209152?t=qjHIkSQQsK0G2hJ7e0PqDQ&...

Not sure if this counts as recruitment,  but AL Lawson intends to return to the now seemingly very likely to be redrawn, in light of this agreement between the legal parties,  north Florida AA seat.


Also, Joe Kent seems likely to be renominated against MGP in WA-03...

https://twitter.com/dospueblos/status/1690444092776546305?t=yWSlsr2Euz-1RXW4Pq-v...

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1691879205099721104?s=20

[wbrocks67]

YouGov/Economist at D+2, 44-42 again for GCB this week

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/mercuri4pa/status/1691437164414865410

State Rep. running in PA-17. Tough seat, but apparently he outran Oz by something like 15 points.

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult launches its 2024 GCB tracker. Ds start at +2, 45-43

https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/2024-generic-ballot-august-2023?utm_content=organic_post&utm_medium=organic_social&utm_source=social_media&utm_campaign=generic_ballot

[Spectator]

Mary Peltola is the most popular Alaska politician. 54-30 job approval

https://twitter.com/ivanmoore1/status/1692288839665213761?s=46

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I can't wait til Eday to catch Rs to wrong again just like they always are
White females, blks and Latinos since IAN have moved away from Rs especially in FL where Deegan won Jax FL race because DeSantis is removing  blk female prosecutors that even Latino men find offensive and Scott is up 16 like Rubio he is up only 45/41 and Cruz is only up 42/37

There is nothing in the Hunter Biden story except a gun charge and he didn't pay his taxes like Trump it's a nothing burger

[Progressive Pessimist]

Mary Peltola is the most popular Alaska politician. 54-30 job approval

https://twitter.com/ivanmoore1/status/1692288839665213761?s=46

Queen and possible Senator in 2026!

[Spectator]

Mary Peltola is the most popular Alaska politician. 54-30 job approval

https://twitter.com/ivanmoore1/status/1692288839665213761?s=46

Queen and possible Senator in 2026!

I don’t think it’d be smart to go in 2026. Probably 2028 when Murkowski probably retires. She knows she’s not winning a primary again when RCV is likely repealed.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Mary Peltola is the most popular Alaska politician. 54-30 job approval

https://twitter.com/ivanmoore1/status/1692288839665213761?s=46

Queen and possible Senator in 2026!

I don’t think it’d be smart to go in 2026. Probably 2028 when Murkowski probably retires. She knows she’s not winning a primary again when RCV is likely repealed.

I guess it would depend on who is in the White House. In a Trump midterm she could definitely pull it off.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Allred can win he is half white like Ford how do you think Obama became Prez because of Harold Ford but Ford lived in TN and also ALLRED doesn't stutter like Beto that's why I say rating are meaningless until Sept 24

Gloria Johnson can win. But we don't have to win TN, MO but KS is flippable because all Biden has to do is win 6 counties

[wbrocks67]

YouGov/Economist has GCB at D+3, 45-42

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/qaelwix52p/econTabReport.pdf

[wbrocks67]

When you've lost HarrisX...

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1694931151314366766?s=20

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is getting stronger not weaker , Conserv think Trump is getting stronger no he's not in the R primary not GE


Do users know the difference between Conserv and Liberal Conserv means to dilute Social programs in lieu of tax cuts for people making over 400 K

As we get closer to Eday as my Poli Sci teacher said already voters are gonna come towardss Biden not towards Trump Trump needs to get started on the Trump and Pence Library

[Roll Roons]

Hmm: https://twitter.com/BecauseMiami/status/1695051876926959860

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Plse note it's a 303 map but once the Trials open up about how bad Trump tried to steal Eday it will be a landslide, but make no mistake about it we are at the same place we were in 20 not 2008 or 22, the 22 Eday it was a neutral yr but country slide right on NV and WI due to the IAN


There is no evidence out against Trump except in Grand jury format not jury format

[Pollster]

Hmm: https://twitter.com/BecauseMiami/status/1695051876926959860

Both are incredibly popular - Cava probably just runs for Gimenez's open seat instead.