2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/SJVSun/status/1683527717046632449?s=20

Seeing a bunch of Twitter (X?) commentary that is very off base; not that I suspect anything here would be comparable, but I thought I'd head it off nevertheless. Hurtado's district is basically a bigger, and therefore less blue, CA-22; her winning her Biden+8 seat while Newsom lost it by double digits, even if the win was narrow, in 2022 was extremely impressive. Probably the best possible recruit for this seat.

I would have expected her to wait until 2026 when she’s termed out. If she wins in 2024 she’ll leave behind a Biden+8 State Senate district that’ll be very hard for Democrats to hold onto given how awful Hispanic turnout is in these types of election. Case in point, Mike Garcia 2020.

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/SJVSun/status/1683527717046632449?s=20

Seeing a bunch of Twitter (X?) commentary that is very off base; not that I suspect anything here would be comparable, but I thought I'd head it off nevertheless. Hurtado's district is basically a bigger, and therefore less blue, CA-22; her winning her Biden+8 seat while Newsom lost it by double digits, even if the win was narrow, in 2022 was extremely impressive. Probably the best possible recruit for this seat.

I would have expected her to wait until 2026 when she’s termed out. If she wins in 2024 she’ll leave behind a Biden+8 State Senate district that’ll be very hard for Democrats to hold onto given how awful Hispanic turnout is in these types of election. Case in point, Mike Garcia 2020.

She’s not termed out until 2030. She probably saw 2024 as a no-risk, high-reward free shot without having to give up her seat. And probably doesn’t really care if the seat is lost in a special if she were to win the House seat.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/SJVSun/status/1683527717046632449?s=20

Seeing a bunch of Twitter (X?) commentary that is very off base; not that I suspect anything here would be comparable, but I thought I'd head it off nevertheless. Hurtado's district is basically a bigger, and therefore less blue, CA-22; her winning her Biden+8 seat while Newsom lost it by double digits, even if the win was narrow, in 2022 was extremely impressive. Probably the best possible recruit for this seat.

I would have expected her to wait until 2026 when she’s termed out. If she wins in 2024 she’ll leave behind a Biden+8 State Senate district that’ll be very hard for Democrats to hold onto given how awful Hispanic turnout is in these types of election. Case in point, Mike Garcia 2020.

She’s not termed out until 2030. She probably saw 2024 as a no-risk, high-reward free shot without having to give up her seat. And probably doesn’t really care if the seat is lost in a special if she were to win the House seat.

That was my mistake. I thought California term limits were 8 years, not 12.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1681669011707142151

Though it should be noted that a lot of times, primary internals can be very unreliable.

I support Liz and the inevitable Whitmer family political dynasty.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1684012215064727552

Local State Rep. running in the highly competitive PA-07

[Roll Roons]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/07/29/steve-womack-arkansas-considers-retirement/

Rep. Steve Womack (AR-03) considering retirement. This district is Safe R in 2024, but is potentially worth watching as a sleeper further down the road.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/07/29/steve-womack-arkansas-considers-retirement/

Rep. Steve Womack (AR-03) considering retirement. This district is Safe R in 2024, but is potentially worth watching as a sleeper further down the road.

Too bad   Womack always seemed like one of the saner folks in the Caucus and at least someone whose natural instincts were more inclined towards actually governing.  I mean, he’s still a House Republican, but you can work with folks like that.

[Spectator]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/07/29/steve-womack-arkansas-considers-retirement/

Rep. Steve Womack (AR-03) considering retirement. This district is Safe R in 2024, but is potentially worth watching as a sleeper further down the road.

Even with Washington County becoming a new swing county, seems like the rest of the district  isn’t really making any discernible trends blue. Kind of like how there’s a few random blue trending counties in MD-01 like Talbot, but that’s not going to ever result in it flipping unless they gerrymander the district.

[Roll Roons]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/07/29/steve-womack-arkansas-considers-retirement/

Rep. Steve Womack (AR-03) considering retirement. This district is Safe R in 2024, but is potentially worth watching as a sleeper further down the road.

Too bad   Womack always seemed like one of the saner folks in the Caucus and at least someone whose natural instincts were more inclined towards actually governing.  I mean, he’s still a House Republican, but you can work with folks like that.

Never mind:
https://twitter.com/rep_stevewomack/status/1685332770241773568

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/ercovey/status/1686053589205004290

Aside from WV and PA, these are generally fair.

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/ercovey/status/1686053589205004290
Aside from WV and PA, these are generally fair.

West Virginia is much more likely to be competitive than Texas? Who pays for this garbage

[wbrocks67]

And why is PA "Tilt D" while WI/MI are "Lean D"?

[Xing]

Inside Elections continues to be the worst among the prognosticators. There may exist a universe in which Pennsylvania is only Tilt D, and perhaps I can create a fictional universe in which West Virginia is Tilt R, but there is no universe in which both are true.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

For the love of God, Pennsylvania is not "Tilt D" and it's certainly not more likely to flip than open seat Michigan. Did they somehow miss the news that Casey is running?

It seems like prognosticators this cycle have been unusually bearish on Casey's chances for some unknown, bizarre reason. The guy has literally never won an election by less than 9 points and the Republicans don't have a viable candidate. There is no realistic scenario in which he loses, and any rating that puts the race anywhere less than Likely D should be discarded and ignored.

[politicallefty]

I'll echo the above. Even if Trump wins PA, it's not hard to see Casey run at least a few points ahead of the top of the ticket. Pennsylvania is the most deserving on that list to be in the Likely category except perhaps WV.

[Tekken_Guy]

I'll echo the above. Even if Trump wins PA, it's not hard to see Casey run at least a few points ahead of the top of the ticket. Pennsylvania is the most deserving on that list to be in the Likely category except perhaps WV.

With this latest indictment it’s more likely Trump isn’t the nominee than it is that he wins Pennsylvania.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

LIKELY D AZ, OH
Tossup MT and TX
Competetive MO, TN AND FL
LEAN R WV

Balance of power 49 tie MT and TX tossup

[Roll Roons]

It's official: https://twitter.com/dani__battaglia/status/1687094012904198144

[Pollster]

Expect to see Democrats try to meddle in this primary.

https://twitter.com/WashTimes/status/1687843401637453824?s=20

[Lambsbread]

Expect to see Democrats try to meddle in this primary.

https://twitter.com/WashTimes/status/1687843401637453824?s=20

Mwahahahaha 😈

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1688571406433320961

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1688556098041659392?s=20

[Roll Roons]

Interesting memo from the CLF: https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2023/08/08/CLF_2023_Summer_Memo.pdf

It acknowledges that the path to the House majority for both parties runs through deep blue states. Given the large number of competitive seats in CA and NY, plus more in others like NJ, OR, WA, this is definitely true.

[wbrocks67]

Interesting memo from the CLF: https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2023/08/08/CLF_2023_Summer_Memo.pdf

It acknowledges that the path to the House majority for both parties runs through deep blue states. Given the large number of competitive seats in CA and NY, plus more in others like NJ, OR, WA, this is definitely true.

Their section on PA (Wild and Cartwright) is just demonstrably false.

[Roll Roons]

Interesting memo from the CLF: https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2023/08/08/CLF_2023_Summer_Memo.pdf

It acknowledges that the path to the House majority for both parties runs through deep blue states. Given the large number of competitive seats in CA and NY, plus more in others like NJ, OR, WA, this is definitely true.

Their section on PA (Wild and Cartwright) is just demonstrably false.

Neither of them are DOA but they are certainly not safe and Biden won't win PA by nearly as much as Shapiro did.