MI-SEN 2024 Megathread - Meijer out

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1719732696186777882

Looks Like Meijer getting in. Would be a strong GE candidate should he get there. (primary will be difficult)

Super weird that this race has multiple solid to decent candidates but there is seemingly no one in WI

Open seat dynamics are naturally better for prospective candidates. If I was the NRSC, I would triage Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and go all in on this race and Ohio in the midwest.

Yeah, Republicans are lucky Stabenow is a decade older than Baldwin and Casey.

Stabenow is actually a weaker incumbent as well. Even if she was running for re-election, Michigan would still be an easier flip than the other two.

I'd argue it would be even easier, because you can argue "It's time for someone new!" and she doesn't seem to reach out to the center like Slotkin does

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/VoteMeijer/status/1721481674293219654
It'll be a hell of a hard road for him, but endorsed nonetheless.

[wbrocks67]

LMAO, "moderate" my ass - of course now that he needs to win a primary, Joe Biden is worse than the insurrection, somehow.

https://twitter.com/samueljrob/status/1721521074901336497

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Slotkin wins that's why Stabenow retired to give Slotkin a better shot against Mejer, Stabenow was clearly vulnerable to Mejer but she still would have won

[Zedonathin2020]

Guy couldn’t even win his own primary, how does he expect to win the entire state??

[Vosem]

Would make it Leans R outright if he could win the primary, actually, but really hard to imagine him winning the primary. Also kind of a dumb race for him to run, because while he clearly has a future in the post-Trump era when no one cares about 2021, and that vote is easy to cash in for moderate points, that future is just not here yet.

If he's determined to run for something, he should run for Mayor of Grand Rapids, or his old congressional seat, or something like that.

Guy couldn’t even win his own primary, how does he expect to win the entire state??

In fairness he actually did the best in his own primary of all the Republicans who voted to impeach by raw percentage; Valadao and Newhouse only won their nominations because their opponents were disunited. My understanding is that within his district, his efforts to campaign for Gibbs (who he apparently personally got along pretty well with) after losing the primary actually mended a lot of fences, and he's not dead in the water in his local area. That said, I don't think he's mended fences with Trump himself, and I don't know if this is even possible, and that's what it would take to just be competitive statewide, much less win, in 2024. Also the NRSC wants Rogers, and candidates from western Michigan rarely win statewide primaries; Grand Rapids versus Lansing may not feel like a large advantage for Lansing but it really is.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Would make it Leans R outright if he could win the primary, actually, but really hard to imagine him winning the primary. Also kind of a dumb race for him to run, because while he clearly has a future in the post-Trump era when no one cares about 2021, and that vote is easy to cash in for moderate points, that future is just not here yet.

If he's determined to run for something, he should run for Mayor of Grand Rapids, or his old congressional seat, or something like that.

Guy couldn’t even win his own primary, how does he expect to win the entire state??

In fairness he actually did the best in his own primary of all the Republicans who voted to impeach by raw percentage; Valadao and Newhouse only won their nominations because their opponents were disunited. My understanding is that within his district, his efforts to campaign for Gibbs (who he apparently personally got along pretty well with) after losing the primary actually mended a lot of fences, and he's not dead in the water in his local area. That said, I don't think he's mended fences with Trump himself, and I don't know if this is even possible, and that's what it would take to just be competitive statewide, much less win, in 2024. Also the NRSC wants Rogers, and candidates from western Michigan rarely win statewide primaries; Grand Rapids versus Lansing may not feel like a large advantage for Lansing but it really is.

Emerson had Mejer losing to Slotkin 45/38 sorry but Mejer will lose I posted the poll a while back

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1721553131463434504

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The balance of Power in S in 48/50 and 2 anyways coming down  to OH, MT


LEAN D PA, WI, MI
LEAN R TX, MO, FL, WV

[Senator Incitatus]

Wow! Joe O’Dea could certainly make Colorado competitive. This result is a big win for Republicans.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

DOA in the primary

[Tekken_Guy]

DOA in the primary

Not really. He has a chance of sneaking through a clown car.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

DOA in the primary

Not really. He has a chance of sneaking through a clown car.

He couldn't win a primary in Grand Rapids where his name is royalty. He won't get more than 15% of the primary vote, even a clown car can't help him.

[Nyvin]

DOA in the primary

Not really. He has a chance of sneaking through a clown car.

Not with Mike Rogers in as well,  Meijer will be one of the clowns.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's Lean D anyways

[Unelectable Bystander]

First you allow 4 statewide losers to run in 4 different states. A 5th was about to run until you convinced him to back a Connecticut resident. Then you fail to recruit a single statewide officeholder in a state 20 points to the right of the country. Fail to recruit a single person in a state you won in 2022.

Finally you are gifted 2 A or B tier candidates in an open seat race and you shun both in favor of a person that hasn’t served in Congress in years. Truly amazing incompetence.

[Senator Incitatus]

Truly amazing incompetence.

It's not incompetence. Nobody wants to work with McConnell and competent people generally aren't interested in public office to begin with.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I'm honestly impressed that the MI GOP has found decent candidates. Mike Rogers, James Craig, and Peter Meijer are all solid recruits.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

LOL yep, absolutely DOA in the primary. Plus look at that whackjob he lost to in his House primary. Shouldn't have even been close.

[Tekken_Guy]

LOL yep, absolutely DOA in the primary. Plus look at that whackjob he lost to in his House primary. Shouldn't have even been close.

What is his ceiling in the primary?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

LOL yep, absolutely DOA in the primary. Plus look at that whackjob he lost to in his House primary. Shouldn't have even been close.

What is his ceiling in the primary?

Maybe like 20%.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1721553131463434504

Idiots. Craig and Meijer are stronger than Rogers

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Would make it Leans R outright if he could win the primary, actually, but really hard to imagine him winning the primary. Also kind of a dumb race for him to run, because while he clearly has a future in the post-Trump era when no one cares about 2021, and that vote is easy to cash in for moderate points, that future is just not here yet.

If he's determined to run for something, he should run for Mayor of Grand Rapids, or his old congressional seat, or something like that.

Guy couldn’t even win his own primary, how does he expect to win the entire state??

In fairness he actually did the best in his own primary of all the Republicans who voted to impeach by raw percentage; Valadao and Newhouse only won their nominations because their opponents were disunited. My understanding is that within his district, his efforts to campaign for Gibbs (who he apparently personally got along pretty well with) after losing the primary actually mended a lot of fences, and he's not dead in the water in his local area. That said, I don't think he's mended fences with Trump himself, and I don't know if this is even possible, and that's what it would take to just be competitive statewide, much less win, in 2024. Also the NRSC wants Rogers, and candidates from western Michigan rarely win statewide primaries; Grand Rapids versus Lansing may not feel like a large advantage for Lansing but it really is.

What about Craig? He's literally god tier on paper, why wouldn't they want him? Is it because of his campaign failure last year?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Would make it Leans R outright if he could win the primary, actually, but really hard to imagine him winning the primary. Also kind of a dumb race for him to run, because while he clearly has a future in the post-Trump era when no one cares about 2021, and that vote is easy to cash in for moderate points, that future is just not here yet.

If he's determined to run for something, he should run for Mayor of Grand Rapids, or his old congressional seat, or something like that.

Guy couldn’t even win his own primary, how does he expect to win the entire state??

In fairness he actually did the best in his own primary of all the Republicans who voted to impeach by raw percentage; Valadao and Newhouse only won their nominations because their opponents were disunited. My understanding is that within his district, his efforts to campaign for Gibbs (who he apparently personally got along pretty well with) after losing the primary actually mended a lot of fences, and he's not dead in the water in his local area. That said, I don't think he's mended fences with Trump himself, and I don't know if this is even possible, and that's what it would take to just be competitive statewide, much less win, in 2024. Also the NRSC wants Rogers, and candidates from western Michigan rarely win statewide primaries; Grand Rapids versus Lansing may not feel like a large advantage for Lansing but it really is.

What about Craig? He's literally god tier on paper, why wouldn't they want him? Is it because of his campaign failure last year?

Rs won't win this race the balance of power is a split Sen which Brown and Tester will overperformrned Biden and win 51/49 in OH and MT



Lean D PA, MI, WI, VA 48
Tossup/Tilt D AZ, NV, OH, MT 2
Lean R WV, FL, TX. 50

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/dabbs346/status/1721508691285832024

How to alienate all components of your party at once.